流动性日报 | 2025-11-21 市场流动性概况 2025-11-20，股指板块成交7277.94亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.76%；持仓金额13395.53亿元，较上一交易日变动 +0.73%；成交持仓比为53.89%。 国债板块成交5752.31亿元，较上一交易日变动+25.53%；持仓金额8382.21亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.09%；成交 持仓比为67.68%。 基本金属板块成交5640.88亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.94%；持仓金额6061.92亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.64%；成 交持仓比为113.62%。 贵金属板块成交9770.91亿元，较上一交易日变动+21.73%；持仓金额4473.43亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.71%；成 交持仓比为290.76%。 能源化工板块成交5294.15亿元，较上一交易日变动+11.44%；持仓金额4563.58亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.98%； 成交持仓比为108.10%。 农产品板块成交3093.72亿元，较上一交易日变动-11.18%；持仓金额5996.57亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.17%；成 交持仓比为44.96%。 黑色建材板块成交26 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market's technology - growth sector remains the main line, and in the long - term, there is a policy - supported attitude towards the capital market, suggesting a mid - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover, with its supply - demand pattern potentially improving in the fourth quarter, but influenced by factors such as the stock - bond seesaw and increasing allocation forces [7]. - For precious metals, the U.S. labor market shows a trend of weakening, and it is recommended to buy silver on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals [12][14][16]. - The steel market is in the off - season, with prices likely to oscillate weakly in the short term but may have a marginal inflection point with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [29]. - The energy - chemical sector presents various trends, such as rubber having both bullish and bearish factors, and different chemical products having different supply - demand and price trends [44][50]. - The agricultural products market has different outlooks for different products, like pigs having a bearish long - term outlook but potential short - term rebounds, and eggs expected to oscillate in the short term [69][71]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: News includes potential Chinese counter - measures against Japan, AI development plans in Guangdong, Google's Gemini 3 leading in the large - model competition, and warnings about the venture - capital sector [2]. - **Strategy**: After a previous rise, hot sectors rotate rapidly. Technology - growth is the main line, and a mid - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts have different price changes. The 11 - month LPR remains stable, and the central bank conducts 3000 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 1100 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The fourth - quarter bond market's supply - demand pattern may improve, and it is expected to oscillate and recover, influenced by factors such as the stock - bond seesaw [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices decline. U.S. employment data is mixed, with some sectors showing weakness [8]. - **Strategy**: The U.S. labor market is trending weakly. It is recommended to buy silver on dips, with reference price ranges provided for Shanghai gold and silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices oscillate and decline. LME copper inventory increases, and domestic social inventory shows slight changes [11]. - **Strategy**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates remains low, but copper prices have strong support due to tight supply and reduced inventory - accumulation pressure [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rise and then fall. Domestic and overseas aluminum inventories show different trends [13]. - **Strategy**: With a marginal decrease in domestic aluminum ingot inventory and low overseas inventory, aluminum prices have strong support and may strengthen after oscillation [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices decline. Zinc ore inventory slightly increases, and LME zinc ingot inventory shows certain changes [15]. - **Strategy**: Zinc ore is in short supply during the winter stockpiling period. Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices decline. Lead ore inventory slightly increases, and domestic social inventory shows marginal accumulation [17]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai lead market turning from long to short [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rise and then fall. Nickel ore prices are stable, and nickel - iron prices continue to decline [18]. - **Strategy**: The short - term downward space of nickel prices is limited, but there is a risk of negative feedback. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices decline. Supply is affected by raw - material shortages, and demand in emerging fields provides support [19]. - **Strategy**: Tin supply and demand are in a tight - balance state, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Buying on dips is recommended [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices show different trends. Production increases, and inventory decreases [21]. - **Strategy**: The industry has strong demand, but price increases may trigger potential disturbances. Attention should be paid to relevant factors, and a reference price range is provided [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices decline. Overseas ore prices are expected to oscillate downward, and domestic inventory shows accumulation [22]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with a reference price range provided and attention to relevant policies [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless - steel prices decline. Supply is excessive, and demand is weak [25]. - **Strategy**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to continue to decline due to over - supply, weak demand, and insufficient cost support [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum - alloy prices decline. Inventory shows different trends [26]. - **Strategy**: Casting aluminum - alloy prices are expected to oscillate in the short term due to strong cost support and general demand [26]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices decline. Threaded steel and hot - rolled coil show different supply - demand and inventory situations [28]. - **Strategy**: Steel demand is in the off - season, with short - term weak oscillation expected, but a marginal inflection point may occur later [29]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron - ore prices decline. The Ximangduo project starts production, and overseas shipments increase [30]. - **Strategy**: Iron - ore supply is strong, demand is stable, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [31]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices decline, and inventory increases. Soda - ash prices decline, and inventory decreases [32][34]. - **Strategy**: Glass industry fundamentals are weak, and soda - ash prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [34][35]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices decline. They are in an oscillation range [36]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to pay attention to the market - sentiment inflection point. Buying on dips may be more cost - effective [37]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial - silicon and polysilicon prices decline. Supply and demand show different trends [39][41]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, with attention to relevant factors [40][42]. Energy - Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillate and rebound. There are both bullish and bearish factors [44]. - **Strategy**: A bullish approach is recommended, with a stop - loss set, and a hedging strategy is suggested [46]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude - oil prices decline. U.S. inventory data shows different trends [47]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with a low - buying and high - selling strategy in the long term [48][49]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices decline. High - inventory pressure persists [50]. - **Strategy**: Methanol prices are expected to continue to decline, with high - inventory pressure suppressing prices [50]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices oscillate and rise. Supply and demand show certain changes [51]. - **Strategy**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out, and buying on dips is recommended [51]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure - benzene prices are stable, and styrene prices rise. Supply and demand show different trends [52]. - **Strategy**: Styrene prices may stop falling, and attention should be paid to the BZN spread [53]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices decline. Supply is high, and demand is weak [54]. - **Strategy**: PVC prices are expected to be weak, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [55]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene - glycol prices decline. Supply is high, and inventory accumulates [56]. - **Strategy**: Ethylene - glycol prices are expected to decline, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [57]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices decline. Supply and demand show different trends [58]. - **Strategy**: PTA prices are expected to oscillate, with attention to the PXN spread [59]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices decline. Supply and demand show different trends [60]. - **Strategy**: p - Xylene prices are expected to oscillate, with attention to the valuation increase opportunity [61]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rise slightly. Supply and demand show different trends [62]. - **Strategy**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, influenced by factors such as inventory and demand [63]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices decline. Supply and demand show different trends [64]. - **Strategy**: PP prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with potential support in the first quarter of next year [66]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices show different trends. Supply is normal, and demand is limited [68]. - **Strategy**: The long - term outlook is bearish, but there may be short - term rebounds. An anti - arbitrage strategy is recommended [69]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are stable or decline. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak [70]. - **Strategy**: Egg prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - selling on rallies is recommended in the medium term [71]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices decline. Global soybean supply is tightening, and domestic inventory is high [73]. - **Strategy**: Soybean - meal prices are expected to oscillate, with cost support and pressure on squeezing profits [74]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm - oil export data is weak, and domestic oil prices decline [75]. - **Strategy**: Palm - oil prices are expected to oscillate. A bullish approach can be considered if production declines [76]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices decline. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025/26 season [77]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies due to expected oversupply and high import profits [79]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillate. Domestic production is high, and demand is weak [80]. - **Strategy**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term due to weak demand and high selling - hedging pressure [82].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index market, recent Sino-US economic and trade talks have had a positive outcome. Technology remains the main market trend, and the policy supports the capital market. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [2][4]. - In the bond market, the central bank's restart of bond trading is positive for the bond market in the short term. In the fourth quarter, the bond market is affected by fundamentals, fund fee regulations, and institutional allocation. It is expected to oscillate and recover [7]. - In the precious metals market, the decline in precious metal prices is a "correction in the upward trend." It is recommended to maintain a long - term view and allocate long positions on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, most non - ferrous metals are expected to oscillate strongly due to factors such as supply disruptions and positive market sentiment [12][14][17][19]. - In the black building materials market, the long - term upward logic of steel prices remains intact, but the short - term demand is weak. For black building materials, it is recommended to look for opportunities to rebound on dips [35][46]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be temporarily observed, and oil is recommended to be low - bought and high - sold in a range [56][58]. - In the agricultural products market, different agricultural products have different trends. For example, the short - term pig price may rebound, but the medium - term is still under pressure [81]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The 14th Five - Year Plan proposes measures for key technology research, strategic investment plans in the US and Japan are announced, and some companies have good profit growth [2]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month. The technology sector is the main trend, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Treasury bond futures prices change, the 14th Five - Year Plan focuses on boosting consumption, the Fed's interest - rate meeting is held, and the central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The central bank's operation is positive for the bond market in the short term. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices fluctuate, the Fed's interest - rate meeting is approaching, and there are discussions about gold reserves in the Philippines and South Korea [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The decline in precious metal prices is a correction. It is recommended to allocate long positions on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices first decline and then rise, LME and domestic inventories change, and the downstream procurement sentiment improves slightly [11]. - **Strategy**: Due to the expected interest - rate cut and tight supply, copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rise, inventory and trading volume change, and the downstream procurement willingness is weak [13]. - **Strategy**: Supply disruptions and positive market sentiment are expected to drive aluminum prices to oscillate strongly [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices decline slightly, inventory and basis change [15][16]. - **Strategy**: Due to factors such as inventory accumulation and structural risks, zinc prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices decline, inventory and basis change [18]. - **Strategy**: Due to factors such as inventory reduction and positive market sentiment, lead prices are expected to run strongly in the short term [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices decline sharply, and the cost and supply - demand situation of nickel - related products change [20]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended. If the price drops enough, long positions can be considered [22]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices decline, inventory and supply - demand situation change [23]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short term. It is recommended to observe [23]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices change, and the futures price declines slightly [24]. - **Strategy**: After continuous rises, the price is under pressure. Pay attention to supply elasticity and hedging pressure [25]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices decline, inventory and basis change [26]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short term, paying attention to supply - side policies and the Fed's monetary policy [28]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices decline, inventory and raw material prices change [29]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe due to weak demand and falling raw material prices [30]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices decline, inventory and trading volume change [31]. - **Strategy**: Positive factors such as cost support and supply tightening are expected to support prices [32]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices change, and inventory and trading volume change [34]. - **Strategy**: The long - term upward logic of steel prices remains, but the short - term demand is weak. Pay attention to Sino - US talks [35]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rise, and inventory and basis change [36]. - **Strategy**: The demand for iron ore weakens, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate [37][38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass and soda ash prices change, and inventory and trading volume change [39][41]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to oscillate widely, and soda ash prices are expected to consolidate narrowly [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices change, and the market is in an oscillating range [42]. - **Strategy**: They are likely to follow the black market. Pay attention to potential supply constraints [44][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices change, and inventory and supply - demand situation change [47][49]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short term, and polysilicon's supply - demand pattern may improve [48][50]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillate, and there are different views on supply and demand [52][53]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to close short - term long positions and observe. Partial hedging positions can be established [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rise, and inventory changes [57]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short term and test OPEC's export - price support willingness [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices change, and inventory and basis change [59]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe due to factors such as slow import unloading and high inventory [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices change, and inventory and basis change [61]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe or consider long positions at low prices due to slow inventory accumulation and potential demand [63]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene and styrene prices decline, and inventory and basis change [64]. - **Strategy**: Benzene prices may stop falling due to factors such as cost and inventory [65]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices decline, and inventory and supply - demand situation change [66]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to over - supply and weak demand [68]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices decline, and inventory and supply - demand situation change [69]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation [70]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices change, and inventory and supply - demand situation change [71]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to potential production - cut signals and their impact on processing fees and prices [72]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices decline, and inventory and supply - demand situation change [73]. - **Strategy**: It mainly follows the oil price and is affected by PTA's production - cut expectations [74]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices decline, and inventory and demand change [75]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to maintain low - level oscillations due to factors such as high inventory and cost support [76]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices decline, and inventory and demand change [77]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the price is under pressure due to high inventory [78]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices rise, and there are differences in price trends in different regions [80]. - **Strategy**: Short - term rebound, medium - term short positions can be established on rallies [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mostly stable, and the market supply and demand are balanced [82]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe as the spot price has limited upward space [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices rise, and domestic soybean and meal inventories are high [84][85]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to high inventory and loose supply [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Oil prices decline, and palm oil production and export data change [87]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe and wait for clear production signals [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebound, and import control policies change [89][90]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens due to factors such as supply and import profit [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillate, and the downstream demand is weak [92]. - **Strategy**: The upward space of cotton prices is limited due to weak fundamentals [93].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the market faces uncertainties, but in the long - term, the policy - supported attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged. For the stock index, it is advisable to buy on dips; for the bond market, it may maintain a volatile trend, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect; for precious metals, maintain a long - term bullish view and wait to buy on dips; for various commodities, different strategies are recommended according to their fundamentals [4][6][8]. Summary by Categories Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Shenzhen supports mergers and acquisitions in strategic emerging industries; from October 1 - 19, national passenger car retail sales decreased by 6% year - on - year; the EU will discuss rare - earth export controls with China; Trump said a trade deal might be reached at APEC [2]. - **Strategy**: After a continuous rise, the market's risk appetite has decreased, and the short - term index is uncertain. In the long run, it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.02%, 0.00%, 0.02%, and - 0.01% respectively. Japan plans an economic stimulus package, and China's foreign - related payments in the first three quarters reached a record high. The central bank conducted a net injection of 947 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The short - term decline in risk appetite benefits the bond market. In the fourth quarter, pay attention to the fundamentals and institutional allocation. The bond market may improve in terms of supply - demand, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold fell 1.56%, and silver rose 0.04%. The macro - environment is favorable for precious metals, but the持仓 needs to be consolidated. Overseas risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the release of US CPI data is awaited [7]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - term bullish view. Wait for the price to stabilize and buy on dips. The reference range for Shanghai gold is 928 - 982 yuan/g, and for silver is 10962 - 11690 yuan/kg [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rebounded. LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic spot premium was general. The import loss was about 600 yuan/ton [10]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, but the mood has improved. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and prices may strengthen after short - term fluctuations [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices were strong. Domestic and overseas inventories decreased, and the downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [12]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade tensions have eased. The domestic inventory is low, and prices may rise further in the short term [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose slightly. Domestic and overseas inventories showed different trends, and the import was at a loss [14]. - **Strategy**: Domestic zinc ore inventory decreased, and overseas structural risks were high. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose slightly. The inventory decreased, and the downstream demand improved [16]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand of lead are favorable, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated at a low level. The cost was stable, and the demand for intermediate products increased [17]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. If the price drops significantly, consider buying on dips. In the long term, the price has support [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose slightly. The supply was tight, and the demand was mixed [18]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it may maintain a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot price decreased slightly, and the futures price increased [19]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals have improved, but pay attention to the supply recovery and hedging pressure. The reference range for the 2601 contract is 75,200 - 79,200 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose. The domestic and overseas prices and inventory had different changes [20]. - **Strategy**: The mine price has short - term support, but the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the AO2601 contract is 2600 - 3000 yuan/ton [21][22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: The market confidence has recovered. Pay attention to the downstream demand. If it continues, the market may continue to improve [23]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices rebounded. The inventory increased slightly [24]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiations may improve the mood, but the high - level warehouse receipt limits the upward space [25]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose. The inventory decreased slightly, and the demand recovered weakly [27]. - **Strategy**: The short - term demand is weak. Pay attention to the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US negotiations. In the long term, the trend remains unchanged [28]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose. The supply increased, and the demand decreased [29]. - **Strategy**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is under pressure. The price may oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the support at 760 - 765 yuan/ton [30]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and the inventory increased. Soda ash prices rose, and the inventory also increased [31][33]. - **Strategy**: Glass demand is weak, and the supply is increasing. Soda ash supply is strong, and demand is weak. Both may maintain a weak trend [32][34]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. The spot price was higher than the futures price [35]. - **Strategy**: They are likely to follow the black - sector market. Pay attention to potential driving factors in the manganese ore sector [36][38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell slightly, and polysilicon prices fell. The supply and demand of both have different characteristics [39][41]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon may fluctuate in the short term. Polysilicon is expected to have a phased correction. Pay attention to the supply - side changes [40][43]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose due to typhoons and stock - market benefits. There are different views on the rise and fall [45][46]. - **Strategy**: The price is stable in the short term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss and go long, and partially build a hedging position [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined - oil prices rose. The inventory of refined oil decreased [51]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed slightly. The import was delayed, and the demand was weak [53]. - **Strategy**: The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand was weak [55]. - **Strategy**: The price is at a low level, and the cost support is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see or consider going long on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices fell, and styrene prices rose. The supply and demand had different changes [57]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling. Pay attention to the cost and demand changes [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [59]. - **Strategy**: The supply is excessive, and the export expectation is poor. It is recommended to go short on rallies [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply increased, and the demand decreased slightly [61]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [62]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was stable [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to increase, and the processing fee is difficult to expand. It is recommended to wait and see [64]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices rose. The supply was high, and the demand was low [65]. - **Strategy**: The inventory is difficult to reduce. It mainly follows the crude - oil price. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand increased slightly [68]. - **Strategy**: The price may maintain a low - level oscillation. Pay attention to the cost and demand changes [69]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. The supply pressure is high, and the demand increased slightly [70]. - **Strategy**: The supply is excessive, and the inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [71]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices rose. The supply was under pressure, and the demand was recovering [73]. - **Strategy**: The short - term may be strong, but the medium - term supply pressure is large. Consider shorting on rallies [74]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight increases. The supply was normal, and the demand was average [75]. - **Strategy**: The spot may rebound slightly, but the upward space is limited. The futures may maintain a weak bottom - building trend. It is recommended to wait and see [76]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Soybean meal prices fell. The supply pressure was large, and the demand was weak [77]. - **Strategy**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to short on rallies [79]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm oil export increased, and production also increased. The prices of domestic oils and fats fell [80]. - **Strategy**: Palm oil supply may reverse. It is recommended to wait and see for a clearer signal [81]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices fell. Brazil's production is expected to increase, and the export has increased [82]. - **Strategy**: The overall supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [83]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillated slightly. The acquisition price increased slightly [84]. - **Strategy**: The demand is weak, and the supply is expected to increase. The upward space is limited in the short term [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, the short - term index faces uncertainties due to the rapid rotation of hot sectors and reduced risk appetite. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea is to go long on dips [3]. - For the bond market, in the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The market is likely to maintain a volatile trend under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. If the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases, the bond market is expected to recover [5]. - For precious metals, although there was a significant decline, gold and silver prices still have room to rise in the future but need some consolidation time. It is recommended to maintain a long - term long - position idea and go long on dips after the price stabilizes [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals' prices are affected by Sino - US trade relations and industrial supply - demand. Some metals are expected to be strong in the short - term, while others are expected to be weak [11][15][17]. - For black building materials, steel prices are affected by macro policies and fundamentals. Iron ore prices are under pressure due to weak terminal demand and macro disturbances. Glass and soda ash markets are weak due to supply - demand imbalances [34][36][38]. - For energy chemicals, rubber prices have risen significantly in the short - term, and short - term long - position with stop - loss is recommended. Crude oil prices are not recommended to be overly shorted in the short - term, and a wait - and - see approach is suggested. Other chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [53][55]. - For agricultural products, the supply of pigs and eggs exceeds demand, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. For soybeans and rapeseed meal, it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term. For oils and fats, a mid - term stable buying idea is recommended. For sugar, it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter. For cotton, the upward space is expected to be limited [77][79][82]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods are presented [2]. - **Strategy**: After a continuous rise, the short - term index is uncertain, but long - term policy support remains, suggesting long - term long - position on dips [3]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS contracts changed on Tuesday. There are diplomatic and political news, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net injection of 685 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference decline is beneficial for the bond market. In the fourth quarter, the bond market needs to focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The market is expected to be volatile, and it may recover if the stock market cools down [5]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures prices fell. COMEX gold and silver prices are reported, and relevant market indicators such as the US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are given [7]. - **Strategy**: Although there was a significant decline, gold and silver prices have room to rise in the future. It is recommended to maintain a long - term long - position and go long on dips after price stabilization [7][8]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices oscillated and declined. LME and domestic warehouse receipts and inventories changed, and the spot premium and import losses are reported [10]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiation uncertainty remains, but sentiment has improved marginally. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price may strengthen after short - term oscillation [11]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded. The positions, inventories, and spot premiums of domestic and foreign markets changed [12]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade tensions have eased marginally. The low domestic inventory and tight overseas supply, along with the strong copper price, support the aluminum price, which may rise in the short - term [13]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose slightly. The positions, inventories, and basis of domestic and foreign markets are reported [14]. - **Strategy**: The domestic zinc mine inventory decreased, and the total zinc ingot inventory increased. The LME zinc registered warehouse receipts are low, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [15]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose slightly. The positions, inventories, and basis of domestic and foreign markets are reported [16]. - **Strategy**: The lead ore port inventory increased, and the smelting and downstream demand conditions improved. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated at a low level. The spot market, cost, and demand of nickel are reported [18]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade friction may affect market sentiment, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider long - position on significant dips [20]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose slightly. The supply and demand situation of tin is reported [21]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade friction may affect market sentiment, but the short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate was stable. The import volume and futures price changed [23]. - **Strategy**: There is a shortage of supply in the peak season, and the inventory is decreasing. The price may continue to rise if consumption is strong. It is recommended to pay attention to warehouse receipts and supply [24]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose slightly. The positions, basis, and inventory are reported [25]. - **Strategy**: The ore price has short - term support, but the over - capacity in the smelting end is difficult to change. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply policies and monetary policies [27]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose slightly. The positions, spot prices, and inventory are reported [28]. - **Strategy**: The price increase of the 304 cold - rolled limit by the steel mill has boosted market confidence, but the demand is not strong enough to support continuous price increases. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [29]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices rebounded. The positions, inventory, and price differences are reported [30]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiations may improve sentiment, but the high warehouse receipts limit the upward space of the price [31]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose slightly. The positions, warehouse receipts, and spot prices are reported [33]. - **Strategy**: The commodity market was weak, and steel prices were volatile. The macro policies and fundamentals need to be focused on [34]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. The positions, spot prices, and basis are reported [35]. - **Strategy**: The iron ore supply increased, and the demand decreased due to weak steel mill profits. The price is expected to be weak and volatile, and support levels need to be watched [36]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass and soda ash prices fell. The inventory and positions increased [37][39]. - **Strategy**: The glass market is weak due to weak demand and high inventory. The soda ash market has a supply - demand imbalance with high inventory, and the price is expected to be weak [38][40]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose slightly. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [41]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade friction affects the market, but the current situation may be mostly priced in. The black market is not expected to be pessimistic, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [42]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell, and polysilicon prices rose. The positions, spot prices, and basis are reported [44][46]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon supply is under pressure, and the price is expected to be volatile. Polysilicon supply is expected to decrease at the end of the month, and the price is in a corrective phase in the oscillation range [45][47]. 3.4 Energy Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose due to typhoons and the stock market. The supply, demand, and inventory are reported [49]. - **Strategy**: Rubber prices rose significantly in the short - term. It is recommended to set stop - loss for short - term long - position and partially build positions for hedging [53]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and related product prices fell. The inventory of the Fujaiera port changed [54]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export support willingness [55]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed slightly. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [56]. - **Strategy**: The import unloading is delayed, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand is weak. The price is expected to be affected by winter gas restrictions, and it is recommended to wait and see [57]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed slightly. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [58]. - **Strategy**: The short - term production decreased due to equipment failures, and the demand is weak. The price is at a low level and is expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position on dips [59]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory are reported [60]. - **Strategy**: The spot and futures prices rose, and the basis weakened. The supply is abundant, and the demand is increasing. The port inventory is decreasing, and the price may stop falling [61]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices fell. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [62]. - **Strategy**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The export is expected to be poor. The price is at a low level, and it is recommended to consider short - position on rallies [63]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose slightly. The supply, demand, and inventory are reported [64]. - **Strategy**: The supply is high, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to consider short - position on rallies [65]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. The supply, demand, and inventory are reported [66]. - **Strategy**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The processing fee is difficult to expand. It is recommended to wait and see [68]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose. The supply, demand, and inventory are reported [69]. - **Strategy**: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA load is low. The inventory is difficult to reduce. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to terminal and PTA valuations [70]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose slightly. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [71]. - **Strategy**: The cost support is weakening, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to be volatile at a low level [72]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose slightly. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [73]. - **Strategy**: The cost supply is in an oversupply situation, and the inventory pressure is high. The price is expected to be affected by the cost and demand [74]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices rose. The supply and demand situation is reported [76]. - **Strategy**: The supply exceeds demand, and the second - fattening is difficult to succeed. It is recommended to sell on rallies [77]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices fell. The supply and demand situation is reported [78]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may rebound, but the space is limited. The disk is in a weak bottom - building phase, and it is recommended to wait and see [79]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Soybean and rapeseed meal prices changed. The supply, demand, and inventory are reported [80]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply pressure is high, and the global supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term [82]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export and production of palm oil and the export of Brazilian agricultural products are reported. Domestic oil prices fell [83]. - **Strategy**: The low inventory in India and Southeast Asia, the US biodiesel policy, and the reduced export of palm oil support the price. It is recommended to take a mid - term stable buying approach [84]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices oscillated slightly. The Brazilian export and price reduction of gasoline are reported [85]. - **Strategy**: The production in Brazil and the northern hemisphere is expected to increase. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [86][87]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rebounded. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [88]. - **Strategy**: The consumption demand is weak, and the new cotton production is expected to be high. The upward space of the price is limited [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - On October 16, 2025, the trading volumes of various market sectors decreased compared to the previous trading day, while the positions generally increased [1][2] Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report shows data on the trading volume, position amount, trading - position ratio, trading volume change rate, and position amount change rate of various market sectors [1][2] II. Stock Index Plate - On October 16, 2025, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 867.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.11% compared to the previous trading day; the position amount was 1338.077 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.62% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 64.63% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 326.154 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.87% compared to the previous trading day; the position amount was 813.641 billion yuan, an increase of 0.56% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 39.76% [1] IV. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - The basic metals plate had a trading volume of 355.143 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.70% compared to the previous trading day; the position amount was 526.166 billion yuan, an increase of 0.75% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 70.04% - The precious metals plate had a trading volume of 1173.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.18% compared to the previous trading day; the position amount was 532.15 billion yuan, an increase of 0.45% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 314.17% [1] V. Energy and Chemical Plate - The trading volume of the energy and chemical plate was 360.968 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.46% compared to the previous trading day; the position amount was 440.987 billion yuan, an increase of 0.15% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 69.58% [1] VI. Agricultural Products Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural products plate was 254.671 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.70% compared to the previous trading day; the position amount was 560.52 billion yuan, an increase of 2.45% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 41.85% [1] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 250.856 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.73% compared to the previous trading day; the position amount was 347.698 billion yuan, an increase of 2.73% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 67.58% [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After a previous continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. The market risk appetite has decreased, and short - term indices face uncertainties due to concerns about Sino - US tariffs. However, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the mid - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - Recent Sino - US trade disputes have led to a short - term decline in risk appetite, which is beneficial for the bond market's repair. But the progress of tariffs is highly uncertain in the later stage. In the fourth quarter, the bond market needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The overall bond market may maintain a volatile trend, and it may oscillate and repair if the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases [8]. - Precious metals have shown strong price performance due to dovish remarks from Fed officials and a tight silver spot situation. Although prices have fallen after a short - term rapid increase, it is still recommended to hold long positions [9][10]. - For various metals and non - metals, the Sino - US trade situation is uncertain, and each product's price trend is affected by its own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. Some products are expected to have limited downside space, while others may face downward pressure [13][15][27]. - In the energy and chemical sectors, different products have different price trends and trading strategies based on their supply - demand balances, inventory levels, and cost factors. Some products are recommended for short - term observation, while others may have opportunities for long - or short - term operations [52][54][55]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different supply - demand situations. Some products are expected to have price increases, while others are expected to decline, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed accordingly [74][75][84]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: In late September, M2 balance was 335.38 trillion yuan, up 8.4% year - on - year; M1 balance was 113.15 trillion yuan, up 7.2% year - on - year; M0 balance was 13.58 trillion yuan, up 11.5% year - on - year. By the end of 2027, 28 million charging facilities will be built nationwide. US nuclear power concept stocks rose strongly, and the rumor of a large robot order for Sanhua Intelligent Control was false [2]. - **Strategy View**: After a previous continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence. The market risk appetite has decreased, and short - term indices face uncertainties due to concerns about Sino - US tariffs. However, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the mid - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts had different changes. In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In late September, M2, M1, and M0 balances had year - on - year increases. The central bank conducted a 435 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on Wednesday, with a net investment of 435 billion yuan [5][6][7]. - **Strategy View**: Recent Sino - US trade disputes have led to a short - term decline in risk appetite, which is beneficial for the bond market's repair. But the progress of tariffs is highly uncertain in the later stage. In the fourth quarter, the bond market needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The overall bond market may maintain a volatile trend, and it may oscillate and repair if the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.39% to 962.08 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 3.97% to 12,138 yuan/kilogram. Fed officials' dovish remarks and a tight silver spot situation led to strong precious metal prices [9]. - **Strategy View**: Although precious metal prices have fallen after a short - term rapid increase, it is still recommended to hold long positions. The reference operating range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 921 - 980 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 11,368 - 13,000 yuan/kilogram [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight, Powell mentioned the possible end of balance - sheet reduction. The copper price first rose and then fell. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic spot premiums varied. The domestic copper spot import loss narrowed, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased [12]. - **Strategy View**: Trump's threat to impose high tariffs on China is uncertain. Fundamentally, the expected tightening of copper supply in the next two years and the decrease in domestic refined copper production support the price. The short - term decline in copper prices may be limited. The reference operating range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 84,400 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M copper contract is 10,450 - 10,750 US dollars/ton [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price oscillated and rebounded. The LME 3M aluminum contract rose slightly, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at a certain price. Domestic and overseas inventories decreased, and the downstream consumption sentiment improved [14]. - **Strategy View**: The Sino - US trade situation is uncertain. Domestically, with the increase in the proportion of aluminum water, seasonal consumption recovery, and resilient exports, the pressure on aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is small, and the downside space for aluminum prices is expected to be limited. The reference operating range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,740 - 21,050 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M aluminum contract is 2,720 - 2,770 US dollars/ton [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index fell. LME zinc prices also decreased. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the basis and spreads had different values [16]. - **Strategy View**: During the holiday, domestic zinc smelters continued production, and some downstream enterprises had long holidays. The LME registered zinc warrants are at a low level, and there is a structural risk. After the opening of the zinc ingot export window, short - covering in the domestic market provides short - term support for Shanghai zinc. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will oscillate at a low level in the short term, with increased risk and volatility [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose. LME lead prices also increased. The domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the basis and spreads had different values [18]. - **Strategy View**: The visible lead ore inventory increased slightly, and the production of primary lead smelters remained high. The waste lead inventory decreased, and the production of secondary lead smelters increased slightly but remained at a low level. The lead ingot factory inventory increased. The downstream storage enterprises had shorter holiday times than in previous years, and the industrial data improved marginally. On October 10, a large number of LME lead warehouse warrants were cancelled, increasing the structural risk of LME lead. It is expected that Shanghai lead will run strongly in the short term [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price oscillated. The spot market trading was average, and the price of nickel ore and nickel iron remained stable. The price of MHP remained high due to increased demand [20]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may drive down market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. The recent weakening of nickel iron prices and the significant inventory pressure on refined nickel may drag down nickel prices. However, in the long term, the US easing expectations, China's anti - involution policy, and the RKAB approval are expected to support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider going long on dips if the price drops significantly. The reference operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M nickel contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract rose. The domestic futures registered warehouse warrants increased, and the price of tin concentrate decreased. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar and Indonesia was tight, and the smelter's operating rate decreased. The demand in the new energy and AI sectors was strong, but the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors were weak. The demand in the peak season improved marginally, but high prices still inhibited consumption [21]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may drive down market risk appetite, but the short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance, and the demand in the peak season is recovering. Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 34,000 - 36,000 US dollars/ton [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, and the futures contract price increased slightly. The spot premium was flat [22]. - **Strategy View**: The warehouse warrants of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased this week, and the inventory continued to decline. The available spot for circulation is tight, and the premium is strengthening. If consumption remains strong and resonates with the macro - environment, the upside space for lithium prices may be opened. It is more likely to oscillate strongly in the short term. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 71,880 - 75,280 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell. The domestic and overseas spot prices decreased, and the import window was close to closing. The futures inventory increased, and the ore price remained stable [24]. - **Strategy View**: The ore price is supported in the short term but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The opening of the import window may intensify the over - supply situation. However, the increased expectation of Fed rate cuts may drive the non - ferrous metal sector to run strongly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for the resonance of macro - sentiment. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract fell slightly. The spot prices in different markets had different changes, and the raw material prices remained stable. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [26]. - **Strategy View**: After the holiday, the social inventory increased significantly, but the terminal consumption was weak, and the market did not show the characteristics of the traditional peak season. The prices of Tsingshan products led the decline, and the market trading was light. It is expected that the market trend will be weak [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The AD2511 contract rose. The trading volume decreased, and the warehouse warrants decreased. The price difference between the AL2511 and AD2511 contracts increased. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price remained unchanged, and the import price increased. The domestic inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy View**: The market sentiment is volatile, and the delivery pressure on the near - month contracts of cast aluminum alloy is still high, and the upside space for prices is relatively limited [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot decreased. The registered warehouse warrants and open interest increased [30]. - **Strategy View**: The overall commodity market atmosphere was weak yesterday, and steel prices continued to decline. Trump's tariff remarks disturbed the market, but the direct impact on steel is limited. Fundamentally, the demand for steel during the National Day holiday was significantly weaker than last year, and the inventory continued to accumulate. In the short term, the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to reverse, and attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract fell. The spot price and basis had certain values [32]. - **Strategy View**: In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased seasonally, and the near - term arrival volume increased. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output remained stable, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline. The inventory accumulation level of steel during the holiday was high, and the post - holiday de - stocking situation is under test. Fundamentally, if the situation of finished steel weakens after the holiday, the iron ore price may adjust accordingly. The terminal demand is weak, and the macro - disturbance continues. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate weakly [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract fell. The spot prices in different regions had different changes, and the inventory increased. The open interest of long and short positions increased. The soda ash main contract fell slightly. The spot price decreased, and the inventory increased. The open interest of long and short positions also increased [34][36]. - **Strategy View**: For glass, some production lines are planned to resume production, and the cost has decreased. The terminal demand is weaker than expected, and the supply pressure is increasing. The market sentiment is cautious and bearish. For soda ash, the supply is stable, but the price has decreased. The demand is weak, and the market trading is light. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [35][36]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon main contract rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon main contract also rose. The spot prices were higher than the futures prices. The manganese silicon price is in an oscillation range and is currently close to the lower limit. The ferrosilicon price has broken through the support level and is weak [37]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by short - term demand pressure, the black sector has experienced a downward correction. The high pig iron output still exerts pressure on prices. The price may first decline to release the bearish sentiment and then rise with the expectation of the Fourth Plenary Session. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities on dips. For manganese silicon, if the black sector strengthens, pay attention to the disturbance from the manganese ore end. For ferrosilicon, it is likely to follow the black sector's trend [38][39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures main contract rose. The spot prices remained stable, and the basis was positive. The polysilicon futures main contract rose. The spot prices remained unchanged, and the basis was positive [42][44]. - **Strategy View**: For industrial silicon, the short - term price oscillates. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation is stable in the short term. In the future, the supply pressure will decrease, and the far - month contract valuation is expected to increase. There is still room for price repair. For polysilicon, the market may enter a fundamental correction stage. The short - term price is constrained by high inventory and weak demand. The supply - demand pattern may improve after November. The current price fluctuation is regarded as a technical correction [43][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated and showed signs of stabilization. The long and short sides had different views. The tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday, and the export of semi - steel tires slowed down. The domestic natural rubber inventory decreased. The spot prices of some rubber products increased [47][48][49][50][51]. - **Strategy View**: The macro - disturbance may temporarily decrease, and the rubber price may stabilize in the short term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss and go long on dips with a short - term and quick - in - quick - out strategy. It is also recommended to partially build a hedging position by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures and related refined oil futures fell. The Singapore ESG oil product inventory data showed different changes in gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil inventories [53]. - **Strategy View**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly, so the oil price should not be overly bearish in the short term. It is recommended to maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently, it is recommended to wait and see and wait for the verification of OPEC's export price - support intention when the oil price falls [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol spot and futures prices had different changes, and the basis turned positive. The 1 - 5 spread increased [55]. - **Strategy View**: The import disturbance has weakened, and methanol is expected to return to its own fundamental pricing. The domestic supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is large, and the fundamental situation is weak. However, the downside space is relatively limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the previous continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. Sectors like energy storage, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the medium and long term, the main idea is to go long on dips [2][3]. - For the bond market in the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The market is in a situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, and is expected to maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. - For most non - ferrous metals, factors such as supply tightening, macro - policy easing, and relatively stable demand support price increases, but different metals have different specific driving factors and price trends [8][9][10][11]. - For black building materials, the current steel demand is weak, but with the macro - environment turning loose, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust downward if the downstream situation weakens. For other varieties in the black building materials sector, different trends and influencing factors exist [31][33]. - For energy chemicals, different varieties have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some varieties are expected to maintain a volatile trend, while others have opportunities for short - term long positions or risks of decline [50][52][54]. - For agricultural products, the supply - demand relationship of different varieties is unbalanced. Some are in a situation of oversupply and prices are under pressure, while others are expected to be strong due to factors such as policy support and supply - demand expectations [73][74][79][80]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year" capital market plan for listed companies and industry institutions. During the holiday, non - ferrous metal futures such as precious metals, copper, and aluminum closed higher. Global storage chip prices are rising, and the storage chip industry is expected to enter a "super cycle". China's nuclear fusion device BEST has made a key breakthrough [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous rise, high - level hot sectors have diverged, and the market volume has shrunk. Short - term index fluctuations have increased, but the medium - and long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On September 30, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. The cross - regional personnel flow during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays reached 2.36 billion person - times. The US September non - farm payrolls data was postponed due to the government "shutdown". The central bank conducted 2422 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 339 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In September, the manufacturing PMI showed a slight recovery but was still below the boom - bust line. The "anti - involution" policy led to a rise in the price level, but the subsequent social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and there are still expectations of monetary easing and the central bank restarting bond purchases. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the fourth quarter [5]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: COMEX gold and silver prices fell. During the National Day, overseas risk events impacted the US dollar credit, and gold prices rose. The Fed officials had differences in the follow - up interest rate path, and the market expected further interest rate cuts [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term long - position thinking for precious metals. There is a short - term risk of price correction, and price dips are good opportunities to enter long positions [6]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: During the National Day holiday, overseas non - ferrous metal prices were generally strong. LME copper prices rose, and overseas exchange copper inventories changed differently. Chile's August copper production decreased, and domestic September electrolytic copper production also decreased [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and macro - policy easing support copper prices, and demand is not significantly weak. Copper prices are expected to remain strong [9]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: During the National Day holiday, the aluminum price rose. LME aluminum inventories decreased, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production and operating capacity were relatively stable, with the proportion of molten aluminum increasing [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Macro - sentiment supports the aluminum price. With the increase in the domestic molten aluminum proportion and the seasonal recovery of consumption, the aluminum price is expected to rise [11]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the Shanghai zinc index fell slightly. During the holiday, the LME zinc price rose, and the inventory decreased. The structural risk of LME zinc strengthened [12][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: During the holiday, domestic zinc smelting and downstream enterprises maintained normal production. The non - ferrous metal sector was strong, and the Shanghai zinc price is expected to be strong after the holiday [14]. Lead - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the Shanghai lead index rose slightly. During the holiday, the LME lead price rose slightly, and the inventory increased. The lead price structure was under pressure [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: During the holiday, domestic lead smelting enterprises maintained normal production, and downstream battery enterprises had a shorter holiday. The lead price is expected to be weak and volatile after the holiday [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: During the National Day, the nickel price fluctuated. The spot market had little trading activity during the holiday. Before the holiday, the nickel price fluctuated in a narrow range, and downstream enterprises had low enthusiasm for stocking [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The refined nickel inventory pressure is significant, which drags down the nickel price. In the medium - and long - term, factors such as US easing expectations and domestic anti - involution policies support the nickel price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider going long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: During the National Day, the LME tin price was strong. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand in the new energy and AI fields was good, but the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance fields were still weak [19][20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance. The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: On September 30, the carbonate lithium spot index and futures prices fell [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the double festivals, the strong demand in the lithium - battery downstream supports the price, while the supply replenishment expectation suppresses the upside space. Pay attention to the supply continuity of the resource end and the realization of strong demand expectations [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On September 30, the alumina index fell. The domestic spot price fell, and the overseas price was stable. The import window was opened [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the stainless steel futures price fell slightly. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased [25][26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Before the holiday, the stainless steel market was in a tug - of - war between cost support and weak demand. If the supply pressure increases after the holiday, the price may continue to decline [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Before the National Day, the cast aluminum alloy futures price was weak. During the holiday, the cost of raw aluminum rose. The price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 contracts widened, and the inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream peak season of cast aluminum alloy is not strong, the inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is under pressure. The support comes from the rise in the cost of raw materials [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell. The spot price also decreased, and the inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: During the National Day holiday, steel demand was weak, and inventory accumulated. Although the macro - environment is turning loose, the short - term weak reality is difficult to reverse. The steel price may decline, and attention should be paid to policy signals and the Fourth Plenary Session [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: On September 30, the iron ore futures price fell slightly. During the holiday, the TSI iron ore price rose. Two news events affected the Singapore iron ore market, but the price returned to stability [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: During the holiday, steel mills maintained production, and overseas ore shipments were stable. The short - term iron ore price may adjust downward if the downstream situation weakens. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the glass futures price fell, and the spot price in some regions rose. The inventory decreased. The soda ash futures price fell, and the spot price decreased. The inventory decreased [34][35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is in a wide - range volatile pattern, with weak terminal demand. It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term. The soda ash market is stable with narrow fluctuations, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [34][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On September 30, the manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices fell. The spot price also decreased. The prices of both are in the shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may experience a short - term downward correction, but in the long - term, it may have the value of long - position allocation. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the trend of the black sector [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: On September 30, the industrial silicon futures price rose slightly, and the spot price was stable. The polysilicon futures price rose slightly, and the spot price was stable [41][43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon supply - demand is stable in the short - term, and it is expected to be volatile. The polysilicon price may have a short - term decline risk, and attention should be paid to policy changes [42][44]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: During the holiday, the prices of Japanese rubber and Singapore rubber rose slightly. The Thai spot prices were mixed. The开工 rate of domestic tire enterprises was different, and the inventory decreased [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a medium - term long - position thinking. In the short - term, it is recommended to set a stop - loss, enter short - term long positions quickly, and consider partial hedging operations [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: During the National Day, the international crude oil market fluctuated. The WTI and Brent crude oil prices were at a certain level. The US API data showed that the Cushing inventory decreased. The OPEC meeting decided on a "principle - based low - speed production increase" [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC's production increase plan will suppress the upside space of oil prices. Crude oil is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: During the holiday, overseas crude oil prices fluctuated. Before the holiday, the methanol spot and futures prices changed. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased [53][54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol supply - demand situation has improved, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - term long - position opportunities on dips [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: During the holiday, the urea spot price in some regions decreased. Before the holiday, the futures price rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [55][56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea price is at a low level. It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene spot and futures prices fell. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the approaching seasonal peak season. The BZN spread has room for upward repair [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price fell. The spot price decreased, and the cost was stable. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [59][60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC supply - demand situation is poor. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol futures price fell. The spot price decreased. The supply increased, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol supply is high. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price fell. The spot price decreased. The supply and demand both increased, and the inventory increased [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA supply - demand situation is complex. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [65]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene futures price fell. The CFR price rose. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene is expected to accumulate inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price rose. The spot price was stable. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may fluctuate upward. The cost has support, and the demand is expected to increase [69]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP futures price rose. The spot price was stable. The supply was under pressure, and the demand increased. The inventory was under pressure [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is under pressure [71]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: During the holiday, the domestic pig price fell, the supply increased, and the demand was weak [73]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The pig price is expected to be weak in the short - term. It is recommended to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse hedging. Attention should be paid to post - holiday fluctuations [74]. Eggs - **Market Information**: During the holiday, the domestic egg price fell, the supply was large, and the demand was weak [75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The price may be weak after the holiday, but there may be support from potential inventory transfer. It is recommended to wait and see [76]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: During the National Day holiday, the CBOT soybean price rose. The domestic soybean meal spot price changed slightly. The Brazilian soybean sowing progress was faster than before [77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. The price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term [78]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel policy. The Malaysian palm oil inventory may decrease. The Malaysian palm oil price rose during the holiday [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil and fat prices are expected to be strong in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes [80]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. During the holiday, the raw sugar price changed little. The Brazilian sugar production data was released [81][82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to decline in the large - scale. It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [83]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell. During the holiday, the US cotton price fell. The domestic cotton purchase price was lower than last year, and the demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" was weak [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Zhengzhou cotton price is likely to be weak after the National Day. The cost support is around 12860 - 13130 yuan/ton [85].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors like AI have seen divergences, with funds switching between high - and low - level stocks and rapid rotation, reducing market risk appetite. Short - term index faces uncertainty due to shrinking trading volume, but in the long - run, with policy support for the capital market unchanged, the strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in Q4, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The market may oscillate under the intertwined situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect, and if the stock market cools and allocation forces increase, the bond market may recover [7]. - For precious metals, short - term interest rate cut expectations are frustrated, but the Fed's mid - term easing pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on dips, especially paying attention to the rising opportunity of silver prices [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are expected to have a certain degree of support in price, with some showing a trend of shock - strengthening or shock - running, mainly affected by factors such as Fed interest rate policies, trade situations, and industry supply - demand [12][14][16]. - For black building materials, steel prices are under downward pressure due to weak demand, and the iron ore price may adjust downward if the downstream situation weakens after the festival. Glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate, and manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [31][33][39]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is weak in the short - term but bullish in the medium - term; crude oil has short - term uncertainties; and methanol's fundamentals are improving [52][54][56]. - For agricultural products, the supply - demand situation varies. For example, the pig price is weak, the egg price may stabilize after a small decline. Bean and rapeseed meal are under short - term pressure, and the price of edible oils may strengthen in the medium - term [74][76][81]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **行情资讯**: The central bank aims to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. The NDRC plans to build a new computing power network infrastructure. Eight - department issued a plan for the non - ferrous metal industry. The SASAC held a symposium on the economic operation of state - owned enterprises. The new energy storage market is short of cores [2]. - **期指基差比例**: IF, IC, and IM show different negative basis ratios for different contract periods, while IH has positive basis ratios in some cases [3]. - **策略观点**: Short - term uncertainty exists, but long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **行情资讯**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. In August, industrial enterprise profits increased year - on - year. Eight - department issued a plan for the non - ferrous metal industry [5]. - **流动性**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations on Friday, with a net injection of 4115 billion yuan [6]. - **策略观点**: The bond market may oscillate in Q4, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond relationship [7]. Precious Metals - **行情资讯**: Domestic and foreign precious metals had different price changes, and the positions of precious metal futures and ETFs increased significantly [8]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to go long on dips, especially for silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **行情资讯**: Copper prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis. Import losses and refined - waste spreads also had corresponding changes [11]. - **策略观点**: Short - term copper prices may continue to oscillate strongly [12]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: Aluminum prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [13]. - **策略观点**: Aluminum prices have strong support below [14]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: Zinc prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [15]. - **策略观点**: Short - term zinc prices may be weak [16]. Lead - **行情资讯**: Lead prices increased slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **策略观点**: Short - term lead prices may be strong [17]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: Nickel prices oscillated, with changes in spot prices and costs [18]. - **策略观点**: Short - term observation is recommended, and long on dips can be considered if prices fall enough [18]. Tin - **行情资讯**: Tin prices oscillated, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [19]. - **策略观点**: Tin prices may continue to oscillate, and observation is recommended [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **行情资讯**: Carbonate lithium prices had different changes, and the price of lithium concentrate was stable [21]. - **策略观点**: Carbonate lithium futures may oscillate within a range [22]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: Alumina prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [23]. - **策略观点**: Observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to relevant policies [24]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: Stainless steel prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [25]. - **策略观点**: Stainless steel prices may oscillate in the short - term [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **策略观点**: Futures may be weaker than spot, with support from scrap aluminum prices [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **行情资讯**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [30]. - **策略观点**: Steel prices may be weak and volatile, and attention should be paid to the policies of the Fourth Plenary Session [31]. Iron Ore - **行情资讯**: Iron ore prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **策略观点**: Short - term iron ore prices may be strong, but may adjust downward after the festival if downstream demand weakens [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **行情资讯**: Glass and soda ash prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [34][36]. - **策略观点**: Glass can be considered slightly bullish in the short - term, and soda ash is expected to oscillate [35][37]. Manganese - Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **行情资讯**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [38]. - **策略观点**: They are likely to follow the black sector's trend, and manganese - silicon may have potential driving factors [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **行情资讯**: Industrial silicon prices declined, and polysilicon prices had a small increase, with changes in inventory and basis [41][44]. - **策略观点**: Industrial silicon may oscillate in the short - term, and polysilicon prices may decline in the short - term [43][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **行情资讯**: Rubber prices were weak, with factors such as expected state reserve sales and weather affecting the market [47]. - **策略观点**: Mid - term bullish, short - term weak, and observation is recommended after the festival [52]. Crude Oil - **行情资讯**: Crude oil and related product prices increased, with changes in inventory [53]. - **策略观点**: Short - term uncertainties exist, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and observe [54]. Methanol - **行情资讯**: Methanol prices had small changes, with changes in basis [55]. - **策略观点**: The fundamentals are improving, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [56]. Urea - **行情资讯**: Urea prices declined slightly, with changes in basis [57]. - **策略观点**: Low - valuation and weak - driving, long positions can be considered on dips [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **行情资讯**: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [58]. - **策略观点**: Styrene prices may stop falling, and observation is recommended [59]. PVC - **行情资讯**: PVC prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [60]. - **策略观点**: The supply - demand situation is poor, and short - term long positions on dips can be considered [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情资讯**: Ethylene glycol prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [62]. - **策略观点**: In the short - term, inventory may be low, but it will accumulate in the fourth quarter, and short - term long positions on dips can be considered [63]. PTA - **行情资讯**: PTA prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [64]. - **策略观点**: The supply - demand situation is complex, and observation is recommended [65]. Para - Xylene - **行情资讯**: PX prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [66]. - **策略观点**: PX may accumulate inventory, and observation is recommended [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **行情资讯**: PE prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [68]. - **策略观点**: PE prices may oscillate upward [69]. Polypropylene (PP) - **行情资讯**: PP prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [70]. - **策略观点**: PP is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high [71]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **行情资讯**: The pig price fluctuated slightly, with most areas seeing a decline [73]. - **策略观点**: The pig price may be weak, and short - term short positions on near - month contracts and reverse spreads are recommended [74]. Eggs - **行情资讯**: The egg price was stable with a small decline in some areas [75]. - **策略观点**: The egg price may stabilize after a small decline, and short - term observation is recommended [76]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - **行情资讯**: The price of US soybeans oscillated, and the domestic bean meal price was stable. The supply - demand situation was complex [77]. - **策略观点**: Short - term pressure exists, and in the medium - term, the market is expected to oscillate [78]. Edible Oils - **行情资讯**: The price of edible oils rebounded, and the supply - demand situation in Malaysia and Indonesia had different changes [79][80]. - **策略观点**: The price of edible oils may strengthen in the medium - term, and long positions can be considered on dips [81]. Sugar - **行情资讯**: The sugar price declined slightly, and the supply - demand situation in major producing areas is expected to change [82]. - **策略观点**: The sugar price is expected to decline in the long - term, and observation is recommended before the festival [83]. Cotton - **行情资讯**: The cotton price declined, and the supply - demand situation was complex [84][85]. - **策略观点**: The cotton price is affected by multiple factors, and short - term observation is recommended [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - The overall market shows a complex situation with various factors influencing different sectors. The Fed's interest rate cuts, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics in different industries all play important roles in determining the market trends. For example, in the stock index futures market, the A - share market shows a trend of rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon after overseas interest rate cuts; in the bond market, the situation is still intertwined with multiple factors; and in the commodity market, different commodities have different supply - demand and price trends [2][6][17]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, the major A - share indexes rose in the morning and fell in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.15%, and most sectors and stocks declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also fell, and the 09 contracts are about to expire with the basis close to neutral [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, the Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as TikTok. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and inflation is still relatively high [3]. - **Funding**: On September 18, the A - share trading volume increased significantly, and the central bank conducted a net injection of 1950 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the Fed's interest rate cut and the approaching holiday, it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [4]. Treasury Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted a net injection of 1950 billion yuan, but the tightness of the inter - bank market funds did not change significantly. The influence of the tax period has not completely subsided, and the central bank's hedging efforts at the end of the quarter need to be concerned [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market is still intertwined with multiple factors. It is recommended to operate within the range, and be cautious about chasing up in the short term [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Trump proposed to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and the US Supreme Court temporarily froze a relevant ruling. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate unchanged, slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening, and limited long - term bond sales [7]. - **Market Performance**: The market digested the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut, the risk appetite increased, the US stocks strengthened, and gold continued to decline slightly. The international silver price rebounded and rose [9]. - **Outlook**: The Fed's policy path has dual characteristics, which may suppress the US dollar index. Gold may enter a high - level shock consolidation, and it is recommended to buy at low prices below 3600 US dollars. Silver is expected to be boosted by various factors, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options at high prices [9][11]. - **Funding**: The positions of gold and silver ETFs remain high, but some institutions have taken profits [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of September 18, the freight quotes for Shanghai - European basic ports in the next 6 weeks are provided by different shipping companies [12]. - **Index**: As of September 15, the SCFIS European Line Index fell by 8.06%, and the US West Line Index rose by 37.67%. As of September 12, the SCFI Composite Index fell by 3.21% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased by 7.5% year - on - year. The eurozone's August composite PMI was 51, and the US August manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [12]. - **Logic**: The futures market was weakly volatile, and the spot inflection point is expected to appear in mid - to - late October. It is possible to pay attention to the upward opportunities of the 12 and 02 contracts in November [13]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The market is bearish, and it is possible to consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage [13]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of September 19, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the downstream procurement volume increased with improved spot trading [13]. - **Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and the previous loose trading may end. Attention should be paid to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading [14]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. The domestic electrolytic copper production in August decreased slightly month - on - month and increased year - on - year. It is expected to decrease in September due to factors such as maintenance and supply shortage [14]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod production increased after the copper price callback, but the downstream terminal demand for copper prices above 80,000 yuan is weak [15]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventories decreased, while domestic social inventories and COMEX copper inventories increased [16]. - **Logic**: After the FOMC meeting, the copper price oscillated. The previous loose trading may end, and the market may switch to recovery trading. The supply - demand situation is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides support, and in the short - term, the copper price may be strongly oscillated [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [17]. Alumina - **Spot**: On September 18, the spot prices of alumina in different regions decreased, and the supply pattern was gradually relaxed with a downward trend in prices [18]. - **Supply**: In August, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased, and the operating capacity is expected to continue to increase slightly in September. However, some enterprises were affected by factors such as production restrictions and maintenance [19]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, the port inventory decreased, and the registered quantity of warehouse receipts increased [19]. - **Logic**: The alumina futures price oscillated at the bottom. The market is in a situation of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The supply in Guinea has more disturbing factors, which provides short - term support, but the overall supply is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [20]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 2900 - 3200 yuan, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 yuan [20]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On September 18, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the trading activity increased with a rising trend in the premium [21]. - **Supply**: In August, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the proportion of aluminum water increased, reflecting the consumption resilience [22]. - **Demand**: The downstream is in the transition stage between the off - season and the peak season, and the operating rates of some industries have recovered [22]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, the domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory increased [23]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest rate cut and the strengthening of the US dollar index put pressure on the aluminum price. The domestic economic recovery provides support for aluminum demand, but the upward push of macro - factors has weakened. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains high, and the demand improvement needs to be further observed. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [24]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 20,600 - 21,000 yuan [24]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On September 18, the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased [25]. - **Supply**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the operating rate is expected to increase slightly in September [25]. - **Demand**: In August, the terminal demand for cast aluminum alloy was weak, and it showed a marginal improvement in September [26]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, the social inventory increased, and some areas were close to full capacity [26]. - **Logic**: The cast aluminum alloy futures price oscillated and fell. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which supports the price. The terminal orders are slightly improving, and the pre - holiday stocking demand will support the spot price. It is expected that the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [27]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan. If the short - term upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is strong, it is possible to consider the long - AD short - AL spread arbitrage when the spread is above 500 [28]. Zinc - **Spot**: On September 18, the average price of 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the market trading was light [28]. - **Supply**: The processing fees of zinc concentrate increased, and the production of refined zinc increased. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production will decrease slightly in September [29]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries generally increased in the peak season, but the procurement was mainly for rigid demand, and the domestic spot premium was at a low level [30]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [31]. - **Logic**: The zinc price is affected by the expectation of loose supply. The demand in the peak season is fair, and the domestic and foreign markets show differentiation. The upward space is limited, and the downward space is also restricted by factors such as low inventory. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [32]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [32]. Tin - **Spot**: On September 18, the price of 1 tin decreased, and the spot market trading improved slightly [33]. - **Supply**: The domestic tin ore imports in July decreased, and the supply from Africa and Myanmar decreased. The tin ingot imports increased [33][34]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of the solder industry increased in August, but the overall market is still in a state of "weak supply and demand". Attention should be paid to the demand performance in the "Golden September and Silver October" [34]. - **Inventory**: As of September 17, the LME inventory remained unchanged, the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory increased [35]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest rate cut and the strengthening of the US dollar index put pressure on the tin price. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; otherwise, it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan [36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 265,000 - 285,000 yuan [36]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of September 18, the average price of electrolytic nickel decreased [37]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level and is expected to increase slightly [37]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and stainless steel is general, the demand for alloys is good, and the price of nickel sulfate has risen strongly in the short - term but may face pressure in the medium - term [37]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory is at a relatively high level, the domestic social inventory increased, and the bonded area inventory decreased [38]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest rate cut did not bring unexpected benefits, and the macro - environment is weak. The supply of nickel ore is generally stable, and the price of nickel iron is strong. The stainless steel demand is weak, and the nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 120,000 - 125,000 yuan [40]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of September 18, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in some regions decreased [40]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of nickel iron is strong. The cost of chromium ore provides support, and the price of chromium iron has risen [40]. - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel is expected to increase in September, mainly in the 300 - series [41]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is decreasing slowly, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased [41]. - **Logic**: The stainless steel price oscillated narrowly. The macro - environment is improving, but the peak - season demand has not been fully realized. The cost provides support, and the inventory pressure has eased. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,800 - 13,400 yuan [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 12,800 - 13,400 yuan [42]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of September 18, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly, and the market was relatively calm [43]. - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate increased in August and continued to increase in the week of September 18. The supply is affected by new projects, lithium feldspar processing, and imports [44]. - **Demand**: The demand is relatively optimistic, and the seasonal performance is not obvious. The orders of battery cells are generally good, and the demand in September and October is expected to increase [44][45]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased in the previous week, with the inventory of smelters decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [45]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest rate cut did not bring unexpected benefits, and the domestic policy has been digested. The supply - demand situation is in a tight balance. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [46]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference price range for the main contract is 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [46]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The steel price decreased, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar converged [47]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of raw materials is affected by production restrictions and supply recovery expectations. The profit of steel products has declined significantly since August, and the current profit ranking is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [47]. - **Supply**: The production of iron elements from January to August increased year - on - year, and it is expected to continue to increase in the first nine months. The production of rebar decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils remained high [47]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of the five major steel products from January to August was basically flat year - on - year, and the demand in August - September decreased seasonally. The supply of rebar decreased and the demand increased, while the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased [47]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products has increased since August, mainly due to the increase in rebar inventory. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [48]. - **View**: The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory is slowly increasing. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 3100 - 3350 yuan for rebar and 3300 - 3500 yuan for hot - rolled coils. It is recommended to hold long positions at low prices and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of demand [49]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of September 18, the price of mainstream iron ore powders changed slightly [50]. - **Futures**: The 2601 and 2605 contracts of iron ore decreased slightly [50]. - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties is positive [51]. - **Demand**: As of September 18, the daily average pig iron output, blast furnace operating rate, and capacity utilization rate increased slightly, while the steel mill profitability decreased slightly [52]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment increased significantly last week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The monthly import volume increased [53]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, the daily average port clearance volume increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [53]. - **View**: The iron ore market is in a tight - balanced situation. The supply is expected to change, and the demand is supported by the relatively high pig iron output. It is recommended to view the market as oscillating and bullish, with a reference range of 780 - 850 yuan. It is recommended to go long on the 26