证券研究报告|传媒 [Table_Title] 2025 年游戏市场收入与用户规模达新高 点，移动端市场仍占主导地位 [Table_ReportType] ——传媒行业快评报告[Table_ReportDate] [行业Table_Summary] 事件： 2025 年 12 月 19 日，2025 年度中国游戏产业年会举办，会上对外发 布《2025 年中国游戏产业报告》。 投资要点： 国内游戏市场 2025 年市场收入与用户规模达新高点。2025 年，国 内游戏市场实际销售收入 3507.89 亿元，同比增长 7.68%，用户规模 6.83 亿，同比增长 1.35%，两者保持连续增长态势，同为历史新高 点。主要原因在于：一是移动游戏品质提升，新品市场表现出色；二 是多款头部长青游戏创新玩法、优化运营；三是小程序游戏增长强 劲；四是产品多端互通，玩家数量得以扩张。 从细分市场来看： （1）移动端市场仍占主导地位，长青产品及新产品共同发力带动规 模实现新突破。2025 年，国内移动游戏市场实销收入 2570.76 亿元， 同比增长 7.92%，规模又有新突破，占总体市场规模 72.39%。主要 由于《王者荣耀》 ...

Group 1 - The COP30 conference in Brazil resulted in the "Belém Package," which revitalizes global climate governance and highlights the active participation of the younger generation in climate issues [1] - Young representatives actively engaged in the conference through various forms, showcasing their commitment to climate action [1] - Chinese companies are innovating ways to engage with the younger generation, transforming climate governance goals into tangible daily practices through gamification and carbon-inclusive mechanisms [1] Group 2 - Tencent showcased how digital technology, particularly gaming, can empower climate change response and environmental protection at COP30 [2] - The overseas version of "Honor of Kings" purchased and redeemed 28,000 tons of carbon credits from four major ecological protection areas globally [2] - Other Chinese gaming companies are also developing systematic educational programs, such as the SDG Hero project, which helps youth learn about the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals through gamified tools [2][3] Group 3 - The gamification approach effectively reduces communication barriers and engages youth in climate education [3] - Over 98% of youth participants expressed willingness to engage in gamified educational activities again, indicating a positive impact on their behavior and self-esteem [3] - Despite challenges in cross-cultural communication, Chinese companies are making significant strides in climate education through gaming [3] Group 4 - Chinese companies are demonstrating innovative practices to encourage public participation in climate action, as seen in the release of the "2025 Carbon Inclusive Development White Paper" during COP30 [4] - The white paper outlines various global carbon inclusive models, highlighting the unique characteristics of different regions [5] - Public awareness of carbon inclusivity in China exceeds 92%, with 90% of respondents indicating green travel as a common practice [5] Group 5 - The carbon inclusive model has been successfully implemented by companies like Neng Chain Smart Electric, which has covered over 1.2 million users and achieved a cumulative carbon reduction of over 3 million tons [5] - The first successful transaction of personal carbon inclusive value occurred at the Hubei carbon emission trading center, involving 1,962 tons of carbon reduction valued at approximately 60,000 yuan [5] - The "Carbon Inclusive+" trend is emerging, integrating carbon inclusivity with biodiversity protection and other sectors [5][6]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Earth has crossed its first climate tipping point, prompting a shift in global climate governance towards actionable measures [1] - Tencent, representing Chinese tech firms, showcased multiple digital innovations at COP 30 aimed at addressing information barriers in the low-carbon sector [1][10] - The UNSH platform, developed in collaboration with Tencent, aims to facilitate the implementation of the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda by breaking down information silos [2][4] Group 1: Tencent's Digital Innovations - Tencent introduced "Carbon LIVE" as a core component of its digital solutions, which includes various applications like UNSH, CTS, and "Green Africa" platform [1][7] - The UNSH platform is designed to connect policy, technology, and finance, providing a free global resource to accelerate climate action [4][6] - The CTS project, leveraging Tencent's digital capabilities, allows users to easily search and access nearly 20,000 low-carbon technologies from trusted sources [7] Group 2: Climate Action and Public Engagement - Tencent is utilizing esports and gaming to raise awareness about climate issues among younger audiences, showcasing innovative game designs at COP 30 [10][11] - The company has initiated various public engagement activities, such as the "Glacier Protector" campaign within its gaming ecosystem, to promote climate action [10][11] - Tencent's efforts aim to transform virtual interactions into real-world climate action, emphasizing the importance of public awareness in addressing climate challenges [11]

Core Viewpoint - The integration of WeChat's video account live e-commerce team into the WeChat Open Platform has not led to the expected growth, with WeChat e-commerce remaining stagnant compared to major competitors like Taobao, JD, Pinduoduo, and Douyin [1][2][3] Group 1: Current Performance and Market Position - WeChat e-commerce is described as "not warm, not hot," with significant gaps in scale and importance compared to leading e-commerce platforms [1][2] - Despite the management's emphasis on e-commerce growth, the actual performance metrics remain unimpressive, lacking specific growth figures in financial reports [2][3] - The competitive landscape in 2025 is deemed favorable for WeChat e-commerce, yet it has failed to capitalize on this opportunity [3][4] Group 2: Internal Challenges and Management Issues - The WeChat team has been criticized for its operational inefficiencies and lack of execution, which are seen as the primary reasons for the underperformance of WeChat e-commerce [6][7] - There is a suggestion that the WeChat team has become complacent, relying too heavily on product features rather than robust operational strategies [6][7] - The historical success of WeChat in other areas is attributed to external partnerships rather than internal execution, indicating a potential misalignment in strategy for e-commerce [7][8] Group 3: Future Directions and Strategic Considerations - The article posits that if the current team cannot effectively manage e-commerce, a new team may need to be established, although this could disrupt existing power dynamics within the company [7][8] - There is a consideration of shifting focus from building a closed e-commerce loop to directing traffic to traditional e-commerce platforms, which may align better with current capabilities [8] - The overarching message emphasizes that success in e-commerce requires the right team and operational focus, rather than relying solely on established platforms and past successes [8]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's existing businesses are gradually emerging from operational cycle lows, with key games returning to healthy growth and advertising efficiency improving through integration with various platforms [1][5] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent's 1Q25 revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, reaching 180 billion, exceeding expectations by 2.5% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit for 1Q25 was 61.3 billion, up 22% year-on-year, surpassing expectations by 3% [1] Group 2: Gaming Business - Tencent's gaming strategy has shifted to focus on evergreen games and new game reserves, leading to a positive outlook for growth [2] - Key games like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" have shown recovery in DAU/MAU metrics, with revenue growth expected to improve in 2025 [2] - AI integration in gaming is expected to enhance content production cycles and interactivity, contributing to revenue growth [2] Group 3: Advertising Business - Advertising revenue grew by 20% in 1Q25, significantly outpacing industry averages, driven by video accounts and mini-programs [3] - AI applications in advertising are enhancing return on investment, with expectations for continued growth in 2025 [3] Group 4: Financial Technology and Cloud Services - Financial technology services showed low single-digit growth, primarily driven by loans and wealth management, while payment services faced challenges [4] - Cloud services are undergoing restructuring, focusing on profitability and optimizing gross margins, with AI capabilities expected to enhance service offerings [4]

Group 1: Company Performance - Tencent's gaming business achieved a revenue of 59.5 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with domestic market revenue at 42.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%, and international market revenue at 16.6 billion yuan, a growth of 23% [1] - NetEase reported a net revenue of 28.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with gaming and related value-added services contributing 24 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [1] - Both Tencent and NetEase's classic IPs have been crucial in driving stable growth in their gaming businesses, with Tencent's "Honor of Kings" and "Crossfire Mobile" achieving record-high revenue in Q1 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The mobile gaming industry is entering a new growth phase, with industry leaders focusing on long-term value rather than short-term gains [2][3] - A report by Moloco indicates that while overall app installation volume decreased by 0.2% over the past year, the paid user conversion rate for top apps increased by 6% [2] - High-value users, representing only 0.02% of global installations on the iOS platform, contributed 20% of total revenue for global iOS and Android games [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [4] Core Views - The company has exceeded revenue and profit expectations, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 1800.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 1756.0 billion yuan. Non-IFRS net profit was 613.3 billion yuan, up 22.0% year-on-year, also exceeding expectations [2][14] - AI is making substantial contributions to the gaming and advertising industries, enhancing product differentiation and driving revenue growth [3][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 1800.2 billion yuan, up 12.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [2][14] - Non-IFRS net profit for Q1 2025 was 613.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.0%, also above consensus estimates [2][14] Gaming Business - Online gaming revenue reached 595 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 23.7% year-on-year increase, surpassing expectations [20] - Domestic gaming revenue was 429 billion yuan, up 24.3% year-on-year, while international gaming revenue was 166 billion yuan, up 22.1% year-on-year [21] Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenue for Q1 2025 was 319 billion yuan, a 20.4% year-on-year increase, exceeding expectations [24] - The growth in advertising revenue is attributed to increased user engagement, AI upgrades, and optimization of the WeChat ecosystem [24] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue was 549 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 5.0% year-on-year increase, slightly below expectations [28] - The growth in financial technology is driven by consumer loan services and wealth management services [28] Profitability Metrics - Overall gross margin for Q1 2025 was 56%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by high-margin revenue sources [33] - The gross margin for value-added services was 60%, reflecting growth in both domestic and international gaming revenue [33] Future Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 2441 billion yuan, 2693 billion yuan, and 2984 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 16, and 14 times [4][43]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q1 2025 financial results, with total revenue of 180 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 13%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 3% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit reached 61.3 billion yuan, up 22% year-over-year, also surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 3% [1] Group 1: Gaming Business - Domestic and international gaming revenues exceeded expectations, with a record revenue growth of 24% year-over-year, totaling 59.5 billion yuan [1] - The domestic gaming market showed high growth, with revenue of 42.9 billion yuan, a 24% increase year-over-year, surpassing expectations by 7% [1] - Key games like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" achieved historical highs in revenue, while new game "Delta Force" showed strong user growth [1] Group 2: International Market - International gaming revenue reached 16.6 billion yuan, growing 23% year-over-year, exceeding expectations by 8% [2] - The growth was driven by Supercell's ongoing revenue increase and stable performance from existing products like PUBG Mobile and COD Mobile [2] - The company expects a similar revenue growth rate for the entire year of 2025, with a projected year-over-year increase of 10% [2] Group 3: Social Networking and Marketing Services - Social networking revenue was 32.6 billion yuan, a 7% year-over-year increase, meeting expectations [2] - Marketing services revenue reached 31.9 billion yuan, up 20% year-over-year, exceeding expectations by 3% due to increased user engagement and AI-driven advertising solutions [2] Group 4: Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services was 54.9 billion yuan, a 5% year-over-year increase, in line with expectations [3] - The growth was driven by improvements in cloud services and e-commerce transaction fees, with AI beginning to positively impact revenue [3] Group 5: Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure (CAPEX) reached 23 billion yuan, a 60% year-over-year increase, accounting for 13% of revenue [3] - The high CAPEX is aligned with previous guidance and reflects the company's focus on optimizing cash flow through AI infrastructure investments [3] Group 6: AI Developments - The company released an upgraded image generation model, enhancing the speed and quality of generated content for advertising [4] - Ongoing updates in application scenarios are being explored, particularly in integrating AI features into existing platforms like WeChat [4] Group 7: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to 728.6 billion, 784.5 billion, and 835.6 billion yuan, reflecting year-over-year growth of 10%, 8%, and 7% respectively [5] - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 256 billion, 288.6 billion, and 313.1 billion yuan, with expected year-over-year growth of 15%, 13%, and 9% [5] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating with a target price range of 545.69 to 606.33 Hong Kong dollars based on projected earnings [5]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a slight fluctuation but maintained an upward trend during the week of May 12-16, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,345.05 points, up 2.09% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,281.34 points, up 1.95%, and the China Enterprises Index closed at 8,468.29 points, up 1.92% [1] Investment Insights - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors such as AI computing and semiconductor equipment, which are seen as having significant long-term potential [1] - The performance of internet leading companies during their earnings announcements is expected to catalyze stock price increases [1] - Investors are advised to pay attention to the liquidity of the Hong Kong dollar and adjustments in real estate policies, which may lead to valuation recovery in local banks, utilities, and real estate stocks [1] Company Highlights - NIO's IPO in Hong Kong is set for May 20, with a subscription rate exceeding 120 times and total subscription amount surpassing 280 billion HKD, marking it as the largest A+H share project of the year [3] - The IPO price range is set at 263 HKD per share, with cornerstone investors including Sinopec and Hillhouse Capital [3] - Approximately 90% of the funds raised will be allocated to the construction of a battery factory in Hungary, part of NIO's global strategy [3][4] Financial Performance - Tencent reported a 13% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, reaching 180 billion CNY, with adjusted net profit growing by 22% to 61.3 billion CNY [7] - The growth in Tencent's performance is attributed to the ongoing AI strategy and stable growth in its gaming business [7][8] - Tencent's capital expenditure for Q1 2025 reached 27.48 billion CNY, a 91% increase year-on-year, reflecting significant investment in AI capabilities [8] Consumer Sector - Green Tea Group's IPO on May 16 saw its stock price drop by 5.56% on the first day, closing at 6.79 HKD per share [5] - Despite a strong oversubscription of 317.54 times, the stock's performance indicates investor caution, likely due to the desire to liquidate positions quickly [5][6] - Green Tea Group plans to expand its restaurant network significantly, with a target of adding 150-213 new stores annually over the next three years [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [6] Core Views - Tencent's Q1 2025 results exceeded expectations, driven by strong performance in gaming and advertising, supporting long-term AI investments [1] - The company is expected to leverage high-quality growth from existing businesses to enhance AI investments [1] Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was 180 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13% - Gross profit reached 100.5 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 55.8%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year - Non-IFRS operating profit was 69.3 billion RMB, an 18% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted operating margin of 38.5% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit was 61.3 billion RMB, a 22% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net margin of 34.1%, up 3 percentage points [1] Business Segments Value-Added Services - Revenue from value-added services was 92.1 billion RMB, a 17% year-on-year increase - Domestic gaming revenue was 42.9 billion RMB, up 24% year-on-year, with significant contributions from long-standing games [2] - International gaming revenue was 16.6 billion RMB, a 23% increase year-on-year, driven by popular titles [2] - Social network revenue was 32.6 billion RMB, a 7% increase year-on-year, with music subscription revenue growing by 17% [2] Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue was 31.9 billion RMB, a 20% year-on-year increase, benefiting from enhanced user engagement and AI upgrades [3] - Significant growth in WeChat's marketing services, particularly from video accounts and mini-programs [3] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services was 54.9 billion RMB, a 5% year-on-year increase, with notable growth in cloud services and AI-related income [4] Financial Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 735.9 billion RMB, 803.3 billion RMB, and 878.2 billion RMB respectively - Non-IFRS net profits for the same years are expected to be 260 billion RMB, 280.9 billion RMB, and 309.2 billion RMB respectively [4][5]