2025.11. 03 本文字数：2147，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 11月3日，央行公告称，近日中国人民银行与韩国银行续签双边本币互换协议，互换规模为4000亿 元人民币/70万亿韩元，协议有效期五年，经双方同意可以展期。 央行表示，双方再次续签双边本币互换协议，有助于进一步深化两国货币金融合作，促进双边贸易便 利化，维护金融市场稳定。 日前，央行发布的《人民币国际化报告（2025）》（下称《报告》）披露，截至2025年6月30日， 中国人民银行签署的有效双边本币互换协议涉及互换规模超过4.5万亿元人民币。 近年来，人民币国际化进程持续提速，在跨境贸易结算、金融市场开放、储备货币地位等多个关键领 域取得成效。 人民币投融资功能进一步强化。截至2025年6月末，境外主体持有境内人民币股票、债券、贷款以 及存款等金融资产余额合计10.4万亿元，同比增长5.2%。截至2025年一季度末，IMF（国际货币基 金组织）公布的外汇储备币种构成调查（COFER）报送国持有的人民币储备规模为2463亿美元。 离岸人民币市场也稳步发展。中国人民银行与香港金融管理局推出联通两地市场、便利人民币交易的 多项合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the Bank of Korea have renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement, which is set at 400 billion RMB/70 trillion KRW for five years, aimed at enhancing monetary cooperation and stabilizing financial markets [1] Group 1: Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement - The renewed agreement will facilitate trade and investment between China and South Korea, providing liquidity support to financial markets [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the PBOC has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with 43 countries, with 32 active agreements totaling over 4.5 trillion RMB [2] Group 2: Strengthening RMB Financing Functions - By the end of June 2025, foreign entities held RMB financial assets in China totaling 10.4 trillion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [3] - The offshore RMB market is developing steadily, with RMB deposits in major offshore markets reaching approximately 1.6 trillion RMB, a historical high [3] Group 3: Policy and Market Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes advancing RMB internationalization and enhancing capital account openness, indicating a more proactive approach compared to previous plans [4] - The PBOC aims to streamline policies related to cross-border RMB financial services and promote RMB settlement for overseas projects [4] Group 4: Financial Market Opening - The report encourages foreign institutions to participate in financial business trials and supports the orderly investment of foreign entities in China's financial markets [5] - The PBOC plans to enhance the offshore RMB market by increasing liquidity supply and diversifying RMB financial products [5] Group 5: Cross-Border Payment System - The PBOC is working on building a self-controlled cross-border payment system to improve the efficiency of RMB clearing services [6] - There is a focus on enhancing regulatory frameworks for cross-border RMB transactions to ensure risk management and safeguard the internationalization of the RMB [6]

Core Insights - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session outlines a grand blueprint for China's development over the next five years and beyond, emphasizing high-level opening up and creating a win-win cooperation landscape [1] - The financial sector is identified as the "vanguard" and "main force" in promoting high-level opening up, which is crucial for reform and development [1] Financial Industry Developments - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, significant progress has been made in the opening up of China's financial sector, including the removal of foreign ownership limits in various financial fields and the establishment of wholly-owned foreign firms [2] - The international status of the Renminbi has steadily improved, becoming the largest settlement currency for China's foreign payments and ranking among the top three currencies for trade financing and payments globally [2] Future Financial Policies - A series of innovative financial policy measures are being developed, such as promoting the experiences of free trade zones and ports, optimizing the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system, and introducing Renminbi foreign exchange futures [3] - The financial system aims to enhance market infrastructure and deepen high-level financial market openness to better serve high-quality development and modernization [3] Security and Risk Management - The importance of balancing financial openness with security is emphasized, with a focus on improving macro-prudential management and monitoring cross-border capital flows [4] - The financial system will leverage technology such as big data and artificial intelligence to enhance regulatory capabilities and participate in global regulatory cooperation [4] Strategic Direction - The financial sector is set to develop in a more open, inclusive, and balanced manner, contributing to the creation of a win-win cooperation landscape and the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind [4]

Group 1: Currency and Financial Markets - The People's Bank of China is advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi and researching foreign exchange futures, aiming to develop a Renminbi foreign exchange derivatives market and promote Renminbi trading with more neighboring and Belt and Road countries [1] - The Hong Kong government is inviting the Shanghai Gold Exchange to participate in establishing a central clearing system for gold, with a goal to surpass 2000 tons in gold trading within three years [1] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached 1313 tons in Q3, marking a record high for a single quarter, with investment demand increasing by 47% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices and Economic Outlook - The World Bank's Commodity Market Outlook indicates that global commodity prices may decline for the fourth consecutive year, reaching a six-year low by 2026, with energy prices expected to drop by 12% in 2025 and further by 10% in 2026 [2] - Gold prices are projected to rise by 42% in 2025 and an additional 5% in 2026 [2] Group 3: Economic Performance - The Eurozone's Q3 GDP preliminary value showed a year-on-year increase of 1.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.2%, both exceeding market expectations [5] - France's Q3 GDP grew by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, marking the fastest growth rate in 2023 [6] - Germany's Q3 GDP remained flat quarter-on-quarter, continuing a trend of low performance for 14 consecutive quarters [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese financial market is set to enhance its derivatives offerings, particularly focusing on the introduction of RMB foreign exchange futures and the development of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board index futures to better serve the real economy and promote high-quality financial market development [1][5]. Group 1: RMB Foreign Exchange Futures - The introduction of RMB foreign exchange futures is deemed crucial for China's financial high-level opening and quality development, as it will help manage the risks associated with RMB exchange rate fluctuations [5][6]. - Currently, 81% of A-share listed companies engaged in futures and derivatives business have initiated foreign exchange hedging activities, indicating a strong demand for standardized and efficient hedging tools [6][7]. - The standardization and real-time trading features of RMB foreign exchange futures can address the liquidity issues faced by existing non-standardized contracts, thereby supporting Chinese enterprises in international competition [7][8]. Group 2: Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index Futures - The development of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board index futures is expected to stabilize pricing, reduce market volatility, and attract long-term capital to the market [4][3]. - The introduction of these futures will enhance the pricing discovery function, aligning the index closer to the true value of listed companies and improving the investment willingness of long-term funds [4][3]. - The availability of index futures will provide institutional investors with more flexible asset allocation strategies, enriching their investment approaches [4][3].

Core Insights - The Chinese futures market is experiencing robust growth with an increasing variety of products and a more comprehensive system, covering major sectors of the national economy and making progress in areas like international openness and national development [1][3][4] - There is a need for further improvement in areas such as green products, technology-related derivatives, and foreign exchange futures compared to mature overseas markets [1][7] Product Innovation - As of September 12, 2025, there are 157 listed futures and options in China, covering various sectors including agriculture, metals, energy, chemicals, construction materials, shipping, and finance [1] - Recent innovations include the launch of the world's first cultural paper financial derivative, the futures and options for coated printing paper, and the first recycled commodity futures and options for casting aluminum alloy [1][2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved several new products, including monthly average price futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene, marking a significant expansion in the domestic commodity futures market [2] Strategic Development - The introduction of strategic futures products enhances the market's ability to serve national development strategies, helping enterprises hedge market risks and stabilize operations [3][4] - The futures market is increasingly integrated into national development goals, contributing to food security and rural revitalization through innovative models like "insurance + futures" [3][4] Market Structure and Internationalization - The structure of the futures market is becoming more diverse, effectively meeting the personalized needs of various enterprises, especially in the context of complex macro trade situations [4][6] - The number of futures and options available to qualified foreign investors has expanded to over 90, indicating a growing internationalization of the market [3][6] Policy and Regulatory Support - The rapid development of the futures market is supported by strong policy backing and precise guidance, with the State Council's 2024 opinions providing a framework for high-quality development [6][7] - The market's depth and breadth are continuously improving, with increasing recognition among enterprises of the importance of using futures tools for risk management [6] Future Directions - There is a call for the introduction of futures products that align with high-quality economic transformation, particularly in green energy, carbon emissions, and digital economy sectors [9][10] - The market is expected to play a crucial role in managing financial risks and supporting the internationalization of the RMB, with hopes for the quick launch of RMB foreign exchange futures [10]

Core Insights - The Chinese futures market is experiencing robust growth, with an increasing variety of products and a more comprehensive system, covering major sectors of the national economy [1][2] - There is a need for further development in areas such as green products, technology-related derivatives, and foreign exchange futures compared to mature overseas markets [1][6] - The introduction of innovative futures products is essential for supporting high-quality economic transformation and stabilizing industrial chains [1][3] Product Innovation - As of September 12, 2025, there are 157 listed futures and options products in China, spanning agriculture, metals, energy, chemicals, construction materials, shipping, and finance [1] - Recent innovations include the launch of the world's first cultural paper financial derivatives and the first futures and options for recycled aluminum alloy [1][2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved several new products, including monthly average price futures for various plastics, indicating a growing diversity in the futures market [2] Strategic Development - The launch of strategic futures products enhances the market's ability to support national development strategies, helping enterprises hedge market risks and stabilize operations [3][4] - The futures market is increasingly integrated into national development goals, contributing to food security and rural revitalization through innovative models like "insurance + futures" [3][4] - The market's openness has expanded, with over 90 futures and options products available for qualified foreign investors [3] Policy and Regulatory Support - The rapid development of the futures market is supported by strong policy backing and collaboration among various stakeholders [4][6] - The State Council's guidelines emphasize the core functions of the futures market in serving the real economy and national strategies, providing a framework for innovation [4][6] - The recognition of the importance of futures tools for risk management among enterprises is growing, laying a solid foundation for further innovation [4] Internationalization and Global Trends - The internationalization of the futures market is progressing, with an increasing number of products covering energy, metals, and agriculture [6] - The cancellation of foreign ownership limits for futures companies has allowed for greater foreign investment [6] - Observing global trends, there is a push for the development of green and technology-related futures products in China, inspired by successful models in overseas markets [7][8] Future Directions - Recommendations for future product development include focusing on green electricity futures, carbon emission rights futures, and derivatives related to new energy and high-value products [8][9] - The need for a more diverse range of risk management tools is emphasized, particularly in light of the evolving macroeconomic landscape [4][6] - The importance of balancing innovation with regulatory oversight is highlighted, ensuring that the futures market can effectively manage risks while fostering growth [9]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai is poised to establish itself as a global offshore RMB center, supported by its financial infrastructure, policy backing, and market development, although challenges remain in international recognition and product offerings [1][2][3]. Group 1: Conditions for Establishing Offshore RMB Center - Shanghai is the only international financial center in China outside of Hong Kong, with 1,782 licensed financial institutions, one-third of which are foreign [2]. - The city ranks first in national cargo throughput and cross-border trade volume, hosting the highest number of multinational company headquarters in China [2]. - Shanghai's financial market transaction volume is projected to reach 36.503 trillion yuan in 2024, placing it among the top globally [2]. - The city has established a robust cross-border payment system (CIPS) and maintains close cooperation with financial institutions in Hong Kong and Singapore [2]. Group 2: Policy Support - The central government has prioritized the development of Shanghai's offshore RMB market, issuing supportive policies since 2021 [3]. - Recent initiatives include the "Action Plan for Further Enhancing Cross-Border Financial Services" aimed at promoting RMB's cross-border use [3]. Group 3: Market Development Achievements - In 2024, Shanghai accounted for 47% of the national cross-border RMB settlement volume [4]. - The offshore bond issuance has exceeded 1 trillion USD, with innovative products like free trade offshore bonds [4]. - The "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" and "Shanghai-London Stock Connect" have facilitated direct RMB investments in domestic stock markets [4]. - The number of FT accounts in Shanghai has surpassed 170,000, with balances in the trillion yuan range [4]. Group 4: Current Challenges in Offshore RMB Market - The international recognition and acceptance of RMB remain limited, with only 29.3% of cross-border payments in RMB from January to August 2024 [5]. - There is a lack of sufficient cross-border RMB financial products and services, particularly in hedging tools and long-term products [6]. - The absence of a mature RMB internationalization repatriation mechanism hampers the smooth return of RMB used internationally [7]. - Regulatory constraints and insufficient market-driven interest rate mechanisms limit the growth of the offshore RMB market [8]. Group 5: Recommendations for Developing Offshore RMB Center - Explore the establishment of an "offshore economic function zone" in Shanghai, with a legal framework that aligns with international standards [10]. - Leverage Shanghai's financial market advantages to develop offshore insurance, bonds, and other financial services [11]. - Enhance RMB repatriation channels and hedging tools to facilitate cross-border transactions [12]. - Implement policies to allow offshore RMB to be used as the primary currency in offshore banking operations [13]. - Strengthen infrastructure for RMB transactions, including payment systems and trading platforms [14]. - Optimize legal and tax frameworks to improve the global competitiveness of offshore RMB [15]. - Transition foreign exchange policies towards a more open platform-based approach to enhance RMB asset trading [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of enhancing the financial service system to better support technological innovation and industrial transformation, highlighting the capital market's role in providing comprehensive services for companies at various stages of development [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to improve the inclusiveness and adaptability of regulations, focusing on deepening reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market to create a more attractive and competitive market system [1][2] - The CSRC plans to implement a series of reforms, including the introduction of a growth layer in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the resumption of listing standards for unprofitable companies, to better serve high-quality technology enterprises [2] Group 2 - The CSRC is committed to strengthening the linkage between equity and debt financing to support technological innovation, promoting the development of Sci-Tech bonds and related financial products [3] - The initiative includes the approval of the first two data center REITs in China, aiming to support technology companies in utilizing new asset types for financing [3] - The focus is on cultivating patient and long-term capital by enhancing the participation of social security funds, insurance funds, and industrial capital in private equity investments [3] Group 3 - The CSRC emphasizes the need for listed technology companies to enhance their competitiveness and operational performance, ensuring that listing is viewed as a starting point rather than an end goal [4] - Regulatory measures will be improved to facilitate mergers and acquisitions, and to enhance the flexibility of stock incentive programs for listed companies [4] - The CSRC aims to create a more open and inclusive capital market ecosystem, encouraging foreign investment and participation in the Chinese capital market [5] Group 4 - Upcoming measures include optimizing the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system and expanding the range of products available for foreign investors [5] - The CSRC plans to enhance the convenience for global investors to participate in the Chinese capital market, allowing them to share in the opportunities presented by China's innovation and development [5]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced the implementation of eight policy measures in Shanghai, including the promotion of RMB foreign exchange futures trading to enhance the management of exchange rate risks for financial institutions and foreign trade enterprises [1] Group 1: RMB Foreign Exchange Futures - The introduction of RMB foreign exchange futures has been officially prioritized, despite its absence in the domestic market [1] - The offshore RMB futures market has been relatively mature, with the Singapore Exchange launching the first cash-settled RMB futures in October 2014 [1] Group 2: Demand for Risk Management Tools - The increasing complexity of international circumstances and significant cross-border capital flows have heightened the exchange rate risk exposure for domestic enterprises, leading to a rapid growth in hedging demand [2] - The current foreign exchange derivative market in China includes forward contracts, swaps, currency swaps, and options, which partially meet the hedging needs of the real economy [2] - However, the evolving global economic landscape necessitates the introduction of domestic foreign exchange futures to fill the existing gap and enhance market structure [2] Group 3: Market Competitiveness and Internationalization - The introduction of standardized onshore derivatives is expected to significantly enhance the international competitiveness of China's foreign exchange market [3] - A diversified foreign exchange product system will attract more international investors, increasing market liquidity and trading volume [3] - Improved domestic exchange rate risk management tools will boost foreign investors' confidence in holding RMB assets, promoting the currency's broader use in international payments, settlements, investments, and reserves [3]