10月10日，天康制药股份有限公司（简称"天康制药"）在北交所更新上市申请审核动态，公司已回复第一轮审核问询函，主要包含研发模式、技术独立性 及上市标准适用，业绩下滑风险及行业政策影响等。 招股书显示，天康制药主要从事兽用生物制品研发、生产、销售及技术转让和服务业务，公司产品线涵盖猪用疫苗、反刍用疫苗、禽用疫苗、检测试剂等 兽用生物制品。公司控股股东为深交所上市公司天康生物，其持有公司1.5亿股，持股比例为58.94%。兵团国资公司直接持有公司2545.01万股股份，通过 天康生物控制公司1.5亿股，合计控制股份占公司总股本的68.94%，为公司实际控制人。 2022年至2024年（下称"报告期"），公司营业收入分别为10.00亿元、10.55亿元、10.51亿元；扣非归母净利润分别为1.97亿元、1.61亿元、1.43亿元，2023 年、2024年分别同比下滑18.36%、11.20%；毛利率分别为63.83%、62.05%、61.56%。 根据申请文件，天康制药销售模式分为政府招标采购和市场化销售，市场化销售采用"直销+经销"相结合的销售模式。2022年至2025年上半年，公司的政 采收入分别为5.64亿 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue increase of 12.63% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, achieving a total revenue of 2.793 billion yuan and a net profit of 82 million yuan, reflecting a 30.19% increase year-on-year [7] - The performance of the biological products segment is recovering, while the chemical medicine segment is experiencing rapid growth [7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 6.443 billion yuan, 6.834 billion yuan, and 7.264 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 194 million yuan, 242 million yuan, and 317 million yuan respectively [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): 2023A: 5,406, 2024A: 6,017, 2025E: 6,443, 2026E: 6,834, 2027E: 7,264 [6] - Net profit (in million yuan): 2023A: 403, 2024A: 71, 2025E: 194, 2026E: 242, 2027E: 317 [6] - EPS (in yuan): 2023A: 0.39, 2024A: 0.07, 2025E: 0.19, 2026E: 0.24, 2027E: 0.31 [6] - PE ratios: 2025E: 39.8, 2026E: 32.0, 2027E: 24.4 [6] Business Segment Performance - The biological products segment saw a revenue decline of 7.86% to 450 million yuan in the first half of 2025, while the chemical medicine segment's revenue increased by 57.36% to 999 million yuan [7] - The company launched six new products in the pet business during the first half of 2025 [7] - Export revenue increased by 24.5% to 195 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [7] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 17.20%, with a net margin of 3.19% [7] - The company expects to improve its profitability with projected net profit margins of 2.6%, 3.1%, and 3.8% from 2025 to 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is accelerating the research and development of non-epidemic vaccines, with strong growth momentum from multiple new products [3][5] - Despite short-term pressure on performance, the company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 188 million, 352 million, and 508 million yuan respectively [3][4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 54.2, 29.0, and 20.1 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue was 620 million yuan (up 1.28% year-on-year), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 60 million yuan (down 50.84% year-on-year) [3][4] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 268 million yuan (up 1.58% year-on-year), with a net profit of -16 million yuan [3][4] - The company’s R&D expenses in the first half of 2025 were 73 million yuan, an increase of 25.62% year-on-year [5] Product Development - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure, with significant growth in core products such as non-foot-and-mouth disease vaccines, which saw revenue growth exceeding 20% [4] - The company has established a dedicated technical service team for poultry vaccines, leading to a nearly 40% year-on-year increase in revenue from key poultry vaccine products [4] - The company is also expanding its overseas market presence, with sales of pig foot-and-mouth disease vaccines in Vietnam doubling year-on-year [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights a reversal in the pig farming dilemma, indicating a potential recovery in the industry due to policy-driven capacity adjustments and supply reductions [2][8]. - The current pig cycle is in a de-stocking phase, with the number of breeding sows in China decreasing from a peak of 41.42 million in 2024 to 40.43 million in June 2025, a decline of approximately 2.4% [22][23]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has set a target to reduce the breeding sow population by about 1 million heads, aiming for a total of 39.5 million [22][23]. Group 2 - Short-term pig prices are expected to decline due to reduced second fattening and seasonal demand, but a long-term increase is anticipated if the breeding sow population stabilizes below 39.5 million [26][29]. - As of July 25, 2025, the profit from self-breeding pig farming was 62.16 yuan per head, a decrease of 31.61% from the previous week, while the loss from purchasing piglets expanded to 71.39 yuan per head [32][33]. - The report emphasizes that large-scale enterprises will have more stable profitability compared to smallholders due to cost advantages and industry chain synergies [32]. Group 3 - The report identifies two key companies in the pig farming industry: Yongshun Biological and Dayu Biological, detailing their business models and market positions [3][35]. - Yongshun Biological focuses on the research, production, and sales of veterinary biological products, with over 30 types of vaccines for pigs and poultry, maintaining over 90% of its revenue from vaccine sales [3][37]. - Dayu Biological specializes in feed additives and veterinary drugs, with its feed additive and feed businesses accounting for 65.39% and 29.74% of its revenue, respectively [50][56]. Group 4 - The report provides an overview of the pig farming industry chain, which includes upstream breeding, feed production, and veterinary supplies, midstream modern farming practices, and downstream processing and distribution [21][24]. - The entire industry chain is heavily influenced by technological advancements, management practices, disease control, and is subject to environmental regulations and government oversight [21][24].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The animal vaccine sector has seen a significant rise, with a market increase of approximately 2.91% as of July 16, 2023 [1] - The animal vaccine market is divided into two main categories: pet vaccines and livestock vaccines [1] - The pet vaccine market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by an increase in pet ownership and rising consumer spending, with the market size expected to exceed 345.3 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The penetration rate of pet vaccines remains low, indicating substantial growth potential as pet owners become more health-conscious [1] Group 2: Livestock Vaccine Insights - In the context of the current "anti-involution" trend in pig farming, about 30% of pig companies have achieved over 50% of their annual output targets [2] - Major pig companies are implementing policies such as reducing breeding sows and controlling weight to enhance efficiency and disease prevention [2] - The demand for vaccines is expected to grow steadily alongside the development of the livestock industry, particularly due to the need for disease control against outbreaks like African swine fever [2] Group 3: Company Profiles - **Shengwu Co., Ltd.**: Focuses on the research, production, and sales of veterinary biological products, including vaccines for pigs, ruminants, poultry, and pets [2] - **Reap Bio**: A high-tech enterprise dedicated to providing solutions for disease prevention, treatment, and healthy breeding in the animal health industry [2] - **Kexing Pharmaceutical**: Engaged in animal vaccine research and development with a focus on zoonotic disease prevention [3] - **Puleke**: Specializes in the research, production, and sales of veterinary biological products and chemical drugs [4] - **Zhongmu Co., Ltd.**: Offers a wide range of vaccines, including poultry, veterinary, and special vaccines, with nearly 170 varieties [4] - **Shenlian Bio**: Primarily involved in the research, production, and sales of veterinary biological products, with pig vaccines as a major revenue source [4] - **Haizheng Pharmaceutical**: Its subsidiary focuses on the research, production, and sales of veterinary biological drugs [5] - **Haili Bio**: Engages in the research, production, and sales of animal vaccines [6]

Core Insights - The global animal vaccine market is projected to exceed $14 billion in 2024, following a market size of over $13.5 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.10% over the past five years [1][8]. Market Overview - Animal vaccines, also known as veterinary vaccines, are products made from pathogenic microorganisms that stimulate the immune system of animals to produce specific antibodies, thereby preventing infectious diseases [1]. - North America, including the United States and Canada, is the largest regional market for animal vaccines, accounting for approximately 45% of the global market share in 2023 [3]. Industry Competition - Leading companies in the global animal vaccine industry offer a diverse range of products, including vaccines for pets, pigs, poultry, ruminants, and aquaculture [5]. - Major players such as Merck Animal Health, Zoetis, and Boehringer Ingelheim have established multiple production bases worldwide, indicating significant production capacity [5]. Company Profiles - **Merck Animal Health**: Offers pet vaccines, pig vaccines, poultry vaccines, and aquaculture vaccines, with 29 production bases across 12 countries, including a major facility in Suzhou, China [6]. - **Zoetis**: Operates production bases in the United States and China, having established its first R&D and production base in China in 2019 [6]. - **Boehringer Ingelheim**: Maintains over 20 production bases globally, with two facilities located in Nanchang and Taizhou, China [6]. - **Hualan Biological Engineering**: Initially focused on blood products, it has become a major producer of influenza vaccines in China, accounting for over 40% of the national market [6]. - **Fubao Animal Health**: Produces vaccines for pigs, poultry, and aquaculture, with production bases in the United States and Suzhou, China [6].