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半导体设备事件催化不断,关注半导体设备ETF(159516)
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-25 02:26
行业热点层面,半导体设备ETF(159516)单日上涨9.55%,近5日涨跌幅达到21.39%。我们认为短期以事件催化居多,包括国产光刻机的测试、制造 消息;华为公布AI算力全景图,进一步利好半导体需求等等。但从长期来看,国产替代是半导体设备领域的主线,在AI科技竞争的背景下,我国有望产 生半导体制造领域新的突破,建议投资者持续关注。 来源:WIND 无论是股票ETF/LOF基金,都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种,其预期收益及预期风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币 市场基金。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票,会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风险,提请投资者注意。 光刻机与半导体设备板块的投资逻辑联系紧密。半导体设备行业的投资逻辑主要围绕国产替代和自主可控展开,尤其在光刻机、蚀刻机等国产化率低 于20%的关键环节,中国企业正从0到1突破,逐步替代海外厂商。国内晶圆厂也逐渐从囤积进口设备,转向本土设备供应商,资本开支持续提升,订单从 海外巨头转向国内企业,国产化空间庞大,量价齐升效应显著。因此,光刻机层面的消息与板块投资逻辑较为吻合。 来源:诚通证券 基本面角度,目前 ...
关税再次暂停90天,A50直线拉升意味着什么?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-16 10:40
从市场反应看,12日早盘A股算力概念股集体冲高,创业板指涨幅近1%领先主板,印证了科技板块的高弹性。这种"关税减免-出口增长-企业盈利改善"的传 导逻辑,正在多个行业上演。当前海外边际改善,美联储降息预期升温,美元走弱趋势将持续利好新兴市场,尤其是科技属性更强的港股和A股成长板块。 其中创业板50指数成份股集中在电力设备、通信、电子三大赛道,权重占比超61.5%,完美契合产业升级主线。 图2:创业板50指数行业权重分布 来源:Wind,截至:2025.8.11 8月12日一早开盘,受到联合声明的——双方同意将24%的"对等关税"再暂停90天,同时保留10%的基础税率的影响,12日早盘亚太市场集体上扬,A50期指 也直线飙升近1.5%,随后带来连续两日的上涨。此次事件带来的利好究竟有多大? 图1:A50期指当月连续指数早盘上涨近1.5%后开启连续两日的上涨 来源:Wind,截至:2025.8.16 A50的上扬代表着国际投资者对A股市场核心蓝筹股短期未来走势的集体预期、情绪和风险判断。不过对于市场的影响其实体现在预期里,若之前对此有预 期,则消息兑现之后,市场反而可能回落。 个人认为,A股回调即会带来配置良机。 ...
帮主郑重:中美关税暂停90天!三个中长线机会与两大暗雷
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-12 02:54
家人们,中美这盘大棋又落新子了!刚出炉的斯德哥尔摩联合声明,把24%的关税暂停期再延90天——看似平淡的官宣,实则暗藏波涛。我是帮主郑重, 20年财经老炮,今儿带你们扒开文件缝儿,看透千亿级投资机会与风险! 一、暂停关税的"真金白银":谁受益?谁悬心? 1. 3800亿商品的"喘息窗口" • 美国暂停的24%关税覆盖1120类商品,涉及3800亿美元贸易额,包括半导体、新能源设备、自行车等核心出口品类。 • 直接影响:浙江家电、广东机械等出口企业成本直降,利润率提升3%-5%,圣诞订单锁定期获缓冲。 2. 非关税反制同步暂停 中方暂停技术出口限制、投资审查等反制措施,半导体设备、生物医药等领域合作现松动空间。但注意:美对华AI芯片管制未解除,高端技术博弈仍在 深水区。 1. 博弈逻辑质变:"边打边谈"成新常态 从日内瓦到斯德哥尔摩,三个月三轮高级别会谈,中美建立"阶段性稳定机制"——谈不拢核心矛盾,但默契避免失控。这种"冷冻对抗"模式,实为全球化 撕裂下的理性妥协。 2. 美方战略留白:总统保留最终杀招 关税暂停为国内产业升级抢出时间窗口: 中美这场博弈,像极了一场带着镣铐的探戈——90天暂停期不是终点,而是 ...
A股收评:3500点失而复得,创业板有望创年内新高
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 01:26
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a dramatic divergence, with technology stocks surging while traditional sectors like banking and coal are facing significant declines [3][4][6]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3500 points during the day but rebounded to close at 3505 points, indicating underlying volatility despite a minimal overall gain [3]. - Over 4000 stocks in the market were in the red, particularly in traditional sectors, while the ChiNext Index rose sharply by 38 points, showcasing a stark contrast in performance [3][4]. Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 1.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 155 billion yuan compared to the previous week, with most new capital flowing into technology stocks [3]. - The Agricultural Bank of China saw its stock price drop by 2.88%, just five days after hitting a historical high, indicating a significant capital withdrawal from traditional sectors [4]. Technology Sector Highlights - Nvidia's stock price surpassed $1280, igniting a rally in A-share optical module stocks [3]. - Industrial robot orders surged, with Estun receiving a large order of 12,000 units from BYD in July [3]. - Domestic semiconductor equipment companies are accelerating their market presence, with Zhongwei Company winning a bid for a 28nm etching machine order from Yangtze Memory Technologies [3]. Investment Trends - AI-related stocks are gaining traction, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and New Yisheng seeing significant price increases [4]. - The China AI 50 Index rose by 3.2%, and major players like Ningde Times significantly contributed to the ChiNext Index's performance [4][5]. - The ChiNext Index is only 48 points away from its yearly high, with a notable increase in ETF subscriptions and trading volumes [5]. Valuation Discrepancies - AI concept stocks are experiencing inflated valuations, with Kunlun Wanwei's stock hitting the daily limit despite a 35% drop in net profit [5]. - In contrast, the banking sector is underperforming, with the price-to-earnings ratio of China Merchants Bank dropping to 5.8, a ten-year low [5]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is facing a significant unlocking of shares, with a total value of 26.2 billion yuan for leading solar company Trina Solar [6]. - There are signs of overheating in the technology sector, with the CPO sector's price-to-book ratio reaching 8.3, surpassing the peak during the 2021 metaverse hype [6]. - The market is undergoing a substantial shake-up, with technology stocks rising and traditional sectors declining, presenting both risks and opportunities for investors [6].