公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 因为AI需求超火热，全年业绩上看3.7兆元的台积电，近期传出日本熊本厂（JASM）产能利用率低 迷、亏损无法止血的消息。本刊调查，身为掌舵者的台积电董事长魏哲家，要求内部规划全球产能大 调整，熊本二厂将从原本计划的6纳米，直攻生产2纳米，同时台积电也淡出成熟制程，全面空出旧厂 升级至先进制程。 "目前AI独强，台积电想扩产却地不够用，CC（魏哲家）决定对全球产能进行大 调整，打造最佳战力。"知情人士透露。 上 周 一 （ 8 日 ） ， 美 国 总 统 川 普 宣 布 ， 在 符 合 其 国 家 安 全 条 件 下 ， 允 许 全 球 AI 芯 片 龙 头 英 伟 达 （Nvidia）向中国出口H200芯片，其中"25%的金额将支付给美国，相同原则也将适用于超微、英特 尔等美国企业。"消息一出，立刻激励英伟达股价，就连台积电ADR也跟着大涨。 AI订单超火热，不仅英伟达创办人黄仁勋亲自来台找台积电董事长魏哲家追产能，包括超微、谷歌、 博通等AI芯片挑战者，也频频扩大对台积电下单。不过近来却有件大事，让魏哲家头疼，就是原本各 界看好最快亏转盈的日本熊本厂（JASM ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is considering advancing its chip production technology at its second factory in Japan to meet the demand for AI-related products, which may lead to construction delays and design changes [3][4]. Group 1: Factory Development - TSMC's second factory in Kumamoto, Japan, which began construction in late October, is now contemplating a shift to 4nm process technology, moving away from the initially planned 6nm and 7nm chips [3]. - The construction of the Kumamoto factory has reportedly been paused, with heavy machinery cleared from the site by early December [3]. - TSMC has informed suppliers that it will not add equipment to its existing factory in Kumamoto until at least 2026, as demand for 6nm and 7nm chips has decreased [4]. Group 2: Market Demand and Technology Shift - The demand for 6nm and 7nm chips has declined, impacting TSMC's production capacity utilization at its main facility in Taichung, Taiwan [4]. - TSMC has a history of adjusting its construction plans based on market demand, as seen with its facility in Kaohsiung, which shifted from mature processes to advanced 2nm technology [4]. - TSMC is also considering introducing advanced chip packaging technology in Japan, which is crucial for AI chip manufacturing [5]. Group 3: Partnerships and Support - TSMC's projects in Japan are supported by companies such as Sony Semiconductor Solutions, Denso, and Toyota [5].

Core Insights - TSMC's factory in Kumamoto, Japan, has commenced production and plans for a third factory are underway, with significant investments and government support involved [2][3][6]. Group 1: TSMC's Expansion in Japan - TSMC's first factory in Kumamoto is set to begin mass production by the end of 2024, while the second factory's construction has started in October 2023, with an investment of approximately $13.9 billion [2][3]. - The second factory is expected to produce more advanced 6nm chips and is scheduled to start production by December 2027, although full-scale production may be delayed based on demand [3]. - The total investment for both factories in Kumamoto amounts to $22.5 billion, with the Japanese government providing subsidies up to ¥1.2 trillion [3]. Group 2: Government Subsidies and Financial Support - TSMC has received approximately NT$147 billion (around $4.7 billion) in subsidies from various governments, including those in the U.S., Japan, Germany, and China, over the past two years [5][6]. - In the third quarter of this year, TSMC received NT$4.77 billion in subsidies, bringing the total for the first three quarters of 2025 to approximately NT$71.9 billion [5]. - The financial aid is primarily allocated for purchasing property, facilities, and equipment, as well as covering operational costs related to overseas production bases [6].

Core Viewpoint - United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) is exploring the feasibility of entering advanced chip production, specifically targeting 6nm technology, to enhance its growth potential in a market dominated by TSMC, Samsung, and Intel [1][2]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Developments - UMC is assessing future growth drivers, including the potential production of 6nm chips suitable for advanced connectivity applications and AI accelerators [1]. - The company is considering expanding its collaboration with Intel in 12nm chip production, potentially incorporating 6nm technology into this partnership [1][2]. - UMC's CFO indicated that substantial progress in advanced manufacturing technology will depend on partnerships to alleviate financial burdens [2]. Group 2: Market Position and Competition - UMC is currently the fourth largest chip foundry globally, with a market share of 4.7%, following TSMC, Samsung, and SMIC [3][4]. - As of Q1 2025, UMC's revenue decreased by 5.8%, reflecting competitive pressures from local Chinese manufacturers and the rise of SMIC, which has overtaken UMC to become the third largest foundry [2][3]. - The global foundry market is highly concentrated, with the top five companies accounting for 90.2% of the market share [3]. Group 3: Financial Considerations and Challenges - Entering the 6nm production space may require significant capital investment, estimated at around $5 billion, which poses a challenge for UMC [7]. - UMC's capital expenditure for the current year is projected to be $1.8 billion, significantly lower than SMIC's ongoing expenditure of over $7 billion [7]. - The company is exploring a "light asset" model to share the financial burden of new technology investments with partners [7]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - By 2030, mainland China is expected to lead global semiconductor foundry capacity, potentially holding 30% of the market, which adds competitive pressure on UMC [5]. - The demand for mature semiconductor products is rebounding slower than expected, prompting UMC to seek new growth opportunities [7]. - The transition to advanced chip production is complicated by the need for cutting-edge equipment, such as EUV lithography machines, which are costly and may impact production quality if older technologies are used [8].