证券研究报告·公司点评报告·计算机设备 道通科技（688208） 2025 半年度报告点评：业绩超预期，"出海 +AI"双轮驱动增长 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,251 | 3,932 | 4,899 | 6,012 | 7,556 | | 同比（%） | 43.50 | 20.95 | 24.57 | 22.73 | 25.68 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 179.23 | 640.93 | 796.86 | 987.18 | 1,192.06 | | 同比（%） | 75.66 | 257.59 | 24.33 | 23.88 | 20.75 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.27 | 0.96 | 1.19 | 1.47 | 1.78 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 137.68 | 38.50 | 30.97 | 25.00 | 20.70 | [关键词： T ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" based on its performance and growth potential [1]. Core Views - The company has proposed a mid-term dividend plan for 2025, suggesting a cash dividend of 5.8 yuan per 10 shares, reflecting a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [1]. - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 is projected to show significant growth, with a non-GAAP net profit expected to be between 455 million to 485 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 57.32% to 67.69% [1]. - The company is advancing its AI strategy, launching new products that enhance competitiveness and profitability, with a notable increase in sales volume and pricing [1]. - The company plans to increase prices of its digital energy products in the U.S. by 7% to 10% to offset high tariffs, indicating a proactive approach to cost management [1]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 3,251 million yuan in 2023 to 7,932 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 25.7% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 179.23 million yuan in 2023 to 1,374 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 28.4% [2]. - The company's EPS is forecasted to increase from 0.27 yuan in 2023 to 2.05 yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 124.2 to 16.2 [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - Daotong Technology (688208.SH) plans a significant cash dividend of 5.8 yuan per 10 shares, reflecting confidence in its future growth and commitment to shareholder value [1][4]. Financial Performance - The proposed mid-term dividend amounts to 388.6 million yuan, with a payout ratio between 79.3% and 84.5% for the first half of the year [2][3][6]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 460 million to 490 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.00% to 26.76% [2][6]. - The expected non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 455 million and 485 million yuan, indicating a growth of 57.32% to 67.69% compared to the previous year [6]. Business Strategy and Growth - Daotong Technology is focused on integrating AI technology into its business, enhancing its competitive edge in the automotive digital repair and new energy smart charging sectors [4][7]. - The company has launched new AI-driven products, such as the Ultra S2 diagnostic terminal and ADAS calibration system, which have received positive market feedback and contributed to sales growth [7]. - The AI digital repair application has shown rapid growth, with the company achieving profitability in its AI smart source business during the second quarter [7]. Historical Dividend Performance - Since its listing in February 2020, Daotong Technology has distributed dividends six times, totaling 1.025 billion yuan [8][9]. - In 2023, the company distributed 176 million yuan in dividends, accounting for 98.4% of its net profit for that year [10].

Core Viewpoint - Daotong Technology has achieved profitability in its AI digital energy business in Q2 2025, with a strong partnership with Huawei opening new growth opportunities [1][5]. Financial Performance - Daotong Technology's 2025 semi-annual performance forecast indicates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.6-4.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 19-26.76% [2]. - The company expects a net profit of 8.64 billion yuan in 2025, 10.39 billion yuan in 2026, and 12.50 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 25.1, 20.9, and 17.3 times [6]. Business Growth Drivers - The AI-driven digital maintenance and digital energy businesses are experiencing rapid growth, with the launch of new products like the Ultra S2 diagnostic terminal and ADAS calibration system enhancing competitiveness and profitability [3]. - The company has made significant breakthroughs in major global markets, securing large orders from top clients in various industries, which lays a solid foundation for long-term growth [3]. Revenue Structure Optimization - The company has started to separately list AI software revenue, reflecting a shift towards a model where AI software services are charged continuously, with significant growth in the charging cloud business [4]. - The charging cloud business has seen an 80% increase in orders in Q1 2025, indicating strong demand and potential for accelerated revenue growth [4]. Strategic Partnerships - Daotong Technology has become a partner of Huawei, collaborating on the development of integrated smart solutions, which is expected to significantly enhance future growth prospects [5]. - The partnership involves the integration of advanced AI models and hardware, aimed at improving operational efficiency and driving innovation across various business areas [5].

Group 1: Bond Market Insights - In May 2025, the bond custody scale maintained rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, and an additional custody scale of 2.3 trillion yuan, which is 940.2 billion yuan more than seasonal increases [7] - Government bonds (including national and local bonds) had a total supply scale of nearly 1.4 trillion yuan in May, with national bonds at 904.1 billion yuan and local bonds at 521.6 billion yuan [7] - Banks and asset management accounts are the main players in bond allocation, with foreign capital and securities firms reducing their holdings [7] Group 2: Macroeconomic Trends - The start of the summer travel season has led to increased offline activities, with indicators showing a rise in travel and entertainment, such as a 18.2% year-on-year increase in the Baidu migration index [3][10] - The production of raw materials is showing marginal recovery, supported by stabilized prices, with various industries experiencing different levels of recovery [9] - The real estate market is seeing a slight decline in new home transactions, with average daily sales in 30 major cities decreasing [10] Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry - The white liquor sector is focusing on low-alcohol products and continuous innovation, with companies like Shui Jing Fang and Yanghe actively developing lower alcohol content products to meet changing consumer preferences [16] - The beverage market is shifting towards functional products, with companies launching new offerings to cater to specific consumer needs, such as electrolyte drinks and health-focused beverages [17] - The snack industry is experiencing strong growth, driven by consumer demand for value and health-conscious options, with companies expanding their product lines [17] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - The introduction of the first commercial health insurance innovation drug directory in 2025 aims to guide innovative drugs back to their clinical value, with a focus on high-innovation and high-clinical-value drugs [18][19] - The collaboration between commercial insurance and the healthcare system is expected to enhance the accessibility and affordability of innovative drugs [18] Group 5: Renewable Energy Sector - The wind power index increased by 1.3%, while the solar energy index rose by 5.76%, indicating a positive trend in the renewable energy market [22] - The central government is emphasizing the development of offshore wind power and addressing issues of low-price competition in the solar industry [23] - Investment opportunities are emerging in offshore wind demand and solar energy, with recommendations for companies like Mingyang Smart Energy and LONGi Green Energy [25] Group 6: Company-Specific Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 460 million to 490 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19% to 26.76% [27] - The company's strategy of fully embracing AI has led to significant improvements in operational efficiency and market competitiveness [28] - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in global markets, particularly in the automotive aftermarket and energy sectors, which is expected to drive future growth [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [1][12] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 460 million to 490 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.00% to 26.76% [4][7] - The company is accelerating the integration of AI technology into its business operations, which is driving growth in its digital repair and smart energy businesses [7][8] - The company has made significant progress in its "Fully Embrace AI" strategy, enhancing its competitive edge and profitability in various markets [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts a net profit of 4.55 billion to 4.85 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a substantial year-on-year growth of 57.32% to 67.69% for the net profit excluding non-recurring items [4][7] - For the second quarter of 2025, the expected net profit is between 261 million to 291 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of -0.38% to +11.07% [7] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 3,932 million yuan in 2024 to 7,541 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22.2% [6][10] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 55.1% to 55.5% from 2025 to 2027 [6][10] - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 16.3% in 2024 to 18.7% in 2027 [6][10] - Return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 18.0% in 2025 to 24.5% in 2027 [6][10] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 33.0 in 2024 to 15.0 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [6][10] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 6.3 in 2024 to 3.8 in 2027 [6][10] Strategic Developments - The company has launched new AI-driven products, such as the Ultra S2 diagnostic terminal and ADAS calibration system, which have received positive market feedback [7][8] - The company is expanding its presence in global markets, achieving significant breakthroughs in various industries, including energy and transportation [8]

Core Viewpoint - Daotong Technology (688208.SH) has reported significant growth in its operating performance for the first half of 2025, with a substantial increase in net profit compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company expects its net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, to reach between 455 million to 485 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.58 million to 19.58 million yuan, with a growth rate of 57.32% to 67.69% [1]. - The total net profit is projected to be between 460 million to 490 million yuan, an increase of 7.34 million to 10.34 million yuan, with a growth rate of 19.00% to 26.76% [1]. - After excluding non-recurring gains and losses and share-based payment expenses, the net profit is expected to rise to between 470 million to 508 million yuan, with a growth rate of 62.51% to 75.65% [1]. AI Strategy Integration - The significant growth in performance is attributed to the company's ongoing "full embrace of AI" strategy, which enhances product competitiveness and profitability while opening new growth avenues [2]. - In the digital repair sector, the launch of the new Ultra S2 diagnostic terminal and ADAS calibration system has improved diagnostic accuracy and efficiency, leading to rapid growth in this business segment [2]. Market Demand and Product Performance - The TPMS product line has also shown strong performance, driven by increasing global vehicle ownership and heightened consumer focus on driving safety, resulting in high sales growth [2]. - In the smart energy sector, the introduction of a new intelligent charging solution has positioned the company favorably in global markets, particularly in Europe and the U.S., with significant orders from top clients [3]. Robotics Business Outlook - The company is actively exploring opportunities in the AI robotics field, which is on the verge of large-scale application, with trends indicating deeper technology integration and expanded application scenarios [4]. - Collaborations with technology giants are being pursued to build comprehensive solutions in the inspection domain, which will support the future scalability of the robotics business [4]. Internal Management Innovations - The company is implementing AI-driven management transformations across core business areas, enhancing operational efficiency and achieving dual improvements in management innovation and organizational capability [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a non-GAAP net profit of 455-485 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 57.3% to 67.7% [7] - The growth is driven by the application of advanced technologies in various product lines, including digital maintenance and digital energy businesses [7] - The company has made significant progress in overseas markets, particularly in the charging station sector, with successful partnerships and product deployments [7] - AI technology is expected to enhance core business operations, with a focus on commercializing solutions in collaboration with Huawei [7] - The report forecasts net profits of 800 million yuan, 980 million yuan, and 1.18 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27, 22, and 18 [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 3.25 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.56 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 25.68% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 179.23 million yuan in 2023 to 1.18 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 20.46% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.27 yuan in 2023 to 1.77 yuan in 2027 [1]