（来源：经济日报） 转自：经济日报 存储芯片进入卖方市场！ 近日，SK海力士在高盛的电话会上发布对存储行业及公司经营的最新观点。该公司认为，全球存储器 产业已彻底转向卖方市场，2026年价格涨势将贯穿全年。 目前，能够直接参与SK海力士、三星电子等存储龙头投资的公募基金并不多见。华泰柏瑞中证韩交所 中韩半导体ETF是目前市场上少数实现跨境布局的产品，开年以来涨幅达25.65％。 此外，A股市场上聚焦半导体投资的相关基金近期反复活跃。有公募表示，以半导体高端设备、关键零 部件、高价值耗材等为核心的存储扩产链，可能是2026年A股半导体投资能见度最高的方向之一，有更 多机会为市场贡献确定性和韧性。 存储价格涨势将贯穿2026年全年 近日，SK海力士在高盛的电话会上发布对存储行业及公司经营的最新观点。SK海力士认为，全球存储 器产业已彻底转向卖方市场，2026年价格涨势将贯穿全年。 公司透露目前DRAM及NAND库存仅剩约4周，且没有任何客户能完全满足需求。更为严峻的是，2026 年高频宽存储器（HBM）产能已提前售罄，标准型DRAM的极度短缺正大幅提升供应商议价权，产业 链已启动长期合约谈判以锁定未来供应。 SK ...

Core Viewpoint - The global memory chip industry has shifted to a seller's market, with price increases expected to continue throughout 2026 [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - SK Hynix reports that DRAM and NAND inventory levels are critically low, with only about 4 weeks of supply remaining, leading to increased bargaining power for suppliers [2] - The demand for memory chips is driven by the surge in AI models and high-performance computing, which exceeds industry expectations [2] - The production capacity for high bandwidth memory (HBM) has been sold out in advance, indicating a significant supply-demand gap [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - SK Hynix's financial report for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, shows record-high revenues of 97.1467 trillion KRW and operating profits of 47.2063 trillion KRW, with a profit margin of 49% [3] - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 32.8 trillion KRW and an operating profit of 19.2 trillion KRW, marking a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34% and 68% respectively [3] - The fiscal year 2025 revenue is projected to increase by approximately 30 trillion KRW compared to 2024, with operating profits expected to double [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Huatai-PB CSI Korea Semiconductor ETF has seen a year-to-date increase of 25.65%, providing investors with a channel to benefit from the rising memory prices [4] - Fund managers express optimism about the semiconductor investment landscape, particularly in high-end equipment and key components related to memory expansion [4][6] - The semiconductor industry is viewed as being in the middle of an innovation cycle, with AI-related capital expenditures expected to remain high through 2026 [5] Group 4: Sector Focus - Investment managers highlight three key areas: domestic computing power, wafer fab expansion, and military semiconductors, with domestic computing power being a core growth driver [6] - The expansion of wafer fabs is expected to benefit from AI demand and supply shortages, creating upward potential for related equipment and materials [6] - The military semiconductor sector is anticipated to see growth driven by increased demand from commercial aerospace and government planning initiatives [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the anticipation surrounding Micron's upcoming earnings report and its potential to shed light on the demand for AI-related memory products, particularly in the context of recent concerns about an AI bubble [1][2] - The first observation point is Micron's role as a "bellwether" in the AI supply chain, where its shipment and order data can directly reflect the true demand for memory driven by AI computing [1] - The second focus is on the profitability structure influenced by High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), which is the highest-margin product line in the memory industry, and whether Micron can sustain overall gross margin growth through advanced HBM products [1] - The third point addresses the capacity crowding effect of HBM on the overall memory supply and demand, with concerns that resource allocation towards HBM may further compress the supply of traditional DRAM and NAND chips, impacting pricing trends [1] - The fourth observation highlights the shipment momentum of enterprise solid-state drives (eSSD), which are becoming a second growth engine for Micron as AI servers demand higher capacity and performance storage solutions [1] Group 2 - The final key point discusses Micron's outlook on future memory demand and pricing trends, particularly in light of recent market sentiment following Broadcom and Oracle's earnings calls, which did not fully restore market confidence [2] - There is a market expectation that if Micron can provide clear demand visibility through its earnings data and forward guidance, it could help uplift the AI sector and stabilize technology stocks in the short term [2]

Core Insights - A study indicates that most core technologies required for advanced packaging of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) are held by countries outside of South Korea [1] - South Korean companies excel in manufacturing and stacking HBM but are overly reliant on foreign companies for raw materials and equipment, which may expose them to patent litigation risks in the future [1][2] - TSMC and Adeia from the U.S. are leaders in hybrid bonding technology, with Adeia holding the most valuable patents based on a review of over 10,000 related patents from 2003 to 2022 [1] Patent Landscape - According to K-PEG ratings, TSMC ranks first in the number of high-quality patents above A3 level, followed by Samsung, Micron, and IBM [2] - China is rapidly growing in the memory sector, with companies like Yangtze Memory Technologies holding core technologies, including Xtacking, which are registered across South Korea, the U.S., Japan, Europe, and China [2] - Although South Korea holds the second-largest number of HBM-related patents, their quality and impact are below average due to reliance on imported core equipment and materials, posing risks to domestic companies [2] Future Implications - Companies may currently prefer to negotiate licensing agreements privately, but issues may escalate into litigation as hybrid bonding commercializes in 2026 [2]

Core Insights - SK Hynix reveals its new generation memory technology blueprint aimed at overcoming the "memory wall" barrier in the AI era, with a goal to become a "full-line AI memory creator" [1][2] - The company emphasizes that memory is evolving from a standard component to a core value product in the AI industry, highlighting the need for improved memory performance to keep pace with processor advancements [1] Group 1: AI Memory Technology - SK Hynix's new strategy includes three main initiatives: Custom HBM, AI DRAM (AI-D), and AI NAND (AI-N) [1][2] - AI DRAM is further divided into three categories: AI-D O (Optimization) focuses on low power and high performance, AI-D B (Breakthrough) aims to overcome the "memory wall" with ultra-high capacity and flexible allocation, and AI-D E (Expansion) seeks to broaden DRAM applications beyond data centers to robotics, mobility, and industrial automation [2] - For AI NAND, SK Hynix is preparing three next-generation storage solutions: AI-N P (Performance), AI-N B (Bandwidth), and AI-N D (Density) [2] Group 2: Collaboration with TSMC - SK Hynix is closely collaborating with TSMC on the next generation of HBM base dies, indicating TSMC's growing importance in the AI era [2] - The company is a member of TSMC's "3D Fabric Alliance" established in 2022, and both parties are actively enhancing their cooperation, having signed a memorandum of understanding for HBM4 development last year [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Bank of America has raised its global semiconductor sales outlook, predicting it could approach $1 trillion by 2027, up from the previous estimate of $860 billion [1] - Bank of America reaffirms its five preferred semiconductor stocks: Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Lam Research, and KLA, highlighting their strong positions in data centers and memory outlooks [1] - Despite weak momentum in consumer and automotive markets slightly offsetting gains, the growth prospects for memory, including high bandwidth memory (HBM), standard DRAM, and NAND, have significantly improved [1] Group 2 - Bank of America has also raised its outlook for semiconductor manufacturing equipment spending, estimating it will reach $118 billion in 2025, $128 billion in 2026, and $138 billion in 2027 [2] - The capital intensity is expected to remain between 14% to 17%, which is higher than the long-term average of 13%, reflecting increased chip complexity and demand for AI infrastructure [2]

Core Insights - Longji Technology's storage business revenue surged over 150% year-on-year in the first half of the year, significantly outperforming the industry average, raising questions about the sustainability of this growth [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The storage chip supercycle has begun, driven by three main factors: 1. Explosive demand for AI servers leading to a surge in high bandwidth memory (HBM) demand, with a projected market growth rate of 80% by 2025 [3] 2. Acceleration of domestic substitution as local chip leaders like Yangtze Memory and Changxin Memory ramp up production, with domestic orders for Longji Technology reaching 40% in the first half of 2025 [3] 3. Technological upgrades from DDR4 to DDR5, increasing packaging prices by over 30%, and advancements in 3D NAND stacking from 128 layers to over 200 layers [3] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - Longji Technology has three strengths and three weaknesses: - Strengths: 1. Strong technical barriers, being one of only three global companies capable of HBM packaging [4] 2. Deep customer relationships with major clients like Apple, Qualcomm, and domestic leaders [4] 3. Leading capacity layout with a monthly production capacity of 82,000 chips and an industry-leading yield rate of 99.5% [4] - Weaknesses: 1. A 24% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of 2025 due to increased financial costs from the acquisition of a semiconductor company [5] 2. Operating cash flow decreased by 22.7% year-on-year, indicating pressure from significant expansion investments [5] 3. High valuation with a dynamic PE of 35.3 times for 2025, above the industry average of 28 times [5] Group 3: Valuation Assessment - Short-term valuation is under pressure with a projected PE of 35.3 times for 2025 and 29.0 times for 2026, while long-term valuation could be reasonable if storage business growth continues, potentially lowering PE to 24.3 times by 2027 [6] - If the storage business share increases from the current "mid-teens" to over 30%, the valuation could shift from "packaging factory" to "high-end manufacturing," targeting a PE of 40 times [6] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Ideal buying point is at or below 35 yuan, with current price at 38.73 yuan being slightly high [7] - Position management suggests limiting single stock positions to 8% and total positions in the packaging sector to 15% [7] - Key indicators for monitoring include monthly capacity utilization rates and HBM packaging yield rates [7]