人民币升值的大时代已然来临，人民币对美元汇率再度升破7.0整数关口，不少人欢呼雀跃，觉得这是国力强盛的体现，是中国资产升值的信号。 可为什么对欧元却大跌8.7%？欧美联手施压、投行高喊"低估"，真是在帮全球平衡，还是另有所图？ 从今年四五月份开始，一种诡异的氛围就在全球金融市场蔓延。欧美不仅联手在舆论场上高喊"中国货币被低估"，国际货币基金组织也颇有默契地跟着敲边 鼓。 从高盛到野村，顶级投行们的报告字里行间都在暗示：人民币如果不升值，就是破坏全球平衡。这套连环招太眼熟了，简直就是四十年前"广场协议"的像素 级复刻。 当年，美国为了解决双赤字，联合英法德日把日元推向了升值快车道。结果大家都知道，日元三年翻倍，不仅让日本引以为傲的制造业出口崩盘，还把整个 国家的资本逼向了楼市和股市的泡沫狂欢，最终留下了那个著名的"失去的三十年"。 现在，这把同样带着寒光的镰刀，又架到了我们脖子上。欧美的算盘打得极为精明：联手对人民币搞"竞争性贬值"，让美元和欧元相对变便宜，倒逼人民币 被动升值。 只要人民币一贵，中国出口商品的价格优势就会瞬间归零，欧美老百姓自然会转头去买越南、墨西哥或者他们本国制造的产品。这样一来，不仅能顺手 ...

"透视图"栏目在年终特别策划了"36氪年度透视"系列，用数据透视2025全年趋势，以图片呈现今年商业世界中不可错过的要点。这是我们的第4 期内容。 作者｜徐蔡钰 就像全球其他市场一样，中国市场也无法承载过多的汽车品牌。2025年，"卷"已不再是汽车行业的全部注脚，"分化"才是真正的残酷真相。 36氪制图 当价格战打成持久战，技术红利成为幸存者的唯一底牌。从电驱系统的极致集成，到碳化硅与电池成本的断崖式下探，供应链的降本红利正被这一代中国车 企消化殆尽。但这一次，毛利率取代了销量，成为检验谁能留在牌桌上的终极标尺——赛力斯与小米凭借智驾溢价站稳20%红线，而曾经的利润奶牛特斯拉 与比亚迪，正面临前所未有的利润承压。 36氪制图 旧秩序正在崩塌中重塑： 问界在豪车市场对BBA完成了实质性清场，小米仅凭单一爆品就切走20-30万级市场四分之一的蛋糕。而在国内红海之外，出海已 成必选项，比亚迪海外销量翻倍式暴涨，新势力更是直接将工厂与资本投向全球。 36氪制图 2025年的汽车战场，已从单一的价格肉搏，升维至一场关于技术定义权、全球定价权与产业链控制力的全方位"价值战"。 36氪制图 回看第3期内容 ...

王曙光强调，中国投行经过多年发展，已实现从"通道型中介"向全球化综合金融服务商的历史性跃升。 在服务实体经济方面，以中金公司为例，其创立以来协助各类企业完成的境内外直接融资总规模已超过 67万亿元，为资产合理定价提供了价值基础。 在跨境投融资领域，中金公司2025年保荐宁德时代在香港联交所上市，成为2023年以来全球规模最大的 IPO。项目成功引入十余家全球顶尖主权财富基金，彰显了中国核心资产对全球资本的吸引力，也是中 国投行掌握定价主导权的有力证明。在绿色金融领域，中金公司对标《可持续金融共同分类目录》，在 香港推出符合该目录的创新债券评估框架，为全球可持续金融标准制定注入中国智慧。 同时，中国投行需加速提升国际化业务能力，实现从"跟随服务"到"前瞻引领"的跨越。在服务中资企 业"出海"过程中，提供全生命周期、深度本地化解决方案，将中国在市场发展、产业培育等方面的经验 有机融入国际金融生态。 "提升我国在全球市场的定价权，不仅关乎国家在全球金融体系中的地位与竞争力，更直接关系到国家 在全球资源配置中的话语权、规则制定中的主导权。"中金公司党委副书记、副董事长、总裁王曙光表 示，提升全球定价权是一场深层次的" ...

12月14日，中信证券最新研报指出，从此次中央经济工作会议内容来看，做大内循环仍是重心，定位和 去年相似。实际上，明年外需继续超预期的难度在加大，但内需可期待的因素在增多。从这些角度来 看，海外敞口品种业绩兑现力强，但估值继续提升难度大；内需敞口品种景气度一般，但一旦超预期修 复，估值弹性不小。配置上要寻求交集，即海外敞口为基底、内需积极变化也会产生催化的品种。从配 置角度，最大的交集就是我们此前一直提示的资源与传统制造业领域中国在全球有份额优势的行业对应 的龙头企业，讲出"供应在内反内卷，需求在外出利润"的投资逻辑，不断提升在全球的定价权，重点关 注的行业包括有色、化工和新能源等，虽然能见度高的利基市场在海外，但如果内需有积极变化，这些 品种的弹性不小。 ...

"提升我国在全球市场的定价权，不仅关乎国家在全球金融体系中的地位与竞争力，更直接关系到国家在全球资源配置中的话语权、规则制定中的主导权， 以及高质量发展进程中的战略主动权。"12月6日，在南方财经论坛2025年会证券业分论坛上，中金公司党委副书记、副董事长、总裁王曙光在主题演讲中如 此表示。 他将提升全球定价权定义为一场深层次的"制度话语权之争、规则主导权之夺、价值评估体系之塑"，并系统阐述了中国投资银行从"规则接受者"向"规则贡 献者"乃至"标准定义者"跃升的时代使命与行动路径。 王曙光指出，站在百年变局加速演进与我国高水平对外开放深化的历史交汇点，这场关乎未来格局的竞争，已然拉开序幕。 21世纪经济报道 记者 崔文静 实习生 张长荣 北京报道 面对外部环境的深刻变化，我国以坚定的战略定力持续推进高水平对外开放，为提升定价权提供了根本遵循与历史性机遇。 王曙光援引党的二十届四中全会关于"稳步扩大制度型开放"、"十五五"规划建议中"推进全球经济金融治理改革"以及中央金融工作会议提出"金融强国"并强 调坚持"'引进来'和'走出去'并重"等一系列重大部署指出，这些顶层设计清晰地表明，中国资本市场的发展目标已实现战 ...

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the impact of recent U.S. tariffs on China, indicating that while there may be short-term disruptions in global assets, the medium-term trend of asset revaluation in China remains unaffected [1][6]. Credit Market - In September, M2 growth was 8.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from August, while M1 increased by 7.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from August, indicating a narrowing gap between M1 and M2 [3]. - New RMB loans in September were 1.29 trillion yuan, below the market expectation of 1.46 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of approximately 300 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [3]. Equity Market - Traditional manufacturing in China is poised to gain global pricing power due to a shift in capital expenditure structures and a slowdown in domestic capital spending [5]. - High-dividend blue-chip stocks and high-growth stocks are highlighted as key investment opportunities for the fourth quarter, with a focus on sectors like banking and utilities for stable returns, and new energy and AI for long-term growth potential [7]. Industry Research - The rebound in inbound tourism in China is expected to significantly boost the tourism sector, with total inbound tourism revenue projected to grow from $94 billion in 2024 to $525 billion by 2034 [11]. - The coal industry is anticipated to rebound in the fourth quarter due to supply constraints and increased demand, with expectations of higher coal prices supported by improved supply-demand dynamics [12]. - The non-ferrous metals sector is identified as a strong performer, driven by global political factors and trade disruptions, presenting investment opportunities in related resource sectors [13]. Macro and Fixed Income - The bond market is entering a recovery phase, with increased attractiveness for low-risk assets amid a declining risk appetite in the market [18]. - The bond market is expected to perform well in the fourth quarter, supported by a weak domestic demand environment and potential monetary policy easing [19]. - Interest rates are projected to remain low and volatile, influenced by economic recovery dynamics and the real estate market's stabilization [20]. Asset Allocation - The stock market is viewed positively in the long term, but caution is advised in the short term, with a focus on undervalued sectors and credit bonds offering yield spread opportunities [22].

Core Viewpoint - The recent export control regulations by China on rare earth elements have significant implications for the global semiconductor industry, highlighting the strategic importance of these materials in manufacturing and supply chains [2][5][6]. Group 1: Export Control Regulations - On October 9, China announced new export control regulations targeting key rare earth elements and advanced semiconductor production [2]. - The regulations have raised concerns about potential disruptions in the global supply chain, particularly for companies like TSMC and Samsung [5]. - China's clarification on October 12 indicated that the regulations aim to protect national security and fulfill international obligations, not to ban exports [5]. Group 2: Strategic Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earth elements are embedded in critical technologies, making them indispensable for various high-performance devices, from electric vehicles to smartphones [6][9]. - The use of rare earths is minimal in quantity but crucial for the performance parameters of high-end equipment, likening their role to that of vitamins in a system [9]. Group 3: China's Market Position - China has nearly monopolized the rare earth market, reducing the number of companies from nearly 200 to six major state-owned enterprises between 2005 and 2015 [11]. - The country controls production quotas and can leverage rare earths as a negotiating tool in international relations, as demonstrated during the 2010 Japan-China diplomatic conflict [12][17]. Group 4: Refining and Processing Challenges - While many countries possess rare earth deposits, the complex refining and separation processes present significant barriers, which China has mastered over decades [15][17]. - The Mountain Pass mine in California, despite its historical significance, still relies on China for processing, illustrating the lack of a complete supply chain in the U.S. [17][19]. Group 5: Global Manufacturing Dynamics - The control over rare earths allows China to influence global manufacturing locations, prompting companies to relocate production closer to these resources [20]. - China's strategy has evolved from merely exporting raw materials to capturing the entire supply chain, including high-value downstream products [22]. Group 6: Strategic Resource Management - China's experience in managing rare earth resources offers lessons for other critical materials like cobalt, lithium, and nickel, emphasizing centralized governance and vertical integration [23]. - The ongoing competition for rare earths reflects broader geopolitical dynamics, contrasting market-driven approaches in the West with China's state-led resource strategy [25].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has announced stricter export controls on certain medium and heavy rare earth items, effective from November 8, 2025, which is expected to strengthen China's dominance in the global rare earth market and enhance its pricing power [1] Group 1: Export Control Measures - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have implemented export controls on specific rare earth equipment and raw materials, as well as rare earth technologies [1] - The new export control policy expands to cover overseas transshipment and technology transfer, complicating access for foreign companies even if they obtain ore [1] Group 2: Market Impact - In 2024, China's rare earth production is projected to account for 68.57% of global output, with reserves representing 39.21%, indicating a significant supply dominance [1] - Following the previous export controls in April, overseas medium and heavy rare earth prices surged, leading to a rapid widening of the price gap between domestic and international markets [1] Group 3: Competitive Advantage - The enhanced export controls are expected to solidify China's competitive advantage across the entire rare earth industry chain, thereby reinforcing its global pricing authority [1]