资 料 来 源 ： 招 商 银 行 研 究 院 回顾：债市进一步修复，产品净值均上涨 （一）固收产品收益回顾：净值均有上涨，固收+领先 作者：招商银行研究院 零售客群部 私人银行部 | | 本期要点摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 近１月 2025 年以来 | | | 固收产品收益 | 含权债基>中长期债基>短债基金>高 | 含权债基 > 高等级同业存单指基 > 短债基金> | | 回顾 | 等级同业存单指基>现金管理 | 现金管理 > 中长期债基 | | | 近一个月,债市行情进一步修复,一 | 1 月偏强震荡, 2 月-3 月中旬债市大幅回 | | | 是经济基本面逆风加大，二是央行重 | 调,4月初债市快速走强后回归震荡,5月下 | | 债市回顾 | 启购债,驱动债市利率下行,中长债 | 旬小幅回调，6月回归震荡，三季度回调，近 | | | 表现强于短债。 | 期小幅走强。 | | | 知》，31 日出台《资产管理信托管理办法（征求意见稿 ）》。 | 1.10 月 30 日国家金融监管总局出台《关于促进养老理财业务持续健康发展的通 | | 行业事件跟踪 | | 2.10 ...

据报道，今年以来，受益于资本市场回暖和低利率环境，券商发债规模大幅增长，截至11月12日累计发债达1.6万亿元，同比增长62.34%。多家头部券商发 行百亿元级债券，主要用于偿还债务和补充流动资金，以增强资本实力、支持重资本业务发展。同时，自5月债市'科技板'推出以来，券商积极响应，共发 行58只科创债，总规模达789.7亿元，投资者认购踊跃，平均超额认购3.8倍。券商还通过承销、做市等方式全面参与科创债市场建设，推动业务向全链条生 态拓展，提升综合服务能力与竞争力。 机构分析指出，债市或将继续维持震荡格局，政府债发行规模有所回落，资金面在央行持续呵护下保持均衡。近期债市缺乏明显主线下，短期市场交易逻辑 可能主要围绕股债跷跷板、公募费率新规等政策预期展开。在当前基本面边际转弱、央行呵护资金面宽松，但强调跨周期调节的情况下，债市仍"上有顶、 下有底"，短期可能维持横盘震荡。 中信建投表示，展望2026年，我们认为转债资产在权益资产催化与高强赎概率制约下，整体上可能依然呈现较为显著的区间震荡特征。一方面，在权益资产 预期回报率提升与转债自身稀缺性影响下，转债资产出现大幅回撤难度较大；而另一方面，受制于转债资产整体 ...

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core View - The report suggests paying attention to central bank policy operations, maintaining a mid - term optimistic view on the bond market, advising mid - term long positions to be held and empty positions to buy in batches on pullbacks [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Disk Review - On Friday, Treasury bond futures oscillated downward and closed down across the board. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.33%. Open - market reverse repurchase was 14.17 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 91.34 billion yuan, of which 70 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase had been renewed previously [1] 2. Important Information - China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year in October, while imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. China's foreign exchange reserves in October were 3.34334 trillion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 468 million US dollars; the gold reserves were 74.09 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces [2] 3. Market Judgment - The decline of Treasury bond futures intensified in the late trading today, possibly related to the rumor of the announcement of the public - offering fee new regulations over the weekend. If the new regulations lead to accelerated selling by institutions, the central bank can conduct bond purchases to hedge, and the impact on the market is expected to be less than that in September. In October, the export growth rate turned negative, and the export growth rates of South Korea and Vietnam also declined. It is necessary to observe whether external demand is trending weaker [3] 4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data - For TS2512, the price was 102.472 on 2025 - 11 - 07, down 0.022 from the previous day, and the contract position increased by 344 hands. For TF2512, the price was 105.92, down 0.04, and the contract position decreased by 1984 hands. For T2512, the price was 108.475, down 0.07, and the contract position decreased by 837 hands. For TL2512, the price was 116.03, down 0.1, and the contract position decreased by 593 hands. There were also corresponding changes in the basis and trading volume of each contract [4]

Core Insights - The bond fund products are experiencing significant redemptions, with at least 81 bond products facing large redemptions since the second half of 2025, particularly in October [1][2] - The shift in market preference has led to a decline in bond fund performance, while "fixed income+" and mixed products are gaining popularity [2][7] - The overall bond market is under pressure due to increased risk appetite for equities, resulting in a "strong stock, weak bond" market dynamic [1][3] Bond Market Performance - As of October 27, 2025, the average total return for short-term pure bond funds was only 0.03% for the past week and 0.20% for the past month, indicating poor performance [6] - The issuance of bond funds has significantly decreased, with only 19.52 billion units issued in October compared to 599.54 billion units in September [6][7] - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated, with a recent drop to 1.8%, reflecting a volatile market environment [3][6] Market Dynamics - The bond market is facing a lack of clear direction, with trading logic rapidly changing and overall profitability weaker than in the equity market [2][3] - The new public fund fee regulations are impacting the market, leading to increased competition among fund managers, particularly affecting smaller public funds [2][8] - The anticipated changes in redemption rules and performance benchmarks are expected to reshape the investment landscape for bond funds [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - This section is not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Q4 credit spreads may continue to fluctuate and adjust, with greater potential pressure on the long - end [7]. - It is recommended to control duration for credit bonds, and short - end sinking and carry strategies are preferable [7]. - For financial bonds, pay attention to participation opportunities in new - bond price discovery, and the trading difficulty of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds is increasing [7]. - For general credit bonds, use short - duration as a shield and coupon as a spear to find structural opportunities [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Q3 Review: Supply Weak, Credit Follow - up Adjustment, Short - end Superior 3.1.1 Primary Market - In 2025Q3, the issuance and net supply of traditional credit bonds decreased slightly. The issuance and net financing of industrial bonds decreased, while those of urban investment bonds increased. The issuance and net financing of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds decreased significantly, and the net financing of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds turned negative [15][20]. 3.1.2 Secondary Market - In Q3, credit bonds followed the adjustment of interest - rate bonds but did not over - adjust. The short - end performed better than the long - end. Yields generally increased, credit spreads at the 1 - year term narrowed, and those at the medium - and long - terms generally widened. Short - end rating spreads mostly widened, and medium - and long - end spreads narrowed. Term spreads generally widened, and the holding - period yield of the 1 - year term remained positive [25][28][36]. 3.2 How to Evaluate the Spread Pricing of Various Products after the New VAT Regulations? 3.2.1 Impact of ChinaBond Valuation on Spread Calculation - Since August 8, 2025, the restoration of VAT on the interest income of government bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds has different impacts on different institutions. The impact order is financial institutions' self - operation > public funds > other asset management products > qualified overseas investors [43]. - The compilation arrangement of ChinaBond bond valuation and yield curve during the transition period may affect the calculation results of credit spreads and term spreads [47]. 3.2.2 Credit Spreads - When new government - development bonds are issued, the credit spread center of general credit bonds may shift downward systematically, and the situation of financial bonds may be more complex. To eliminate the impact of VAT, adjustments can be made through the new - old bond spread of financial bonds [51][54]. 3.2.3 Term Spreads - When new financial bonds are issued, the term spread center of the corresponding new - issue term may increase in the short term and remain at a high level. To eliminate the impact of VAT, adjustments can be made through the new - old bond spread of financial bonds [57]. 3.3 Perspective of Institutional Behavior: Pay Attention to the Impact of Chip Switching on the Credit Bond Market 3.3.1 Public Funds - Due to the comparison of various asset classes and the new public fund fee regulations, the liability side of off - exchange bond funds faces significant challenges. The stock growth rate and proportion of bond - type funds have declined since July 2025, and funds may flow to bond ETFs, wealth management products, and special - account entrusted products. The demand structure of credit bonds may be reshaped [69][72]. 3.3.2 Wealth Management Products - Near the end - of - year regulatory deadline for net - value smoothing rectification, wealth management products face greater valuation fluctuations and may be more cautious in bond - allocation behavior. Although their liquidity management ability has been enhanced, the real liquidity of credit bond ETFs may not meet their needs. In the short term, the expansion of wealth management scale faces pressure, but in the long term, the new public fund fee regulations may be beneficial to the expansion of wealth management scale [5]. 3.3.3 Changes in Credit Bond Allocation Behavior of Various Institutions - Recently, the chip - switching feature of credit bonds is obvious. The buying power of public funds has weakened, while wealth management products have become a stabilizer for credit bonds. Insurance has stronger demand support, and rural commercial banks prefer general credit bonds. Long - term credit may face re - pricing [5]. 3.4 Q4 Outlook: Pressure Remains, Short - end as Shield and Coupon as Spear - Credit spreads may continue to fluctuate and adjust in Q4, with greater potential pressure on the long - end. It is recommended to control duration, and short - end sinking and carry strategies are preferable. For financial bonds, pay attention to new - bond price discovery opportunities, and be cautious about Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. For general credit bonds, look for structural opportunities in the primary market, urban investment bonds, high - grade private and perpetual bonds, and based on credit bond ETFs [7].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is currently undergoing an adjustment phase, with a notable shift in market logic compared to the previous year, leading to increased sensitivity to negative factors despite a lack of clear negative signals [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The yield on the 10-year government bond has risen from 1.7850% on September 22 to around 1.8%, indicating a narrow fluctuation around this key level [1]. - The overall market is in a restructuring phase, with the "stock-bond seesaw" effect diminishing, leading to a decreased correlation between bond and equity asset movements [1][4]. - Recent trading days have seen a slight increase in yields for both 10-year and 30-year government bonds, with the 10-year bond yield reaching 1.8190% and the 30-year bond at 2.1190% [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Domestic economic expectations are gradually stabilizing, while the peak of the "reciprocal tariff" rates in April has contributed to a more favorable investment outlook [1][3]. - The People's Bank of China has maintained a stable funding environment, with recent reverse repo operations indicating a net withdrawal of 170 billion yuan, despite slight increases in funding rates [2][3]. Group 3: Regulatory Impact - The new fund fee regulations released by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on September 5 have raised concerns among market participants, particularly regarding the impact on bond fund redemption fees [4][6]. - The new regulations encourage long-term holding, which has led to a decrease in the profitability of short-term bond funds, affecting market sentiment and trading behavior [4][6]. Group 4: Institutional Behavior - Recent data shows that funds remain the largest sellers in the bond market, while insurance institutions and banks are taking on the role of primary buyers [5][6]. - The market is experiencing a shift in trading dynamics, with large banks increasing their holdings of short-term government bonds, while the buying power of agricultural and commercial banks and insurance companies has weakened [6][8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain high volatility, with potential adjustments in yields, but significant upward movement beyond previous highs is unlikely [7][8]. - Key factors to watch include the potential for interest rate cuts, the limited influx of new funds, and seasonal influences that may affect bond supply and demand dynamics in the fourth quarter [8].