有友食品（603697.SH） 证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 28 年 月 日 成长亮眼，利润提速 股价走势 -10% 32% 74% 116% 158% 200% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 有友食品 沪深300 作者 事件：有友食品 25H1 实现营收 7.7 亿元，同比+45.6%，归母净利润 1.1 亿元，同比+42.5%，扣非净利润 0.9 亿元，同比+52.5%。其中 25Q2 营 收 3.9 亿元，同比+52.4%，归母净利润 0.6 亿元，同比+77.0%，扣非净 利润 0.5 亿元，同比+87.9%，收入及利润均为业绩预告中枢。拟中期分 红 9836.9 万元，分红率达 90.7%。 会员店放量清晰，量贩电商快速推进。25H1 有友食品营收同比+45.6%至 7.7 亿元，新兴渠道快速扩容支撑公司营收延续高速增长趋势。25Q2 营收 同比+52.4%至 3.9 亿元，环比 Q1 进一步加速，核心增量来自于会员店、 量贩零食店、线上等新兴渠道。渠道维度看，25Q2 线下渠道营收同比 +49.1%至 3.6 亿元，其中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the overall return is expected to be within -5% to 5% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [24]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a valuation shift during the earnings window, with a focus on opportunities in undervalued stocks and potential rebounds following recent corrections [4][11]. - The SW food and beverage index increased by 0.8%, ranking 26th among 31 sub-industries, with notable gains in the liquor, health products, and beer sectors, while soft drinks and dairy products saw declines [4][11]. - The report highlights the rebound in the liquor sector, particularly the SW liquor index, which rose by 1.41%, suggesting a recovery from previous overly pessimistic expectations [16][20]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with a focus on the upcoming demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [20]. - Key brands such as Guizhou Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended for investment due to their stable pricing and market performance [20][23]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is facing a correction due to downward adjustments in earnings expectations for leading companies, particularly in soft drinks and snacks [21]. - Innovative product launches in the snack segment are highlighted, with companies like Youyou Foods and Weidong introducing new items to capture market share [21][22]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in ready-to-drink beverages and the increasing competition in the tea drink market, with a positive outlook for brands like Mixue and Gu Ming [21][22]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Luzhou Laojiao: Buy rating with expected EPS growth [23] - Shanxi Fenjiu: Hold rating with stable performance [23] - Dongpeng Beverage: Buy rating with significant revenue growth forecast [22][23] - Youyou Foods: Buy rating with strong market recovery potential [23] - Nongfu Spring: Buy rating with expected market share recovery [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [9][15]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by the expansion of membership channels and new product launches, with a forecasted revenue of 7.46-7.98 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.91%-50.77% [4][5]. - The company is focusing on optimizing channel structures and innovating products, with membership supermarkets and snack wholesale channels becoming key growth drivers [5][6]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the company's profitability, with net profit for the first half of 2025 expected to be between 1.05-1.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.91%-47.57% [4][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 12.43 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 5.3 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 13.3% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.59 [3]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a revenue forecast adjustment for 2025-2027 to 16.97/20.06/22.49 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.51%/18.22%/12.11% [7]. - The expected net profit for the same period is revised to 2.21/2.65/2.99 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 40.42%/20.0%/12.91% [9]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The report notes that the shift in channel structure has impacted gross margins, with a higher proportion of low-margin sales through membership supermarkets and snack channels [6]. - Despite the increase in absolute expenses due to brand investments in online and traditional channels, the overall expense ratio is expected to decline [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Youyou Food [1] Core Views - Youyou Food continues to experience high growth in performance, driven by both product and channel expansion [4][5] - The company is expected to benefit from a low base effect, with projected total revenue for H1 2025 between 746 million to 798 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 41% to 51% [4] - The introduction of new products in the Sam's Club channel is contributing positively to sales, with significant monthly sales figures for key products [5] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For H1 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be between 105 million to 112 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38% to 48% [4] - The second quarter of 2025 is expected to show even stronger growth, with total revenue projected between 363 million to 415 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43% to 63% [4] Product and Channel Development - The company has successfully introduced new products such as "Light Enjoy Time" and "Sour Soup Double Crisp" in the Sam's Club channel, with strong sales performance [5] - The penetration rate in the snack wholesale market is steadily increasing, with expectations for significant growth in traditional channels, particularly in previously underserved regions [5] Profit Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 0.50, 0.61, and 0.72 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25, 20, and 17 times [6] - The company is expected to maintain strong sales momentum in the Sam's Club channel and continue to benefit from the growth in snack wholesale and e-commerce channels [6] Financial Projections - The projected main revenue for 2025 is 1,586 million yuan, with a growth rate of 34.1% [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is forecasted at 215 million yuan, with a growth rate of 36.4% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company has released its 2025H1 performance forecast, indicating accelerated revenue growth in 2025Q2, with improvements in net profit margins both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, showcasing effective channel expansion and promising sustained growth [1]. Investment Highlights - The investment recommendation is to maintain a "Buy" rating. The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth due to successful market expansion, leading to an overall improvement in profitability. The EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 0.49 (+0.03), 0.60 (+0.02), and 0.70 (+0.02) yuan respectively. Based on comparable companies and the notable growth trend, a 33X PE for 2025 has been assigned, with the target price adjusted to 16.2 yuan [2]. - For 2025H1, the expected revenue is between 746-798 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.91%-50.77%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 105-112 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.91%-47.57%. The non-recurring net profit is expected to be between 89-97 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.82%-58.90%. For 2025Q2, the single-quarter revenue is anticipated to be between 363-415 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42.7%-63.2% [2]. - The net profit margin for 2025Q2 is estimated to be 15.0%, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.1 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9 percentage points. The non-recurring net profit margin is expected to be 12.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.1 percentage points. The profitability recovery in 2025Q2 is attributed to a low base in 2024Q2, despite a decrease in investment income in 2025Q1 [3]. Channel Expansion and Product Development - The company continues to innovate within the Sam's Club channel, launching new vegetarian and meat products, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth. Amidst a shrinking traditional retail environment, the company has achieved structural breakthroughs by establishing a membership-based retail system and deepening penetration into mainstream snack wholesale channels while enhancing e-commerce operations [3]. - The ongoing development of new flavored snacks and the expansion of the product matrix are anticipated to support sustained sales growth, reflecting the company's commitment to adapting to market changes and consumer preferences [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by strong product innovation and expansion in various sales channels [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company anticipates revenue between 746-798 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.91%-50.77% [1]. - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 105-112 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37.91%-47.57% [1]. - The company forecasts Q2 2025 revenue of 363-415 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42.71%-63.24% [1]. Group 2: Product Innovation and Market Expansion - The company has been actively expanding its product offerings in membership stores, introducing items like vegetarian gift packs and sour soup snacks, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue in the second half of the year [1]. - The company is focusing on customized products to meet the growing demand from downstream channels, enhancing collaborations with snack wholesale systems and large supermarkets [1]. - Recent product development has accelerated, with new items such as chicken feet and tiger skin chicken feet being added to the existing lineup, although the current market penetration of these new products remains low [2]. Group 3: Long-term Growth Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the marinated chicken feet segment and is expected to continue expanding its product categories while embracing emerging sales channels [2]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.675 billion, 2.021 billion, and 2.426 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 41.66%, 20.67%, and 20.02% [2]. - The expected net profit for the same period is projected to be 219 million, 261 million, and 317 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.36%, 19.24%, and 21.32% [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The new consumption concept is prominent, with incremental market and "self-satisfaction" consumption providing growth momentum. The food and beverage index fell by 1.1% from June 2 to June 6, ranking 27th among primary sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.9 percentage points. Sub-industries such as snacks (+4.6%), health products (+1.7%), and meat products (+1.1%) performed relatively well. Companies with new consumption concepts in the food and beverage sector showed good growth, particularly those expanding into new channels, new product categories, or new markets [4][11][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Viewpoints - The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 1.1%, ranking 27th out of 28 industries, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 1.9 percentage points. The snack, health product, and meat product sectors showed relative strength [11][12]. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's index fell by 1.1%, with snacks, health products, and meat products leading in performance. Individual stocks such as Junyao Health, *ST Spring, and Huabao shares saw significant gains, while companies like Kuaijishan, ST Jia Jia, and Lihai Food faced declines [12][16]. Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For instance, the price of whole milk powder was $4,173 per ton, down 3.7% month-on-month but up 20% year-on-year. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.1 yuan per kilogram, down 0.3% month-on-month and down 8.4% year-on-year [17][21]. Alcohol Industry News - Kuaijishan's "One Day One Smoke" sparkling yellow wine has begun its招商 (investment promotion). The beer production from large-scale enterprises in China for the first four months of 2025 was 11.44 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%. However, April's production showed a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, indicating a recovery trend in the sector [40][41]. Memorandum - Attention is drawn to the shareholder meeting of New Dairy Industry scheduled for June 10, 2025. Four companies will hold shareholder meetings, and two companies will have restricted shares released [42][43]. Recommended Portfolio - The recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Ximai Food. Shanxi Fenjiu faces short-term demand pressure but has high medium-term growth certainty. Guizhou Moutai is focusing on sustainable development and increasing dividend rates. Ximai Food is experiencing steady growth in its oatmeal business and is rapidly expanding new channels [5][44].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The new consumption concept is prominent, with incremental market growth and "self-satisfaction consumption" providing growth momentum [4][12] - From June 2 to June 6, the food and beverage index declined by 1.1%, ranking 27th among primary sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.9 percentage points [12][13] - Companies with new consumption concepts in the food and beverage sector showed good performance, particularly in snacks, health products, and meat products [12][13] Summary by Sections Weekly Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a decline, but companies with new consumption concepts are performing well, particularly in snacks and small food companies [12] - The expansion of new channels, new product categories, and new market entries is driving growth in the sector [12] Market Performance - The food and beverage index underperformed the market, with snacks (+4.6%), health products (+1.7%), and meat products (+1.1%) leading the sub-industry performance [13][16] - Individual stocks such as Junyao Health and Huasheng Group showed significant gains, while companies like Kuaijishan and ST Jiayi faced declines [13][17] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with the price of whole milk powder at $4,173 per ton, down 3.7% month-on-month but up 20% year-on-year [18][22] - Domestic fresh milk prices are on a downward trend, currently at 3.1 yuan per kilogram, down 8.4% year-on-year [18][22] Alcohol Industry News - Kuaijishan's "One Day One Smoke" sparkling yellow wine has begun its marketing campaign, indicating a focus on enhancing brand recognition and expanding market reach [41] - The beer production volume for large-scale enterprises in China showed a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year for the first four months of 2025, but April saw a 4.8% increase [41] Recommended Companies - Recommended companies include Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Ximai Food, with a focus on their growth potential and market strategies [5][45]