Core Viewpoint - The domestic precious metals futures market experienced a collective decline on January 8, with significant drops in various contracts [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contracts for silver (沪银2604), nickel (沪镍2602), and platinum (铂2606) all fell by more than 5% [2] - Copper (沪铜2602) and palladium (钯2606) contracts saw declines exceeding 3% [2] - Gold (沪金2602) contract experienced a drop of over 1% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [2]. - Silver: Prices have corrected from high levels [2]. - Copper: The LME spot premium has declined, and price increases have slowed [2]. - Zinc: Prices are oscillating at high levels [2]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2]. - Tin: Bullish capital has been blocked, and prices have fallen after reaching a high [2]. - Aluminum: Prices have slightly declined [2]. - Alumina: Prices are oscillating within a range [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: It is stronger than electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Prices are oscillating to find a direction [2]. - Palladium: Prices are maintaining an oscillating trend [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between the burden of real - world pressure and the narrative of cycle transformation, with wide - range oscillations [2]. - Stainless steel: The real - world fundamentals are dragging down the market, and the market is mainly betting on Indonesian policies [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 984.84, down 2.22%; the trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 391,541, an increase of 46,319. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 18140, down 0.35%; the trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 1,127,485, a decrease of 315,320 [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 97,704 kg, unchanged; the inventory of Shanghai Silver was 755,754 kg, a decrease of 40985 kg [5]. - **News**: China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months. The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data and other macro - news have been released [5][7]. 3.2 Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 103,410, down 1.81%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 758,590, an increase of 114,266. The closing price of LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 12,866, down 2.93% [8]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 96,474 tons, an increase of 3,203 tons; the LME spot premium declined [8]. - **News**: China's copper ore imports in November 2025 increased, and there were developments in copper mines such as labor - contract negotiations in Chile and the progress of domestic copper mines [8][10]. 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24330, up 0.14%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 187735, an increase of 10560. The closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 3245.5, up 1.17% [11]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc was 40919 tons, an increase of 74 tons; the LME Zinc inventory was 105500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons [11]. - **News**: China's December foreign exchange reserves increased, and there were international geopolitical news such as the US' "commission - selling" of Venezuelan oil [12]. 3.4 Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17830, up 1.77%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 83341, an increase of 26456. The closing price of LME Lead 3M electronic disk was 2071, up 2.04% [14]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead was 13439 tons, a decrease of 25 tons; the LME Lead inventory was 230425 tons, a decrease of 2925 tons [14]. - **News**: The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data and other macro - news have been released [15]. 3.5 Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 359,050, up 2.93%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 459,909, an increase of 134,924. The closing price of LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 44,650, up 0.34% [17]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,780 tons, a decrease of 306 tons; the LME Tin inventory was 5,405 tons, a decrease of 15 tons [17]. - **News**: The memory market has entered a "super - bull market", and there were policies to accelerate the upgrade of intelligent terminals [18]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24360, up 25; the trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 639637, an increase of 87968. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2938, up 120; the trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 1854026, an increase of 1136372. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23035, up 40; the trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 19559, an increase of 1289 [20]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 8.50 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 50.18 million tons, a decrease of 0.25 million tons [20]. - **News**: The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data and the ISM service industry PMI data have been released [21]. 3.7 Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Platinum Futures 2606 was 598.50, down 2.97%; the trading volume of Guangzhou Platinum was 82,828 kg, an increase of 17,632 kg. The closing price of Palladium Futures 2606 was 475.95, up 0.86%; the trading volume of Guangzhou Palladium was 44,238 kg, an increase of 8,209 kg [23]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of NYMEX Platinum was 645,366 ounces, unchanged; the inventory of NYMEX Palladium was 211,306 ounces, unchanged [23]. - **News**: There were international news such as Zelensky's statement on the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US' actions regarding Venezuelan oil [26]. 3.8 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 147,720, up 7,920; the trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 1,132,256, an increase of 393,922. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 13,885, up 490; the trading volume of the stainless steel main contract was 547,902, an increase of 243,022 [27]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian government has taken measures such as suspending the issuance of new smelting licenses and revising the benchmark price formula for nickel ore [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metal prices have experienced a significant pullback, with the main contract for gold (沪金2602) closing at 984.84 CNY per gram, down 3.11%, and silver (沪银2602) at 18,140 CNY per kilogram, down 3.96% [2][7]. Price Adjustment - The recent adjustment in precious metal prices has been previously indicated, particularly for silver, which has seen a rise exceeding fundamental pricing logic since December, driven by tight spot supply and low inventory levels [2][8]. - The market is facing bearish factors, including a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's easing pace expected in 2026, stable U.S. economic data, and rising raw material prices potentially leading to inflationary pressures that may suppress the likelihood of unexpected easing by the Fed [2][8]. Index Weight Adjustment - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will undergo an annual weight adjustment starting January 8, 2026. Due to the strong performance of gold and silver over the past three years, their weights in the index have significantly exceeded target levels, which may create short-term bearish pressure on gold and silver prices [2][8]. Market Outlook - The long-term logic of gold as a substitute for dollar assets remains fundamentally unchanged, maintaining an optimistic view on gold [2][8]. - Silver prices have shown strength due to spot shortages, reaching historical highs, but the price volatility necessitates careful position management and strict stop-loss execution, with caution advised against profit-taking risks during high-level fluctuations [2][8].

Group 1 - Precious metals continue to show strong performance, with the main contract for silver (沪银2602) closing at 16,210 CNY/kg, an increase of 6.06%, and gold (沪金2602) at 1,000.86 CNY/g, up by 2.10% [2][8] - As of December 19, the latest holdings for gold SPDR ETF stand at 1,052.54 tons, while silver SLV ETF holds 16,018 tons [2][8] Group 2 - In macroeconomic terms, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by 64,000 in November, surpassing the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [3][9] - The average hourly wage in November grew by 3.5% year-on-year, marking the slowest growth since May 2021 [3][9] - The U.S. November core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, the slowest increase since early 2021, and overall CPI increased by 2.7%, both below market expectations [3][9] - The weaker employment data may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain a loose monetary policy stance, which could support precious metals [3][9] - The market has priced in the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, which has not significantly impacted the global market or posed a clear downside risk to precious metal prices [3][9] - The long-term logic of gold as an alternative to dollar assets remains unchanged, maintaining an optimistic outlook on gold [3][9] - Silver prices are strong due to a shortage in the physical market, reaching historical highs, with potential for a phase of low ratio correction against gold [3][9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold prices have slightly increased this week, but the intensity of the increase is limited, with a higher probability of range - bound fluctuations. The 10 - year TIPS has risen to 1.93%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate has fallen to 4.19%. The recent price correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned [4][5]. - Silver prices have fluctuated significantly this week. Although there was a small accumulation of futures inventory, the accumulation was limited, and the TD deferred fee remained in the state of short - paying - long. The overseas Lease rate rebounded moderately. The risk of short - squeeze in silver at home and abroad in December is limited, but there is a greater risk of price increase from January to March 2026. After the price recently reached $65, it may enter a shock adjustment stage [5]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Positions) - **Price and Spread** - This week, London gold rose 2.45%, and London silver rose 11.02%. The gold - silver ratio fell from 72.2 last week to 66.6. The gold - silver price ranges are 950 - 990 yuan/gram for gold and 13,700 - 15,000 yuan/kilogram for silver [3][5]. - Overseas, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 30.515 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 spread was - 27.1 dollars/ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力 spread rose to - 0.165 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 spread was - 1.03 dollars/ounce [11][17]. - Domestically, the gold futures - spot spread was - 5.86 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was 29 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 7.28 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 7 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [23][26][30][33]. - **Inventory** - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10.66 tons this week, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.7%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 115.42 tons to 137,581 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 30.3%. Domestic gold futures inventory remained unchanged, and silver futures inventory increased by 132 tons to 802 tons [42][44][48]. - **Positions** - This week, the non - commercial net - long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, while the non - commercial net - long position of silver decreased slightly. The gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 2.82 tons, and the domestic gold ETF decreased by 0.2 tons. The silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 177 tons [50][53][57]. 3.2 Gold's Core Drivers - The correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned this week, and the 10YTIPS has continued to decline [66]. - Information on inflation, retail sales, non - farm employment, industrial manufacturing cycle, financial conditions, economic surprise index, and inflation surprise index is presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [70][73][78][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the re - release of US employment data and the sharp decline of US tech stocks led to a fall in precious metal prices. The US dollar index continued to rise, and the RMB depreciated slightly. The gold and silver prices rebounded before the release of US non - farm data but dropped again after the news that the October non - farm data would not be released. The market expects no interest rate cut this year. The Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences. The Japanese bond market was sold off, and the yen depreciated. The net long position of Shanghai gold began to rise, while that of Shanghai silver continued to decline. This week, attention should be paid to US PCE data, the progress of the US - Ukraine "28 - point plan", and the interest rate decisions of the central banks of New Zealand and South Korea. Overall, the upward momentum of gold and silver has weakened significantly, and they will mainly fluctuate [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Review - **Precious Metal Price Changes**: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed down 3.65% at a minimum of 920.5 yuan/gram, COMEX Gold closed down 0.77% at a minimum of 3997.4 yuan/ounce, Shanghai Silver 2602 closed down 6.61%, and COMEX Silver closed down 2.02%. The US dollar index rose 0.87% to a maximum of 100.395, and the RMB depreciated 0.07% [4][14]. - **US Economic Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 8,000 to 220,000, and the number of continued jobless claims reached a 4 - year high. The September non - farm employment population increased by 119,000, more than twice the expected value, but the non - farm employment numbers in July and August were revised down by a total of 33,000. The September unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The labor participation rate unexpectedly increased, pushing up the unemployment rate. Full - time employment recovered, but industries such as manufacturing and transportation and warehousing continued to lay off workers, and wage growth slowed month - on - month. The October non - farm data will not be released, and the November report will be released after the Fed's December meeting [14][15]. - **Fed's Meeting Minutes**: There were serious differences among participants. Many thought it was not suitable to cut interest rates in December, some were worried about the disorderly decline of the stock market, some thought it might be suitable to cut interest rates in December, and many thought it might be suitable to keep interest rates unchanged this year. Most people thought that interest rate cuts might exacerbate inflation risks. Almost all supported ending the balance - sheet reduction in December, and many supported increasing the proportion of short - term bond holdings [14][16]. - **Japanese Market**: The Japanese bond market was sold off due to concerns about the large - scale fiscal expansion plan of the Kishida government. The 40 - year yield soared to a 2007 high, and the 20 - year and 30 - year yields rose by at least 4 basis points. The yen fell below the key psychological level of 155, and the Nikkei 225 index closed down 3.2%. The market expects the stimulus scale to exceed expectations, and the ruling party even pressured for a supplementary budget of 25 trillion yen [14][16]. - **Other News**: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited the US for the first time in seven years and confirmed that the investment in the US would increase to $1 trillion. The investment agreement includes nearly $142 billion in US defense equipment sales [17]. 3.2 Weekly Review - This week, attention should be paid to the release of US PCE data, China's November official manufacturing PMI, the fact that Trump set November 27 as the deadline for Ukraine to accept the US "28 - point plan", and the interest rate decisions of the central banks of New Zealand and South Korea [14]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Precious Metal Price Indexes**: Data on various precious metal price indexes such as Shanghai Gold 2602, Shanghai Silver 2602, Gold 2512, Silver 2512, SGE Gold T + D, SGE Silver T + D, London Gold Spot, London Silver Spot, the US dollar index, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB are provided, including previous closing prices, highs, lows, changes, and change rates [4]. 3.4 Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Position**: The net long position of Shanghai gold began to rise, with both long and short positions increasing [14]. - **Shanghai Silver Position**: The net long position of Shanghai silver continued to decline, with both long and short positions decreasing [14]. - **CFTC Position**: As of September 23, the net long position of CFTC gold slightly increased, with both long and short positions increasing; the net long position of CFTC silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing. Due to the US government shutdown, the data has not been updated [32]. - **ETF Position**: The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and silver ETF have both stopped falling and slightly increased [35][37]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai gold continued to increase, the inventory of COMEX gold continued to decrease, the inventory of Shanghai silver stopped falling, and the inventory of COMEX silver continued to decrease [39][40][42].