21世纪经济报道记者 余纪昕 近期，债券市场持续经历调整行情。 尽管在业内人士看来，当前"股债跷跷板"效应已有所减弱，债券与权益资产走势之间关联性下降，但整 体市场仍处于重整阶段。本周，10年期国债活跃券收益率自9月22日星期一的1.7850%起一路上扬，并 持续围绕1.8%这一关键点位窄幅波动。 一位国有大行金融市场部投资交易人士告诉21世纪经济报道记者，今年市场的整体逻辑与去年相比发生 了显著变化。"去年四季度时，即使没有特别的短期利好催化剂，彼时收益率仍不断'下台阶'；而今年 以来，投资交易机构对债市利空因素变得极为敏感，即便未出现明确的利空信号，市场也多次呈现震荡 调整格局。" 该人士指出，一方面，国内经济预期逐步企稳回暖；另一方面，美国所谓"对等关税"税率已在4月见 顶，这两方面因素共同为基本面预期构筑底部。关税政策落地后，全球投资风险偏好上升，国内投资者 对经济前景的预期同步改善，加之多个产业领域出现积极亮点，在这些因素的综合作用下，债券市场暂 时缺乏再次走牛的核心动力，现阶段转入震荡偏弱区间。 "支持性"货币政策立场 护航资金面整体平稳 近几个交易日内，利率债行情"小雨"连绵，收益率小幅上行。截 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant downward pressure, with a notable increase in yields, while the stock market is thriving, leading to a shift in investor sentiment and capital allocation [1][2][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - On August 22, the issuance of 30-year special government bonds reached 83 billion yuan, with a bid rate of 2.15%, but the subscription multiple was only 2.89 times, indicating weak market demand [1]. - The bond market has seen a decline since early August, particularly affecting long-term bond funds, with some funds experiencing daily net value drops exceeding 0.5% [1][6]. - The issuance results of the 30-year bonds heightened market concerns, as the issuance rate exceeded the secondary market rate of 2.075%, reflecting a lack of demand even for highly secure assets [6][7]. Group 2: Stock Market Influence - The A-share market is witnessing unprecedented growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,800 points, leading to a significant influx of capital into equities [1][2]. - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident, where a booming stock market results in a cooling bond market, as institutions prefer equities when expected returns are higher [2][4]. Group 3: Fund Performance - Different types of bond funds are showing varied performance; short-term bond funds remain stable, while ultra-long bond funds and interest rate bond funds have suffered significant losses [6][9]. - Mixed bond funds have performed well due to their limited equity exposure, effectively hedging against bond market declines [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The bond market's recovery may depend on the stock market's performance; if the A-share market remains strong, the bond market may continue to struggle [9][11]. - There is a potential for re-evaluation of bond investment opportunities as yields rise, with a key psychological threshold identified at a 1.80% yield for 10-year government bonds [11].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market and monetary policy strategies in the context of the current economic environment, particularly focusing on the implications of interest rate changes and credit strategies. Key Points and Arguments Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The central bank's monetary policy operations indicate a focus on stable growth, but uncertainties surrounding US-China tariff negotiations require ongoing attention. The logic of systematically converging the funding center remains to be validated, with unexpected cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates reflecting the current stable growth approach [1][2][3] - The bond market has not strongly anticipated the dual cuts, with bond yields not significantly declining. The probability of a systematic elevation of the funding center is low, especially if the 7-day funding rate remains around 1.55% [1][2][3] Interest Rate Dynamics - Short-term interest rates face challenges in declining, with potential fluctuations leaning towards strength. The pricing of long-term rates is not favorable, but capital gains can be pursued if funding conditions loosen. The lower limit for the 10-year government bond yield is estimated to be around 1.6% [3][9] - The current market logic is bullish, suggesting that immediate short-selling is not advisable. Continuous analysis of future trends is necessary, as increased risk appetite or better-than-expected domestic demand data could lead to bond price declines [3][10][11] Credit Strategy Recommendations - It is recommended to continue holding 2-3 year ordinary credit bonds as a base position, as there are still opportunities for interest rate arbitrage. Attention should be paid to government issuance terms and potential short-term fluctuations around tax periods and month-end [5][6] - For 4-5 year secondary capital bonds, the current value is less favorable compared to shorter maturities. It is suggested to wait for tighter funding conditions before purchasing, treating this position with a trading mindset [6][7] - For bonds with maturities of 4-5 years and perpetual bonds, it is advised to hold from a coupon perspective, with a focus on high-yield points or individual bonds, such as 6-8 year secondary capital bonds, while also considering liquid credit bonds to build a high-coupon base [8] Investment Portfolio Construction - The construction of investment portfolios should consider three aspects: aggressive strategies for capital gains, stable strategies for consistent returns, and interest rate-focused strategies. Recommendations include a mix of 2-3 year credit bonds, long-term local government bonds, and liquid high-rated credit bonds [12] - For capital gains, strategies should involve betting on funding loosening, with options to buy the most active bonds or select those with the best value [13] Market Dynamics and Future Considerations - The spread between the 20-year and 30-year special government bonds remains around zero due to liquidity preferences and market dynamics favoring local government bonds over long-term special government bonds [17][18] - The impact of newly issued government bonds on existing main bonds' liquidity and value is expected to be minimal, as the new issues are relatively small in scale [19][20] Specific Investment Suggestions - For trading, it is advisable to consider the 30-year special government bond and the newly issued 10-year bonds from the National Development Bank. Short-term floating rate bonds are also highlighted for their potential value post-LPR adjustments [21][22] Other Important Insights - The current market environment suggests a preference for active trading strategies, with a focus on liquidity and interest rate dynamics. Continuous monitoring of market conditions and timely adjustments to strategies are essential for optimizing returns [14][15][16]