Core Insights - Longji Technology's storage business revenue surged over 150% year-on-year in the first half of the year, significantly outperforming the industry average, raising questions about the sustainability of this growth [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The storage chip supercycle has begun, driven by three main factors: 1. Explosive demand for AI servers leading to a surge in high bandwidth memory (HBM) demand, with a projected market growth rate of 80% by 2025 [3] 2. Acceleration of domestic substitution as local chip leaders like Yangtze Memory and Changxin Memory ramp up production, with domestic orders for Longji Technology reaching 40% in the first half of 2025 [3] 3. Technological upgrades from DDR4 to DDR5, increasing packaging prices by over 30%, and advancements in 3D NAND stacking from 128 layers to over 200 layers [3] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - Longji Technology has three strengths and three weaknesses: - Strengths: 1. Strong technical barriers, being one of only three global companies capable of HBM packaging [4] 2. Deep customer relationships with major clients like Apple, Qualcomm, and domestic leaders [4] 3. Leading capacity layout with a monthly production capacity of 82,000 chips and an industry-leading yield rate of 99.5% [4] - Weaknesses: 1. A 24% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of 2025 due to increased financial costs from the acquisition of a semiconductor company [5] 2. Operating cash flow decreased by 22.7% year-on-year, indicating pressure from significant expansion investments [5] 3. High valuation with a dynamic PE of 35.3 times for 2025, above the industry average of 28 times [5] Group 3: Valuation Assessment - Short-term valuation is under pressure with a projected PE of 35.3 times for 2025 and 29.0 times for 2026, while long-term valuation could be reasonable if storage business growth continues, potentially lowering PE to 24.3 times by 2027 [6] - If the storage business share increases from the current "mid-teens" to over 30%, the valuation could shift from "packaging factory" to "high-end manufacturing," targeting a PE of 40 times [6] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Ideal buying point is at or below 35 yuan, with current price at 38.73 yuan being slightly high [7] - Position management suggests limiting single stock positions to 8% and total positions in the packaging sector to 15% [7] - Key indicators for monitoring include monthly capacity utilization rates and HBM packaging yield rates [7]