Macro Perspective - Gold and silver prices experienced a pullback during the week of January 16, 2026. President Trump expressed a desire for Hassett to remain in his current position rather than move to the Federal Reserve, making former Fed governor Kevin Walsh a leading candidate for the next Fed chair [2][10] - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson stated that interest rates are aligned with neutral levels and that the current policy stance is "well-positioned." The economy is expected to grow by 2% in the short term, with the unemployment rate remaining stable [2][10] - Fed Governor Bowman indicated that current monetary policy remains moderately restrictive and that officials should be prepared to lower rates further if the job market does not improve. She noted that inflationary pressures are easing and emphasized the need to monitor risks to the Fed's "full employment" mission [2][10] Fundamental Data - As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold warehouse receipts totaled 100,053 kg, an increase of 2,400 kg from the previous week. Silver warehouse receipts changed by 6,581 kg to 626,843 kg [3][11] - On the Comex, gold inventories decreased by 176,016.78 ounces to 36,135,901.13 ounces, while silver inventories fell by 10,584,062.04 ounces to 429,156,441.13 ounces [3][11] - As of January 16, 2026, the SPDR Gold ETF held 1,074.80 tons, and the SLV Silver ETF held 16,073 tons. As of January 13, 2025, speculative net long positions in gold were 136,548 contracts, while silver net long positions were 15,045 contracts [4][12] Market Strategy - Gold is rated as neutral. Recent adjustments in precious metals are notable, with market expectations for Hassett's potential appointment as Fed chair leading to increased uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, which negatively impacts gold prices. However, the long-term logic for gold remains intact as a substitute for dollar assets [5][13] - Silver is also rated as neutral. The price of silver has seen a significant pullback, and while it is still advisable to buy on dips for hedging, there is a need for careful position management and strict stop-loss execution due to silver's inherent volatility [6][14] - An arbitrage strategy suggests shorting the gold-silver ratio at high levels, while options strategies are currently on hold [15]

Group 1 - Precious metals continue to show strong performance, with the main contract for silver (沪银2602) closing at 16,210 CNY/kg, an increase of 6.06%, and gold (沪金2602) at 1,000.86 CNY/g, up by 2.10% [2][8] - As of December 19, the latest holdings for gold SPDR ETF stand at 1,052.54 tons, while silver SLV ETF holds 16,018 tons [2][8] Group 2 - In macroeconomic terms, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by 64,000 in November, surpassing the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [3][9] - The average hourly wage in November grew by 3.5% year-on-year, marking the slowest growth since May 2021 [3][9] - The U.S. November core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, the slowest increase since early 2021, and overall CPI increased by 2.7%, both below market expectations [3][9] - The weaker employment data may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain a loose monetary policy stance, which could support precious metals [3][9] - The market has priced in the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, which has not significantly impacted the global market or posed a clear downside risk to precious metal prices [3][9] - The long-term logic of gold as an alternative to dollar assets remains unchanged, maintaining an optimistic outlook on gold [3][9] - Silver prices are strong due to a shortage in the physical market, reaching historical highs, with potential for a phase of low ratio correction against gold [3][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant decrease in risk aversion due to easing trade policies, leading to fluctuations in gold prices [1] - As of April 25, COMEX gold futures closed at $3,330.2 per ounce, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.05% after reaching a high of $3,500 per ounce earlier in the week [1] - The SPDR Gold ETF saw a decrease of 6.02 tons, bringing its total to 946.27 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold warehouse receipts fell by 30 kilograms [1] Group 2 - The analysis from Dongwu Securities highlights a recovery in market risk appetite following the easing of trade tensions and a shift in President Trump's stance on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which has restored some credibility to the dollar [1] - The article notes that despite the recent pullback in gold prices, the fundamentals supporting the current gold bull market remain intact, suggesting potential buying opportunities after price corrections [1]