摩根士丹利预计，包括谷歌、亚马逊、Meta、微软和CoreWeave在内的科技巨头，今年将在人工智能基 础设施上投入4000亿美元。而这场AI繁荣，又恰逢传统数据中心和个人电脑迎来新的更新换代周期。 分析师指出，加上手机销量超预期，这共同加剧了非HBM内存芯片的供应紧张，并推高了其价格。 据悉，RAM以4GB DDR4X为例，颗粒现货市场从今年初最低7美元/颗涨到11月中旬的30美元/颗以上， 上涨3—4倍;闪存以64G eMMC为例，从年初的3.2美元/颗上涨到近期的8美元/颗以上，涨幅接近1.5倍。 另外，随着海外AI服务器对eSSD的需求增加，NAND闪存也紧跟DRAM颗粒之后开始大幅涨价。 智通财经获悉，法国巴黎银行表示，随着人工智能(AI)推动内存行业进入"历史性上升周期"，美光科技 (MU.US)和Sandisk(SNDK.US)有望持续受益。该行分析师卡尔·阿克曼(Karl Ackerman)在客户报告中表 示："随着消费级DRAM和NAND TLC现货价格在11月同比分别上涨408%和165%，我们相信DRAM和 NAND正步入可能贯穿2026年的历史性上升周期。我们继续看好内存和存储供应链， ...

来自中国竞争对手的成熟芯片竞争日益激烈，也促使控制着全球约70%的DRAM芯片市场的三星和SK 海力士这两家公司加速向高端芯片转移。这些厂商自2025年初起便陆续调整战略，逐步减少乃至计划在 2025年底至2026年初完全停止DDR4内存颗粒的生产，将产能全面转向利润更高、技术更先进的 DDR5、HBM等产品。 摩根士丹利预计，包括谷歌、亚马逊、Meta、微软和CoreWeave在内的科技巨头，今年将在人工智能基 础设施上投入4000亿美元。而这场AI繁荣，又恰逢传统数据中心和个人电脑迎来新的更新换代周期。 分析师指出，加上手机销量超预期，这共同加剧了非HBM内存芯片的供应紧张，并推高了其价格。 阿克曼解释道："自1999年以来，DRAM的平均上升周期持续8个月，平均售价从低谷到高峰上涨53%， 而NAND的平均上升周期通常持续6个月，平均售价上涨40%。当前DRAM上升周期已进入第5个月，平 均售价较谷底上涨55%;NAND上升周期进入第4个月，平均售价较谷底上涨51%。然而，我们预计本轮 上升周期对DRAM和NAND都将更具持续性。我们观察到巨大的现货/合约价差：DDR4为45%，DDR5 为89%，25 ...

智通财经APP获悉，法国巴黎银行表示，随着人工智能(AI)推动内存行业进入"历史性上升周期"，美光 科技(MU.US)和Sandisk(SNDK.US)有望持续受益。该行分析师卡尔·阿克曼(Karl Ackerman)在客户报告 中表示："随着消费级DRAM和NAND TLC现货价格在11月同比分别上涨408%和165%，我们相信 DRAM和NAND正步入可能贯穿2026年的历史性上升周期。我们继续看好内存和存储供应链，不过数据 中心业务占比较高的公司表现会更好。" 来自中国竞争对手的成熟芯片竞争日益激烈，也促使控制着全球约70%的DRAM芯片市场的三星和SK 海力士这两家公司加速向高端芯片转移。这些厂商自2025年初起便陆续调整战略，逐步减少乃至计划在 2025年底至2026年初完全停止DDR4内存颗粒的生产，将产能全面转向利润更高、技术更先进的 DDR5、HBM等产品。 摩根士丹利预计，包括谷歌、亚马逊、Meta、微软和CoreWeave在内的科技巨头，今年将在人工智能基 础设施上投入4000亿美元。而这场AI繁荣，又恰逢传统数据中心和个人电脑迎来新的更新换代周期。 分析师指出，加上手机销量超预期，这共同 ...

（来源：普华有策） DDR5压境，中国存储如何打赢DDR4"农村包围城市"？ 1、DDR4内存颗粒行业概述 DDR4内存颗粒是符合JEDEC（固态技术协会）DDR4标准的动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片，是第四代双倍数据速率同步DRAM的核心物理组件。 它作为计算机、服务器及各类电子设备中暂存数据与程序指令的关键硬件，其性能（如频率、容量、功耗）直接决定了系统运行效率。在产业链中，内存 颗粒处于中游制造环节，经封装测试后成为内存模组，最终应用于PC、服务器、工业控制、汽车电子等领域，是计算机系统中临时存储数据的关键组 件。 2、DDR4内存颗粒行业产业链分析及影响 行业产业链分析 资料来源：普华有策 （1）上游环节的影响 DDR4内存颗粒的上游主要包括硅片、光刻胶、特种气体、靶材等半导体材料和光刻机、刻蚀机等设备。该环节技术壁垒极高，目前由日本、美国、荷兰 等国的信越化学、应用材料、ASML少数企业主导，呈现寡头垄断格局。上游的材料供应稳定性、价格波动以及先进设备的可获得性，直接制约着中游制 造商的产能扩张、技术升级和成本控制。因此，上游的自主可控是保障中国DDR4产业安全与竞争力的根本前提，也是当前政策扶 ...

Core Insights - The memory chip prices are expected to surge in 2025, with DDR4 prices more than doubling, as demand increases due to the AI chip manufacturing boom [1][2] - The global memory chip industry is entering what analysts describe as a "super cycle," driven by tight supply and increased demand from various sectors [1][2] - Major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix are shifting production towards higher-margin products like DDR5 and HBM chips, reducing their focus on DDR4 [2][9] Industry Trends - The demand for DRAM chips has surged, with reports indicating that the average inventory cycle for DRAM chips has dropped to eight weeks, significantly lower than previous periods [6][8] - The average price of DDR5 server memory modules has skyrocketed, indicating a shift in market dynamics favoring memory manufacturers [3][9] - The AI infrastructure investments by major tech companies are projected to reach $400 billion this year, further fueling demand for memory chips [2][9] Company Performance - Memory chip manufacturers are experiencing significant profit margins, with Samsung's DRAM business operating at a 40% profit margin and HBM at 60% [9] - The stock prices of memory manufacturers have seen substantial increases, with Samsung's stock rising over 80%, and SK Hynix and Micron's stocks increasing by 170% and 140%, respectively [9][10] - The current shortage of memory chips is leading to price hikes in consumer electronics, with companies like Raspberry Pi announcing price increases due to rising memory costs [9][10]

Market Overview - The stock market experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext Index leading the gains, closing up 0.69% at 3046.68 points [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1% to 3916.1 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.15% [1] Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the importance of smart connected vehicles in promoting new industrialization and sustainable development [3] - The smartphone market in mainland China saw a year-on-year decline of 3% in Q3, with Vivo leading the market with a shipment of 11.8 million units, capturing 18% market share [3] Sector Performance - The storage chip sector showed strong momentum, with significant gains in stocks such as Demingli and Bawei Storage, which saw increases of over 10% [3][4] - The first wave of price increases in the storage market began in April, with major companies like Samsung and SK Hynix reducing DDR4 production to focus on higher-end memory types [4] Company Highlights - **Shannon Semiconductor**: Expanded upstream supply channels and obtained AMD distributor qualification, enhancing customer stickiness and competitiveness [7] - **Kepu Cloud**: As a leader in AI digitalization, the company is expected to see performance growth due to its acquisition of Jintai Technology and the favorable conditions in the storage chip industry [8] - **Bawei Storage**: Focuses on the semiconductor storage industry chain, developing storage solutions and advanced packaging, creating a differentiated competitive advantage [8] - **Jiangbolong**: A leader in the domestic storage module industry, actively enhancing its competitive edge through TCM and PTM models [9]