Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have led to a significant drop, causing uncertainty among buyers regarding whether to purchase or wait for further price changes [1][4][7]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On October 24, gold prices experienced a sharp decline, with spot gold dropping by 1.92% to $4054.44 per ounce, while COMEX futures fell by 1.91% to $4066.4 per ounce [1]. - The decline in gold prices has not resulted in a surge of buying activity; many consumers remain hesitant to purchase gold despite the price drop [7][9]. - In Beijing, there has been an increase in customers looking to buy investment gold bars, with reports of shortages in 10-gram investment gold bars due to heightened demand [9][10]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Sentiment - Many consumers are experiencing a "wait and see" approach, with some expressing a desire to wait for further price drops before making purchases [9][10]. - A notable trend is the "herd effect," where consumers tend to buy more as prices rise and hesitate when prices fall, leading to emotional decision-making [13]. - Some consumers have successfully capitalized on price fluctuations, with individuals reporting profits from selling gold bars at higher prices than their purchase costs [10][11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Experts suggest that consumers looking to invest in gold should consider purchasing investment-grade gold products, such as gold bars or ETFs, rather than jewelry, which incurs higher processing fees [17]. - A long-term investment strategy, such as regular purchases of small amounts of gold, is recommended for those who view gold as a savings tool rather than a speculative investment [15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, dropping over 6.3% to below $4100 per ounce, is attributed to easing geopolitical tensions and a softening of trade attitudes from Trump, leading to profit-taking in the precious metals market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 21, gold prices experienced a significant drop, falling from around $4342 to $4068.7 per ounce within hours, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013 [1]. - Prior to the drop, gold had surged over 2.5% on October 20, reaching a historical high of $4381.29 per ounce before closing at $4356.26 [3]. - The volatility in gold and silver prices indicates a potential overheating in the market, with the implied volatility of gold options exceeding 20, suggesting increased trading risks [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - HSBC forecasts that gold's upward momentum may continue until 2026, with a target price of $5000 per ounce, driven by strong central bank purchases and ongoing concerns over U.S. fiscal deficits [5]. - The demand for gold is increasingly viewed as a hedge against debt sustainability risks and potential dollar weakness, particularly among emerging market central banks [5]. - However, HSBC warns that if the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are fewer than market expectations, the upward trajectory of gold prices may face challenges [5].

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty in trade relations has increased demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a rise in gold prices, which reached a new historical high of $4,381.29 per ounce before closing at $4,374.30, a 3.82% increase [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - COMEX gold futures experienced a significant increase, with prices briefly surpassing $4,381.29 per ounce, marking a new historical high [1] - As of the close, the gold ETF Huaxia (518850) fell by 3.12%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) dropped by 4.45% [1] Group 2: Trade Tensions - Trump has pressured India regarding its purchase of Russian oil, threatening to impose "huge tariffs" on Indian goods, which has escalated trade tensions between the two countries [1] - Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and India aim to reach a trade agreement and reduce punitive tariffs [1] Group 3: Economic Uncertainty - The government shutdown in the U.S. has delayed economic data, amplifying economic uncertainty and reinforcing safe-haven sentiment [1] - Jeffrey Christian, managing partner of CPM Group, noted that political and economic concerns were the primary drivers behind the rapid rebound in gold prices following a significant drop last Friday [1]

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty in trade relations has increased demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a rise in gold prices, which reached a new historical high of $4,381.29 per ounce before closing at $4,374.30 per ounce, a 3.82% increase [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - After a brief pullback, gold prices surged again, reflecting heightened market risk aversion due to trade tensions [1] - The gold ETF, Huaxia, fell by 3.12%, while gold stock ETFs dropped by 4.45%, indicating a mixed response in related investment vehicles [1] Group 2: Trade Tensions - Trump has pressured India regarding its purchase of Russian oil, threatening to impose "huge tariffs" on Indian goods, which escalates trade tensions between the two countries [1] - Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and India aim to reach a trade agreement and reduce punitive tariffs [1] Group 3: Economic Uncertainty - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed economic data releases, amplifying economic uncertainty and reinforcing safe-haven sentiment [1] - Jeffrey Christian from CPM Group highlighted that political and economic concerns were the main drivers behind the rapid rebound in gold prices following a significant drop [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold ETFs and spot gold prices, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - As of October 17, 2025, the gold ETF (159834) experienced a near 3% increase, currently up 1.43%, marking a potential five-day consecutive rise with a trading volume of 52.24 million yuan [1] - The gold ETF (159834) has seen a total net inflow of 83.21 million yuan over the past four days, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - On October 16, spot gold reached a high of 4,380.79 USD/ounce, while COMEX futures hit 4,392.0 USD/ounce, both setting new historical records [2] - The World Gold Council notes that overall gold holdings remain low, suggesting that the market is not yet saturated, as speculative positions have not reached historical peaks [2] - Short-term outlook indicates that most metals are rising due to ample liquidity, with gold's financial attributes likely to support further price increases [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The rebound of consumer inflation in the US reduces the expected number of Fed rate cuts. The EU intends to hold a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine to reach a peace agreement. However, due to continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the downside space for precious metal prices is limited. It is recommended that investors wait for price drops to build long positions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 775.86 yuan/gram, down 2.77 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 23,234, and the open interest decreased by 730 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 9,173 yuan/ten - grams, up 15 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the spot Shanghai silver T + D was 452,542, and the open interest was 3,447,314, down 63,142 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 3,381.70 dollars/ounce, down 101 dollars from the previous week. The trading volume was 115,486, and the open interest was 328,360, down 3,192 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 38.02 dollars/ounce, down 0.01 dollars from the previous day. The trading volume was 86,225, and the open interest was 70,294, down 34,959 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **US Economy**: US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and real retail sales grew for the tenth consecutive month. In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence unexpectedly declined, and long - and short - term inflation expectations rose. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars of mainly short - term Treasury bonds in the third quarter. The use of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool is approaching zero. Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the PPI annual rate in July and the core CPI annual rate at the consumer end. The inflation expectations in August are higher than expected, reducing the expected number of Fed rate cuts to September/October [1]. - **European Central Bank**: The ECB paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The eurozone (Germany) CPI annual rate in July was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but flat compared to the previous value. Due to the continued recovery of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, Germany, and France in July, the ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of England**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August. It continued to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of UK government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025 and may slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction later. The UK's CPI (core CPI) annual rate in June was 3.6% (3.7%), and the GDP monthly rate was 0.4%, both higher than expected and the previous value. The manufacturing (service) PMI in July was 48.2 (51.2), higher (lower) than expected and the previous value. The Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of Japan**: The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start reducing the quarterly Treasury bond purchase scale from 400 billion to 200 billion yen in April 2026. Japan's (Tokyo) core CPI annual rate in June (July) was 3.3% (2.9%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The GDP quarterly rate in the second quarter was 0.3%, higher than expected. With the US Treasury Secretary urging the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, the Bank of Japan still has the possibility of raising rates before the end of 2025, with the earliest possible time being October [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Investors are advised to wait for price drops to build long positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,200 - 3,300 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,400 - 3,500 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 760 - 770 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 34 - 36 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 37 - 40 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ten - grams and the resistance level around 9,100 - 9,500 yuan/ten - grams [1].