Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is currently in a deep value zone, with the CITIC liquor index showing a rebound and a dividend yield of 3.72% as of July 25, 2025, indicating strong profitability and willingness to distribute dividends [1][13]. - The restaurant supply chain is undergoing active transformation, with companies like Weizhi Xiang expanding their product categories and enhancing their sales channels, particularly in lower-tier cities [2][14]. - The snack food sector is focusing on steady growth in store openings and exploring new product categories, with companies like Wancheng Group adapting to market demands [3][15]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The CITIC liquor index has seen a rebound, with a dividend yield of 3.72% as of July 25, 2025, placing it in a deep value zone [1][13]. - The cumulative net profit for the liquor sector is projected to reach 166.6 billion yuan in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 71% [1][13]. - The proportion of actively managed equity public funds holding liquor stocks has decreased to 5.1%, indicating significant clearing of positions [1][13]. - The market price of Moutai has dropped over 10% since the announcement of austerity measures, impacting confidence in the market [1][13]. Restaurant Supply Chain - Weizhi Xiang is actively transforming its channels, expanding product categories, and enhancing its online presence to boost sales [2][14]. - The company is also focusing on expanding into lower-tier cities and encouraging franchisees to open multiple stores [2][14]. - The B-end group meal channel has shown significant growth, with expectations for further expansion [2][14]. Snack Food Sector - Wancheng Group is maintaining a steady pace of store openings, with an increase in customer traffic despite a slight decline in average transaction value [3][15]. - The company is transitioning from rapid expansion to improving operational efficiency and brand building [3][15]. - New product categories are being explored, including collaborations with local suppliers for baked goods [3][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining positions in dairy and snack sectors, recommending companies like Yili and Yanjinpuzi for core holdings [4][43]. - It also advises flexible trading in underperforming sectors with potential for recovery, such as Lihai Food and New Dairy [4][43]. - For the liquor sector, it recommends focusing on companies with better competitive positioning, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [4][43].

Group 1 - The implementation of the "Regulations on Practicing Thrift and Opposing Waste" has led to a continuous reduction in the demand for liquor from government sectors, negatively impacting both sentiment and consumption in the liquor sector [1] - Wuliangye (000858) reported good growth in the banquet market and bottle opening rates in the first half of the year, adapting its eighth generation product to market rhythms and enhancing terminal control capabilities through direct distribution in 20 key cities [1] - Luzhou Laojiao (000568) is focusing on expanding into lower-tier markets and accelerating the development of mid- and low-alcohol innovative beverages, with a successful R&D of 28-degree Guojiao 1573 ready for market launch [1] - Jiugui Liquor (000799) is implementing a differentiated product strategy to meet diverse market demands, emphasizing cost-effectiveness through the launch of low-end, low-alcohol, and small-sized products [1] - The overall valuation of the liquor sector is low, with many liquor companies engaging in share buybacks or increases in holdings, and dividend payouts are continuously increasing, indicating potential for capital inflow as domestic demand policies are released [1] Group 2 - The Food and Beverage ETF (515170) tracks the CSI segmented food and beverage industry theme index, focusing on high-barrier and resilient sectors such as liquor, beverages, dairy products, and seasoning [2] - The top ten constituent stocks of the ETF include major liquor brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Fenjiu, providing investors with a convenient tool for exposure to core assets in the "food and beverage" sector [2] - Compared to the high minimum investment thresholds of individual constituent stocks, the Food and Beverage ETF offers a more accessible investment option for smaller capital [2]

Group 1 - Yang Weiguo has been removed from his positions as Chairman of Yanghe Group and other related companies, raising concerns about management stability and strategic continuity in the industry [1] - Yanghe Co. announced on June 11 that Yang Weiguo resigned from the board and strategic committee due to work adjustments, effective until the end of the current board term [1] Group 2 - Wuliangye reported good growth in banquet market size and opening rates in the first half of the year, indicating a positive market performance [2] - The company is adapting its market strategy for its products, including direct distribution to 20 key cities to reduce logistics costs and enhance control over the terminal network [2] - Wuliangye is focusing on high-quality development and increasing market investment through membership systems and marketing activities to cultivate consumer engagement [2] Group 3 - *ST Yanshi has received a civil lawsuit regarding a service contract dispute, with the plaintiff seeking 25.75 million yuan [3] - The company has stated that it cannot assess the potential impact of the lawsuit on current or future profits as the case has not yet been formally heard [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share liquor industry has experienced a significant decline of over 40% since its peak in February 2021, with the white liquor sector particularly struggling, contrasting sharply with its previous popularity before 2021 [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - From 2022 to 2024, the net profit growth rate of A-share listed liquor companies is projected to decline, with figures of 20.3%, 18.9%, and 7.4% respectively, marking a significant drop from the double-digit growth seen in previous years [2]. - In Q1 2025, total revenue for listed liquor companies reached 153.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, while net profit was 63.39 billion yuan, up 2.3% [4]. - Despite some companies like Moutai and Wuliangye showing positive growth, nearly half of the A-share liquor companies reported declining performance, with some experiencing revenue drops of up to 80% [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall profitability of the liquor sector remains high, with a gross profit margin of 81.53% and a net profit margin of 42.54% in Q1 2025, largely supported by leading companies [8]. - The market is currently facing a "volume and price decline" scenario, contrasting with the consumption upgrade seen in the previous five years [9][10]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the liquor index is 19.9 times, a significant drop from 70 times in February 2021, aligning with valuation levels from 2015 and 2018 [10][12]. Group 3: Economic Influences - The liquor industry is undergoing a cyclical downturn, influenced by broader economic factors such as the real estate market's decline, which has seen a drop in sales area from 1.79 billion square meters in 2021 to 970 million square meters in 2024, a decrease of over 45% [14]. - The decline in real estate prices and the shrinking asset base of middle-class families are expected to negatively impact personal liquor consumption [15]. - The demographic trends indicate a potential decline in the drinking population starting in 2028, which could further pressure demand [17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current cycle presents greater challenges for the liquor industry compared to previous downturns, with no clear new growth engines to drive recovery [20]. - While exploring international markets could provide growth opportunities, the cultural differences in drinking habits pose significant challenges [21]. - The liquor industry is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a more mature and potentially declining phase, with long-term growth rates likely to settle in the single digits [22].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 89.18 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.85 billion, up 5.44% year-on-year [1] - For Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 21.26 billion, a 2.53% increase year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 6.17% to 5.87 billion [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 36.94 billion, growing 6.05% year-on-year, with net profit at 14.86 billion, up 5.80% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 31.7 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, totaling 22.3 billion, with a payout ratio of 70% [1] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for the liquor segment in 2024 was 83.13 billion, an 8.74% increase, with Wuliangye liquor revenue at 67.88 billion, up 8.07% [3] - The average price per ton of liquor was 1.64 million, a 0.94% increase year-on-year [3] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 37.2%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points, primarily due to increased sales expenses [4] Cash Flow and Financing - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 33.94 billion, down 18.7% year-on-year, attributed to reduced cash receipts from sales and increased tax payments [5] - In Q1 2025, operating cash flow surged to 15.85 billion, a dramatic increase of 2970.3% year-on-year, driven by a higher cash collection ratio [5] - The company’s accounts receivable financing at the end of 2024 was 19.57 billion, an increase from the previous year [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company aims to consolidate and enhance its stable growth, focusing on brand value and market share improvement, aligning revenue growth with macroeconomic indicators [1][2] - The company continues to be the leading brand in the thousand-yuan price segment, with strong brand power and ongoing reforms expected to drive stable growth [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 89.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit of 31.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.44% [7] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 36.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and a net profit of 14.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.80% [5][7] - The company aims to maintain a steady growth trajectory in 2025, focusing on enhancing brand value and market share [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 93.76 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.1% [6] - Net profit forecast for 2025 is 33.28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.5% [6] - Earnings per share for 2025 is projected to be 8.57 yuan [6] - The gross profit margin is expected to be around 77.3% for 2025 [6] - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 20.0% for 2025 [6] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's liquor revenue was 67.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.07%, with a sales volume of 41,400 tons [7] - The average price per ton of liquor was 1.64 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.94% [7] - The company’s series liquor revenue reached 15.25 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.8% [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company remains the leading brand in the 1,000 yuan price segment, with strong brand power [7] - The company is focusing on product control and price stability, optimizing its distribution channels [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Buy" [5]. Core Views - The focus on the domestic demand sector is expected to increase due to tariff impacts, with potential financial improvements in sectors like dairy products. Despite unclear short-term demand recovery signals, the market generally believes that policies aimed at boosting domestic demand will eventually lead to improvements in the demand side, thereby enhancing the valuation space for the sector [1][13]. - The second quarter is anticipated to see sectors such as dairy, frozen foods, snacks, and liquor entering a low base period for financial reports, which may support a rebound in stock prices despite limited short-term demand improvement [1][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The food and beverage sector is experiencing heightened attention due to escalating tariff conflicts, particularly in dairy products, which may see financial improvements [1][13]. 2. Liquor Sector - Demand in the liquor sector remains subdued but aligns with industry expectations. Supply-side pressures are easing as manufacturers reduce payment demands on distributors. Notably, Moutai maintains stable operations, with improved sales dynamics following price adjustments [2][14]. 3. Dairy Sector - The dairy industry is entering a supply contraction phase, with significant operational pressures on farms. The average price of fresh milk has dropped to 3.07 CNY/kg, nearing cash cost levels. The market is closely monitoring the supply-demand balance, which is influenced by various factors, including policy measures aimed at stabilizing production capacity [3][15]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a left-side configuration strategy, advocating for investments in dairy and snack sectors as foundational holdings, with a focus on companies like Yili and Yanjinpuzi. It also recommends flexible trading in underperforming sectors with potential for recovery, such as Lihai Foods and Shede Liquor [4][44]. 5. Key Data Tracking - As of April 11, 2025, the valuation level of the food and beverage sector (PE TTM, excluding negative values) is 21 times, reflecting a 5.5% increase since the beginning of the year. The liquor index PE is 20 times, up 4.6%, while the beverage index PE is 23 times, up 6.6% [16][20]. 6. Company Earnings Forecasts - Key companies in the sector have varying earnings forecasts, with Moutai projected to achieve a net profit of 862.28 million CNY in 2024, while Wuliangye is expected to reach 331.73 million CNY [39][41]. 7. Important Company Announcements - Recent announcements include significant revenue declines for companies like Huangshanghuang and Juewei Foods, indicating challenges in the current market environment [37]. 8. Summary of Key Reports - The report includes various company briefings and annual report reviews, highlighting strategic directions and performance insights for companies like Moutai and Baidu Foods [43].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2024 年 12 月 19 日 签约客户可长按扫码阅读报告： 五粮液召开第二十八届 1218 共商共建共享大会，面对白酒产业的深度调整，公司 2025 年定位"营销执行提升年"，将经销商合理利润放在营销工作首位，目标制定 和经营节奏将充分结合经济环境、政策变化审慎决策。稳价战略坚定，战术动作灵 活，以推动品牌价值和市场份额双提升。 报告正文 直面行业调整，强化营销执行。 24年五粮液面对白酒产业深度调整的外部环境，围绕"抓动销、稳价格、提费效、转 作风"营销方针打好了形象提升、份额提升、市场拓展、提质增效、盈利提升五大攻坚战役。核心产品市场价格总体 稳定；1618、39度五粮液消费氛围浓厚；生肖龙酒等文创产品持续火热；浓香酒开瓶扫码同比均超过四成、宴席同 比均超过五成，表现出强劲势头。25年公司定位"营销执行提升年"，将经销商合理利润放在营销工作首位，在继续 优化渠道布局、加大消费市场培育、品牌宣传推广的基础上，着重强调行业责任担当，引领秩序治理和行业竞合发 展。 思路延续，推动品牌价值和市场份额双提升。 大会上总经理华涛提出，25年公司将在守好品质品牌之正的同时，更 加注重 ...