Core Viewpoint - The recent performance decline of several well-known bond private equity funds is attributed to the volatility of Vanke bonds and the overall weakness in the bond market, prompting fund managers to enhance their management capabilities to remain competitive [1][5]. Group 1: Performance Decline of Bond Private Equity Funds - Many renowned bond private equity products have experienced significant declines, with a medium-sized bond private equity fund in Beijing seeing its net value drop for three consecutive weeks, resulting in negative returns over the past six months [3]. - A Shanghai-based bond private equity fund, established in May, has reported losses exceeding 2%, with a more than 5% decline in the last two weeks, contrasting sharply with the manager's previous stable performance [3]. Group 2: Impact of Vanke Bonds - The adjustment of Vanke bonds since late November has led to substantial declines, with some varieties dropping over 70%. On December 10, Vanke bonds saw a brief rebound, but by December 11, they fell again, with "21 Vanke 06" dropping over 18% and several others also experiencing declines exceeding 10% [5]. - The recent performance fluctuations of some bond private equity products are linked to the Vanke bond situation and the new public fund fee regulations, compounded by continuous net redemptions from public funds, exacerbating the performance decline of certain bond private equity funds [5]. Group 3: Challenges in Fixed Income Strategies - The fixed income strategy is currently under pressure, with the ten-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.9%, and the low-risk interest rate at historical lows, limiting the operational space for traditional bond strategies [7]. - The average yield of mid-to-long-term pure bond products this year has only slightly exceeded the risk-free rate, falling short of many investors' expectations for stable returns [7]. Group 4: Industry Response to Market Changes - Fund managers are advised to reassess their holdings, avoid excessive concentration, and enhance liquidity considerations while conducting stress tests. In a low-interest-rate environment, the yield expectations for pure bond products should be adjusted to avoid blindly pursuing credit downgrades [10]. - The industry is shifting from traditional pure bond strategies to multi-strategy products to diversify risks and enhance returns, incorporating liquid bond ETFs and trading strategies to create lower-volatility strategy combinations [10][11]. - The future competitiveness of fixed income institutions will largely depend on their ability to provide attractive, compounding "fixed income bases" in a low-interest environment and to effectively layer multiple assets and strategies on top of this base [11].

固收｜当资产荒遇上需求重塑——2026 年信用债年度策 略 20251210 Q&A 2026 年信用债市场的整体策略观点是什么？ 2026 年信用债市场将继续面临结构性资产荒的局面，但需求结构可能会因费 用新规的落地而发生重塑。预计不同品种的信用债将受到结构性影响。今年 （2025 年）一级市场净供给保持高位，科创债发行放量显著，民企净融资转 正，金融债净供给也维持高位。二级市场方面，信用利差收窄，中短端下沉策 略表现最佳。尽管出现了一些典型违约案例，如天安财险和万科展期事件，但 整体风险外溢可控。 对于明年的市场环境和品种选择有何判断？ 对于 2026 年的市场环境，我们对整体债券市场持中性偏空观点，预计利率中 枢将抬升。一季度可能是利率低点，十年国债收益率含税水平运行区间为 1.7%至 2.1%。在此背景下，信用债表现预计好于利率债。供需方面，城投债 摘要 2026 年债券市场展望中性偏空，预计利率中枢抬升，一季度或为利率 低点，十年国债收益率含税区间 1.7%-2.1%。信用债表现预计优于利 率债，需关注公募费率新规对信用债需求生态的影响。 产业债净供给预计保持高位，受益于企业盈利改善和资本开支需求， ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's policy attitude. New long positions can be established on dips, and mid - term bottom positions should continue to be held [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Disk Review - On Wednesday, all varieties of treasury bond futures weakened across the board, with the decline intensifying in the afternoon, and TL having the largest decline. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.31%. Open - market reverse repurchase was 21.33 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 9.72 billion yuan [1] 2. Important Information - Six departments issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption. The US PPI in September increased by 2.6% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.7% [2] 3. Market Judgment - The early - morning rebound of A - shares on this day had a certain suppressing effect on the bond market, but the afternoon decline of A - shares did not benefit the bond market. Rumors of the upcoming implementation of the new public - fund fee regulations, with redemption fees still applicable for institutional redemptions within 6 months and even rumors of large - scale redemptions of some funds, led to the intensified decline of the bond market in the afternoon. If the new regulations are implemented, the negative impact will be exhausted. After the futures market closed, the yield of spot bonds dropped significantly, indicating that there were buyers when the yield rose to a certain level. The T contract has filled the lower gap [3] 4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data - For TS2603, the price on November 26, 2025, was 102.382, down 0.04 from the previous day, and the contract position decreased by 1156 hands. For TF2603, the price was 105.785, down 0.185, and the contract position decreased by 1621 hands. For T2603, the price was 107.955, down 0.285, and the contract position decreased by 16292 hands. For TL2603, the price was 114.43, down 0.85, and the contract position increased by 4449 hands. Regarding the basis, the TS basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0033, the TF basis (CTD) decreased by 0.1056, the T basis (CTD) decreased by 0.1013, and the TL basis (CTD) increased by 0.1255. In terms of trading volume, the TS main - contract trading volume increased by 2913 hands, the TF main - contract trading volume decreased by 4983 hands, the T main - contract trading volume decreased by 5363 hands, and the TL main - contract trading volume increased by 15730 hands [4]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown signs of recovery, with various fixed-income products experiencing an increase in net value, particularly those with embedded options, indicating a favorable investment environment for fixed-income strategies [2][3][11]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Product Performance Review - Over the past month, the bond market has further recovered, with net values of fixed-income products rising. The performance ranking of products is as follows: - Option-embedded bond funds: 0.83% (previously 0.21%) - Medium to long-term bond funds: 0.35% (previously 0.12%) - Short-term bond funds: 0.22% (previously 0.12%) - High-grade interbank certificate index: 0.15% (unchanged) - Cash management products: 0.10% (unchanged) [3][9][10]. Bond Market Review - The bond market sentiment has improved, with mid to long-term bonds outperforming short-term bonds. The yield curve has slightly flattened, influenced by two main factors: 1. Economic headwinds have increased, with consumption and investment slowing down, which is favorable for the bond market. 2. The central bank has resumed bond purchases, signaling a more accommodative monetary policy, leading to a decline in bond market interest rates [11][12][18]. Market Outlook - **Short-term (1 month)**: - Interbank certificate rates are expected to stabilize and decline slightly. The 10-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.7% and 1.9%, with a focus on trading opportunities [11][31]. - **Medium-term (3-6 months)**: - Economic recovery expectations are likely to continue, with funds remaining relatively abundant, leading to a potential range-bound market for bonds. The 10-year government bond yield may face upward pressure but within a limited range [11][31]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - For investors needing liquidity management, it is advisable to maintain cash-like products and consider increasing allocations to stable low-volatility wealth management and short-term bond funds [41][42]. - For conservative investors, it is recommended to continue holding pure bond products, with the possibility of profit-taking if economic pressures increase and monetary easing expectations rise [43]. - For more aggressive investors, it is suggested to consider allocating to fixed-income plus products that include convertible bonds and equity assets, as liquidity is expected to remain relatively ample [45]. Regulatory Developments - Recent regulatory changes include the introduction of guidelines to promote the healthy development of pension wealth management and the asset management trust management measures, which aim to enhance the investment capabilities of institutions and improve the overall market structure [38][39].

Group 1 - The convertible bond market is experiencing fluctuations, with the China Securities Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index down by 0.58% as of November 18, 2025, and the convertible bond ETF (511380) down by 0.41% at a latest price of 13.6 yuan [2] - Year-to-date, the total issuance of bonds by securities firms has reached 1.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.34%, driven by a recovering capital market and low interest rates [2] - The issuance of 58 technology innovation bonds since May has totaled 789.7 billion yuan, with an average oversubscription rate of 3.8 times, indicating strong investor interest [2] Group 2 - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with government bond issuance decreasing and a balanced funding environment supported by the central bank [3] - The convertible bond market is projected to exhibit significant range-bound characteristics in 2026, influenced by rising expected returns from equity assets and the increasing probability of strong redemptions [3] - The latest size of the convertible bond ETF is 567.10 billion yuan, closely tracking the China Securities Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index, which reflects the overall performance of convertible and exchangeable bonds listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges [3]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core View - The report suggests paying attention to central bank policy operations, maintaining a mid - term optimistic view on the bond market, advising mid - term long positions to be held and empty positions to buy in batches on pullbacks [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Disk Review - On Friday, Treasury bond futures oscillated downward and closed down across the board. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.33%. Open - market reverse repurchase was 14.17 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 91.34 billion yuan, of which 70 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase had been renewed previously [1] 2. Important Information - China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year in October, while imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. China's foreign exchange reserves in October were 3.34334 trillion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 468 million US dollars; the gold reserves were 74.09 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces [2] 3. Market Judgment - The decline of Treasury bond futures intensified in the late trading today, possibly related to the rumor of the announcement of the public - offering fee new regulations over the weekend. If the new regulations lead to accelerated selling by institutions, the central bank can conduct bond purchases to hedge, and the impact on the market is expected to be less than that in September. In October, the export growth rate turned negative, and the export growth rates of South Korea and Vietnam also declined. It is necessary to observe whether external demand is trending weaker [3] 4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data - For TS2512, the price was 102.472 on 2025 - 11 - 07, down 0.022 from the previous day, and the contract position increased by 344 hands. For TF2512, the price was 105.92, down 0.04, and the contract position decreased by 1984 hands. For T2512, the price was 108.475, down 0.07, and the contract position decreased by 837 hands. For TL2512, the price was 116.03, down 0.1, and the contract position decreased by 593 hands. There were also corresponding changes in the basis and trading volume of each contract [4]

Core Insights - The bond fund products are experiencing significant redemptions, with at least 81 bond products facing large redemptions since the second half of 2025, particularly in October [1][2] - The shift in market preference has led to a decline in bond fund performance, while "fixed income+" and mixed products are gaining popularity [2][7] - The overall bond market is under pressure due to increased risk appetite for equities, resulting in a "strong stock, weak bond" market dynamic [1][3] Bond Market Performance - As of October 27, 2025, the average total return for short-term pure bond funds was only 0.03% for the past week and 0.20% for the past month, indicating poor performance [6] - The issuance of bond funds has significantly decreased, with only 19.52 billion units issued in October compared to 599.54 billion units in September [6][7] - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated, with a recent drop to 1.8%, reflecting a volatile market environment [3][6] Market Dynamics - The bond market is facing a lack of clear direction, with trading logic rapidly changing and overall profitability weaker than in the equity market [2][3] - The new public fund fee regulations are impacting the market, leading to increased competition among fund managers, particularly affecting smaller public funds [2][8] - The anticipated changes in redemption rules and performance benchmarks are expected to reshape the investment landscape for bond funds [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - This section is not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Q4 credit spreads may continue to fluctuate and adjust, with greater potential pressure on the long - end [7]. - It is recommended to control duration for credit bonds, and short - end sinking and carry strategies are preferable [7]. - For financial bonds, pay attention to participation opportunities in new - bond price discovery, and the trading difficulty of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds is increasing [7]. - For general credit bonds, use short - duration as a shield and coupon as a spear to find structural opportunities [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Q3 Review: Supply Weak, Credit Follow - up Adjustment, Short - end Superior 3.1.1 Primary Market - In 2025Q3, the issuance and net supply of traditional credit bonds decreased slightly. The issuance and net financing of industrial bonds decreased, while those of urban investment bonds increased. The issuance and net financing of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds decreased significantly, and the net financing of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds turned negative [15][20]. 3.1.2 Secondary Market - In Q3, credit bonds followed the adjustment of interest - rate bonds but did not over - adjust. The short - end performed better than the long - end. Yields generally increased, credit spreads at the 1 - year term narrowed, and those at the medium - and long - terms generally widened. Short - end rating spreads mostly widened, and medium - and long - end spreads narrowed. Term spreads generally widened, and the holding - period yield of the 1 - year term remained positive [25][28][36]. 3.2 How to Evaluate the Spread Pricing of Various Products after the New VAT Regulations? 3.2.1 Impact of ChinaBond Valuation on Spread Calculation - Since August 8, 2025, the restoration of VAT on the interest income of government bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds has different impacts on different institutions. The impact order is financial institutions' self - operation > public funds > other asset management products > qualified overseas investors [43]. - The compilation arrangement of ChinaBond bond valuation and yield curve during the transition period may affect the calculation results of credit spreads and term spreads [47]. 3.2.2 Credit Spreads - When new government - development bonds are issued, the credit spread center of general credit bonds may shift downward systematically, and the situation of financial bonds may be more complex. To eliminate the impact of VAT, adjustments can be made through the new - old bond spread of financial bonds [51][54]. 3.2.3 Term Spreads - When new financial bonds are issued, the term spread center of the corresponding new - issue term may increase in the short term and remain at a high level. To eliminate the impact of VAT, adjustments can be made through the new - old bond spread of financial bonds [57]. 3.3 Perspective of Institutional Behavior: Pay Attention to the Impact of Chip Switching on the Credit Bond Market 3.3.1 Public Funds - Due to the comparison of various asset classes and the new public fund fee regulations, the liability side of off - exchange bond funds faces significant challenges. The stock growth rate and proportion of bond - type funds have declined since July 2025, and funds may flow to bond ETFs, wealth management products, and special - account entrusted products. The demand structure of credit bonds may be reshaped [69][72]. 3.3.2 Wealth Management Products - Near the end - of - year regulatory deadline for net - value smoothing rectification, wealth management products face greater valuation fluctuations and may be more cautious in bond - allocation behavior. Although their liquidity management ability has been enhanced, the real liquidity of credit bond ETFs may not meet their needs. In the short term, the expansion of wealth management scale faces pressure, but in the long term, the new public fund fee regulations may be beneficial to the expansion of wealth management scale [5]. 3.3.3 Changes in Credit Bond Allocation Behavior of Various Institutions - Recently, the chip - switching feature of credit bonds is obvious. The buying power of public funds has weakened, while wealth management products have become a stabilizer for credit bonds. Insurance has stronger demand support, and rural commercial banks prefer general credit bonds. Long - term credit may face re - pricing [5]. 3.4 Q4 Outlook: Pressure Remains, Short - end as Shield and Coupon as Spear - Credit spreads may continue to fluctuate and adjust in Q4, with greater potential pressure on the long - end. It is recommended to control duration, and short - end sinking and carry strategies are preferable. For financial bonds, pay attention to new - bond price discovery opportunities, and be cautious about Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. For general credit bonds, look for structural opportunities in the primary market, urban investment bonds, high - grade private and perpetual bonds, and based on credit bond ETFs [7].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is currently undergoing an adjustment phase, with a notable shift in market logic compared to the previous year, leading to increased sensitivity to negative factors despite a lack of clear negative signals [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The yield on the 10-year government bond has risen from 1.7850% on September 22 to around 1.8%, indicating a narrow fluctuation around this key level [1]. - The overall market is in a restructuring phase, with the "stock-bond seesaw" effect diminishing, leading to a decreased correlation between bond and equity asset movements [1][4]. - Recent trading days have seen a slight increase in yields for both 10-year and 30-year government bonds, with the 10-year bond yield reaching 1.8190% and the 30-year bond at 2.1190% [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Domestic economic expectations are gradually stabilizing, while the peak of the "reciprocal tariff" rates in April has contributed to a more favorable investment outlook [1][3]. - The People's Bank of China has maintained a stable funding environment, with recent reverse repo operations indicating a net withdrawal of 170 billion yuan, despite slight increases in funding rates [2][3]. Group 3: Regulatory Impact - The new fund fee regulations released by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on September 5 have raised concerns among market participants, particularly regarding the impact on bond fund redemption fees [4][6]. - The new regulations encourage long-term holding, which has led to a decrease in the profitability of short-term bond funds, affecting market sentiment and trading behavior [4][6]. Group 4: Institutional Behavior - Recent data shows that funds remain the largest sellers in the bond market, while insurance institutions and banks are taking on the role of primary buyers [5][6]. - The market is experiencing a shift in trading dynamics, with large banks increasing their holdings of short-term government bonds, while the buying power of agricultural and commercial banks and insurance companies has weakened [6][8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain high volatility, with potential adjustments in yields, but significant upward movement beyond previous highs is unlikely [7][8]. - Key factors to watch include the potential for interest rate cuts, the limited influx of new funds, and seasonal influences that may affect bond supply and demand dynamics in the fourth quarter [8].