发布时间：2025-12-22 行业投资评级 证券研究报告：食品饮料|行业周报 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 16685.08 | | 52 | 周最高 | 18638.17 | | 52 | 周最低 | 16379.5 | 行业相对指数表现 -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《政治局会议强化扩内需，茅台批价短 期调控，三只松鼠进军社区硬折扣业 态》 - 2025.12 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly emphasizing the strategic importance of expanding domestic demand and consumption [3][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic initiative for economic stability and security, with government agencies prioritizing this in their upcoming plans [3][8]. - Despite recent price fluctuations in high-end liquor, the report anticipates a recovery in the market, projecting a potential turning point in fundamentals by Q3 2026 [3][8]. - The report recommends several high-quality liquor companies for long-term investment, including Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye, while also suggesting attention to other brands [3][8]. - For consumer goods, the report identifies opportunities in sectors like seasoning, frozen foods, and dairy, recommending companies such as Anjuke Foods, Yili, and QD Beer [3][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a 1.05% increase last week, with liquor experiencing a slight decline of 0.58% [7]. - The report ranks the food and beverage sector 13th among 31 sub-industries in terms of performance [7]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The report provides detailed price updates for major liquor brands, noting Moutai's bottle price at 1545 RMB, a week-on-week increase of 45 RMB, and Wuliangye's price remaining stable at approximately 780 RMB [9][35]. - The report emphasizes the need for liquor companies to optimize their product matrices and channels to adapt to external pressures [9]. 3. Industry Matters - The report discusses the anticipated improvement in food CPI due to structural demand changes and a shift from price competition to quality competition among companies [3][8]. - It highlights the expected gradual recovery in the dairy sector, with recommendations for Yili and New Dairy [10][11]. 4. Valuation Table - The report notes the current dynamic PE for the food and beverage sector at 20.10x, with a premium rate of 24%, and for liquor at 18.49x, with a premium rate of 14% [35].

Core Insights - The 29th "12·18 Consensus Co-construction and Sharing Conference" of Wuliangye was held in Yibin, focusing on "New Situation, New Opportunities, New Journey" [1][3] - The conference is significant as it marks a critical transition point for the liquor industry, emphasizing Wuliangye's leadership in navigating changes and promoting sustainable high-quality development [3][4] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The year 2025 is anticipated to be challenging for the liquor industry, characterized by inventory and pricing pressures, alongside tests of confidence and partnership resilience [4] - The change in the conference's name from "Co-discussion, Co-construction, and Sharing" to "Consensus Co-construction and Sharing" symbolizes a strategic shift towards long-term value recognition and emotional connections with partners [6][8] Group 2: Company Strategy - Wuliangye's chairman highlighted that the current industry adjustment is cyclical, structural, and a return to market rationality, asserting the company's capability to seize opportunities during this phase [10] - The evolution of the partnership model reflects a deeper understanding of the industry chain, transitioning from a transactional relationship to a collaborative development community [10] Group 3: Product Strategy - Wuliangye is adapting to a "Three Rationality Era" in consumer behavior, focusing on the real value of products, cultural recognition, and emotional resonance [11] - The product strategy includes a clear framework with a core brand supported by various product lines, aiming to establish a comprehensive and competitive product matrix [11][13] - The introduction of the new Wuliangye zodiac wine reflects the brand's commitment to cultural and emotional value, expanding the product's significance beyond mere consumption [15] Group 4: Channel Strategy - Wuliangye is implementing a dual approach of strict management and optimization in its channel strategy to create a healthier and more efficient channel ecosystem [16] - The company is restructuring its organizational framework to enhance regional market responsiveness and improve marketing resource allocation [18] - Plans include the addition of new retail formats and partnerships with leading companies to expand market reach and enhance consumer engagement [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye expresses a self-assessment of "stability with progress" and "stability with improvement," indicating confidence in navigating industry challenges and seizing new opportunities amid market adjustments [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, Wuliangye's revenue decreased by 10.26%, and net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 13.72% [3] - In Q3, Wuliangye's revenue was 8.174 billion yuan, a significant decline of 52.66% year-on-year, while net profit was 2.019 billion yuan, down 65.62% year-on-year [3] - The price of Wuliangye's core product, the eighth generation of Wuliangye, is currently 850 yuan per bottle, with a factory price of 1,019 yuan and an official suggested retail price of 1,499 yuan [3] Group 2: Market Conditions and Opportunities - Wuliangye believes that the macroeconomic environment is improving, providing a solid economic foundation for the white liquor industry to undergo counter-cyclical adjustments [3] - The company identifies the emergence of new business demographics and consumption scenarios as a strong market foundation for continued white liquor consumption [3] - National policies have officially categorized liquor production as a "historical classic industry," with provinces like Sichuan and Guizhou incorporating high-quality development of this sector into their 14th Five-Year Plan [4] Group 3: Strategic Confidence - Wuliangye expresses confidence in its product quality, brand strength, and market advantages, supported by a loyal distributor network and a strong marketing team [4] - The company has over 100 billion yuan in cash reserves, which bolsters its ability to face challenges [4] Group 4: Strategic Measures - Wuliangye has elevated the concept of a "shared destiny with distributors," emphasizing the importance of channel profits and returns for distributors [5] - The product strategy includes a focus on the eighth generation of Wuliangye as the core, with plans to balance pricing and expand high-end product offerings [5] - The company plans to strictly manage channel supply, curtail low-price dumping, and enhance its retail presence by adding 100 exclusive stores and optimizing existing ones [5]

当下的白酒行业，正经历深度调整与周期寒意。龙头企业的一举一动，尤其受到关注。 12月18日，五粮液第二十九届12·18经销商大会如约举行。超过1500位经销商与投资者的到来，让 五粮液这场延续近三十年的盛会承载着不一样的期待。 谋篇"十五五"："五个统筹""三个突出" 其中，产品体系重构，是五粮液"品质为基"的重要支撑。 将2026定位"营销守正创新年"，并明确了"一核心三强化双目标"营销方针。 其中，针对渠道方面的调整，2026年，五粮液将调整优化传统渠道，聚焦终端建设包括经销商反向 激励，深耕当地团购与零售市场等；严管整顿渠道供给，坚决遏制低价抛售等冲击市场秩序的大批发行 为，取消跨省开箱、跨渠道窜货等不合规、低质量的销售奖励，坚决终止同扰乱市场秩序的商家合作； 持续完善"三店一家"网络布局，新增专卖店80家，保持总量在1700家左右，新增集合店300家，文化体 验店10家。此外，还将大力培育新兴渠道，积极拥抱电商渠道，进一步提升线上市场份额；加大电商直 采力度，逐步扭转乱商无序的供货局面。 站在"十四五"圆满收官与"十五五"即将启航的关键交汇点，五粮液明确将"十五五"视为塑造新优 势、培育新动能的重要窗 ...

"即将过去的2025年是中国酒业发展史上极不平凡、极不容易、极其艰辛的一年，整个产业正在 经历一场涉及产品结构、市场结构、消费结构的全方位、颠覆性深刻变革。" 1 2月1 8日，五粮液第二十九届12·18共识共建共享大会在宜宾举行。对于"十四五"的收 官之年，五粮液集团（股份）公司党委书记、董事长曾从钦用三个"极"予以总结。 巩固头部名酒优势后，五粮液对"十五五"依然保持高度信心。 2 0 26年是"十五五"开局之年，五粮液已确定为"营销守正创新年"，在年度目标方面明确 提出，要着力推动高质量的市场动销、全力实现市场份额的有效提升。 "本轮调整是整个白酒行业竞争格局结构的重构、价值导向的重构、市场逻辑的重构、利 益相关方关系的重构，也是五粮液顺势而为、逆势而上的战略机遇期。"曾从钦说。 凝聚共识 危中寻机 从1 997年至今，五粮液每年都固定于1 2月18日举行经销商大会。多年来，12·18大会已 经成为整个白酒行业关注的焦点。 今年，五粮液时隔多年首次将大会名称中的"共商共建共享"调整为"共识共建共享"。一 字之差，背后五粮液对当前白酒行情和厂商关系的深入思考。 2 0 25年，白酒行业进一步迈入深度调整期 ...

"白酒第二"不稳，业绩被汾酒反超，五粮液不得不变革了 【中国白酒网】12月18日，以"新形势 新机遇 新征程"为主题的五粮液第二十九届"12•18"共识共建 共享大会在四川宜宾召开。 在白酒行业深度调整的当下，五粮液（000858.SZ）"白酒第二"宝座受到冲击，三季度业绩罕见遭 山西汾酒（600809.SH）反超。与此同时，公司还面临核心产品价格倒挂、终端动销不畅等一系列问 题。 面对这一局面，五粮液亟待开展新一轮变革，此次"12•18"经销商大会也颇受外界关注。自1997年 起，五粮液开始举办"12•18"大会，至今年已举办二十九届，该大会也成为白酒行业最受关注的大会之 一。 值得注意的是，今年"12•18"大会的名称略有改变。在举办之初，该大会以"厂商共建共赢"为名， 2017年后升级为"共商共建共享"。今年的会议名称则变为"共识共建共享"，"共商"变更为"共识"。 此次大会上，五粮液董事长曾从钦表示，五粮液将2026年定位为"营销守正创新年"，营销方针 是"一核心三强化双目标"，即以持续提升五粮液品牌价值为核心，强化营销变革、强化应市策略、强化 执行能力，全力推动高质量的市场动销、全力实现市场份额的有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The year has been described as extraordinarily challenging for the liquor industry, with Wuliangye adapting through innovation, collaboration, and proactive measures to navigate market changes and pressures [3][9]. Group 1: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - Wuliangye has effectively advanced channel innovation, adding 474 new traditional channels and achieving direct distribution coverage in 20 core cities [3][9]. - The liquor industry is entering a complex fifth round of deep adjustment, characterized as "cyclical," "structural," and "regressive" [3][9]. - There are significant opportunities for industry growth, driven by a favorable macroeconomic environment and structural changes in consumer demographics and consumption scenarios [3][9][11]. Group 2: Policy and Market Trends - Recent industry policies have provided support for the liquor sector, emphasizing the importance of historical and cultural value in liquor production [4][10]. - Consumer trends such as youth engagement, female consumption, and the aging population are identified as key areas for market expansion [5][11]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Wuliangye aims to leverage five key advantages: quality, brand, market, team, and financial strength [5][11]. - The company has outlined its mission to preserve historical classics and its vision to become a globally recognized leader in the liquor industry [5][11]. - A comprehensive strategy called "Five New Expansions" will focus on targeting new consumer groups, channels, scenarios, markets, and operational mechanisms [6][12]. Group 4: Product Development - Wuliangye plans to establish a product system centered around its eighth-generation liquor, with strategic products aimed at achieving significant sales milestones [6][12][13]. - The company intends to create four national strategic products in the fragrant liquor category, targeting sales tiers of 100 billion, 50 billion, 20 billion, and 10 billion [13].

五粮液集团（股份）公司党委书记、董事长曾从钦在会上表示，五粮液将着力构建主品牌"一核两擎两 驱一新"的产品体系。其中，"一核"以第八代五粮液为核心；"两擎"是经典系列、紫气东来定位超高 端；"两驱"是1618五粮液、39度五粮液定位为新增长点，着力打造成为两个百亿级大单品；"一新"是坚 持以五粮液一见倾心为新锐。五粮液浓香酒方面，要打造五粮春、尖庄、五粮特头曲、五粮醇四个全国 性战略大单品，形成100亿级、50亿级、20亿级、10亿级的梯队产品架构。 您对此有何看法，欢迎下面评论区留言分享。 您对此有何看法，欢迎下面评论区留言分享。 12月18日，以"新形势 新机遇 新征程"为主题的五粮液第二十九届12·18共识共建共享大会在宜宾召开。 12月18日，以"新形势 新机遇 新征程"为主题的五粮液第二十九届12·18共识共建共享大会在宜宾召开。 五粮液集团（股份）公司党委书记、董事长曾从钦在会上表示，五粮液将着力构建主品牌"一核两擎两 驱一新"的产品体系。其中，"一核"以第八代五粮液为核心；"两擎"是经典系列、紫气东来定位超高 端；"两驱"是1618五粮液、39度五粮液定位为新增长点，着力打造成为两个百亿级大单品 ...

"两擎"是经典系列，紫气东来，定位超高端主力产品，加力加劲开展市场培育，加快占领消费者心智， 真正树立价格标杆和价值标杆； 具体而言，"一核"是坚持以第八代五粮液为核心，定位为基本盘，加大量价关系平衡； 12月18日，五粮液第二十九届12·18共识共建共享大会上，五粮液集团（股份）公司党委书记、董事长 曾从钦表示，全方位重构产品体系，着力构建主品牌"一核两擎两驱一新"的产品体系，实施差异化、专 业化运营。 具体而言，"一核"是坚持以第八代五粮液为核心，定位为基本盘，加大量价关系平衡； "两擎"是经典系列，紫气东来，定位超高端主力产品，加力加劲开展市场培育，加快占领消费者心智， 真正树立价格标杆和价值标杆； "两驱"是1618五粮液、39度五粮液定位为新增长点，着力打造成为两个百亿级大单品；"一新"是坚持以 五粮液·一见倾心为新锐。 曾从钦还强调，五粮液浓香酒方面，要打造五粮春、尖庄、五粮特头曲、五粮醇四个全国性战略大单 品，形成100亿级、50亿级、20亿级、10亿级的梯队产品架构。 "两驱"是1618五粮液、39度五粮液定位为新增长点，着力打造成为两个百亿级大单品；"一新"是坚持以 五粮液·一见倾心为新锐。 ...