态度大转弯，美国承认关税战失败 "中国的实力非常强大，让人不得不尊重。"特朗普说出这句话时，国际舆论哗然。这位曾对中国挥舞关 税大棒的总统，如今公开承认对中国加征100%关税"不可持续"。 这一表态不是孤立事件。2025年5月12日，中美在日内瓦发布联合经贸会谈声明，标志着特朗普在"超级 关税战"中向中国低头。据报道，特朗普对华关税从145%大幅降低，中美双方同步取消91%的加征关 税，并暂停24%关税90天。 一场贸易战打完，特朗普终于认清现实：今天的中国，就像二战时期的美国，拥有让世界惊 叹的工业实力和战争潜力。 2025年10月，特朗普在接受媒体采访时罕见承认：对中国加征100%关税"不可持续"。他甚至公开表 示，"中国的实力非常强大，让人不得不尊重"。这位一向强硬的美国总统，为何突然对中国展现出敬 意？答案就隐藏在历史与现实的对比中。 特朗普的态度转弯背后是美国遭受的多重打击。中国对美舰征收额外费用政策落地后，宁波港很快收到 了第一笔446万元款项。美国邮轮巨头陷入困境，嘉年华、皇家加勒比等企业付不起高额港务费，停航 又面临乘客投诉。 科技领域同样不容乐观。英伟达CEO黄仁勋透露，其在中国市场份额从9 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between the US and China in Busan resulted in verbal agreements, including the US's decision to delay the imposition of fentanyl-related tariffs and port surcharges, while China extended its rare earth export controls for another year, indicating a cautious exploration of each other's limits [1] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen expressed concerns about China's compliance with commitments, threatening to reinstate tariffs, but previous attempts to address trade deficits and technology restrictions have yielded diminishing returns, with tariffs on some goods reaching 145% during 2023-2024, ultimately leading to inflation and corporate withdrawals in the US [3] - China controls over 70% of global rare earth mining and processing, making it difficult for the US to source alternatives from countries like Australia or Myanmar, which cannot meet the demands of the military and electric vehicle industries [5][6] Group 2 - The lack of a joint statement from the recent talks highlights unresolved details, such as the ambiguity surrounding the proposed suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs and the unclear inclusion of products like mobile phones and chip components, reflecting internal coordination issues within the US government [8] - The perception that China might act unpredictably like the US is misguided; China has not abandoned any trade commitments since joining the WTO, relying on systematic capabilities rather than verbal promises, which contrasts with the US's approach [10] - China's advancements in technology, particularly in semiconductors and military capabilities, demonstrate its establishment of an independent technological system, while the US's attempts to decouple and apply financial pressure have not deterred China's progress [12]

图片来源：央视新闻截图 第1"亚速"军称，俄军在此次进攻中增加了坦克数量并使用了新战术。乌军则依靠防御工事、有效布雷以及炮兵和无人机部队配合，与俄军进行了6个多小 时激战。最终，俄军攻势被挫败并损失了2辆坦克、12辆装甲战车和1辆装甲运兵车。 27日晚，乌总统泽连斯基在视频讲话中称，波克罗夫斯克是俄军最主要的攻击目标，俄军在该方向集中了最多的攻击部队。乌军在该方向取得的任何结果 都关乎整个乌克兰和整个乌军防御体系的安危。 据CCTV国际时讯消息，据俄新社10月28日报道，俄罗斯对外情报局称，法国总统马克龙"希望对乌克兰进行军事干涉"，法军总参谋部正准备在乌克兰部 署一支多达2000人的部队以帮助乌克兰政府。 每经编辑｜陈柯名 黄胜 据新华社，乌克兰国民警卫队第1"亚速"军27日晚在社交媒体发布视频和消息称，乌军当天在波克罗夫斯克以北的多布罗波利耶地区击退了俄军装甲部队 发起的一次大规模进攻。 第1"亚速"军称，俄军27日投入29辆装甲车对多布罗波利耶地区发动进攻，试图占领沙霍沃和弗拉基米罗夫卡两处村庄，这是近期俄军在该方向发起的最 大规模攻势之一。 编辑|陈柯名 黄胜 杜恒峰 校对|金冥羽 每日经济新闻综合自 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming military parade on September 3rd is a significant event marking the 80th anniversary of China's victory in the Anti-Japanese War and the World Anti-Fascist War, showcasing China's military strength and commitment to peace and stability in the international order [1][6][7]. Group 1: Parade Highlights - The parade will feature a total of 45 formations, including both a review and a display segment, lasting approximately 70 minutes [2]. - A significant portion of the showcased military equipment will be new domestically produced main battle assets, with many making their debut [2][3]. - The air force will present new aircraft, including advanced early warning, fighter, bomber, and transport planes, highlighting the rapid development of China's aerial combat capabilities [2][3]. Group 2: Modern Warfare Equipment - The parade will include the latest equipment designed for modern and future warfare, such as land, sea, air combat groups, and new operational forces like unmanned and cyber warfare units [3][4]. - Notable advancements include high-speed, anti-drone, and strategic missile systems, demonstrating China's strong deterrent capabilities [4][5]. - The military's modernization efforts are evident in the high level of information technology and intelligence in the showcased equipment, reflecting the adaptation to evolving warfare [4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Peace Advocacy - The event serves to remember history, honor martyrs, and emphasize the importance of peace, with a commitment to maintaining international order and justice [6][7]. - Experts highlight that the Chinese military has become one of the most modernized and capable forces globally, contributing to global peace and stability [6]. - The narrative surrounding the parade emphasizes a message of peace rather than revenge, focusing on the importance of historical reflection for future harmony [5][6].

Group 1 - The military industry sector has seen an increase in valuation due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, military trade expansion, policy enhancements, and the emergence of new productive forces, with a reported increase of 23.52% since April 7 [1] - Key reasons for the recent activity in the military sector include the concentration of military orders due to the upcoming end of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2025, and the continuous growth of defense budgets providing long-term support [1] - The explosive growth in military exports driven by global geopolitical tensions has led to increased demand for military equipment, with Chinese products gaining market share due to their cost-effectiveness and performance [1] Group 2 - The verification of performance turning points in core enterprises shows significant growth in net profits and a notable increase in orders in sectors like shipbuilding and aerospace, indicating a positive industry outlook [1] - The upcoming 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War and the expected display of new equipment are anticipated to further stimulate the military sector's growth, as historical data shows significant excess returns around such events [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine, highlighting the significant military actions taken by Russian forces, including the use of 12 million artillery shells and a daily bombardment rate of 30,000 shells compared to Ukraine's 2,000 [3][4][5] - The involvement of North Korea in supplying ammunition and potentially troops to Russia is emphasized, with estimates of 25,000 to 30,000 soldiers on standby [7] - The U.S. response to the situation involves economic measures aimed at cutting off Russia's oil revenue, which is crucial for funding its military operations [9][11] Group 2 - The article outlines the potential impact of U.S. sanctions on countries like China and India, which heavily rely on Russian oil, and the implications for global oil prices and trade dynamics [11][16] - China's control over rare earth elements is highlighted as a strategic advantage, affecting U.S. military supply chains and prompting the U.S. to negotiate for resource access [13] - India's stance on energy procurement is presented as a matter of national sovereignty, with the government unwilling to compromise its energy needs for U.S. interests [16][22] Group 3 - The article suggests a shift in global economic dynamics, with countries moving towards de-dollarization and alternative trade agreements that bypass the U.S. dollar [17][20] - The internal divisions within the EU regarding support for Ukraine are noted, indicating a potential shift in alliances and strategies among member states [20][23] - The conclusion emphasizes that the true contest lies not in military might but in the ability to redefine global economic rules and alliances, marking a departure from unilateral dominance [25]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **defense technology industry** in China, particularly during the **14th Five-Year Plan** period, with an emphasis on the military industry and its growth potential through 2025 [1][3][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Earnings Growth**: The core driver for the military sector's performance is the growth in **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**, with many leading companies achieving strong earnings, which has positively impacted stock prices [3][11]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Multiple thematic investment opportunities are available, including **low-altitude economy**, **commercial aerospace**, **deep-sea technology**, and **controlled nuclear fusion**, all of which are expected to have high growth potential in the medium to long term [1][8][22]. - **Military Trade Growth**: The military trade sector is identified as a significant growth area, with increasing support from state-owned enterprises and the potential for new generation equipment like the **Yun-20** and **J-35A** to enhance global competitiveness [7][20][21]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Domestic Demand**: China's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP is lower than that of Western countries, indicating a potential growth space of **20%-100%** [11]. - **Export Potential**: The current military trade market share for China is about **6%**, with a potential increase of over **60%** as compared to countries like France and Russia [12]. - **Aerospace Sector Dynamics**: The aerospace sector is highlighted as a key area, with a focus on new models, aftermarket demand, and military-to-civilian transitions. The **C919** aircraft is noted for its significant domestic replacement potential [5][14][16]. Future Trends and Projections - **Ammunition Sector**: The ammunition sector is experiencing a turning point, driven by global demand due to conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war, leading to increased production and modernization efforts [4][19][17]. - **Investment Strategy**: A value-driven investment approach is recommended, focusing on high-quality blue-chip stocks that can deliver absolute and excess returns [13][10]. - **Emerging Technologies**: The call emphasizes the importance of emerging technologies in the defense sector, particularly in high-speed weapons and low-cost precision-guided munitions, which are expected to see increased demand [6][18]. Conclusion - The defense technology industry in China is poised for significant growth, driven by domestic and international demand, technological advancements, and strategic investments. The focus on EPS growth, military trade, and thematic investments presents a robust landscape for potential investors looking to capitalize on the evolving market dynamics.

Group 1: Economic Implications - The U.S. defense budget for fiscal year 2025 is projected to be $895.2 billion, accounting for 40% of global military spending, which underpins the U.S. military presence in over 800 bases worldwide [2] - The stability of U.S. Treasury bonds is closely tied to the military's ability to maintain global order, with $9.2 trillion in U.S. debt maturing in 2025, raising concerns about potential market reactions to military failures [3] - A significant sell-off of U.S. debt due to military failures could lead to soaring interest rates, directly impacting U.S. fiscal sustainability [3] Group 2: Technological Competitiveness - The U.S. military's leading position in military technology is crucial for maintaining competitiveness, with historical examples like ARPANET showcasing military-driven technological advancements [4] - Recent setbacks in key areas such as hypersonic weapons have exposed vulnerabilities in U.S. military technology, potentially undermining global trust in U.S. technological superiority [4] - Non-traditional warfare tactics employed by smaller nations could challenge U.S. military dominance, as demonstrated by attacks on U.S. naval assets [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Consequences - Military failures could lead to a rapid decline in U.S. influence, with allies potentially seeking partnerships with countries like China and Russia, undermining U.S. strategic initiatives [6] - The potential for a liquidity crisis in the U.S. debt market could arise if Asian countries accelerate the sale of U.S. bonds in response to military setbacks, threatening the global financial system [6] - The collapse of U.S. military hegemony could trigger a shift towards a multipolar world, challenging the existing global order [7]