传媒 2025 年 07 月 13 日 腾讯控股 (00700) ——25Q2 前瞻：延续高质量增长，关注 AI、游戏新品进 展 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 事件： ⚫ 我们预计腾讯 25Q2 实现营业收入 1783 亿元，同比增长 11%；调整后归母净利润 602 亿 元，同比增长 5%。 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（亿元） | 6,090 | 6,603 | 7,311 | 7,955 | 8,465 | | 同比增长率（%） | 9.8 | 8.4 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 6.4 | | 调整后归母净利润（亿元） | 1,577 | 2,227 | 2,507 | 2,813 | 3,093 | | 同比增长率（%） | 36.4 | 41.2 | 12.6 | 12.2 | 10.0 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 16.68 | 24.03 | 27.35 | 30.69 | 33.74 | | 净资产收益率（%） ...

如果说2003 年网络游戏被正式列入国家 863 计划后的十多年，是中国游戏厂商起步发展的十年；那 2015年游戏游艺设备生产和销售解禁、《关于改进移动游戏出版服务管理的通知》与《移动游戏内容管 理规范》宣布发布，则是中国游戏产业全面崛起的又一里程碑式节点。 在2015年后的十年间，中国游戏产业年营收经历了从1407亿元到3257亿元的翻倍增长，移动游戏大发 展、游戏出海开疆拓土、经典IP的文化与商业价值塑造，均可在2015年找到增长加速的原始动力。 在这样的背景下，南方财经全媒体集团数字娱乐课题组策划"中国游戏产业10年纪事"专题，从游戏出 海、产业趋势、企业成长、长青产品、明星游戏人等多个维度，总览中国游戏产业在十年间的发展历 程，展现中国游戏公司与从业者的专业能力、市场潜力和文化创造力，探讨产业在下一个10年的发展路 径。 编者按： 在本专题的首篇——出海篇，我们聚焦国产游戏如何在出海浪潮和自我升级的推动下，取得全球市场成 功，并探讨在市场格局趋于固化的大背景下，游戏出海如何实现长线运营，形成更稳定可持续的商业价 值与影响力。 南方财经记者 吴立洋 上海报道 2025年，有望成为中国游戏出海深入践行长期 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's Q1 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with significant growth in gaming and advertising revenues, and a strong performance in financial technology and enterprise services [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent achieved operating revenue of 180 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 3% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders reached 61.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 22% year-on-year growth, also exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3% [1] - The company has repurchased 21 billion HKD worth of shares as of May 14, 2025, with a commitment to repurchase no less than 80 billion HKD for the year [1] Group 2: Gaming Sector - Q1 2025 saw record highs in both domestic and international gaming revenues, with a 17% year-on-year increase in value-added services revenue [1] - Domestic game revenue reached over 40 billion yuan for the first time in a single quarter, with notable performances from long-standing titles such as "Honor of Kings" and "Crossfire Mobile" [1] - New game releases, including "Delta Force" and "Operation Delta," contributed to growth, with "Operation Delta" achieving over 12 million daily active users in April [1] Group 3: Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenue grew by 20% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with video accounts and search services driving this growth [2] - The advertising platform's AI capabilities, including image generation and digital human live streaming, are beginning to show positive effects [2] - Video account advertising revenue has seen over 60% year-on-year growth for three consecutive quarters, indicating strong performance [2] Group 4: Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 5% year-on-year, meeting expectations, with financial technology showing low single-digit growth [2] - The gross margin for financial technology and enterprise services reached a historical high of 50.3%, driven by improvements in payment and cloud business profitability [2] - AI-related revenue in the cloud business is growing rapidly, contributing to the overall performance of the financial technology and enterprise services segment [2] Group 5: Strategic Investments in AI - Tencent's capital expenditure for Q1 2025 was 27.5 billion yuan, nearly doubling year-on-year, representing 15% of revenue [3] - Research and development expenses increased by 21% year-on-year to 18.9 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing investments in AI [3] - The company continues to enhance AI functionalities within WeChat, aiming for further improvements in user experience and service capabilities [3] Group 6: Future Outlook - The adjusted net profit forecasts for Tencent for 2025-2027 have been raised to 252.8 billion, 283.7 billion, and 311.4 billion yuan respectively [3] - The target price based on the SOTP valuation method is set at 694 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 33% [3]