先给大家算笔直观的账，一看就知道利息缩水有多严重。大额存单起存门槛大多是20万，现在工行、建行这些国有大行的3个月期利率才0.9%，到期利息就 是200000×0.9%÷12×3=450元；就算是利率稍高的中小银行，比如珠海农商行3个月期利率1.35%，利息也才675元。而就在2024年，3个月期大额存单平均利 率还能达到1.8%以上，同样20万存3个月，利息能拿到900元，现在直接少了一半还多。 一年期产品也没好到哪去，国有大行普遍在1.2?.4%之间，交通银行北京地区的专项产品才1.4%，20万存一年利息最多2800元；中小银行里利率较高的山东 金乡农商行，一年期利率1.5%，利息也才3000元，搁以前随便就能拿到4500元左右。更让人无奈的是长期产品的"缺位"，以前大家抢着买的三年期大额存 单，现在多数银行直接停发，少数还在卖的利率也超不过2%，山东金乡农商行三年期利率1.75%，天津银行才2.05%，比部分一年期产品高不了多少。五年 期产品更夸张，六大国有银行早就集体下架，整个市场几乎找不到踪迹，曾经3.5%以上的高利率，现在想都不敢想。 不少老百姓吐槽："想锁长期高息没门路，存短期又没多少利息，银行 ...

回望2025年 市场在期待与震荡中前行 我们见证了结构性行情的深化 也亲历了投资理念的悄然革新 你的投资画卷由哪些色彩勾勒？ 基金君提炼了 2025年度投资关键词 AI理财搭子 养老主理人 本金基础，波动不基础 重返 4000点 A股慢牛 新消费热 科技狂飙 黄金牛 ETF 崛起 "登"股投资 它们既是市场的注脚 也是我们每个人理财行为的缩影 行为篇 ·我们的理财新姿态 AI理财搭子 稳健投资者达成"保本为核心、接受合理波 动换收益"的共识，带动"固收+"、中短债 基金走俏，追求确定性与弹性的平衡。 市场篇·我们身处的浪潮 重返4000点 多重利好推动上证指数站上 4000 点，这不 仅是整数关口，更是市场信心的象征，标志 A 股进入新的震荡平衡区间。 上证指数 A 股慢牛 AI 深度嵌入投资流程,凭借大模型做市场 分析、基金诊断，还能自动提醒定投止盈, 助力理性决策，让投资省心又有数。 乔老主理人 年轻人主动规划个人养老金，借助养老目标 基金（FOF）、商业养老保险等工具构建长 期资产组合,自主为30年后的生活负责。 新消费热 消费投资转向"情绪价值"与"质价比"，聚 焦国产科技潮玩、黄金珠宝、本土新品牌, ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the pitfalls of having an excessive number of funds in an investment portfolio, likening it to running a supermarket, which can lead to false diversification and management difficulties [6][17]. Group 1: Reasons for Excessive Fund Holdings - Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) drives investors to buy into new concepts and themes, leading to an overwhelming number of funds [9]. - Misunderstanding the principle of diversification results in investors believing that holding more funds inherently reduces risk [11]. - Decision paralysis occurs when investors are overwhelmed by choices, leading them to buy multiple funds without a clear strategy [13]. Group 2: Problems with Excessive Fund Holdings - False Diversification: Holding many funds does not guarantee risk diversification, as many funds may share the same underlying assets [18]. - Management Overload: Monitoring numerous funds can be time-consuming and impractical, making it difficult to analyze performance and make informed decisions [22]. Group 3: Steps to Optimize Fund Holdings - Step 1: Define a portfolio structure based on individual risk tolerance and investment goals, including allocations to different types of funds [27][30][34]. - Step 2: Tag each fund according to its category to gain clarity on the portfolio composition [37]. - Step 3: Consolidate similar funds by evaluating them based on performance, drawdown history, fund size, fee structure, and manager experience [41][45][49]. Group 4: Tools and Recommendations - The article suggests using fund comparison tools available in various apps to facilitate the selection process and streamline decision-making [50]. - It introduces a three-part asset allocation tool that helps investors avoid common pitfalls by providing a structured framework for fund selection and management [65][66].

Group 1: Wealth Management Scale - The wealth management scale increased by CNY 960 billion to CNY 33.61 trillion from December 1-5, indicating a seasonal rebound[1] - The scale is expected to face pressure as December is a traditional quarter-end month, with weekly reductions anticipated starting from the second week of December[1] - Historical data suggests that the weekly decline in wealth management scale could reach CNY 3,000-4,000 billion by the last week of December[1] Group 2: Leverage Rates - The average leverage level in the interbank system rose from 107.13% to 107.37% during the week[2] - Exchange leverage levels slightly decreased from 123.01% to 122.99%, showing a downward trend throughout the week[2] - Non-bank institutions showed insufficient motivation to increase leverage, with their average leverage level declining from 112.19% to 112.10%[2] Group 3: Bond Fund Duration - The duration of interest rate-based medium and long-term bond funds compressed from 3.49 years to 3.36 years, marking a continuous decline over five weeks[3] - In contrast, the duration of credit-based medium and long-term bond funds increased from 2.13 years to 2.20 years[3] - Short and medium-term bond funds saw their durations extend, with average durations rising from 1.38 years to 1.42 years for medium-term funds and from 0.76 years to 0.79 years for short-term funds[3] Group 4: Risk Alerts - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy alterations[4]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) are disappearing from banks, leading to a significant shift in savings habits among depositors as interest rates decline sharply [1][3][5]. Group 1: Product Supply - Major state-owned banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank, have stopped selling 5-year large-denomination CDs [3]. - Some banks have also ceased offering 3-year large-denomination CDs, with no clear timeline for their return [3]. - Local banks are following suit, with announcements of the cancellation of 5-year fixed-term deposits [3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Decline - The interest rates for large-denomination CDs have dropped to the "1" range, with 3-year CDs at 1.55% for major banks [5]. - In contrast, prior to 2020, 3-year and 5-year CDs had yields above 3%, with some smaller banks offering rates close to 4% [5]. - The traditional practice of higher interest rates for larger deposit amounts has been disrupted, as the rates for different deposit amounts are now the same [5]. Group 3: Banking Strategy - The collective withdrawal of long-term large-denomination CDs is a response to the ongoing pressure on banks' net interest margins, which fell to 1.42% by Q3 2025 [7]. - Banks aim to lower liability costs and stabilize net interest margins by reducing the supply of long-term deposits [7]. - The current low net interest margin environment compels banks to avoid high-cost long-term deposits to maintain profitability [7]. Group 4: Shift in Depositor Behavior - With the discontinuation of long-term large-denomination CDs, depositors are seeking alternative investment products, such as savings insurance, government bonds, or structured deposits [9]. - However, these alternatives come with their own limitations, such as lower liquidity for savings insurance and limited issuance for government bonds [9]. - A survey indicates an increase in residents inclined to invest more, rising by 5.6 percentage points to 18.5% [9]. Group 5: New Investment Preferences - Non-principal guaranteed bank wealth management products have become a preferred investment method among residents, with the market size reaching 32.13 trillion yuan, a 9.42% year-on-year increase [11]. - Financial advisors are recommending a diversified asset allocation strategy to improve returns and liquidity, moving away from excessive reliance on long-term deposits [11]. - Low-risk bank wealth management products are suggested as alternatives that may offer better returns than traditional deposits [11]. Group 6: Future Trends - The banking sector is expected to shift towards shorter-term products, emphasizing flexibility and a diverse range of financial products [13]. - Banks need to enhance their wealth management capabilities to maintain customer relationships and ensure stable returns [13]. - Depositors are encouraged to prioritize liquidity in their investments during a declining interest rate environment, allowing for better opportunities in the future [13].

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry in China is entering a critical phase of deepening reforms and enhancing quality and efficiency, aiming for high-quality development to meet national strategies and public expectations [1] Group 1: Industry Developments - The Beijing Securities Regulatory Bureau, in collaboration with the Beijing Securities Association and over 40 public fund management firms, launched a series of activities focused on high-quality development in the public fund sector, themed "New Era, New Fund, New Value" [1] - The initiative aims to enhance investor education and protection, promote the transformation and upgrading of the public fund industry, and improve its ability to serve the real economy [1] Group 2: Company Innovations and Strategies - Pengyang Fund has established itself as a rising force in the domestic public fund market, achieving a total management scale exceeding 200 billion yuan by the end of September 2025, driven by innovation embedded in its business development [1][2] - The company has launched the first short-term bond fund in the market in 2017 and has expanded into "fixed income plus" products to cater to shifting investor risk preferences [2] - In the equity business, Pengyang Fund has aligned its product offerings with national strategies and market demands, introducing investment tools focused on digital economy, advanced manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and consumption [3] - The company has developed various index products, including the first quality factor smart index fund and the first digital economy theme index ETF, responding to the passive investment trend [3] - The "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" released in May 2025 serves as a guiding document for future product innovation and strategic direction [4] - Pengyang Fund plans to enhance its active investment management capabilities and develop more actively managed equity funds with clear investment styles and stable long-term returns [4]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple public fund institutions have implemented purchase limits or suspended subscriptions for low-risk products ahead of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, indicating a proactive approach to managing liquidity risks and protecting existing investors' returns [1][2][3] Group 1: Fund Management Actions - Fund managers, including Invesco Great Wall Fund and Yinhua Fund, have announced limits on large subscriptions for various low-risk funds starting from September 29, with plans to resume subscriptions on October 9 [2] - As of September 29, 3,111 funds implemented purchase limits, an increase from 2,950 funds on August 29, indicating a growing trend in managing fund inflows [2] Group 2: Rationale Behind Limitations - The primary reason for the pre-holiday purchase limits is to mitigate risks associated with asset trading during holidays and to manage frequent capital fluctuations, ensuring liquidity safety and fair returns for investors [4][5] - Analysts suggest that the timing of these limits is crucial, as holidays typically see peaks in fund inflows and outflows, which can disrupt fund operations if not managed properly [4][5] Group 3: Investor Guidance - Investors are advised to pay attention to fund limit announcements and plan their subscription and redemption strategies accordingly to avoid missing opportunities due to purchase limits [6]

Core Viewpoint - Many fund companies are adjusting their subscription policies for certain products ahead of the upcoming double holiday, with a focus on limiting subscriptions for low-risk funds [1][2][3] Group 1: Subscription Policy Adjustments - Multiple fund companies, including Southern Fund, Huatai-PB Fund, and Huitianfu Fund, announced subscription limits for various products, primarily targeting low-risk funds such as bond and money market funds [1][2] - Subscription limits will generally take effect on September 29 and will be lifted on October 9, allowing for normal subscriptions to resume [1][3] - Specific limits include a cap of 50 million yuan for individual accounts and a daily subscription limit of 1,000 yuan for certain equity funds [3][5] Group 2: Rationale Behind Limitations - The adjustments are aimed at managing fund inflows during peak periods before holidays, which can lead to significant fluctuations in fund sizes and impact existing investors' returns [3][4] - Analysts suggest that limiting subscriptions helps to stabilize fund operations and protect the interests of existing fund holders, preventing dilution of shares for long-term investors [3][4] Group 3: Types of Affected Funds - The subscription limits primarily affect low-risk products, including money market funds, short-term bond funds, and index funds based on interbank certificates of deposit [3][5] - Some equity funds are also implementing subscription limits, which is less common compared to previous years where primarily low-risk products were restricted [5][6] Group 4: Market Context and Investor Behavior - The equity market has shown signs of recovery, leading to a shift in investor preference towards stock funds, but there remains a strong demand for low-risk products during the holiday period [6] - Investors are advised to prepare for potential large inflows and outflows around the holiday, which could impact fund managers' asset allocation decisions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The low interest rate environment poses challenges for traditional investment products, prompting investors to seek alternatives that balance safety, liquidity, and returns [5][6][7]. Group 1: Low Interest Rate Environment - Major banks have collectively lowered deposit rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates dropping below 1%, leading to a search for "deposit alternatives" among investors [5][6]. - The low interest rate trend is expected to persist, affecting the returns of traditional stable products like bank deposits and money market funds [6][7]. - Investors are advised to diversify their asset allocation to balance risk and return, utilizing strategies like "fixed income plus" to enhance yields [6][9]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - A diversified strategy is essential, focusing on high-quality credit bonds and interest rate bonds as core assets, complemented by equities and convertible bonds for yield enhancement [6][9]. - Investors should consider low-volatility fixed income products, which typically have a maximum drawdown of less than 2%, making them suitable for short-term idle funds [7][8]. - The use of AI and quantitative tools is recommended to improve risk management and enhance investment flexibility in a low interest rate environment [6][9]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - In an "asset scarcity" environment, investors should prioritize safety, yield, and liquidity through diversified and dynamic asset allocation [9][10]. - A balanced portfolio should include stocks, bonds, and commodities, utilizing strategies like risk parity and dynamic balancing to optimize risk-return profiles [9][10]. - High-quality, stable dividend-paying stocks are attractive in a low interest rate environment, while growth stocks should be selectively included for potential higher returns [10][11]. Group 4: Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is currently experiencing increased volatility, with a need for investors to balance safety margins and yield flexibility [11][17]. - The outlook for the bond market is neutral, with short-term assets showing higher certainty and long-term assets gradually revealing comparative advantages [17]. - Credit risk in the bond market is expected to decrease, providing opportunities for investment in high-rated credit bonds [11][17].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant downward pressure, with a notable increase in yields, while the stock market is thriving, leading to a shift in investor sentiment and capital allocation [1][2][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - On August 22, the issuance of 30-year special government bonds reached 83 billion yuan, with a bid rate of 2.15%, but the subscription multiple was only 2.89 times, indicating weak market demand [1]. - The bond market has seen a decline since early August, particularly affecting long-term bond funds, with some funds experiencing daily net value drops exceeding 0.5% [1][6]. - The issuance results of the 30-year bonds heightened market concerns, as the issuance rate exceeded the secondary market rate of 2.075%, reflecting a lack of demand even for highly secure assets [6][7]. Group 2: Stock Market Influence - The A-share market is witnessing unprecedented growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,800 points, leading to a significant influx of capital into equities [1][2]. - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident, where a booming stock market results in a cooling bond market, as institutions prefer equities when expected returns are higher [2][4]. Group 3: Fund Performance - Different types of bond funds are showing varied performance; short-term bond funds remain stable, while ultra-long bond funds and interest rate bond funds have suffered significant losses [6][9]. - Mixed bond funds have performed well due to their limited equity exposure, effectively hedging against bond market declines [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The bond market's recovery may depend on the stock market's performance; if the A-share market remains strong, the bond market may continue to struggle [9][11]. - There is a potential for re-evaluation of bond investment opportunities as yields rise, with a key psychological threshold identified at a 1.80% yield for 10-year government bonds [11].