宏观日报 | 2026-02-11 关注AI上游供需 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）工信部等五部门发布《关于加强信息通信业能力建设支撑低空基础设施发展的实施意见》。其中提 到，提升产业供给能力。积极推进5G-A产业发展，进一步升级完善现有地面基站设施功能，加快通感融合等技术 产业成熟，逐步降低设备成本。加强低空装备与低空信息通信的融合创新与设备研发，推进5G/5G RedCap模组与 低空航空器的适配验证。探索低空通信、导航、监视功能融合模组研发，加速技术和产业成熟。2）周二，全球最 大的芯片代工企业台积电公布了最新的月度营收报告。数据显示，台积电1月营收环比增长近20%，同比增长近40%。 这表明，全球对人工智能（AI）芯片的需求仍然强劲，AI热潮仍在持续。尽管存在AI泡沫担忧，但全球科技巨头 并未减少芯片订单。具体来看，台积电1月营收为4012.6亿元台币（约合127.1亿美元），同比增长36.8%，较2025年 12月增长19.8%。这是该公司史上最强单月营收，也是其月度营收首次突破4000亿元台币大关。 服务行业：1）央行发布2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告。继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 据最近报道，其 2nm GAA 工艺的良率已达到 50%，这表明虽然还有改进空间，但三星可以达到能 够与台积电相提并论的阶段。由于后者面临生产问题，这家韩国代工厂的机会已经成熟，最新报告称 三星正关注 2nm GAA 订单 130% 的增长。特斯拉已经是该技术的知名客户，据此前报道，这家电 动汽车制造商已签署了一份价值 165 亿美元的合同。 分析师预测，三星 2nm GAA 芯片订单精确的 130% 增长数字是"获得客户支持信心的体现"。 虽然 2nm GAA 工艺成功的关键仍然是健康的良率和稳定的量产，但《电子时报》（DigiTimes）报 道称，三星正在采取激进举措为其下一代光刻技术争取订单。随着 Exynos 2600 已经证明良率有所 稳定，报告指出三星现在的重点是 AI 芯片。韩国分析师将公司给出的 130% 这一精确数字解读为锁 定客户信心的迹象。 END 今天是《半导体行业观察》为您分享的第 4311 期内容，欢迎关注。 推荐阅读 另一个迹象是该公司位于美国的泰勒（Taylor）工厂，该工厂最初是为 4nm 生产设计的。然而，三 星可能希望在削减 ...

IT之家 2 月 5 日消息，据路透社报道，台积电首席执行官魏哲家今日表示，台积电计划在日本南部熊本 县量产先进的 3 纳米芯片。据当地媒体《读卖新闻》此前报道，这笔投资规模达 170 亿美元（IT之家 注：现汇率约合 1181.53 亿元人民币），旨在满足人工智能芯片飙升的市场需求。 台积电在 1 月份的财报电话会议上透露，其日本第二座晶圆厂已动工建设，"投产工艺与产能爬坡进度 将根据客户需求与市场行情确定"。 日本政府同时也在大力补贴本土芯片代工企业瑞萨 （Rapidus），该企业将在北海道生产先进制程芯片。据 《读卖新闻》报道，日本政府认定两家企业生产的芯片 应用场景不同，不存在同业竞争关系。 作为全球最大的芯片代工厂，同时也是英伟达等企业人工智能芯片的核心供应商，台积电目前最先进的 芯片均在中国台湾地区生产。该公司此前针对日本的建厂规划，仅聚焦于工艺相对落后的芯片技术。 这一官宣让日本跻身全球高端 3 纳米芯片的最新生产地行列。3 纳米芯片广泛应用于高性能计算与人工 智能服务器领域。台积电还计划于 2027 年，在其美国亚利桑那州第二座晶圆厂投产该工艺芯片。 作为亚洲市值最高的上市公司，人工智能行业的 ...

继苹果之后，英伟达也计划将部分芯片制造业务转向英特尔代工。英伟达预计在2028年推出的Feynman 架构平台将与英特尔合作，这是美国科技巨头在特朗普政府推动"美国制造"目标下调整供应链策略的最 新案例。 据DIGITIMES周三报道，供应链人士透露，英伟达将在与英特尔的合作中采用"量少、低阶、非核 心"的合作策略。GPU核心芯片仍由台积电代工，而I/O芯片则部分采用英特尔18A或预定2028年量产的 14A制程，最后由英特尔EMIB进行先进封装。按先进封装比重计算，英特尔最高约占25%，台积电约 占75%。 这一转变反映出美国科技企业在政治压力、关税威胁和供应链韧性考量下，不得不从高度集中于台积电 的模式转向"多源供应、分散风险"的新策略。除英伟达和苹果外，谷歌、微软、AWS、高通、博通、 超微和特斯拉等企业也在与英特尔洽谈合作。 尽管部分订单分流至英特尔，但业界认为这对台积电"利远大于弊"，有助于降低垄断疑虑、释放政治压 力，同时台积电仍有信心稳固高阶芯片代工大单。 台积电三层战略应对客户分流 目前观察，苹果、英伟达都以代工风险最低的产品渐进式调整。与英特尔洽谈合作的还有谷歌、微软、 AWS、高通、博通、 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's recent financial report has provided strong validation for the AI industry, showcasing significant growth and robust capital expenditure plans that signal future demand for chip manufacturing [5][8]. Financial Performance - TSMC's Q4 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with revenue growth for eight consecutive quarters and a gross margin surpassing 60%, comparable to software giants [5][12]. - The company projected capital expenditures of $52 billion to $56 billion for 2026, a substantial increase from $40.9 billion in 2025, indicating confidence in future orders from clients like NVIDIA and AMD [8][27]. Market Dynamics - TSMC's dominance is attributed to its advanced 3nm process technology, which accounted for 28% of revenue in Q4, driving a 20% increase in average wafer prices over two years [12][16]. - The demand for AI computing chips has surged, leading to a shortage of 3nm capacity, with reports indicating that TSMC has stopped accepting new orders for this process due to full capacity bookings [16][24]. Competitive Landscape - TSMC's competitors, particularly Samsung and Intel, have struggled to keep pace with its advancements in process technology, allowing TSMC to maintain a significant competitive edge [16][19]. - The advanced packaging technology, CoWoS, has become critical for AI chips, with TSMC holding a dominant position in this area, further solidifying its market leadership [17][20]. Client Relationships - TSMC's collaboration with NVIDIA has evolved from design to system-level integration, with NVIDIA expected to surpass Apple as TSMC's largest client by 2026 [22][24]. - The company has successfully diversified its client base, reducing reliance on any single customer, which is crucial for sustaining growth in advanced process technologies [23][26]. Future Outlook - TSMC's capital expenditure plans reflect a strong forecast for the semiconductor industry, with anticipated revenue growth rates of 25% from 2024 to 2029, driven by increasing demand for advanced chips [27].

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.08%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.31%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.61% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX down by 0.25%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.01%, France's CAC 40 down by 0.56%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down by 0.32% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.35% to $59.99 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 1.30% to $64.59 per barrel [3][4] Credit Market Insights - The global credit market is experiencing its hottest period in 19 years, prompting warnings from major investment firms like Aberdeen and Pimco about potential corrections in both credit and equity markets [5] - The current hot credit market may lead to widening credit spreads, resulting in a drop in corporate bond prices and a reassessment of risk assets [5] Bond Market Trends - The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching a record low in volatility, with a median weekly range of less than 10 basis points for five consecutive weeks, raising concerns among investors about potential sell-offs [6] Commodity Market Developments - Copper prices have fallen below $13,000 per ton, with Goldman Sachs warning of a potential 15% decline in prices this year due to revised demand forecasts [7] - Mark Mobius, a prominent investor, stated that he would only consider buying gold if prices drop by 20%, citing potential dollar strength as a pressure point for gold prices [8] Semiconductor Industry Outlook - Storage chip stocks are seeing pre-market gains, with Micron Technology and SanDisk up over 5%, driven by strong AI demand and expectations of a "super cycle" in the storage industry lasting until at least 2027 [9][10] - TSMC plans to increase its investment in the US to meet rising AI chip demand, with capital expenditures expected to rise significantly in the coming years [10] M&A Activity - JPMorgan is expanding its investment banking team in Europe, anticipating a record year for mergers and acquisitions in 2026 due to favorable market conditions [11] - Coterra Energy is in talks to merge with Devon Energy, which could result in one of the largest oil and gas deals in recent years [13] Streaming Industry Developments - Netflix has secured global streaming rights for Sony films in a deal valued at approximately $7 billion, extending their partnership and enhancing Netflix's content library [12]

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.08%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.31%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.61% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX down by 0.25%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.01%, France's CAC 40 down by 0.56%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down by 0.32% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.35% to $59.99 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 1.30% to $64.59 per barrel [3][4] Credit Market Insights - The global credit market is experiencing its hottest period in 19 years, prompting warnings from major investment firms like Aberdeen and Pimco about potential corrections in both credit spreads and equity valuations [5] Bond Market Trends - The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching a record low in volatility, with a median weekly range of less than 10 basis points for five consecutive weeks, raising concerns among bond market investors about potential sell-offs [6] Commodity Market Developments - Copper prices have fallen below $13,000 per ton, with Goldman Sachs warning of a potential 15% decline in prices this year due to revised demand forecasts from Nvidia [7] - Mark Mobius, a prominent investor, has stated he will only consider buying gold if prices drop by 20%, citing potential dollar strength as a pressure point for gold prices [8] Semiconductor Industry Outlook - Storage chip stocks are experiencing a pre-market surge, with Micron Technology and SanDisk both rising over 5%, driven by strong AI demand and expectations of a "super cycle" in the storage industry lasting until at least 2027 [9][10] - TSMC plans to increase its investment in the US to meet AI chip demand, with capital expenditures expected to rise significantly in the coming years [10] M&A Activity - JPMorgan is expanding its investment banking team in Europe, anticipating a record year for mergers and acquisitions in 2026 due to favorable market conditions [11] - Coterra Energy is in talks to merge with Devon Energy, which could lead to one of the largest oil and gas transactions in recent years [12] Streaming Industry Developments - Netflix has secured global streaming rights for Sony films in a deal valued at approximately $7 billion, expanding its content library significantly [13]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is accelerating its expansion plans in Arizona, USA, driven by a strong financial report and a recent trade agreement between the US and Taiwan, with an increased investment commitment to meet the rising demand for AI chips [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Plans - TSMC has committed to invest $165 billion in the US to support the government's initiative to rebuild domestic chip manufacturing [1]. - The company plans to increase its investment in Arizona further, with CFO Emily Tan expressing confidence in the AI trend as a reason for the capital expenditure increase [1][2]. - TSMC's capital expenditure is projected to rise significantly, with expectations for 2026 to reach between $52 billion and $56 billion, up from $40.9 billion in 2025, exceeding market expectations [2]. Group 2: Expansion Details - TSMC initially purchased 1,100 acres of land in Arizona for six fabs, two advanced packaging facilities, and a research center, but has since acquired an additional 900 acres to support its expansion plans [2]. - The company is advancing its construction of multiple fabs, including the completion of the P2 facility in Arizona, which is expected to begin production in 2026 [3]. - TSMC's first fab in Arizona is already operational, achieving production yields and process levels comparable to its advanced facilities in Taiwan [3]. Group 3: Trade Agreement Context - The recent US-Taiwan trade agreement includes a reduction of tariffs on Taiwanese goods to 15% and a commitment for Taiwanese chip companies to invest at least $250 billion in US chip production [2]. - Despite the trade agreement, TSMC's investment plans are primarily driven by customer demand rather than direct involvement in the trade negotiations [3].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's Q4 2025 financial results significantly exceeded market expectations, driven by strong demand for AI-related high-end chips, with revenue reaching $33.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9% [2] Financial Performance - TSMC's net income for Q4 2025 was $16.04 billion, a 35% increase, surpassing analyst expectations of around 25% growth [6] - The gross margin for Q4 2025 rose to 62.3%, exceeding the market estimate of 60.6% [6] - The company reported a revenue of $122.42 billion for 2025, a 35.9% increase from 2024 [3] - Operating profit margin improved to 50.8%, up 5.1 percentage points from the previous year [3] - Free cash flow for 2025 was $1.00 billion, a 15.2% increase [3] Business Segments - High-performance computing accounted for 55% of TSMC's revenue, with a 48% year-on-year growth, while smartphone revenue increased to 32% [4] - Revenue from the smartphone, IoT, and automotive sectors grew by 11%, 15%, and 34% respectively, contributing 29%, 5%, and 5% to total revenue [4] Regional Contribution - North America remains TSMC's largest market, contributing 74% to total revenue [4] Future Outlook - TSMC projects a revenue growth rate of 30% for 2026, primarily driven by AI demand [5] - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate of 15% to 20% for overall revenue over the next five years [6] - TSMC expects Q1 2026 gross margin to further increase to 63%-65% [6] Capital Expenditure - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2025 was $40.9 billion, within the expected range, with projections for 2026 capital expenditure to reach $49 billion to $56 billion [9] - The company plans to allocate 70%-80% of its capital budget to advanced process technologies [9] Production Capacity - TSMC's advanced process technology accounted for 77% of total wafer revenue in Q4 2025, with 3nm technology contributing 28% [9] - Despite significant capacity expansion, demand remains strong, and supply-demand tightness is expected to persist into 2026 [9][10] Market Impact - TSMC's stock price has surged approximately 340% since the beginning of 2023, reflecting the market's strong response to AI as a core growth driver [11] - The company's market capitalization is close to $1.7 trillion, making it the sixth most valuable company globally [11]

Group 1 - TSMC expects capital expenditures to surge to $56 billion in 2026, exceeding market expectations and reflecting strong confidence in the sustainability of global AI growth [1] - The company forecasts a revenue growth of nearly 30% in 2026, surpassing analyst average expectations [1] - TSMC's Q1 revenue guidance is projected to reach between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $33.22 billion [1] Group 2 - TSMC's strong outlook signals positive trends for AI development, supporting demand for NVIDIA accelerators and alleviating concerns about the sustainability of data center spending by tech giants like Meta and Amazon [3] - TSMC reported a net profit of NT$505.7 billion for Q4 2025, a 35% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations [3] - The company’s gross margin improved from 59.5% to 62.3%, and operating margin increased from 50.6% to 54%, both surpassing analyst forecasts [3] Group 3 - A severe shortage of memory chips in 2025 may pose challenges to TSMC's broader business, as manufacturers prioritize high-end memory production for NVIDIA and AMD chips [4] - The memory shortage is expected to impact mobile device sales in 2026, with smartphone sales projected to decline by 11.6% year-over-year according to Macquarie Capital [4]