文 丨 《酒业内参 》栏目 张奥 去年 12 月 20 日，酒鬼酒发布公告称，因工作调整原因，郑轶辞去总经理职务，由程军接 棒。 如今过去了整整一年时间，在程军的带领下，酒鬼酒接连交出了"惨淡答卷"，仍未扭转困 局——在 2025 年前三季度，酒鬼酒实现营收 7.6 亿元，同比下滑 36.21% ；净利润仅 0.1 亿元，同比下滑 117.36% 。 早在该产品上市之初，便有百荣酒商透露：原本胖东来门店 1200 元一件的产品已经陆续 流入百荣市场并出现明显溢价，"进货比较困难，我们也是从黄牛手里收的，基本一件要卖 到 1350 元，平均下来单瓶也要加 25 元左右。" 彼时，除了线下门店限购外，线上更难以寻到货源。而现在产品已经明显降温，电商平台均 有散货在售，单瓶溢价幅度基本在 10-20 元。 值得注意的是，程军一直在推动酒鬼酒的年轻化进程。 在半年前，酒鬼酒称"已经进行了 33 度、 28 度、 21 度、 18 度等准备"。但如今部分产 品仍未面世，对此酒鬼酒内部员工告诉《酒业内参》："现在十多度的酒还在研发过程中。 迟迟未推出可能是因为市场调研发现反馈不好。"与之相比，其他品牌的低度酒已经在各大 ...

文 | 《酒业内参》栏目 张奥 去年12月20日，酒鬼酒(54.630, -0.31, -0.56%)发布公告称，因工作调整原因，郑轶辞去总经理职务，由程军 接棒。 如今过去了整整一年时间，在程军的带领下，酒鬼酒接连交出了"惨淡答卷"，仍未扭转困局——在2025年前 三季度，酒鬼酒实现营收7.6亿元，同比下滑36.21%；净利润仅0.1亿元，同比下滑117.36%。 彼时，除了线下门店限购外，线上更难以寻到货源。而现在产品已经明显降温，电商平台均有散货在售，单瓶 溢价幅度基本在10-20元。 2025年前三季度，酒鬼酒业绩继续"暴雷"：实现营收7.6亿元，同比下滑36.21%；净利润0.1亿元，同比下滑 117.36%。值得注意的是，这份成绩单是其在与胖东来合作产品热销后的背景下交出，这也意味着"酒鬼自由 爱"距离成为酒鬼酒扭转局面的新支柱仍有很大距离。 早在该产品上市之初，便有百荣酒商透露：原本胖东来门店1200元一件的产品已经陆续流入百荣市场并出现 明显溢价，"进货比较困难，我们也是从黄牛手里收的，基本一件要卖到1350元，平均下来单瓶也要加25元左 右。" 值得注意的是，程军一直在推动酒鬼酒的年轻化进程 ...

文 | 《酒业内参》栏目 张奥 去年12月20日，酒鬼酒发布公告称，因工作调整原因，郑轶辞去总经理职务，由程军接棒。 如今过去了整整一年时间，在程军的带领下，酒鬼酒接连交出了"惨淡答卷"，仍未扭转困局——在2025年前三季度， 酒鬼酒实现营收7.6亿元，同比下滑36.21%；净利润仅0.1亿元，同比下滑117.36%。 值得注意的是，程军一直在推动酒鬼酒的年轻化进程。 在半年前，酒鬼酒称"已经进行了33度、28度、21度、18度等准备"。但如今部分产品仍未面世，对此酒鬼酒内部员工 告诉《酒业内参》："现在十多度的酒还在研发过程中。迟迟未推出可能是因为市场调研发现反馈不好。"与之相比， 其他品牌的低度酒已经在各大平台畅销，"确实进展有些落后"。 另一个年轻化的举动是推动气泡酒，但该酒品在上市后疑似"遇冷"。多个酒商纷纷表示没货。在线上该产品销量为101 件，仅有一条评论。 自由爱"降温"，气泡酒没货？ 2025年前三季度，酒鬼酒业绩继续"暴雷"：实现营收7.6亿元，同比下滑36.21%；净利润0.1亿元，同比下滑117.36%。 值得注意的是，这份成绩单是其在与胖东来合作产品热销后的背景下交出，这也意味着"酒鬼 ...

Group 1: Industry Performance - The third-quarter reports for the liquor industry show a general decline in performance across various segments, with the white liquor sector experiencing particularly severe downturns, leading some investors to view it as a "bomb" while others see it as a sign that bad news has been fully priced in [1][9] - The overall performance of the beer industry is also down, with only a few leading companies like Qingdao Beer, Yanjing Beer, and Zhujiang Beer reporting revenue growth, while others like Budweiser AP and Chongqing Beer faced declines [13][14] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Wuliangye's new product "29 Degrees Wuliangye" achieved sales exceeding 100 million yuan within just two months of its launch, primarily through online sales channels [3] - Langjiu announced that its storage of sauce-flavored liquor has reached 300,000 tons, with a planned sales volume of no more than 30,000 tons for the following year [4] - The chairman of Jiubianli, Liu Peng, has been arrested on criminal charges, although the company asserts that this matter is unrelated to its operations [5][6] - The revenue of Kuaijishan surpassed that of Guyue Longshan in the first three quarters, with Kuaijishan reporting a revenue of 1.212 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.12% [10] Group 3: Market Reactions - Despite the poor performance reported in the third-quarter results, the stock prices of several liquor companies, including Gujing Gongjiu and Shede Jiuye, saw increases, indicating a potential market recovery or investor optimism [9] - In the northwest region, companies like Tianyoude and Yilite reported significant declines in revenue and net profit, while Jinhui Wine managed to limit its declines to a slight drop in revenue of 0.97% [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wuliangye [3][6][9] Core Views - Wuliangye's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 60.945 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.26% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21.511 billion yuan, down 13.72% year-on-year [5][6] - The company is actively adjusting its product structure and sales strategies in response to a challenging consumption environment, which has led to a decrease in gross profit margins [6][7] - A mid-term dividend distribution plan was announced, proposing a cash dividend of 25.78 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 10.007 billion yuan, aimed at strengthening market confidence [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, the company reported a revenue of 83.272 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13% [3] - The projected revenues for 2025E and 2026E are 76.007 billion yuan and 76.518 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a significant decline in 2025E of 15% year-on-year [3][6] - The net profit for 2025E is expected to be 26.541 billion yuan, a decrease of 17% year-on-year [3][6] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 2.13 percentage points to 74.93%, with a significant drop in the third quarter to 62.64% [6][7] - The net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 36.45%, down 1.75 percentage points year-on-year [6][7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand strength and adapting to younger consumer trends by launching new products, such as the 29-degree Wuliangye, which achieved over 100 million yuan in sales within two months of its launch [6][7] - The report highlights the company's proactive measures to manage inventory and optimize distributor structures in response to market conditions [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company [1][9]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 609.5 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 215.1 billion RMB, down 13.7% [6][9]. - In Q3 2025, total revenue was 81.7 billion RMB, reflecting a significant decline of 52.7% year-on-year, with net profit down 65.6% [6][9]. - The company is actively reforming its marketing strategies and focusing on brand value enhancement, despite facing external pressures on core product sales and pricing [6][9]. - A cash dividend of 25.78 RMB per 10 shares is proposed, totaling 10 billion RMB, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [6][9]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025 are adjusted to 77.065 billion RMB, a decrease of 13.58% from previous estimates, with net profit expected to be 26.162 billion RMB, down 17.87% [5][9]. - The company's gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 74.9%, with a more pronounced drop in Q3 to 62.6% [8][9]. - The report highlights a significant decline in cash flow, with operating cash flow at -28.9 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 117.65% [8][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on channel health and inventory reduction, with a stable growth in the opening rate of its premium products [7][9]. - The marketing reform is expected to enhance brand value and market presence, with a long-term view of sustainable development [6][9]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong brand power and ongoing marketing reforms as key drivers for future growth [9].

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye Group, valued at over 500 billion yuan, announces its return to the low-alcohol liquor market with the launch of a 29-degree product priced from 399 yuan, aiming to capture the younger consumer segment [2][4]. Product Launch - The new low-alcohol liquor is a 29-degree fragrant type, designed to meet the younger demographic's preference for a "low-spiciness, light-burden" drinking experience [6]. - Multiple product specifications are offered, with the main product being a 500ml bottle priced at 399 yuan, and a 100ml trial pack priced at 300 yuan for three bottles, lowering the entry barrier for young consumers [6]. Market Response - The announcement has sparked significant discussion on social media, with many consumers expressing interest in the product's price and taste, and some already purchasing the trial pack [8]. - Initial feedback from pre-sale platforms indicates a positive response, with many fans of spokesperson G.E.M. commenting on their purchases [8]. Market Strategy - Wuliangye's return to the low-alcohol liquor market is seen as a strategic move to address the challenges posed by generational shifts in consumption and to capitalize on growth opportunities in the low-alcohol segment [10]. - A survey conducted by Wuliangye among 1,000 young consumers aged 20-35 revealed that only 19% prefer traditional liquor, while 60% favor low-alcohol options, highlighting a significant market shift [10]. Industry Growth - The low-alcohol liquor market is projected to exceed 74 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 25%, significantly outpacing the overall growth of the liquor industry [11]. - A report indicates that 21.1% of liquor companies are prioritizing the development of youth-oriented products as a core strategy [11]. Company Performance - Wuliangye's revenue for the full year 2024 is reported at 89.175 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of only 7.09%, indicating a need for new growth avenues [11]. - The company emphasizes that capturing the young consumer demographic is crucial for its future development and market positioning [13].