文 | 互联网怪盗团 那么，会不会是天时地利不够好，竞争环境限制了微信电商崛起呢？答案也是否定的，2025年的市场环 境可能是近年来最适合微信电商起势的。越来越多的商家意识到，抖音电商更适合"冲量"而非"留量"， 尤其是达人直播往往需要破价；至于抖音最近发展的货架电商，还是更适合于有较强内容经验、或者自 带流量的品牌商家。总而言之，对广大中小商家而言，抖音电商是一剂强力猛药，确实有效但不适合天 天吃。至于快手，虽然在私域方面略强一些，但是体量要小一些，而且用户画像覆盖不及抖音和视频号 全面。至于其他内容平台，普遍已经放弃做电商闭环的野心，或者将重点从电商闭环转向第三方导流。 不止一个商家告诉我，他们非常有兴趣在视频号碰碰运气，希望视频号电商成为"下一个抖音电商"。如 果真能做到，哪怕做到一半，那他们真要弹冠相庆了！现实却是，连一小半都做不到；去年没做到，今 年照样还没做到。当然，商家仍然对视频号电商寄予厚望，就像2020年、2021年、2022年、2023年以及 2024年一样。这让我想起了高中时代，每个学期评选"进步最快同学"，获奖的总是那么几个人。为什么 他们一直在进步，却一直没有进入优秀学生之列，二十多 ...

我国游戏市场近年来保持稳健增长。2024年，国内游戏市场实际销售收入、游戏用户规模均创历史新 高。根据行业研究机构伽马数据发布的数据，今年前5月，国内游戏市场销售收入达1411亿元，同比仍 保持快速增长。 快速增长的同时，游戏市场也出现了新趋势。多家机构发布的数据显示，一些老牌游戏通过推陈出新， 始终占据各大游戏流水榜前列，并成为游戏公司收入的"稳定器"。而不断延长经典老产品的生命周期， 实现"细水长流"，成为游戏公司的重要运营策略。 老产品表现强劲 2024年，A股游戏公司世纪华通以226.2亿元收入，继续位居A股游戏公司收入榜首位。相较2023年，世 纪华通营业收入增幅超过70%，扣非净利润增幅达290%。 世纪华通的高速增长，除了受表现亮眼的海外市场和新产品推动外，老产品的稳健运营也是关键。在 2024年年报里，世纪华通提到，《冒险岛》、《热血传奇》新百区、《彩虹岛》、《龙之谷》怀旧服等 多个项目表现出色，从增量及总量上均为公司营收作出重大贡献。 游戏市场迭代迅速，尤其是移动游戏市场竞争激烈。新产品层出不穷，老产品随时面临淘汰风险，游戏 企业的"生命周期焦虑"普遍存在。但从流水榜来看，如今排名前列的"熟 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's existing businesses are gradually emerging from operational cycle lows, with key games returning to healthy growth and advertising efficiency improving through integration with various platforms [1][5] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent's 1Q25 revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, reaching 180 billion, exceeding expectations by 2.5% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit for 1Q25 was 61.3 billion, up 22% year-on-year, surpassing expectations by 3% [1] Group 2: Gaming Business - Tencent's gaming strategy has shifted to focus on evergreen games and new game reserves, leading to a positive outlook for growth [2] - Key games like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" have shown recovery in DAU/MAU metrics, with revenue growth expected to improve in 2025 [2] - AI integration in gaming is expected to enhance content production cycles and interactivity, contributing to revenue growth [2] Group 3: Advertising Business - Advertising revenue grew by 20% in 1Q25, significantly outpacing industry averages, driven by video accounts and mini-programs [3] - AI applications in advertising are enhancing return on investment, with expectations for continued growth in 2025 [3] Group 4: Financial Technology and Cloud Services - Financial technology services showed low single-digit growth, primarily driven by loans and wealth management, while payment services faced challenges [4] - Cloud services are undergoing restructuring, focusing on profitability and optimizing gross margins, with AI capabilities expected to enhance service offerings [4]

近期，包括腾讯、网易等游戏大厂一季度财报出炉，其游戏业务均获得双位数增长。 5月14日，腾讯公布2025年第一季度业绩。财报数据显示，腾讯游戏业务第一季度实现收入共计595亿 元，其中本土市场游戏收入为人民币429亿元，较去年同期的低基数同比增长24%；国际市场游戏收入 为人民币166亿元，同比增长23%。 营销解决方案机构Moloco近期发布的《2025年移动游戏发展报告：头部App的应用内购买趋势》分析 称，移动游戏行业已经迈入了新的增长阶段，在经历快速扩张以及近几年的调整后，开发者和App营销 人员开始持续优化变现、用户留存和获取策略，以实现可持续增长。 这份研究报告指出，在安装量稳定的前提下，增长主要依靠提升付费用户转化率和更高的用户终身价值 (LTV)。过去一年，整体应用安装量下降0.2%，但头部App的付费用户转化率增长了6%。与此同时，高 价值用户为移动游戏贡献了主要收入，美国iOS平台的前5%的高价值用户(仅占全球安装量的0.02%)贡 献了全球iOS和Android游戏总收入的20%。 移动游戏行业正逐渐从追求短期体量转向关注长期价值，这就需要更具战略性的用户获取和互动方式， 上述研究报告称 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q1 2025 financial results, with total revenue of 180 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 13%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 3% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit reached 61.3 billion yuan, up 22% year-over-year, also surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 3% [1] Group 1: Gaming Business - Domestic and international gaming revenues exceeded expectations, with a record revenue growth of 24% year-over-year, totaling 59.5 billion yuan [1] - The domestic gaming market showed high growth, with revenue of 42.9 billion yuan, a 24% increase year-over-year, surpassing expectations by 7% [1] - Key games like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" achieved historical highs in revenue, while new game "Delta Force" showed strong user growth [1] Group 2: International Market - International gaming revenue reached 16.6 billion yuan, growing 23% year-over-year, exceeding expectations by 8% [2] - The growth was driven by Supercell's ongoing revenue increase and stable performance from existing products like PUBG Mobile and COD Mobile [2] - The company expects a similar revenue growth rate for the entire year of 2025, with a projected year-over-year increase of 10% [2] Group 3: Social Networking and Marketing Services - Social networking revenue was 32.6 billion yuan, a 7% year-over-year increase, meeting expectations [2] - Marketing services revenue reached 31.9 billion yuan, up 20% year-over-year, exceeding expectations by 3% due to increased user engagement and AI-driven advertising solutions [2] Group 4: Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services was 54.9 billion yuan, a 5% year-over-year increase, in line with expectations [3] - The growth was driven by improvements in cloud services and e-commerce transaction fees, with AI beginning to positively impact revenue [3] Group 5: Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure (CAPEX) reached 23 billion yuan, a 60% year-over-year increase, accounting for 13% of revenue [3] - The high CAPEX is aligned with previous guidance and reflects the company's focus on optimizing cash flow through AI infrastructure investments [3] Group 6: AI Developments - The company released an upgraded image generation model, enhancing the speed and quality of generated content for advertising [4] - Ongoing updates in application scenarios are being explored, particularly in integrating AI features into existing platforms like WeChat [4] Group 7: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to 728.6 billion, 784.5 billion, and 835.6 billion yuan, reflecting year-over-year growth of 10%, 8%, and 7% respectively [5] - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 256 billion, 288.6 billion, and 313.1 billion yuan, with expected year-over-year growth of 15%, 13%, and 9% [5] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating with a target price range of 545.69 to 606.33 Hong Kong dollars based on projected earnings [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [5] Core Views - Tencent's Q1 2025 revenue reached 180 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with a gross margin improvement from 53% to 56% driven by high-margin businesses such as WeChat Video Accounts and local games [1][3] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 61.3 billion RMB, reflecting a 22% year-on-year growth [1][3] - The report projects Tencent's revenue for 2025-2027 to be 735.8 billion, 801.6 billion, and 862.9 billion RMB respectively, with non-GAAP net profits of approximately 256.6 billion, 286.8 billion, and 314.9 billion RMB [3][12] Revenue Breakdown - Value-added services revenue for the quarter was 92.1 billion RMB, up 17% year-on-year, with local game revenue at 42.9 billion RMB, a 24% increase [1][2] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue was 54.9 billion RMB, a 5% increase year-on-year [1] - Advertising revenue reached 31.9 billion RMB, growing 20% year-on-year, primarily driven by strong demand for Video Accounts and Mini Programs [1][2] Business Growth Drivers - The gaming business showed strong growth, with both local and international game revenues exceeding 20% growth, driven by popular titles [2] - Advertising growth was supported by AI-driven technology upgrades, significantly improving ad click-through rates [2] - Tencent's commitment to AI development is evident with a capital expenditure of 27.5 billion RMB and a 21% increase in R&D expenses [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Tencent's total revenue to grow at a CAGR of approximately 10% from 2023 to 2027, with a projected gross margin improvement [12] - Non-GAAP EPS is expected to rise from 16.4 RMB in 2023 to 34.0 RMB by 2027 [4][12] - The report anticipates a decrease in the P/E ratio from 28.6 in 2023 to 13.8 in 2027, indicating potential valuation improvement [4][12]

Industry Trends - In April, Sensor Tower released the global revenue rankings for Chinese mobile games, with Point Cloud Interactive's "Whiteout Survival," Tencent's "PUBG MOBILE," and miHoYo's "Honkai: Star Rail" taking the top three spots [2][4] - Tencent's domestic game revenue reached 42.9 billion yuan, a 24% increase year-on-year, while international game revenue was 16.6 billion yuan, up 23% [5] - NetEase reported a net income of approximately 24 billion yuan for its gaming and related services, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [6] - Chengdu Ghost Face Technology, a company previously invested in by Tencent and Kuaishou, filed for bankruptcy, highlighting challenges faced by small to mid-sized anime game developers [8][9] Company Financials - Tencent's Q1 2025 revenue was 180 billion yuan, a 13% year-on-year increase, with adjusted operating profit rising 18% to 69.3 billion yuan [5] - NetEase's Q1 2025 revenue was 28.8 billion yuan, a 7.4% increase, with net profit at 10.3 billion yuan [6] - Huya reported a total revenue of 1.51 billion yuan for Q1 2025, with game-related services revenue growing 52.1% to 370 million yuan [7] International Market Developments - Ubisoft's annual revenue for the 2024-2025 fiscal year was 1.8992 billion euros (approximately 15.2853 billion yuan), a decline of 17.5% year-on-year [10] - Microsoft announced a 3% workforce reduction across all levels and departments, impacting its gaming divisions including Xbox and Bethesda [11] Strategic Partnerships - Riot Games partnered with cryptocurrency platform Coinbase to become the exclusive crypto exchange and official blockchain technology partner for its esports events [13][14]

21世纪经济报道记者 孙迟悦 实习生 莫林衛 香港报道 上周，港股黄金股涨跌互现。灵宝黄金跌8.90%，山东黄金跌3.18%，招金矿业跌5.42%，紫金矿业走 平，中国黄金国际涨5.24%，潼关黄金涨5.79%，中国白银集团跌5.66%。 宁德时代港股IPO 本周二（5月20日），全球动力电池龙头企业宁德时代将正式在港股主板上市。本次上市是宁德时代在 港的二次上市，也是本年度截至目前上市筹资额最大的"A+H"股项目。 最新数据显示，宁德时代港股公开发售的认购倍数超过120倍，认购金额突破2800亿港元，位居近半年 港股新股冻资榜第三位，仅次于蜜雪集团和布鲁可。 上周（5月12日-5月16日），港股三大指数在经历小幅震荡后，整周仍维持上涨趋势。 截至上周五（5月16日）收市，恒生指数收报23345.05点，周内上涨2.09%；恒生科技指数收报5281.34 点，周内上涨1.95%；国企指数收报8468.29点，周内上涨1.92%。 中泰国际策略分析师颜招骏对21世纪经济报道记者表示，目前港股市场短期承压，但长期潜力依然巨 大。他建议重点关注 AI 算力、半导体设备等自主可控领域。此外，互联网龙头企业正处于业绩公 ...

2025 年 05 月 18 日 网易/网易云音乐/腾讯超预期，阿 里云加速，A 股游戏新品周期+AI 应用逻辑不变 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 产 业 看好 ——互联网传媒周报 证 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 袁伟嘉 A0230519080013 yuanwj@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 黄俊儒 A0230123070011 huangjr@swsresearch.com 张淇元 A0230124080001 zhangqy@swsresearch.com 联系人 林起贤 (8621)23297818× linqx@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's Q1 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with significant growth in gaming and advertising revenues, and a strong performance in financial technology and enterprise services [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent achieved operating revenue of 180 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 3% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders reached 61.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 22% year-on-year growth, also exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3% [1] - The company has repurchased 21 billion HKD worth of shares as of May 14, 2025, with a commitment to repurchase no less than 80 billion HKD for the year [1] Group 2: Gaming Sector - Q1 2025 saw record highs in both domestic and international gaming revenues, with a 17% year-on-year increase in value-added services revenue [1] - Domestic game revenue reached over 40 billion yuan for the first time in a single quarter, with notable performances from long-standing titles such as "Honor of Kings" and "Crossfire Mobile" [1] - New game releases, including "Delta Force" and "Operation Delta," contributed to growth, with "Operation Delta" achieving over 12 million daily active users in April [1] Group 3: Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenue grew by 20% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with video accounts and search services driving this growth [2] - The advertising platform's AI capabilities, including image generation and digital human live streaming, are beginning to show positive effects [2] - Video account advertising revenue has seen over 60% year-on-year growth for three consecutive quarters, indicating strong performance [2] Group 4: Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 5% year-on-year, meeting expectations, with financial technology showing low single-digit growth [2] - The gross margin for financial technology and enterprise services reached a historical high of 50.3%, driven by improvements in payment and cloud business profitability [2] - AI-related revenue in the cloud business is growing rapidly, contributing to the overall performance of the financial technology and enterprise services segment [2] Group 5: Strategic Investments in AI - Tencent's capital expenditure for Q1 2025 was 27.5 billion yuan, nearly doubling year-on-year, representing 15% of revenue [3] - Research and development expenses increased by 21% year-on-year to 18.9 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing investments in AI [3] - The company continues to enhance AI functionalities within WeChat, aiming for further improvements in user experience and service capabilities [3] Group 6: Future Outlook - The adjusted net profit forecasts for Tencent for 2025-2027 have been raised to 252.8 billion, 283.7 billion, and 311.4 billion yuan respectively [3] - The target price based on the SOTP valuation method is set at 694 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 33% [3]