以下文章来源于底线思维 ，作者大伊万 底线思维 . 观察者网时评专栏 本文来自微信公众号： 底线思维 ，作者：大伊万，题图来自：视觉中国 根据印度港口、航运和水道部 （MoPSW） 的消息，该扶持计划的核心意图，是通过改善造船业的 长期融资渠道，支持新建船厂，提升技术能力和构筑法律保障等，提振印度的造船能力。 近日，印度政府宣布了一项总额为7000亿卢比 （约80亿美元） 的造船业扶持计划，试图复刻20世纪 80年代"马鲁蒂-铃木" （Maruti-Suzuki） 式的印资－外资合作机制，目标直指让印度在2030年进入 世界造船业前十、在2047年进入世界造船业前五的行列，可谓雄心勃勃。 然而，这一宏伟目标的实现并非坦途。 印度造船业：曾经辉煌 自印度独立以来，印度造船业发展十分缓慢。印度产船舶长期处于水平低，吨位小的阶段。仅仅在本 世纪的最初十年，借助全球化步伐，印度造船业迎来过一个还算不错的发展时期，船舶出口总额也一 度从不到1亿美元猛然膨胀到11亿美元。但即便在印度造船业最繁荣的2011年，其占世界造船市场的 比重也仅有3.7%，此后便开始逐渐下降。 就印度造船业的现状而言，只能说"潜力较大"吧。202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is undergoing a transformation in its product structure, focusing on green and intelligent shipbuilding, while expanding its product offerings to include high-value vessels such as luxury cruise ships and large container ships [1][3][5]. Group 1: Product Structure Transformation - The company has evolved from primarily building bulk carriers and oil tankers to a diversified product range that includes luxury cruise ships, large container ships, and specialized vessels [3][5]. - The first domestically built large cruise ship, "Aida·Magic City," was successfully delivered on November 4, 2023, marking a significant milestone in China's cruise ship construction technology [3][5]. - The company has delivered a total of 602 vessels, amounting to 10.12 million deadweight tons [1]. Group 2: Green and Intelligent Shipbuilding - The company is transitioning from traditional single-fuel diesel engines to dual-fuel systems, incorporating ammonia and methanol fuels to meet stricter carbon emission regulations [5][6]. - The company has developed the "SWS-TIME" digital shipbuilding platform, which integrates various management processes and allows employees to track their tasks and progress via mobile devices [6][7]. Group 3: Export and Market Opportunities - The company's foreign trade export volume has exceeded $40 billion, with projections of $2 billion in annual exports for 2023, 2024, and 2025 [7]. - The current order book is heavily weighted towards container ships, which account for about half of the orders, alongside oil tankers and car carriers [7]. Group 4: Smart Warehouse Management - The company has implemented an intelligent warehouse system that automates the storage and retrieval of heavy materials, significantly improving efficiency [10][12]. - The intelligent warehouse, operational since October 2023, covers an area of 6,000 square meters and utilizes advanced technologies for real-time inventory management [10][12]. - The "cloud unpacking" method allows for remote inspection of materials, enhancing flexibility and efficiency in the verification process [11].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of China's military industry has created pressure on countries opposing China, particularly India, which has begun to feel anxious about its own military capabilities. However, recent rankings of global military companies have shown that two Indian firms have surpassed their Chinese counterparts in market value, providing a temporary boost to Indian sentiment [1][7]. Group 1: Market Value Rankings - The global military company market value ranking shows that Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) ranks 12th with a market value of $34.22 billion, while Bharat Electronics ranks 13th with $31.28 billion. In contrast, China's AVIC ranks 8th with $20.85 billion, and NORINCO ranks 9th with $20.56 billion [1][6]. - The ranking indicates that 16 out of the top 20 positions are held by companies from the US, Europe, and Israel, highlighting the dominance of these regions in the military sector [1][6]. Group 2: Company Performance and Capabilities - HAL, India's largest state-owned aerospace manufacturer, primarily assembles Su-30MKI fighter jets under license and has limited original development capabilities, with its only indigenous fighter being the Tejas series, which has faced performance criticisms [3][5]. - In comparison, China's military aviation company, AVIC, has demonstrated significant advancements in developing advanced fighter jets, including the J-15, J-16, and J-35, showcasing a clear technological and production advantage over HAL [3][5]. - Bharat Electronics, India's largest state-owned military electronics company, has not yet developed advanced radar systems comparable to China's CETC, which leads in the region and has the capability to independently develop advanced AESA radar systems [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Perceptions - The recent market value rankings have been perceived as a strategy to undermine China's military strength while artificially inflating the market values of Indian companies, reflecting the volatility and speculative nature of the Indian stock market [7][9]. - According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), HAL ranks 43rd and Bharat Electronics ranks 67th in terms of sales revenue, indicating that their market values may not accurately reflect their actual military capabilities [9].

Core Viewpoint - Fincantieri reported a record high order intake in Q1 2025, driven by a strong recovery in the cruise market, with significant increases in both order volume and profitability [2][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Fincantieri's total revenue reached €2.376 billion (approximately ¥192.20 billion), a 35% increase compared to €1.76 billion in Q1 2024, with all business segments performing well, particularly shipbuilding, which saw a 39.5% revenue increase [2][3]. - The company's EBITDA for Q1 2025 was €154 million (approximately ¥12.46 billion), a 54% increase year-over-year, with the EBITDA margin rising from 5.7% in Q1 2024 to 6.4% [2][3]. Shipbuilding Segment - Fincantieri's shipbuilding revenue in Q1 2025 was €1.828 billion (approximately ¥147.87 billion), up 39.5% from €1.314 billion in Q1 2024, with cruise business revenue increasing from €914 million to €1.045 billion, accounting for 41% of total revenue [3]. - The EBITDA for the shipbuilding segment was €125 million (approximately ¥10.11 billion), a 53.3% increase from €81 million in Q1 2024, with the EBITDA margin improving from 6.2% to 6.8% [3]. Order Intake - Fincantieri achieved a record quarterly order intake of €11.7 billion (approximately ¥946.44 billion) in Q1 2025, significantly surpassing €500 million in Q1 2024, representing 76% of the total order intake for the entire year of 2024 [4]. - The shipbuilding segment contributed €11.519 billion (approximately ¥931.80 billion) to the new orders in Q1 2025, compared to €141 million in the same period last year, driven by significant cruise orders [4]. New Contracts and Future Outlook - Fincantieri secured new contracts from two "new clients," including TUI Cruises and AIDA Cruises, for a total value exceeding €2 billion [5]. - As of March 31, 2025, Fincantieri's backlog reached €57.6 billion (approximately ¥4659.41 billion), a record high, with confirmed orders amounting to €40.3 billion and additional optional orders of €17.3 billion, with delivery dates extending to 2036 [5]. - The strong performance in Q1 2025 reinforces Fincantieri's growth prospects in core business areas, benefiting from favorable macroeconomic conditions in the cruise industry, expected defense spending growth, and rising global demand for offshore energy resources [5].