文字早评 2026/01/22 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 2、住建部部长倪虹表示，将继续坚持因城施策、精准施策、一城一策，控增量、去库存、优供给，发 挥好房地产融资"白名单"制度作用，支持房企合理融资需求，支持居民刚性和改善性住房需求； 3、央行：加快建设人民币跨境支付体系 推进跨境支付互联互通； 4、特朗普称美国将大力发展核能。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.02%/-0.01%/-0.75%/-1.93%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.40%/0.37%/-0.84%/-2.18%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.15%/-0.20%/-2.38%/-4.34%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.09%/0.21%/0.09%/-1.00%。 【策略观点】 近期政策更多是担心市场短期过热，慢牛才是政策的长期导向。中长期看政策支持资本市场的态度未变， 短期关注市场的节奏，策略上以逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 【行情资讯】 1、整治政府采购领域"内卷式"竞争，财政部推动解决政府采购异常低价问题； 行情方面：周三，TL 主力合约收于 112.250 ，环比变化 0.6 ...

市场流动性概况 2026-01-19，股指板块成交8249.92亿元，较上一交易日变动-16.16%；持仓金额16426.81亿元，较上一交易日变动 +0.80%；成交持仓比为49.89%。 国债板块成交2604.31亿元，较上一交易日变动-24.36%；持仓金额8109.02亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.24%；成交 持仓比为32.00%。 流动性日报 | 2026-01-20 基本金属板块成交9492.44亿元，较上一交易日变动-32.61%；持仓金额7520.46亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.16%；成 交持仓比为122.38%。 贵金属板块成交13493.87亿元，较上一交易日变动+17.13%；持仓金额6007.25亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.40%；成 交持仓比为297.43%。 能源化工板块成交3923.80亿元，较上一交易日变动-25.34%；持仓金额4629.40亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.81%；成 交持仓比为78.68%。 农产品板块成交3018.31亿元，较上一交易日变动-5.80%；持仓金额6071.48亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.24%；成交 持仓比为46.67%。 黑色建材板块成交2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading and position data of various market sectors, including the stock index, treasury bonds, basic metals, precious metals, energy chemicals, agricultural products, and black building materials, on January 15, 2026, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Plate Liquidity - The report provides the trading volume, position amount, and trading - position ratio of multiple market sectors, as well as their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] 2. Stock Index Plate - On January 15, 2026, the trading volume was 984.469 billion yuan, a - 33.51% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 1692.630 billion yuan, a - 4.14% change; the trading - position ratio was 57.87% [1] 3. Treasury Bond Plate - On January 15, 2026, the trading volume was 391.184 billion yuan, a - 7.16% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 803.469 billion yuan, a + 0.10% change; the trading - position ratio was 48.28% [1] 4. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On January 15, 2026, the basic metals trading volume was 1650.749 billion yuan, a + 24.25% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 844.358 billion yuan, a - 1.19% change; the trading - position ratio was 188.81%. The precious metals trading volume was 1472.785 billion yuan, a + 10.92% change; the position amount was 616.250 billion yuan, a + 1.22% change; the trading - position ratio was 321.32% [1] 5. Energy Chemical Plate - On January 15, 2026, the trading volume was 572.472 billion yuan, a - 7.38% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 481.431 billion yuan, a + 0.03% change; the trading - position ratio was 107.38% [1] 6. Agricultural Products Plate - On January 15, 2026, the trading volume was 294.058 billion yuan, a - 2.60% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 616.292 billion yuan, a - 0.30% change; the trading - position ratio was 43.58% [1] 7. Black Building Materials Plate - On January 15, 2026, the trading volume was 187.874 billion yuan, a - 12.59% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 329.159 billion yuan, a - 0.44% change; the trading - position ratio was 52.76% [2]

Report Summary - **Report Date**: 2026-01-14 - **Report Type**: Market Liquidity Daily Report - **Report Content**: Analyzes the trading volume, position amount, trading volume - position ratio and other data of various market sectors Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading volume, position amount and trading volume - position ratio of different market sectors on 2026 - 01 - 14 and their changes compared with the previous trading day, providing a reference for the market liquidity analysis of each sector [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Overall Market Liquidity - On 2026 - 01 - 14, the trading volume of the stock index sector was 1480.547 billion yuan, a + 28.02% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 1765.792 billion yuan, a + 4.35% change; the trading volume - position ratio was 82.27% [1] - The trading volume of the treasury bond sector was 421.375 billion yuan, a + 43.58% change; the position amount was 802.668 billion yuan, a - 0.05% change; the trading volume - position ratio was 53.48% [1] - The trading volume of the base metal sector was 1328.555 billion yuan, a - 7.72% change; the position amount was 854.565 billion yuan, a + 0.87% change; the trading volume - position ratio was 151.66% [1] - The trading volume of the precious metal sector was 1327.798 billion yuan, a + 16.97% change; the position amount was 608.852 billion yuan, a + 6.01% change; the trading volume - position ratio was 287.64% [1] - The trading volume of the energy and chemical sector was 618.060 billion yuan, a + 17.03% change; the position amount was 481.283 billion yuan, a + 1.45% change; the trading volume - position ratio was 110.10% [1] - The trading volume of the agricultural products sector was 301.910 billion yuan, a - 6.94% change; the position amount was 618.148 billion yuan, a + 0.24% change; the trading volume - position ratio was 44.63% [1] - The trading volume of the black building materials sector was 214.945 billion yuan, a - 10.06% change; the position amount was 330.627 billion yuan, a + 0.03% change; the trading volume - position ratio was 60.58% [2] 2. Stock Index Sector - The report provides data charts on the price change rate, trading volume - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading volume change, and the proportion trend of the top 20 net positions of various varieties in the stock index sector [9][10][11] 3. Treasury Bond Sector - The report provides data charts on the price change rate, trading volume - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading volume change, and the proportion trend of the top 20 net positions of various varieties in the treasury bond sector [19][22][26] 4. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Sector) - The report provides data charts on the price change rate, trading volume - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading volume change rate, and the proportion trend of the top 20 net positions of various varieties in the metal sector [29][30][32] 5. Energy and Chemical Sector - The report provides data charts on the price change rate, trading volume - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading volume change rate, and the proportion trend of the top 20 net positions of major varieties in the energy and chemical sector [39][40][41] 6. Agricultural Products Sector - The report provides data charts on the price change rate, trading volume - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading volume change rate, and the proportion trend of the top 20 net positions of major varieties in the agricultural products sector [46][47][49] 7. Black Building Materials Sector - The report provides data charts on the price change rate, trading volume - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading volume change rate, and the proportion trend of the top 20 net positions of various varieties in the black building materials sector [55][56][58]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, incremental funds entered the market, the margin trading scale increased significantly, and the market trading volume quickly expanded. In the long - term, policies support the capital market. In the short - term, focus on the market rhythm and adopt the strategy of buying on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the market's improved economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. In the first quarter, the bond market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to factors such as the stock market's spring rally, government bond supply, and interest rate cut expectations [7]. - For precious metals, the current international gold price is rising steadily, and the silver price is rising rapidly with significant volatility. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and there are significant risks in opening new long or short positions [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to fluctuate widely. For example, copper prices are supported by tight supply at the mine end, aluminum prices are affected by overseas low inventory and domestic downstream demand, and nickel prices are constrained by oversupply pressure but supported by macro - factors [12][14][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a relatively high level, and the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate in the current range [32][34][38]. - For energy and chemicals, rubber can be considered with a neutral strategy, oil prices can be traded with a low - buying and high - selling strategy, and the strategies for other chemicals vary according to their fundamentals [54][56]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable with partial fluctuations, egg prices may have different trends in the near and far months, and the prices of other agricultural products are also affected by supply and demand and other factors [78][79][81]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Three departments held a symposium on new energy vehicle enterprises, Shanghai issued an action plan for high - level autonomous driving, the central bank carried out a 900 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and tax rebates were offered for housing purchases [2]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of main contracts showed different changes. The central bank carried out a 900 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and China's export and import data in December 2025 were positive. The central bank's net investment was 212.2 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the first quarter [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose, and there were differences in the statements of Fed officials. US PPI and retail sales data were released [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold existing long positions, and avoid opening new long or short positions [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The domestic equity market fluctuated, copper prices rose, LME copper inventory increased, and the import loss of Shanghai copper expanded [10]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The domestic spot market weakened, aluminum prices fluctuated, and inventory increased [13]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose, and inventory and other data were released [15]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices are expected to oscillate widely following the non - ferrous sector [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose, and inventory and other data were released [16]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate widely following the non - ferrous sector [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated, and the prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and nickel iron were stable [17]. - **Strategy**: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose to the daily limit, supply and demand and inventory data changed [19][20]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate following market sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed [22]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious due to the risk of a significant correction, and it is recommended to wait and see or take a light position [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rose, and inventory and other data changed [24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, and it is not cost - effective to chase long positions. Consider shorting near - month contracts on rallies [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose, and inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy**: Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fluctuated, and inventory decreased [28]. - **Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are supported by cost and supply factors, and may strengthen further [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices fluctuated, and inventory and other data changed [31]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to market rumors and policy impacts [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [33]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking and iron - making production rhythms [34]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking coal prices rose, and coke prices fell. Spot prices and inventory data changed [35]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate in the current range, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy impacts [38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices were stable, and inventory decreased. Soda ash prices rose, and inventory increased [39][41]. - **Strategy**: For glass, it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory. For soda ash, the market is weak and lacks substantial positive support [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose slightly [42]. - **Strategy**: The market is affected by market sentiment and cost factors. Pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policy impacts [44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices fell. Supply, demand, and inventory data changed [45][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be under pressure, and polysilicon prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Pay attention to production plans and policy impacts [46][49]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated, and supply and demand data changed [51][52]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral strategy. If the RU2605 contract falls below 16,000, switch to a short - term short strategy [54]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose, and inventory data showed accumulation [55]. - **Strategy**: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. Adopt a low - buying and high - selling strategy and wait and see for now [56]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed, and regional spot prices and MTO profits changed [57]. - **Strategy**: Methanol has limited downward space and is suitable for buying on dips [58]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose, and regional spot prices and basis data changed [59][60]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies due to expected fundamental bearish factors [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices changed. Supply, demand, and inventory data changed [62]. - **Strategy**: It is possible to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [64]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies in the medium - term due to strong supply and weak demand [65]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [66]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. Be cautious of rebound risks in the short - term [67]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [68]. - **Strategy**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage after short - term inventory reduction. Pay attention to mid - term long - buying opportunities [69]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [70][71]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season and follow crude oil for mid - term long - buying opportunities [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [73]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips as the long - term contradiction shifts to production mismatch [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [75]. - **Strategy**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year as the supply - surplus pattern changes [76]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices were stable with partial fluctuations [78]. - **Strategy**: The short - term spot price has limited downward momentum, and the mid - term supply is large. Consider short - selling on rallies and long - buying on dips in the long - term [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with some increases [80]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell near - month contracts on rallies and be cautious of over - valued far - month contracts [81]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Protein meal prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [82]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short - term [83]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Oil prices fluctuated, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [84][85]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic, and oil prices may be near the bottom [86]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [87][88]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the international sugar price to rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February. Temporarily wait and see in the domestic market [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [90][91]. - **Strategy**: The 1 - month USDA report is neutral. Wait for a pullback to go long on Zhengzhou cotton [92].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report presents the market liquidity situation on January 8, 2026, including the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building material sectors, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. 3) Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report shows the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each sector, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][2][8] II. Stock Index Plate - On January 8, 2026, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 749.548 billion yuan, a +4.85% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1533.63 billion yuan, a - 0.01% change; the trading - holding ratio was 48.50% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 402.447 billion yuan, a - 9.52% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 801.06 billion yuan, a +0.04% change; the trading - holding ratio was 49.67% [1] IV. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - The basic metal plate had a trading volume of 1510.586 billion yuan, a +8.85% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 812.67 billion yuan, a - 1.28% change; the trading - holding ratio was 206.26%. The precious metal plate had a trading volume of 1199.595 billion yuan, a - 6.41% change; the holding amount was 504.791 billion yuan, a - 2.37% change; the trading - holding ratio was 347.81% [1] V. Energy Chemical Plate - The trading volume of the energy chemical plate was 555.846 billion yuan, a - 13.80% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 466.087 billion yuan, a +1.99% change; the trading - holding ratio was 114.46% [1] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 363.816 billion yuan, a +0.95% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 597.014 billion yuan, a +0.85% change; the trading - holding ratio was 58.70% [1] VII. Black Building Material Plate - The trading volume of the black building material plate was 401.552 billion yuan, a +12.35% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 329.968 billion yuan, a +1.38% change; the trading - holding ratio was 111.09% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support for the capital market remaining unchanged, the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement in economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. - For precious metals, they may face short - term significant corrections in January 2026 due to the Fed's "holding steady", but this does not mean the end of the upward cycle. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to maintain high - level operation or wide - range fluctuations, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy expectations, and cost changes [11][13][16]. - For black building materials, the commodity market has a strong bullish sentiment, but the black series is still in the bottom - range oscillation stage. Attention should be paid to policy changes and marginal news [31]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different investment strategies. For example, rubber can be traded neutrally or on the sidelines; oil prices can be traded in a range, and short - term waiting is recommended [52][54]. - For agricultural products, the short - term price of live pigs may be strong, but the medium - term support logic may collapse; the price of eggs has limited upside and downside space; the prices of other agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand and cost [77][79]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued relevant policies to support the development of artificial intelligence and manufacturing. There was a large sell - order in the closing call auction of CITIC Securities, and the number of job vacancies in the US in November dropped to the lowest level in more than a year [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a medium - to - long - term strategy of going long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased. The central bank will conduct a 1.1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation, and the foreign exchange reserve increased at the end of December 2025. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 5002 billion yuan on Wednesday [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market may face pressure due to improved economic expectations, but the funds are expected to be stable. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver decreased. The US employment data was weaker than expected, but the increase in precious metal prices was limited. The market is concerned about the risk of a decline in silver prices [7]. - **Strategy**: Precious metals may face short - term corrections in January 2026, but this does not mean the end of the upward cycle. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of copper oscillated and adjusted. The LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic warehouse receipts increased. The spot was at a discount [10]. - **Strategy**: The short - term copper price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, supported by supply and policy expectations [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum declined after rising. The inventory increased slightly, and the spot was at a discount [12]. - **Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to remain at a high level, supported by low overseas inventory and supply disturbances [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of zinc increased slightly. The domestic and LME inventories and other data are provided [14][15]. - **Strategy**: The zinc price is expected to maintain wide - range oscillations in the medium term and be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The price of lead increased. The domestic social inventory increased, and other data are provided [17]. - **Strategy**: The high sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector may drive the lead price to break through the upper limit of the oscillation range [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel increased significantly. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron increased [18]. - **Strategy**: The short - term bottom of the nickel price may have appeared, but it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin increased. The supply was stable at a high level, and the demand was in the off - season. The inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy**: The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium increased. The inventory of lithium carbonate increased, and the new energy vehicle sales data is provided [21]. - **Strategy**: The price of carbonate lithium is rising, but there is a risk of correction. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or take a light position [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina increased. The spot was at a discount, and the inventory remained unchanged [22][23]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. If there is no actual production cut, short positions can be established at high prices [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel increased. The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased [25]. - **Strategy**: The price of stainless steel is rising, but the spot trading is inactive. It is recommended to operate with caution [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The inventory decreased slightly, and the trading volume was high [27]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to remain at a high level, supported by cost and supply disturbances [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil continued to decline [30]. - **Strategy**: The price of finished products increased driven by raw materials. The black series is in the bottom - range oscillation stage, and attention should be paid to policy changes [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore increased. The spot price and basis data are provided [32]. - **Strategy**: The iron ore price continued to rise. The supply decreased, the demand increased slightly, and the inventory increased. It is expected to oscillate, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The price of glass increased. The inventory decreased, and the number of long and short positions increased [34]. - **Strategy**: The glass price increased due to cost support and supply contraction expectations, but the demand is weak, and the upward space is limited [35]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The price of soda ash increased significantly. The inventory decreased, and the number of long positions decreased while the number of short positions increased [36]. - **Strategy**: The soda ash price rose strongly driven by market sentiment, but the fundamentals are still under pressure. It is recommended to operate with caution [37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon increased. The spot prices and basis data are provided [38]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is positive, but the supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, and the supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Pay attention to the influence of market sentiment and cost factors [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The inventory of the weighted contract increased, and the spot price remained unchanged [43]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is affected by market sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. It is expected to oscillate [44]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of the weighted contract decreased, and the spot price remained unchanged [45]. - **Strategy**: The demand for polysilicon is weak, and the inventory is under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price showed a weakening trend. The bullish and bearish views are different, and the tire production rate decreased slightly [49][50][51]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral strategy, trade short - term, or stay on the sidelines. Consider partial position - building for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The prices of INE crude oil and related refined oil products decreased. The gasoline and fuel oil inventories in the port decreased, while the diesel inventory increased [53]. - **Strategy**: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. Adopt a range - trading strategy and wait for the verification of OPEC's export - supporting willingness [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [55]. - **Strategy**: The valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of going long on dips [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed, and the main contract price increased [57]. - **Strategy**: The fundamental of urea is expected to be bearish. Take profit at high prices [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene increased. The basis and profit data are provided [59]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [60]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC increased. The cost, production rate, and inventory data are provided [61]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium term [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol increased. The production rate, inventory, and profit data are provided [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The valuation may be compressed in the medium term [65]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA remained unchanged. The production rate, inventory, and processing fee data are provided [66]. - **Strategy**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term inventory reduction. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices in the medium term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene decreased. The production rate, inventory, and valuation data are provided [68]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to maintain a slight inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices in the medium term [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE increased. The production rate, inventory, and basis data are provided [70][71]. - **Strategy**: The price of PE may be supported. Consider going long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [72]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP increased. The production rate, inventory, and basis data are provided [73]. - **Strategy**: The price of PP may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [74]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The price of live pigs continued to rise, but the increase narrowed. The downstream procurement enthusiasm decreased [76]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price of live pigs is strong, but the medium - term support logic may collapse. Consider shorting on the rebound [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The price of eggs mostly increased. The supply was normal, and the market digestion speed was stable [78]. - **Strategy**: The price of eggs has limited upside and downside space. Consider shorting on the rebound [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal futures increased. The export and inventory data of soybeans are provided [80][81]. - **Strategy**: The prices of protein meals increased with the overall rise of commodity prices. The import cost has a bottom, and the inventory is large [81]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures rebounded. The production and inventory data of palm oil are provided [82][83]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the price may be close to the bottom range. The long - term expectation is optimistic [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures was strong. The production and sales data of sugar are provided [84][85]. - **Strategy**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures increased. The export and inventory data of cotton are provided [87]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand of cotton is balanced, and it is recommended to go long on dips [88].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the liquidity data of various market sectors on January 6, 2026, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day, to reflect the market liquidity status of different sectors. [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report provides data on the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding amount, etc. of multiple market sectors, and uses multiple figures to visually present these data. [1][2][8] II. Stock Index Plate - On January 6, 2026, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 819.195 billion yuan, a +15.16% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1553.766 billion yuan, a +3.40% change; the trading - holding ratio was 53.15%. There are also figures showing the price change, trading - holding ratio, and other information of each variety in the stock index plate. [1][5] III. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 403.894 billion yuan, a +10.01% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 798.811 billion yuan, a +1.50% change; the trading - holding ratio was 49.46%. There are figures for each variety's price change, trading - holding ratio, etc. [1][5] IV. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - The base metals plate had a trading volume of 994.937 billion yuan, a +70.13% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 800.201 billion yuan, a +8.70% change; the trading - holding ratio was 129.44%. The precious metals plate had a trading volume of 1129.613 billion yuan, a +133.40% change; the holding amount was 512.831 billion yuan, a +5.74% change; the trading - holding ratio was 320.11%. There are figures for each variety's price change, trading - holding ratio, etc. [1][5] V. Energy and Chemical Plate - The trading volume of the energy and chemical plate was 479.474 billion yuan, a +30.85% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 444.680 billion yuan, a +3.90% change; the trading - holding ratio was 102.43%. There are figures for the main varieties' price change, trading - holding ratio, etc. [1][5] VI. Agricultural Products Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural products plate was 267.146 billion yuan, a - 0.58% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 568.582 billion yuan, a +2.69% change; the trading - holding ratio was 43.19%. There are figures for the main varieties' price change, trading - holding ratio, etc. [1][5] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 195.838 billion yuan, a +35.29% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 301.052 billion yuan, a +0.98% change; the trading - holding ratio was 64.32%. There are figures for each variety's price change, trading - holding ratio, etc. [2][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year due to some funds cashing in profits, the long - term view is to go long on dips as the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the short - term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances, and a quick - in - quick - out strategy is suitable [7]. - For precious metals, they are in an accelerating upward phase, but may face short - term corrections in January next year. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper and aluminum have relatively strong price support, while zinc and lead may be affected by the departure of long positions [11][13]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the iron ore price is expected to run within the oscillation range [31][34]. - For energy chemicals, the strategies for different products vary. For example, for crude oil, a low - buy - high - sell strategy is maintained with short - term waiting and seeing [52]. - For agricultural products, different products also have different price trends and trading strategies. For example, for live pigs, a strategy of short - term long and long - term short is recommended [75]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The State Administration for Market Regulation deployed key tasks for 2026, including anti - monopoly work; from January to November, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 3.1% year - on - year; tobacco advertising and business promotion expenses of tobacco enterprises cannot be deducted; the auction electricity price of the largest power grid operator in the United States may double [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the long - term view is to go long on dips as policy support remains unchanged [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. From January to November, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. The National Development and Reform Commission held a private enterprise symposium [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted a 4823 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on Monday, with a net investment of 4150 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and a quick - in - quick - out strategy is suitable [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices fell. Trump's remarks on the Fed and the selection of the new Fed chair have an impact on market expectations, and international silver prices hit a new high [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Precious metals may face short - term corrections in January next year, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: After the sharp adjustment of precious metals, copper prices rose and then fell sharply. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory increased [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of copper mines is tight, and the price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 95,500 - 99,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: After the sharp adjustment of precious metals, aluminum prices rose and then fell. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, and LME aluminum inventory decreased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,200 - 22,600 yuan/ton [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. LME zinc inventory and domestic social inventory decreased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry's fundamentals are weak, and the departure of long positions may impact prices [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index fell slightly. LME lead inventory increased, and domestic social inventory increased slightly [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand of lead is weak, and the departure of long positions may impact prices [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose and then fell. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron rose [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The excess pressure of nickel is still large, but the short - term bottom may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price fell. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate fell. The contract decreased its position significantly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see or try light - position call options. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 112,100 - 122,500 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell. The spot price was at a discount, and the futures inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2400 - 2900 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to policy implementation [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract rose. The inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the winter storage willingness is weak [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose. The spot price was at a premium, and the inventory increased [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price is expected to run within the oscillation range, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price rose. The inventory increased, and the trading volume decreased [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [35]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash main contract price rose. The inventory decreased, and the trading volume decreased [36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is limited [36]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rose slightly. The spot prices were at a premium [37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is affected by the black sector and cost factors. Attention should be paid to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [39]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased [40]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate with the market, and attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [41]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon futures main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under strong supervision, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to spot transactions [44]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly. The tire start - up rate was slightly worse, and the inventory increased [46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see and partially close the hedging position [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures price fell. The inventories of refined oil products had different changes [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A low - buy - high - sell strategy is maintained, and short - term waiting and seeing are recommended [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol fell, and the main futures contract price was stable [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol market is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea were stable, and the main futures contract price was stable [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea market is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner, and it is recommended to go long on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene spot and futures prices were stable, and the styrene spot price rose while the futures price fell [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract price fell. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium - term [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory decreased [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage after short - term de - stocking. Pay attention to the callback risk in the short - term and the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [66]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the callback risk in the short - term and the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [68]. Polyethylene PE - **Market Information**: The PE futures price fell, and the spot price rose. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [70]. Polypropylene PP - **Market Information**: The PP futures price fell, and the spot price was stable. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly rose. The supply and demand were in a complex state [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price may be strong in the short - term, and it is recommended to short after the near - month rebound [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was mainly stable. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term and pay attention to the long - term pressure [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price fell. The domestic soybean and meal inventories were large, and the demand was weak [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The Malaysian palm oil production and export data changed. The domestic palm oil inventory was high, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe high - frequency data and conduct short - term operations [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The domestic and international sugar production and import data changed [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February next year, and the domestic sugar price may continue to rebound in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell. The domestic cotton production increased, and the import was restricted [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [89].

1. Report's Core View - On December 25, 2025, different sectors in the market showed various liquidity performances. The stock index, basic metal, precious metal, and agricultural product sectors had increased trading volumes compared with the previous trading days, while the treasury bond, energy - chemical, and black building material sectors had decreased trading volumes [1][2]. 2. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Stock Index Plate - Trading volume was 560.484 billion yuan, a +10.45% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 1376.631 billion yuan, with a +4.67% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 40.59% [1]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Plate - Trading volume was 294.915 billion yuan, a -34.30% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 818.284 billion yuan, with a +1.10% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 35.57% [1]. 2.3 Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal) Plate - Trading volume was 820.815 billion yuan, a +34.56% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 727.873 billion yuan, with a +1.41% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 116.61% [1]. 2.4 Energy - Chemical Plate - Trading volume was 445.584 billion yuan, a -11.40% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 446.265 billion yuan, with a +0.10% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 91.56% [1]. 2.5 Agricultural Product Plate - Trading volume was 237.094 billion yuan, a +2.38% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 557.817 billion yuan, with a -2.23% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 40.83% [1]. 2.6 Black Building Material Plate - Trading volume was 154.490 billion yuan, a -25.74% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 311.853 billion yuan, with a -1.85% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 46.74% [2].