Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a deep adjustment period in 2025, characterized by declining volume and price, with a significant contraction in consumption scenarios, leading to a challenging market environment [1][2][4] - Looking ahead to 2026, the industry is expected to face intensified competition due to weak demand, but leading companies are shifting their strategies to focus on consumer-centric approaches, targeting younger consumers and low-alcohol products [1][5] Industry Overview 2025 - The year 2025 is described as exceptionally challenging for the Chinese liquor industry, with companies, distributors, and investors facing severe tests [2] - The mid-to-high-end liquor market is projected to have lost 30-40% of its value, with significant sales declines reported during the summer months [4] Industry Outlook 2026 - The liquor industry is anticipated to remain in a weak demand environment, with ongoing adjustments and increased competitive pressure [5][6] - Companies are focusing on consumer-centric strategies to solidify their market positions, with a clear trend towards product differentiation [5] Competitive Landscape - Companies like Wuliangye aim to dominate the 800-1000 yuan price segment and are working to establish their flagship product, Wuliangye 1618, as a billion-yuan product [6][7] - Luzhou Laojiao is pursuing a differentiated competition strategy by promoting low-alcohol products, which have gained popularity among younger consumers [7] - Shanxi Fenjiu is also focusing on younger consumers and expanding its national presence [7] Long-term Opportunities - Despite short-term challenges, the liquor industry holds structural growth opportunities driven by the expansion of the middle class and new consumer scenarios [8] - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a GDP growth rate of around 5% during the 14th Five-Year Plan, providing a solid foundation for the liquor industry to navigate through the adjustment period [8] - Upcoming supportive policies from the government are anticipated to benefit the liquor industry, with specific measures expected from regions like Sichuan [8][9]

2025年，白酒行业全面进入深度调整期，市场环境复杂多变，酒企、渠道商与投资者都面临严峻考验。"2025年是中国白酒行业发展史上极不 平凡、极为不易、极其艰辛的一年。"五粮液（000858.SZ）董事长曾从钦在公司经销商大会上直言。 即使是中国白酒龙头，贵州茅台（600519.SH）也感到了十足的寒意。在近日举行的经销商大会上，公司董事长陈华用"行业形势严峻"、"行业 深度调整期"来定调2025年。"2025年，白酒行业上市企业不同程度地存在量价齐跌、消费场景迁移等问题，前三季度主要指标均出现增速放缓 甚至负增长的情况。"陈华表示。 "2025年的白酒市场，中秋节表现特别明显，白酒行业中高端市场估计有30-40%蒸发掉了。"泸州老窖（000568.SZ）管理层在12月24日举行的 股东会上坦言，今年6-8月整个白酒市场停摆，5-7月经销商销售平均下降73%，9-10月好一点，11-12月销售不算乐观，很多产品销量腰斩。 白酒市场遭遇"寒冬"，也反应在白酒价格上。以贵州茅台为例，其核心产品——53度、500ml飞天茅台批价从年初的约2300元/瓶，跌至目前的 约1580元/瓶。更惨的是其他中小品牌，被华润啤酒（ ...

作为东道主，五粮液精选29°五粮液•一见倾心、39度五粮液、第八代五粮液、五粮液•荣耀纪念系 列60周年及2004年第七代五粮液五款代表性产品参与品评。产品均以典型的复合香、细腻圆润的酒体与 谐调绵长的回味，展现了五粮液在低度化、陈酿工艺与风味表达方面的持续探索，获得了在场中国白酒 首席品酒师的一致好评。 值得一提的是，年轻化战略新品29°五粮液•一见倾心，得到了"色泽清澈透明；五粮液典型的复合 香，果香、甜香较突出；酒体轻盈，入口柔和顺滑，绵甜雅致，余味回甘，低而不淡"的高度评价。 在近日举行的五粮液第二十九届12•18共识共建共享大会上，五粮液提出要"突出品质为基，用心酿 好每一瓶酒"。酿好酒的背后，正需要以首席品酒师为代表的专业力量，在连接传统技艺与当代消费需 求、推动风味个性化构建中发挥关键作用。 五粮液相关负责人表示，未来将继续坚定不移把卓越品质作为立企之基，通过筑牢原粮供应首要关 卡、严守生态酿造关键工艺、紧紧抓住科技创新重要驱动、聚力健全质量管理闭环，持续夯实"从一粒 种子到一滴美酒"的全链条品质根基，以历史经典产业的传承者与创新者之姿，共酿和美生活，为中国 白酒可持续发展贡献力量。 2025中 ...

12月20日，2025中国白酒首席品酒师年会在四川宜宾举行。本届年会由中国酒业协会主办、五粮液承办，以"品香匠韵，和合共赏"为主题，汇聚了来自全国 各地的中国白酒首席品酒师及行业代表，交流探讨白酒品评技艺，为中国白酒品质发展提供技术性建议和思想借鉴，助推白酒行业共识、共建、共享。 作为东道主，五粮液精选29°五粮液·一见倾心、39度五粮液、第八代五粮液、五粮液·荣耀纪念系列60周年及2004年第七代五粮液五款代表性产品参与品评。 产品均以典型的复合香、细腻圆润的酒体与谐调绵长的回味，展现了五粮液在低度化、陈酿工艺与风味表达方面的持续探索，获得了在场中国白酒首席品酒 师的一致好评。 值得一提的是，年轻化战略新品29°五粮液·一见倾心，得到了"色泽清澈透明；五粮液典型的复合香，果香、甜香较突出；酒体轻盈，入口柔和顺滑，绵甜 雅致，余味回甘，低而不淡"的高度评价。 在近日举行的五粮液第二十九届12·18共识共建共享大会上，五粮液提出要"突出品质为基，用心酿好每一瓶酒"。酿好酒的背后，正需要以首席品酒师为代 表的专业力量，在连接传统技艺与当代消费需求、推动风味个性化构建中发挥关键作用。 五粮液相关负责人表示，未来将继 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly emphasizing the strategic importance of expanding domestic demand and consumption [3][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic initiative for economic stability and security, with government agencies prioritizing this in their upcoming plans [3][8]. - Despite recent price fluctuations in high-end liquor, the report anticipates a recovery in the market, projecting a potential turning point in fundamentals by Q3 2026 [3][8]. - The report recommends several high-quality liquor companies for long-term investment, including Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye, while also suggesting attention to other brands [3][8]. - For consumer goods, the report identifies opportunities in sectors like seasoning, frozen foods, and dairy, recommending companies such as Anjuke Foods, Yili, and QD Beer [3][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a 1.05% increase last week, with liquor experiencing a slight decline of 0.58% [7]. - The report ranks the food and beverage sector 13th among 31 sub-industries in terms of performance [7]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The report provides detailed price updates for major liquor brands, noting Moutai's bottle price at 1545 RMB, a week-on-week increase of 45 RMB, and Wuliangye's price remaining stable at approximately 780 RMB [9][35]. - The report emphasizes the need for liquor companies to optimize their product matrices and channels to adapt to external pressures [9]. 3. Industry Matters - The report discusses the anticipated improvement in food CPI due to structural demand changes and a shift from price competition to quality competition among companies [3][8]. - It highlights the expected gradual recovery in the dairy sector, with recommendations for Yili and New Dairy [10][11]. 4. Valuation Table - The report notes the current dynamic PE for the food and beverage sector at 20.10x, with a premium rate of 24%, and for liquor at 18.49x, with a premium rate of 14% [35].

茅台股东大会的餐桌上，飞天茅台被悄然撤下，换上了21元一瓶的蓝莓果汁，这个微小变化背后，是一场席卷整个白酒行业的深度危机。 "欢迎晚宴上股东交流明显变少，不及以往热闹了。"一位参加贵州茅台2025年股东大会的投资者回忆，餐桌上的飞天茅台被替换成了蓝莓果汁。 而茅台生态农业公司的这款蓝莓汁，在电商平台售价仅约21元一瓶。 这不仅是贵州茅台对中央"新禁酒令"的响应，更映射出白酒行业面临的深刻变局。中国酒业协会最新报告显示，2025年上半年白酒行业呈现"量价齐跌，费 用上升"的特点。 01 产量萎缩，白酒市场"量价双杀" 白酒行业正在经历连续第八年的产量下滑。2025年一季度，全国白酒产量仅为103.2万千升，同比下降7.2%。 与2016年的产量高峰1358.4万千升相比，如今的产量已经缩水了约三分之二。 市场表现更为严峻。调查显示，59.7% 的酒企营业利润减少，50.9% 的企业营业额下滑。行业平均存货周转天数已长达900天，意味着企业需要近两年半的 时间才能清空库存。 2025年上半年白酒企业业绩呈现两极分化，具体数据如下： 行业前六大企业营收已占据整体市场的八成以上，利润占比更是高达86%。 · 贵州茅台 ...

Core Insights - The 29th "12·18 Consensus Co-construction and Sharing Conference" of Wuliangye was held in Yibin, focusing on "New Situation, New Opportunities, New Journey" [1][3] - The conference is significant as it marks a critical transition point for the liquor industry, emphasizing Wuliangye's leadership in navigating changes and promoting sustainable high-quality development [3][4] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The year 2025 is anticipated to be challenging for the liquor industry, characterized by inventory and pricing pressures, alongside tests of confidence and partnership resilience [4] - The change in the conference's name from "Co-discussion, Co-construction, and Sharing" to "Consensus Co-construction and Sharing" symbolizes a strategic shift towards long-term value recognition and emotional connections with partners [6][8] Group 2: Company Strategy - Wuliangye's chairman highlighted that the current industry adjustment is cyclical, structural, and a return to market rationality, asserting the company's capability to seize opportunities during this phase [10] - The evolution of the partnership model reflects a deeper understanding of the industry chain, transitioning from a transactional relationship to a collaborative development community [10] Group 3: Product Strategy - Wuliangye is adapting to a "Three Rationality Era" in consumer behavior, focusing on the real value of products, cultural recognition, and emotional resonance [11] - The product strategy includes a clear framework with a core brand supported by various product lines, aiming to establish a comprehensive and competitive product matrix [11][13] - The introduction of the new Wuliangye zodiac wine reflects the brand's commitment to cultural and emotional value, expanding the product's significance beyond mere consumption [15] Group 4: Channel Strategy - Wuliangye is implementing a dual approach of strict management and optimization in its channel strategy to create a healthier and more efficient channel ecosystem [16] - The company is restructuring its organizational framework to enhance regional market responsiveness and improve marketing resource allocation [18] - Plans include the addition of new retail formats and partnerships with leading companies to expand market reach and enhance consumer engagement [18][19]

Core Insights - The 29th 12·18 Consensus Building and Sharing Conference of Wuliangye was held in Yibin, focusing on "New Situation, New Opportunities, New Journey" [2][3] - The conference highlighted Wuliangye's commitment to building a community of shared destiny with distributors and showcased its strategic planning for high-quality development [2][3] Industry Context - 2025 marks a significant year for the Chinese liquor industry, facing deep adjustments and challenges such as market changes and intensified competition [3][5] - The conference serves as a key observation point for how companies like Wuliangye respond to these industry challenges [3] Company Strategy - Wuliangye's chairman outlined the company's approach to overcoming market challenges through proactive adjustments, collaboration, and a focus on quality and innovation [5] - The company reported significant growth in various product lines, with the Wuliangye·1618 achieving over 30% growth in banquet market engagement and a 20% increase in banquet activities [5][9] Product and Market Performance - Wuliangye's international market expansion is evident with the opening of a large restaurant in Singapore and a Michelin-starred restaurant in Japan [6] - The company received notable awards for quality, including a nomination for the "Fifth China Quality Award" and the highest level EFQM certification [9] Future Outlook - For 2026, Wuliangye plans to initiate a "Marketing Integrity and Innovation Year," focusing on five strategic areas to solidify market foundations and enhance brand strength [11][12] - The company aims to expand its consumer base by targeting younger demographics and enhancing its channel strategies [13] Community and Collaboration - The conference emphasized the importance of building consensus among manufacturers and distributors to navigate industry challenges [17][20] - Wuliangye's commitment to collaboration was reflected in awards presented to outstanding distributors, reinforcing a unified approach to market challenges [20][21] Conclusion - Wuliangye's proactive strategies and strong performance metrics position it as a leader in the liquor industry, providing a model for navigating the current market landscape [22]

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye expresses a self-assessment of "stability with progress" and "stability with improvement," indicating confidence in navigating industry challenges and seizing new opportunities amid market adjustments [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, Wuliangye's revenue decreased by 10.26%, and net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 13.72% [3] - In Q3, Wuliangye's revenue was 8.174 billion yuan, a significant decline of 52.66% year-on-year, while net profit was 2.019 billion yuan, down 65.62% year-on-year [3] - The price of Wuliangye's core product, the eighth generation of Wuliangye, is currently 850 yuan per bottle, with a factory price of 1,019 yuan and an official suggested retail price of 1,499 yuan [3] Group 2: Market Conditions and Opportunities - Wuliangye believes that the macroeconomic environment is improving, providing a solid economic foundation for the white liquor industry to undergo counter-cyclical adjustments [3] - The company identifies the emergence of new business demographics and consumption scenarios as a strong market foundation for continued white liquor consumption [3] - National policies have officially categorized liquor production as a "historical classic industry," with provinces like Sichuan and Guizhou incorporating high-quality development of this sector into their 14th Five-Year Plan [4] Group 3: Strategic Confidence - Wuliangye expresses confidence in its product quality, brand strength, and market advantages, supported by a loyal distributor network and a strong marketing team [4] - The company has over 100 billion yuan in cash reserves, which bolsters its ability to face challenges [4] Group 4: Strategic Measures - Wuliangye has elevated the concept of a "shared destiny with distributors," emphasizing the importance of channel profits and returns for distributors [5] - The product strategy includes a focus on the eighth generation of Wuliangye as the core, with plans to balance pricing and expand high-end product offerings [5] - The company plans to strictly manage channel supply, curtail low-price dumping, and enhance its retail presence by adding 100 exclusive stores and optimizing existing ones [5]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a significant transformation characterized by rational consumption attitudes and structural changes in products, markets, and consumer behavior [2][3] Group 1: Company Strategy - Wuliangye has positioned 2026 as the "Year of Marketing Integrity and Innovation," focusing on enhancing brand value and implementing various strategic initiatives [1][4] - The company aims to balance strategic stability with proactive changes to navigate through industry cycles effectively [1][4] - Wuliangye is adopting a systematic approach to prepare for market recovery and brand elevation, emphasizing collaboration with distributors and optimizing channel structures [1][2] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The liquor industry is facing four major issues: overcapacity, high inventory levels, price inversions, and lack of consumption scenarios [2] - In the first three quarters of the year, the combined revenue of 20 A-share liquor companies was 317.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.90%, with net profits down by 6.93% to 12.26 billion yuan [2] - Despite these challenges, there are signs of recovery, including the optimization of capacity and a gradual improvement in inventory management [2][3] Group 3: Future Opportunities - The industry is expected to benefit from economic resilience and structural transformations, with new consumer demographics and scenarios emerging [3] - By 2026, the liquor market is anticipated to see improvements, with demand policies becoming less impactful and consumption scenarios steadily recovering [3] - Wuliangye's strategic shift towards a consumer-driven approach reflects a commitment to long-term competitiveness amid industry adjustments [6]