Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant reforms in Jiangsu province aimed at enhancing the supply of high-quality housing, aligning with national policies to improve living standards and meet public demand for better residential options [1][2][4]. Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development introduced the concept of "good housing" in 2022, emphasizing the need for a dual rental and purchase housing system [1]. - Jiangsu has implemented a comprehensive set of reform policies covering the entire chain of high-quality housing construction, including planning, land, design, quality control, and financial support [1][5]. - Specific policies include relaxing planning regulations to allow for higher building heights and more green spaces, as well as optimizing design for existing undeveloped land [1][2]. Group 2: Market Response - The reforms have energized the market, leading to a competitive environment among new housing projects focused on innovative design and quality [2]. - There has been a notable increase in the number of high-quality housing projects, with 26 completed and 274 under construction as of mid-June this year, achieving full coverage across cities in Jiangsu [2]. - The demand for high-quality housing has exceeded expectations, with projects in cities like Nanjing and Wuxi experiencing strong sales, boosting market confidence [2]. Group 3: Consumer Focus - The government aims to ensure that more citizens can access quality housing, emphasizing the importance of consumer rights and satisfaction in housing transactions [4][5]. - Policies are being developed to enhance residential quality, including guarantees for housing quality, maintenance, and personalized renovation services [4]. - The focus is on creating safe, durable, and environmentally friendly housing that meets the needs of all age groups, with specific provisions for facilities catering to the elderly and children [4].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in housing prices across 70 major cities and a continuous reduction in inventory, indicating ongoing adjustments and a need for improved market confidence [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In May, the year-on-year decline in housing prices continued to narrow, and the inventory of commercial housing is decreasing [1]. - The State Council emphasized the importance of stabilizing expectations, activating demand, optimizing supply, and mitigating risks to promote a steady recovery in the real estate market [1][3]. - The ongoing urbanization process in China suggests a broad space for the real estate market's development, indicating a positive long-term outlook [1]. Group 2: Demand Activation - Cities like Guangzhou have reiterated the cancellation of housing purchase restrictions and the reduction of down payment ratios and interest rates to stimulate demand [2]. - Various local governments are implementing policies such as housing vouchers, optimizing public housing loan policies, and increasing home purchase subsidies to further release demand [2]. Group 3: Supply Optimization - There is a need to introduce more high-quality housing to stimulate consumer demand for improved living conditions [2]. - The supply of residential land should be adjusted based on demand to better match housing supply with market needs, preventing significant price fluctuations [2]. Group 4: Risk Mitigation - Improving the financial situation of real estate companies and reinforcing the responsibility for "guaranteeing housing delivery" are essential to mitigate risks [2]. - The ongoing coordination of real estate financing mechanisms and the "white list" system are helping to reduce the risk of project delays [2]. Group 5: New Development Model - The State Council highlighted the importance of constructing a new development model for real estate, focusing on long-term stability and systematic reforms across various sectors [3]. - The transition from primarily new housing to a balanced focus on both new and existing housing is expected, with an emphasis on improving the quality of both [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policies in the real estate sector focus on controlling supply, with measures aimed at reducing future housing supply and promoting high-quality housing development [1][4][18]. Supply Control Measures - The new urban renewal policy emphasizes "no demolition if possible," effectively reducing future supply [1]. - Many cities are implementing immediate sales of newly supplied land to control supply, as the time from land acquisition to sale is longer for pre-sold properties compared to existing ones [1]. - In April, the average land supply floor area in 30 hot cities was 1.94, remaining below 2.0 for nine consecutive months, indicating a trend of controlling supply [2]. Construction and Sales Trends - In April, new housing starts nationwide fell to 48.4 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22%, marking the lowest monthly figure since 2019 [2]. - From January to April, new housing starts totaled 18 million square meters, only 63% of the new housing transaction volume during the same period [2]. - The new housing sales area has reached a historical low, with inventory turnover periods in hot cities returning to a safe zone of under 18 months [2]. Market Dynamics - The monthly sales decline has decreased to below 3%, with new housing sales area and value dropping by 2.8% and 3.2% year-on-year, respectively [4]. - Despite a potential bottoming out in the new housing market, the supply side continues to decline, with new housing starts down by 23.8% in April [4]. - The ongoing decline in new housing starts has persisted for 34 months, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [4]. Inventory and Developer Strategies - The inventory of 50 typical listed real estate companies has decreased for three consecutive years, with completed inventory rising by 5.6 percentage points to 27%, the highest in five years [5]. - Developers are slowing down construction due to reduced inventory turnover rates, with private developers experiencing negative growth in completed inventory [5]. - The shift from high turnover to high-quality housing has been successful, with strict regulations on pre-sale funds ensuring project completion [6]. Quality Housing Trends - The average turnover rate for new homes in key cities reached 37% in April, up 13 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a demand for improved housing quality [8]. - The market for improved housing products is characterized by rapid turnover and competition among developers, leading to a focus on quick sales rather than detailed project development [9]. Price Dynamics - The sales value decline has been less severe than the sales area decline, suggesting a potential rebound in housing prices, with new home prices rising by 3.1% and 1.6% in January-February and January-March, respectively [10]. - However, the overall price stability of new homes is decreasing, with the average price increase slowing to only 0.3% year-on-year in the first four months of the year [10]. Secondary Market Changes - The second-hand housing market is experiencing an increase in listings and a widening price decline, with a 0.4% drop in the price index for 70 cities in April [12]. - The influx of high-quality new homes is impacting the second-hand market, leading to increased listings of larger units and luxury properties [12]. Government and Developer Initiatives - The government and developers are both exploring high-quality housing solutions, with developers focusing on upper limits of quality and the government setting minimum standards [13][14]. - The national strategy for "good housing" aims to enhance supply-side reforms and improve the overall quality of housing, including public facilities and building standards [18][19]. Future Outlook - The transition from asset-driven to consumption-driven housing markets is expected to enhance the utility value of homes, making them more accessible to the general public [21][22]. - The focus on improving spatial value and matching housing with industry and services is anticipated to stabilize the real estate market in the long term [22].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with top 100 real estate companies experiencing a slight decline in sales but maintaining a steady recovery trend [1][3]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In April, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 284.68 billion yuan, with a cumulative sales turnover of 1,018.17 billion yuan from January to April, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% [1]. - Poly Developments leads the sales rankings with a turnover of 80.61 billion yuan, followed by Greentown China and China Overseas Land & Investment with 71.02 billion yuan and 61.39 billion yuan respectively [1]. - The sales thresholds for different tiers of companies have shown differentiation, with the top 10, 30, and 50 companies experiencing increased sales thresholds, while the top 20 companies saw a year-on-year decrease of 8.9% to 11.26 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Strategy - Real estate companies are shifting focus from merely achieving sales targets to enhancing high-quality development and improving contract collection rates [2]. - The implementation of "one city, one policy" marketing strategies allows companies to respond quickly to market changes and optimize regional land reserve structures [2]. - Investment strategies are now concentrated on high-capacity cities, prioritizing projects with high revenue certainty, leading to significant land acquisitions in core areas of first and strong second-tier cities [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The new housing supply in April remained stable compared to the previous month, but transaction volumes showed a slight decline, with expectations for May indicating a similar trend [3]. - The emphasis on constructing "good houses" has been reinforced by the government, with a significant portion of the housing stock being older, indicating a persistent demand for high-quality housing [3]. - The central government is expected to accelerate the implementation of supportive policies for the real estate market, which may lead to continued recovery in core city markets [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [13]. Core Insights - Increasing the supply of high-quality housing is expected to positively impact consumer demand and stabilize land finance. Housing serves as both an investment and a consumer good, with high-quality housing representing a new consumption category that can alleviate pressures from oversupply and income expectations [2][10]. - The policy goal of stabilizing the market is becoming more proactive, with improved market expectations. The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have passed, highlighting structural opportunities in core areas and quality properties [6][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality housing supply in opening up new market space amid weak overall supply-demand dynamics, which is crucial for boosting consumer demand and stabilizing land finance [10]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 1.13% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1.51%, ranking 30 out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index is down 3.74%, with a slight outperformance of 0.02% relative to the CSI 300 [7][16]. - The performance of the development sector was primarily negative, while property management and rental sectors saw some gains [7]. Policy Developments - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need to increase the supply of high-quality housing and optimize existing property acquisition policies. Local policies, such as Xiamen's new housing voucher initiative, aim to enhance flexibility and efficiency in housing choices [8][18]. - The report notes that the focus on urban renewal and the construction of a new real estate development model is crucial for maintaining market stability [10][18]. Sales Data - In sample cities, new home sales showed a year-on-year decline of 6.8%, while second-hand home sales increased by 20.1%. Year-to-date, new home sales are up 1.0%, and second-hand sales are up 29.3% [9][19]. - The report indicates that the sales performance of new homes is under pressure, while second-hand homes are performing relatively well [9][19].

Core Insights - The recent high-level meeting did not signal a "flood of stimulus" or a "surge in housing prices," but rather indicated a pragmatic approach to stabilize the market using structural measures instead of broad-based incentives [3] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The "housing ticket 2.0" policy has evolved from a "region-specific" model to a "city-wide" exchange, significantly boosting home purchase funding and inventory turnover in cities like Xiamen, where over 10 billion yuan was mobilized in just four months [4] - The focus on high-quality housing supply reflects market realities, with the proportion of improved housing transactions in first-tier cities reaching 58% in Q1 2025, while demand for basic housing has decreased to 32% [5] - Land policy adjustments in cities like Beijing and Hangzhou aim to enhance the quality of housing, with developers increasingly targeting high-end products, as evidenced by a 74.4% premium in land auctions [6] Market Segmentation and Challenges - The disparity in asset performance is evident, with core assets appreciating while peripheral assets struggle, as seen in Shanghai's new home prices rising by 8% to over 120,000 yuan per square meter, while suburban properties saw a 15% price drop [7] - The market is experiencing a "pseudo-recovery" in first-tier cities, with significant fluctuations in new home sales, while third and fourth-tier cities face severe challenges, such as a 38-month inventory turnover period in some regions [8] - The introduction of supportive policies, such as housing subsidies for families and graduates, aims to stimulate demand, but the overall economic environment, including rising unemployment rates, continues to suppress purchasing intentions [9] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on core assets that retain value while being cautious of peripheral properties that may become liabilities [9] - Utilizing available policy incentives, such as housing tickets and subsidies, can provide financial relief and enhance purchasing power [9] - The current market emphasizes the importance of liquidity, as assets that cannot be quickly liquidated may pose significant risks [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][32]. Core Insights - The recent statements from the Central Political Bureau emphasize the need to continuously consolidate the stability of the real estate market, affirming the effectiveness of previous policies [4][5]. - The trend of urban renewal is becoming clearer, with the transformation of urban villages identified as the most explicit policy direction for real estate in 2025 [12]. - Increasing the supply of high-quality housing is aimed at meeting the residential needs of the population and avoiding homogenization between new and second-hand housing [16][17]. Summary by Sections Policy Direction - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the importance of preventing and resolving risks in key areas, implementing a comprehensive debt policy for local governments, and accelerating the resolution of overdue payments to enterprises [3]. - The meeting also called for the implementation of urban renewal actions and the promotion of the transformation of urban villages and dilapidated housing [3][12]. Market Stability - The updated statement regarding the real estate market reflects a commitment to maintaining stability, recognizing the positive effects of prior policies such as relaxed down payment ratios and reduced mortgage rates [5][12]. - Since October 2024, indicators of real estate sales have shown a significant recovery, with both the sales area of commercial housing and the sales revenue of the top 100 real estate companies improving year-on-year [5][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the ongoing urban village transformation will stimulate housing demand, while the focus on high-quality housing will enhance the supply of new homes [32]. - Specific stock recommendations include Beike W, I Love My Home, Greentown China, and China Overseas Grand Oceans Group, indicating potential opportunities in the real estate sector [32].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - The central political bureau meeting on April 25, 2025, emphasized the importance of "urban renewal" as a significant factor for the real estate market, indicating that stabilizing the real estate market is crucial for expanding domestic demand [1][5] - The meeting highlighted the need to accelerate the implementation of urban renewal actions, effectively and orderly promote the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing, and increase the supply of high-quality housing [5][8] - The report anticipates that the demand for "good houses" will drive sustainable development in the industry, with a focus on safety, comfort, and green living standards [5][8] Summary by Sections Policy and Market Dynamics - The report discusses the implementation of more proactive macro policies, including the issuance of local government special bonds and the potential for interest rate cuts to maintain liquidity [5][8] - It notes that as of April 10, 2025, approximately 850 projects for acquiring idle land have been proposed, covering over 40 million square meters and amounting to 128.2 billion yuan [5] Urban Renewal and Housing Quality - The report emphasizes that urban renewal will be a key policy focus for the year, with a significant portion of the existing housing stock eligible for renovation [5][8] - It states that about 31.9% of the existing urban residential stock was built before 2000, indicating substantial potential for urban renewal projects [5] Market Stability and Investment Opportunities - The report indicates that the real estate market has shown signs of stabilization, with average sales prices for commercial housing increasing by 0.7% and 0.9% year-on-year in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively [5][8] - It suggests that the market's stability will depend on the effective implementation of supportive policies in the second quarter of 2025 [5][8] - The report identifies four main investment lines: companies with strong fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms with significant breakthroughs, companies with strategic changes, and real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery of the second-hand housing market [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need for continuous efforts to prevent and resolve risks in key areas, with a focus on implementing a comprehensive debt policy for local governments and accelerating the resolution of overdue payments to enterprises [6] - The report highlights the acceleration of urban renewal initiatives and the optimization of existing housing acquisition policies, indicating a significant expansion in the scope of urban renewal projects [6] - The report notes the clear objectives of stabilizing the real estate market and capital markets, with expectations for further supportive policies if market conditions weaken [6] - There is a strong emphasis on increasing the supply of high-quality housing, with the potential for significant growth in this new development track [6] Summary by Sections Urban Renewal and Housing Policies - The report discusses the government's commitment to urban renewal, particularly in transforming urban villages and dilapidated housing, with expectations for accelerated progress in these areas [6] - It mentions the government's intention to provide local governments with greater autonomy regarding the acquisition of existing housing, which is expected to lead to more flexible compensation methods [6] Market Stability and Future Policies - The report indicates that the central government has consistently emphasized the importance of maintaining stability in the real estate market since September 2024, with a focus on timely implementation of policies to support employment and economic stability [6] - It anticipates that if real estate market indicators continue to decline, additional supportive measures will be introduced [6] High-Quality Housing Supply - The report highlights the government's push for the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and smart housing, indicating a shift in market demand towards high-quality housing [6] - It suggests that the current housing demand is at a low point, but the structural demand is diversifying, creating opportunities for companies that can deliver high-quality housing [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and product quality, such as Binjiang Group, Jianfa Co., and Greentown China [6] - It also suggests monitoring second-hand housing intermediaries and property management companies as potential investment opportunities [6]

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent Politburo meeting was on the real estate sector, emphasizing the need for a new development model and increased supply of high-quality housing [2][3] - The meeting reiterated the importance of risk prevention in key areas, including the implementation of local government debt resolution policies and urban renewal initiatives [3][4] - The collaboration between local government debt management, urban renewal, and housing supply reforms is expected to mitigate systemic risks and inject new momentum into the market [3][4] Group 2 - The Politburo meeting marked the first mention of increasing the supply of high-quality housing, indicating a shift from quantity expansion to quality improvement in the real estate sector [5] - New national standards for residential projects are set to be implemented in May, with several cities already following suit to promote high-quality housing construction [5] - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with significant stock price increases in the real estate sector following the policy announcements, indicating positive market sentiment [6][7] Group 3 - The land auction market has seen increased activity, with average premium rates around 20% in 22 key cities, signaling a growing demand for residential land [7] - The trend of government policies gradually withdrawing price controls is expected to facilitate a diverse range of housing needs, encouraging developers to focus on high-quality products [7]