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科技内需引领,中游周期回暖
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-05-06 03:33
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025Q1, the year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of all A-shares turned positive from negative, and the year-on-year revenue growth rate slightly turned negative. After excluding finance and petroleum & petrochemicals, the year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of all A non-financial and non-petroleum & petrochemicals also turned positive from negative, while the year-on-year revenue growth rate slightly declined. In terms of size style, the year-on-year growth rates of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 in the single quarter of 2025Q1 turned significantly positive from negative. In terms of major sectors, the growth rates of net profit attributable to the parent of the consumer and growth sectors led in 2025Q1, those of the cyclical and financial sectors slightly turned positive, and the negative growth rate of the stable sector significantly narrowed. In terms of industries, the performance growth rates of the midstream cyclical, some consumer, and growth industries generally improved, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, household appliances, automobiles, electronics, and non-banking maintaining high-speed growth [3][19][21]. - The average negative growth of the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of existing convertible bonds in 2025Q1 significantly narrowed, and the revenue growth rate declined. After excluding some extreme values, the average growth rate of the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of existing convertible bonds in 2025Q1 significantly narrowed from -42.76% in 2024Q4 to -2.23%, and the average growth rate of single-quarter revenue in 2025Q1 decreased from 8.51% in 2024Q4 to 5.36% [3][33]. - Some convertible bonds are recommended for investment. In the cyclical sector, it is recommended to overweight convertible bonds such as Guocheng, Huayou, and Guangda. In the consumer sector, it is recommended to overweight convertible bonds in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, as well as Zhongchongzhuan 2, Xinruzhuan, and Baolong. In the growth sector, it is recommended to overweight convertible bonds such as Weice, Haopeng, Guoli, and Weil [3][7][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025Q1 Performance Growth Convertible Bond Recommendations - Among the existing 472 convertible bonds, 372 achieved profitability in the single quarter of 2025Q1. After excluding those with a balance of less than 300 million yuan and a remaining term of less than 1 year, 109 convertible bonds remain. Some convertible bonds are recommended for investment based on factors such as the sustainability of the company's high performance growth and the current price and conversion premium rate of the convertible bonds [6]. - **Cyclical Sector**: It is recommended to overweight convertible bonds with mineral resource advantages such as Guocheng and Huayou, Guangda with a positive business trend, Dongcai, Dinglong, Anji, and Zhengfan that benefit from the domestic substitution of semiconductor materials, Keli and Bo 23 that benefit from the accelerated development of the robot and AI industries, and Polai that benefits from the recovery of consumer demand and domestic substitution [7]. - **Consumer Sector**: It is recommended to overweight convertible bonds in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, including Muyuan, Juxing, Wenshi, Xiwangzhuan 2, and Hefeng. Also recommended are Zhongchongzhuan 2, the leading pet food company, Xinruzhuan, the leading regional dairy company, and Baolong, an automobile parts manufacturer [13]. - **Growth Sector**: It is recommended to overweight Weice, the leading domestic third-party integrated circuit testing service provider, Haopeng, a consumer battery manufacturer, Guoli, an electronic vacuum device manufacturer, and Weil, the global CIS leader [15]. 2. All A: Technology and Domestic Demand Lead, Midstream Cycle Warms Up - **Overall A-share Performance**: In 2025Q1, the year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of all A-shares turned positive from negative, and the year-on-year revenue growth rate slightly turned negative. After excluding finance and petroleum & petrochemicals, the year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of all A non-financial and non-petroleum & petrochemicals also turned positive from negative, while the year-on-year revenue growth rate slightly declined [19]. - **Size Style Performance**: In 2025Q1, the year-on-year growth rates of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 in the single quarter turned significantly positive from negative, while the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent of SSE 50 slightly turned negative from positive [20]. - **Sector Performance**: In 2025Q1, the growth rates of net profit attributable to the parent of the consumer and growth sectors led, those of the cyclical and financial sectors slightly turned positive, and the negative growth rate of the stable sector significantly narrowed. The revenue growth rate of the growth sector led among all sectors [21][23]. - **Industry Performance**: In 2025Q1, the performance growth rates of the midstream cyclical, some consumer, and growth industries generally improved, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, household appliances, automobiles, electronics, and non-banking maintaining high-speed growth. In terms of ROE and other aspects, the ROE levels of most downstream cyclical and consumer sectors declined, the gross profit margins of the optional consumer sector generally declined, and the net profit margins of the midstream cyclical sector generally recovered. The top 30 sub-industries in terms of single-quarter profit growth rate in 2025Q1 were mainly concentrated in the electronics, computer, and media industries [25][28][32]. 3. Convertible Bonds: Narrowing Negative Profit Growth, Declining Revenue Growth Rate - As of May 5, 2025, the existing 472 convertible bonds covered 27 out of 30 CITIC first-level industries, and 92% of the underlying stocks of the convertible bonds had a market value of less than 3 billion yuan. In terms of size style, the issuers of convertible bonds were generally closer to small and medium-cap stocks [33]. - The average negative growth of the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of existing convertible bonds in 2025Q1 significantly narrowed, and the revenue growth rate declined. After excluding some extreme values, the average growth rate of the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of existing convertible bonds in 2025Q1 significantly narrowed from -42.76% in 2024Q4 to -2.23%, and the average growth rate of single-quarter revenue in 2025Q1 decreased from 8.51% in 2024Q4 to 5.36% [33].
【中信特钢(000708.SZ)】25Q1归母净利润率创近8个季度新高,资产负债率创2019Q3以来新低——25Q1报业绩点评
光大证券研究· 2025-04-20 13:17
本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户,用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明: 公司较早前就开始布局机器人产业链,在国内和国外市场关键材料领域均有布局。公司在机器人制造领域 提供滚珠丝杠、RV减速机关键材料、谐波减速机关键材料、直线导轨、拉力器等材料,已实现批量供货, 谐波减速机柔轮用钢成功替代进口,突破了机器人关键零部件生产难题,产品已经应用于全球前五大谐波 减速机生产商中的两家。 积极促进产业转型发展,突出能源用钢地位 公司着重研发大型风电、高铁、航空航天、3D打印等领域用轴承钢、齿轮钢、高温合金、特种不锈钢、超 高强度钢、抗腐蚀管材、抗菌管线、海工用管等高端产品等,以及"深地""深海""新能源""电力"等特种装 备、重大工程、国家战略领域对关键钢铁材料的需求。 报告摘要 事件: 公司发布2025年一季度报告, ...
【中信特钢(000708.SZ)】25Q1归母净利润率创近8个季度新高,资产负债率创2019Q3以来新低——25Q1报业绩点评
光大证券研究· 2025-04-20 13:17
查看完整报告 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户,用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 点击注册小程序 特别申明: 公司较早前就开始布局机器人产业链,在国内和国外市场关键材料领域均有布局。公司在机器人制造领域 提供滚珠丝杠、RV减速机关键材料、谐波减速机关键材料、直线导轨、拉力器等材料,已实现批量供货, 谐波减速机柔轮用钢成功替代进口,突破了机器人关键零部件生产难题,产品已经应用于全球前五大谐波 减速机生产商中的两家。 积极促进产业转型发展,突出能源用钢地位 公司着重研发大型风电、高铁、航空航天、3D打印等领域用轴承钢、齿轮钢、高温合金、特种不锈钢、超 高强度钢、抗腐蚀管材、抗菌管线、海工用管等高端产品等,以及"深地""深海""新能源""电力"等特种装 备、重大工程、国家战略领域对关键钢铁材料的需求。 报告摘要 事件: 公司发布2025年一季度报告, ...