以下文章来源于底线思维 ，作者大伊万 底线思维 . 观察者网时评专栏 本文来自微信公众号： 底线思维 ，作者：大伊万，题图来自：视觉中国 根据印度港口、航运和水道部 （MoPSW） 的消息，该扶持计划的核心意图，是通过改善造船业的 长期融资渠道，支持新建船厂，提升技术能力和构筑法律保障等，提振印度的造船能力。 近日，印度政府宣布了一项总额为7000亿卢比 （约80亿美元） 的造船业扶持计划，试图复刻20世纪 80年代"马鲁蒂-铃木" （Maruti-Suzuki） 式的印资－外资合作机制，目标直指让印度在2030年进入 世界造船业前十、在2047年进入世界造船业前五的行列，可谓雄心勃勃。 然而，这一宏伟目标的实现并非坦途。 印度造船业：曾经辉煌 自印度独立以来，印度造船业发展十分缓慢。印度产船舶长期处于水平低，吨位小的阶段。仅仅在本 世纪的最初十年，借助全球化步伐，印度造船业迎来过一个还算不错的发展时期，船舶出口总额也一 度从不到1亿美元猛然膨胀到11亿美元。但即便在印度造船业最繁荣的2011年，其占世界造船市场的 比重也仅有3.7%，此后便开始逐渐下降。 就印度造船业的现状而言，只能说"潜力较大"吧。202 ...

近日，印度政府宣布了一项总额为7000亿卢比（约80亿美元）的造船业扶持计划，试图复刻20世纪80年 代"马鲁蒂-铃木"（Maruti-Suzuki）式的印资－外资合作机制，目标直指让印度在2030年进入世界造船 业前十、在2047年进入世界造船业前五的行列，可谓雄心勃勃。 然而，这一宏伟目标的实现并非坦途。 那么，莫迪政府此次宣布的、总额约为7000亿卢比（实为6972.5亿）的造船业扶持计划，包括了哪些内 容？计划的总体可行性如何呢？ 根据印度港口、航运和水道部（MoPSW）的消息，该扶持计划的核心意图，是通过改善造船业的长期 融资渠道，支持新建船厂，提升技术能力和构筑法律保障等，提振印度的造船能力。 在这一总体思路之下，印度意图通过如下几个方面来整体提升造船业能力： 第一部分是船舶建造财政援助计划（SBFAS），为造船厂提供直接的财政支持，总金额为2473.6亿卢比 （约为198亿元人民币）。根据披露信息，该计划将执行到2036年3月。根据相关信息披露，计划中规 定，价值低于100亿卢比的船舶将获得15%的补贴，而超过这一门槛的船舶将获得20%的补贴。此外， 如果环保型船舶包括30%的本土附加值的话，将 ...

Group 1 - As of 2025, China holds a dominant position in the global shipbuilding industry with a 53% share of global orders, while the U.S. accounts for only 0.5% [1][3] - China's shipbuilding industry is rapidly advancing in high-tech vessel categories, including liquefied natural gas carriers and ultra-large container ships, supported by a complete domestic supply chain [3][5] - The average delivery time for a large cargo ship in China is 20 months, compared to 30 months or more in the U.S., highlighting China's efficiency in production [5] Group 2 - China's advantages in shipbuilding costs stem from lower prices for steel, labor, and financing, with steel prices significantly lower than those in Japan and South Korea [5][9] - The U.S. shipbuilding industry faces challenges due to a shortage of skilled labor, with average annual salaries for welders reaching $75,000, limiting production capacity [7][9] - The U.S. shipbuilding sector is primarily focused on military vessels, which has resulted in a lack of competitiveness in the commercial ship market, with only 0.5% of global orders for civilian vessels [9][11] Group 3 - The Jones Act in the U.S. mandates that all vessels engaged in domestic trade must be built in U.S. shipyards, which protects domestic demand but reduces global competitiveness [9][11] - The U.S. shipbuilding supply chain is heavily reliant on imports for high-precision equipment and steel, increasing costs and delivery times [9][11] - Efforts by the Trump administration to revitalize the U.S. shipbuilding industry through international partnerships and investments have not addressed the fundamental issues of high costs and inefficiencies [11]

Group 1 - Multiple federal agencies, including ICE, FBI, and DEA, conducted a heavily armed raid on a construction site for a battery plant in Georgia, jointly invested by Hyundai and LG [1][3][5] - The operation aimed to arrest illegal immigrants, resulting in the detention of 475 workers, primarily Korean nationals [7][13] - The raid has been described as the largest crackdown on illegal immigration by the current Department of Homeland Security [13][20] Group 2 - Hyundai's investment in Georgia includes a vehicle manufacturing plant and a battery factory, with a total investment of $26 billion, marking it as the largest economic investment project in the state's history [15][17] - The construction of the battery plant is currently halted due to the raid, which has raised concerns among foreign investors about the treatment of their workforce [19][23] - The U.S. immigration policy has made it difficult for foreign companies to hire skilled labor, leading to the use of B1 visas for workers, which are not intended for employment [18][19] Group 3 - The raid reflects a shift in U.S. immigration enforcement under the Trump administration, which has increased the pressure on companies employing illegal immigrants [20][21] - The situation has implications for other foreign investments, as companies like Hyundai Heavy Industries are also looking to invest in the U.S. shipbuilding industry [24][30] - The U.S. shipbuilding industry has been struggling due to protectionist policies, and partnerships with companies like Hyundai Heavy Industries are seen as a potential solution to revitalize this sector [26][29]

Core Viewpoint - The global demand for shipbuilding is increasingly favoring Chinese shipyards, with significant orders from wealthy shipping magnates around the world, indicating a strong competitive advantage for China in the shipbuilding industry [1][3]. Group 1: Order Volume and Value - Chinese shipyards are projected to secure 7.5 out of every 10 new ship orders globally in 2024, showcasing their dominance in the market [1]. - Notable orders include over ten super-large oil tankers from Greek shipping giants valued at over ten billion USD, and 36 liquefied gas carriers ordered by Qatar Energy, with total contracts nearing one hundred billion USD [3]. - Brazil's Vale has also placed orders for 12 bulk carriers, including six with green technology, further emphasizing the trend of significant investments in Chinese shipbuilding [3]. Group 2: Competitive Advantages - Chinese shipyards offer prices that are 30% to 50% lower than their European and American counterparts, making them an attractive option for international buyers [5]. - The speed of construction is highlighted, with large cargo ships being completed in 18 months compared to three to five years in the West [5]. - Advanced technology is a key factor, with top shipyards like Hudong-Zhonghua utilizing automated welding and innovative designs, leading to a significant share of global green ship orders [5]. Group 3: Industry Landscape - Traditional shipbuilding nations like the United States are struggling, with only four shipyards capable of building naval vessels left, and a significant decline in the number of merchant ships [7]. - The Chinese fleet boasts over 5,000 vessels, vastly outnumbering the U.S. fleet, which has only about 80 ocean-going ships [7]. - Japanese and South Korean shipbuilders are also facing challenges, with rising costs making it difficult to compete with Chinese prices [7]. Group 4: International Collaboration - Chinese shipyards are not only focused on shipbuilding but are also fostering international partnerships, as seen with Pacific International Shipping's order for eight container ships equipped with energy-saving technology [9]. - Long-term contracts, such as those with Qatar Energy extending to 2031, indicate a growing trust in Chinese shipbuilding capabilities [9]. - The emphasis on green technology and carbon reduction in new orders reflects a commitment to sustainable practices in the industry [9]. Group 5: Industry Growth Metrics - In 2024, Chinese shipyards are expected to hold 74% of global new ship orders, with a 14% increase in completed vessels, solidifying their status as the "world's shipyard" [11].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming military parade on September 3rd in Tiananmen Square will showcase domestically produced main battle equipment, reflecting the advancements in China's military capabilities and the country's commitment to self-reliance in defense technology [1][2]. Group 1: Military Modernization - The military parade will feature advanced weaponry that demonstrates the significant progress in China's military modernization, including new aircraft carriers, destroyers, stealth fighters, drones, and strategic missiles [1]. - The rapid development and deployment of new military technologies are crucial for enhancing combat effectiveness and ensuring national security [2]. Group 2: Historical Context and Lessons - Historical experiences, particularly during the Anti-Japanese War, highlight the importance of modern weaponry in achieving military success and the high costs associated with outdated equipment [1]. - The evolution of warfare necessitates continuous updates in combat strategies and training to effectively utilize new technologies [2]. Group 3: Training and Readiness - The military emphasizes the need for soldiers to master new equipment to maintain and enhance combat readiness, advocating for integrated training and technological proficiency [2]. - The ongoing modernization efforts are not only about acquiring new weapons but also about ensuring that personnel are well-trained to use them effectively in real combat scenarios [2].

Core Points - The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff confirmed that a North Korean destroyer, which capsized last month, has been righted [1] - The operation to right the destroyer was completed on the 2nd of this month, with South Korean military gaining knowledge of the situation on the same day [1] - North Korea utilized cranes and other vessels to carry out the righting operation [1]

Group 1 - The 22nd Shangri-La Dialogue is being held in Singapore from May 30 to June 1, with over 550 representatives from defense and security agencies from more than 40 countries attending [1] - U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin emphasized the need to reshape military spirit, rebuild the military, and restore deterrence during his speech [3] - The U.S. defense budget for fiscal year 2026 is projected to reach $1 trillion, including funding for the Iron Dome defense system, the sixth-generation fighter F-47, the new stealth bomber B-21, and new submarines and destroyers [3] Group 2 - Austin criticized the Biden administration's previous four years, stating that the world has seen a weak America, and pledged to restore deterrence [3] - The Trump administration's efforts to rapidly rebuild the U.S. military were highlighted, with a commitment to wisely use every dollar to enhance lethality and readiness [3] - Concerns were raised by Forbes regarding the effectiveness of increasing nuclear weapons and costly unproven missile defense systems in addressing America's most pressing security challenges [4] Group 3 - Chinese defense officials criticized the U.S. for advancing the deployment of space-based weapons systems, claiming it violates the Outer Space Treaty and exacerbates the arms race [4] - The Chinese government urged the U.S. to halt its military expansion in outer space to maintain global strategic stability [4]

Core Viewpoint - North Korea is currently undergoing repairs on a destroyer that experienced a significant accident during its launch on May 21, with a high-ranking official being detained for accountability [1] Group 1: Incident Overview - A major accident occurred during the launch of a North Korean destroyer on May 21 [1] - An investigation team reported their findings to the Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party of Korea on May 25 [1] Group 2: Repair Efforts - Repair work is actively progressing under the technical guidance of an expert team to restore the destroyer's balance [1] - The repair efforts are being conducted according to a planned schedule [1] Group 3: Accountability Measures - The judicial authorities have detained Lee Hyung-sun, the Deputy Minister of Military Industry, for his significant responsibility in the accident [1]

Group 1 - A significant accident occurred during the launch of a North Korean destroyer on May 21, with an investigation team reporting to the Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party of Korea on May 24 [1] - As of May 24, no additional damage to the vessel was found, and repair work is proceeding as planned [2] - Legal investigations have led to the detention of key personnel responsible for the accident, including the chief engineer of the Chongjin Shipyard and other senior officials [2]