Core Viewpoint - TianKang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. continues to face declining performance in the first three quarters of the year, with high accounts receivable and low capacity utilization, raising concerns from regulatory authorities regarding its expansion plans [1] Financial Performance - Revenue and net profit have declined for two consecutive years, with revenues of 1 billion yuan, 1.055 billion yuan, and 1.052 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, and net profits of 204 million yuan, 165 million yuan, and 153 million yuan during the same period, reflecting year-on-year declines of 18.36% and 11.20% respectively [3] - For the first nine months of 2025, the company reported a year-on-year revenue decline of 20.49% and a net profit decline of 42.44%, while comparable companies in the industry saw average revenue growth of 1.60% and net profit growth of 49.06% [4] Accounts Receivable - The company's accounts receivable at the end of the reporting periods were 338 million yuan, 377 million yuan, and 364 million yuan, accounting for 10.40%, 10.70%, and 10.95% of total assets respectively [7] - As of June 2025, accounts receivable stood at 482 million yuan, with 72.32% from government procurement clients, and overdue amounts from direct sales and distribution clients totaling 42.81 million yuan [7] Capacity Utilization and Expansion Plans - The company plans to raise 527 million yuan for various projects, including 128 million yuan for the expansion of veterinary vaccine production and 105 million yuan for the renovation of brucellosis vaccine production [9] - The current production capacity for brucellosis vaccine is 150 million doses, with capacity utilization rates of 36.02%, 43.72%, 44.44%, and 34.61% over the reporting period [11] - Regulatory authorities have questioned the necessity and rationale for expanding production given the low overall capacity utilization and have requested further analysis of market demand for the new capacity [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price based on the last closing price of 10.62 [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.042 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 161 million yuan, a decrease of 4.85% year-on-year. In Q3 2025 alone, revenue was 423 million yuan, up 17.76% year-on-year, and net profit was 101 million yuan, an increase of 116.40% year-on-year [4][5] - The core products continue to see significant growth, particularly in the swine vaccine segment, with sales of foot-and-mouth disease vaccines increasing by 50% year-on-year, and diarrhea vaccines seeing a 120% increase in revenue. The company is also making steady progress in developing new vaccines, including a novel mRNA vaccine for feline infectious peritonitis [5][7] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 1.569 billion yuan for 2025, 1.851 billion yuan for 2026, and 2.073 billion yuan for 2027, with net profits projected at 283 million yuan, 320 million yuan, and 335 million yuan respectively. The corresponding EPS for these years is expected to be 0.25 yuan, 0.29 yuan, and 0.30 yuan, with PE ratios of 42.57, 37.67, and 35.91 respectively [5][7][9] - The gross margin is projected to be 54.00% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 18.03% [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a steady growth in revenue and net profit, with Q1-Q3 2025 revenue at 823 million yuan (up 8.04% year-on-year) and net profit at 157 million yuan (up 47.86% year-on-year). The Q3 revenue was 264 million yuan (down 5.39% year-on-year), while net profit was 41 million yuan (up 26.69% year-on-year). The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 205 million, 233 million, and 281 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.59, 0.67, and 0.81 yuan, leading to a PE ratio of 23.3, 20.5, and 17.0 times [3][4][5] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company's revenue from biological products was 589 million yuan (up 3.88% year-on-year), with pig-related revenue at 203 million yuan (down 19.67% year-on-year) and poultry-related revenue at 369 million yuan (up 22.71% year-on-year). The pharmaceutical segment generated 188 million yuan (up 19.91% year-on-year), with pet-related revenue at 15 million yuan (up 39.73% year-on-year) [4] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 60.46% (down 2.69 percentage points year-on-year), while the net margin improved to 19.09% (up 5.14 percentage points year-on-year). The expense ratio decreased to 31.24% (down 7.16 percentage points), with sales, management, and financial expense ratios at 22.39%, 8.92%, and -0.07% respectively [5] - R&D expenses for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 67 million yuan, with new veterinary drug registrations continuing to support innovation [5] Valuation Metrics - The company's total market capitalization is 4.776 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 13.80 yuan. The stock has a 52-week high of 15.79 yuan and a low of 11.28 yuan [1] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 1.216 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.7%. The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 205 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery from the previous year's decline [7][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a recovery in performance, with a focus on the orderly advancement of non-epidemic vaccine clinical trials. The revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 1.042 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 161 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.85%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 423 million yuan, up 17.76% year-on-year, and net profit increased significantly by 116.40% year-on-year [2][3] - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 188 million yuan, 352 million yuan, and 508 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.17 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.46 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 65.4, 35.0, and 24.3 times for the respective years [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.042 billion yuan, a 7.38% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 161 million yuan, down 4.85% year-on-year. Q3 revenue was 423 million yuan, up 17.76% year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 116.40% year-on-year [2] - The company forecasts net profits of 188 million yuan in 2025, 352 million yuan in 2026, and 508 million yuan in 2027, with EPS projected at 0.17 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.46 yuan respectively [2][3] Market Position and Growth - The company is expanding its market share in the competitive pig vaccine sector, with Q1-Q3 2025 sales of pig foot-and-mouth disease vaccines increasing by 50% year-on-year. The revenue from non-foot-and-mouth vaccines also saw significant growth, with diarrhea vaccine revenue up 120% year-on-year [3] - Direct sales channels for poultry vaccines showed strong performance, with a 40% year-on-year increase in direct sales revenue. The company is also expanding its international business, with revenue growth exceeding 16 million yuan in Q1-Q3 2025 [3] Research and Development - The company emphasizes stable operations and innovation in R&D, with R&D expenses of 96 million yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a 9.08% increase year-on-year. The non-epidemic vaccine development is progressing, with the first clinical trial expected to begin by the end of December 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - TianKang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is undergoing a review process for its IPO application on the Beijing Stock Exchange, addressing inquiries related to its R&D model, technical independence, performance decline risks, and industry policy impacts [1] Group 1: Company Overview - TianKang Pharmaceutical specializes in the R&D, production, sales, and technical transfer of veterinary biological products, including vaccines for pigs, ruminants, poultry, and diagnostic reagents [1] - The company is controlled by TianKang Biology, which holds 58.94% of the shares, while the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps holds an additional 68.94% of the total shares [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue for the years 2022 to 2024 was reported as 1 billion, 1.055 billion, and 1.051 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits declining from 197 million to 143 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 18.36% and 11.20% for 2023 and 2024 [1] - Gross profit margins decreased from 63.83% in 2022 to 61.56% in 2024 [1] Group 3: Sales Model and Revenue Sources - The sales model consists of government procurement and market-based sales, with government procurement revenue of 564 million, 553 million, 520 million, and 268 million yuan from 2022 to the first half of 2025, accounting for 56.42%, 52.46%, 49.43%, and 52.96% of total revenue, respectively [2] - The company noted that while overall revenue remained stable, net profit and gross margins experienced declines due to intense competition in the pig vaccine market and fluctuations in sales of ruminant vaccines [2] Group 4: Accounts Receivable and Bad Debt Provisions - Accounts receivable at the end of each reporting period were 381 million, 450 million, and 452 million yuan, representing 38.14%, 42.70%, and 42.98% of revenue, respectively [3] - The majority of accounts receivable were from government procurement clients, which typically have longer payment cycles due to local fiscal conditions [4] Group 5: IPO Fundraising and Project Allocation - The company aims to raise 527 million yuan through its IPO, with allocations for various projects including 128 million for vaccine R&D and production expansion, 105 million for brucellosis vaccine upgrades, and 76 million for a zoonotic disease vaccine research center [4][5] Group 6: Production Capacity and Utilization - The company reported stable increases in live vaccine capacity utilization from 2022 to 2024, while inactivated vaccine utilization remained stable, with a noted decrease in the first half of 2025 due to competitive pressures [6][7] - The company’s production capacity for inactivated vaccines is high due to historical design considerations, leading to lower utilization rates as market demands shift [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue increase of 12.63% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, achieving a total revenue of 2.793 billion yuan and a net profit of 82 million yuan, reflecting a 30.19% increase year-on-year [7] - The performance of the biological products segment is recovering, while the chemical medicine segment is experiencing rapid growth [7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 6.443 billion yuan, 6.834 billion yuan, and 7.264 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 194 million yuan, 242 million yuan, and 317 million yuan respectively [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): 2023A: 5,406, 2024A: 6,017, 2025E: 6,443, 2026E: 6,834, 2027E: 7,264 [6] - Net profit (in million yuan): 2023A: 403, 2024A: 71, 2025E: 194, 2026E: 242, 2027E: 317 [6] - EPS (in yuan): 2023A: 0.39, 2024A: 0.07, 2025E: 0.19, 2026E: 0.24, 2027E: 0.31 [6] - PE ratios: 2025E: 39.8, 2026E: 32.0, 2027E: 24.4 [6] Business Segment Performance - The biological products segment saw a revenue decline of 7.86% to 450 million yuan in the first half of 2025, while the chemical medicine segment's revenue increased by 57.36% to 999 million yuan [7] - The company launched six new products in the pet business during the first half of 2025 [7] - Export revenue increased by 24.5% to 195 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [7] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 17.20%, with a net margin of 3.19% [7] - The company expects to improve its profitability with projected net profit margins of 2.6%, 3.1%, and 3.8% from 2025 to 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is accelerating the research and development of non-epidemic vaccines, with strong growth momentum from multiple new products [3][5] - Despite short-term pressure on performance, the company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 188 million, 352 million, and 508 million yuan respectively [3][4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 54.2, 29.0, and 20.1 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue was 620 million yuan (up 1.28% year-on-year), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 60 million yuan (down 50.84% year-on-year) [3][4] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 268 million yuan (up 1.58% year-on-year), with a net profit of -16 million yuan [3][4] - The company’s R&D expenses in the first half of 2025 were 73 million yuan, an increase of 25.62% year-on-year [5] Product Development - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure, with significant growth in core products such as non-foot-and-mouth disease vaccines, which saw revenue growth exceeding 20% [4] - The company has established a dedicated technical service team for poultry vaccines, leading to a nearly 40% year-on-year increase in revenue from key poultry vaccine products [4] - The company is also expanding its overseas market presence, with sales of pig foot-and-mouth disease vaccines in Vietnam doubling year-on-year [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights a reversal in the pig farming dilemma, indicating a potential recovery in the industry due to policy-driven capacity adjustments and supply reductions [2][8]. - The current pig cycle is in a de-stocking phase, with the number of breeding sows in China decreasing from a peak of 41.42 million in 2024 to 40.43 million in June 2025, a decline of approximately 2.4% [22][23]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has set a target to reduce the breeding sow population by about 1 million heads, aiming for a total of 39.5 million [22][23]. Group 2 - Short-term pig prices are expected to decline due to reduced second fattening and seasonal demand, but a long-term increase is anticipated if the breeding sow population stabilizes below 39.5 million [26][29]. - As of July 25, 2025, the profit from self-breeding pig farming was 62.16 yuan per head, a decrease of 31.61% from the previous week, while the loss from purchasing piglets expanded to 71.39 yuan per head [32][33]. - The report emphasizes that large-scale enterprises will have more stable profitability compared to smallholders due to cost advantages and industry chain synergies [32]. Group 3 - The report identifies two key companies in the pig farming industry: Yongshun Biological and Dayu Biological, detailing their business models and market positions [3][35]. - Yongshun Biological focuses on the research, production, and sales of veterinary biological products, with over 30 types of vaccines for pigs and poultry, maintaining over 90% of its revenue from vaccine sales [3][37]. - Dayu Biological specializes in feed additives and veterinary drugs, with its feed additive and feed businesses accounting for 65.39% and 29.74% of its revenue, respectively [50][56]. Group 4 - The report provides an overview of the pig farming industry chain, which includes upstream breeding, feed production, and veterinary supplies, midstream modern farming practices, and downstream processing and distribution [21][24]. - The entire industry chain is heavily influenced by technological advancements, management practices, disease control, and is subject to environmental regulations and government oversight [21][24].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The animal vaccine sector has seen a significant rise, with a market increase of approximately 2.91% as of July 16, 2023 [1] - The animal vaccine market is divided into two main categories: pet vaccines and livestock vaccines [1] - The pet vaccine market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by an increase in pet ownership and rising consumer spending, with the market size expected to exceed 345.3 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The penetration rate of pet vaccines remains low, indicating substantial growth potential as pet owners become more health-conscious [1] Group 2: Livestock Vaccine Insights - In the context of the current "anti-involution" trend in pig farming, about 30% of pig companies have achieved over 50% of their annual output targets [2] - Major pig companies are implementing policies such as reducing breeding sows and controlling weight to enhance efficiency and disease prevention [2] - The demand for vaccines is expected to grow steadily alongside the development of the livestock industry, particularly due to the need for disease control against outbreaks like African swine fever [2] Group 3: Company Profiles - **Shengwu Co., Ltd.**: Focuses on the research, production, and sales of veterinary biological products, including vaccines for pigs, ruminants, poultry, and pets [2] - **Reap Bio**: A high-tech enterprise dedicated to providing solutions for disease prevention, treatment, and healthy breeding in the animal health industry [2] - **Kexing Pharmaceutical**: Engaged in animal vaccine research and development with a focus on zoonotic disease prevention [3] - **Puleke**: Specializes in the research, production, and sales of veterinary biological products and chemical drugs [4] - **Zhongmu Co., Ltd.**: Offers a wide range of vaccines, including poultry, veterinary, and special vaccines, with nearly 170 varieties [4] - **Shenlian Bio**: Primarily involved in the research, production, and sales of veterinary biological products, with pig vaccines as a major revenue source [4] - **Haizheng Pharmaceutical**: Its subsidiary focuses on the research, production, and sales of veterinary biological drugs [5] - **Haili Bio**: Engages in the research, production, and sales of animal vaccines [6]

Core Insights - The global animal vaccine market is projected to exceed $14 billion in 2024, following a market size of over $13.5 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.10% over the past five years [1][8]. Market Overview - Animal vaccines, also known as veterinary vaccines, are products made from pathogenic microorganisms that stimulate the immune system of animals to produce specific antibodies, thereby preventing infectious diseases [1]. - North America, including the United States and Canada, is the largest regional market for animal vaccines, accounting for approximately 45% of the global market share in 2023 [3]. Industry Competition - Leading companies in the global animal vaccine industry offer a diverse range of products, including vaccines for pets, pigs, poultry, ruminants, and aquaculture [5]. - Major players such as Merck Animal Health, Zoetis, and Boehringer Ingelheim have established multiple production bases worldwide, indicating significant production capacity [5]. Company Profiles - **Merck Animal Health**: Offers pet vaccines, pig vaccines, poultry vaccines, and aquaculture vaccines, with 29 production bases across 12 countries, including a major facility in Suzhou, China [6]. - **Zoetis**: Operates production bases in the United States and China, having established its first R&D and production base in China in 2019 [6]. - **Boehringer Ingelheim**: Maintains over 20 production bases globally, with two facilities located in Nanchang and Taizhou, China [6]. - **Hualan Biological Engineering**: Initially focused on blood products, it has become a major producer of influenza vaccines in China, accounting for over 40% of the national market [6]. - **Fubao Animal Health**: Produces vaccines for pigs, poultry, and aquaculture, with production bases in the United States and Suzhou, China [6].