据追风交易台，摩根士丹利分析师Adam Wood团队1月25日发布报告认为，尽管生成式人工智能 （GenAI）带来的担忧持续笼罩市场，导致投资者情绪脆弱，但预计核心软件公司仍将报告稳健的第四 季度数据。该行预计，企业将发布符合预期的2026财年指引，管理层也将传递出自信的信号，但这是否 足以在短期内为股价构筑底部仍有待观察。 在欧洲软件股经历急剧抛售、板块普遍陷入价格疲软的背景下，市场正急切寻找能够稳定情绪的"定海 神针"。摩根士丹利指出，随着2025年第四季度财报季的开启，欧洲最大的软件公司SAP能否在周四交 出一份令人满意的答卷，将成为本周市场关注的焦点。 支付板块：增长加速与转型阵痛并存 在软件服务之外，支付板块的业绩预告也揭示了市场的选股逻辑：增长加速是重估的关键。摩根士丹利 指出，Wise本周公布的2026财年第三季度业绩超出预期，证明了收入增长加速可以推动欧洲金融科技 股在短期内实现正向重估。 基于这一逻辑，摩根士丹利在即将到来的财报中看好Adyen。该行认为Adyen属于具备加速增长潜力的 结构性赢家，维持"超配"评级，目标价1925欧元。 相比之下，处于转型期的Worldline则被列为"低配 ...

Core Insights - The hybrid cloud strategy is expected to drive interest in specialized AI cloud services and emerging cloud providers that can support the expanding demands of AI workloads [2] - Emerging cloud providers' revenue is projected to grow by 205% year-over-year in Q2 2025, with annual revenue expected to exceed $23 billion [2] - By 2030, the revenue for emerging cloud providers is forecasted to reach nearly $180 billion, with an annual growth rate of 69% [2][7] Market Dynamics - The specialized AI cloud services segment will face intense competition by 2026, requiring emerging providers to intensify efforts to penetrate the enterprise buyer market [2] - Over 80% of enterprise cloud buyers are looking to modernize their cloud strategies, indicating a shift in purchasing preferences [2] - Emerging cloud providers can compete with large cloud service providers through aggressive pricing strategies and simplified services [2] Competitive Landscape - CoreWeave is identified as a leading competitor among emerging cloud providers, with significant contracts from major clients like Microsoft and OpenAI [4] - Microsoft has invested billions in CoreWeave's computing resources, while OpenAI has signed contracts exceeding $22 billion with the provider [4] - Other emerging cloud providers such as Vultr, FluidStack, and DataCrunch are also meeting the growing demand for AI infrastructure [4] Client Preferences - Clients engaged in AI-intensive tasks are increasingly willing to explore alternatives beyond existing cloud providers due to the high importance and cost of their work [5] - Emerging cloud providers are seen as attractive alternatives due to their value propositions, which sometimes include pricing advantages [4][5] Future Challenges - The emerging cloud market faces survival challenges as it approaches 2026, with growth dependent on enterprise market adoption [6] - To achieve broader adoption, emerging cloud providers need to adjust their marketing and distribution strategies, create more out-of-the-box functionalities, and customize service level agreements for critical business applications [6]

Financial Performance - Lenovo Group reported a revenue of 498.5 billion yuan for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.5% and a net profit increase of 36% to 10.4 billion yuan [2] - The revenue from non-PC businesses increased by nearly 5 percentage points, reaching 47% of total revenue [2] - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) achieved double-digit revenue growth, with a 13% year-on-year increase in the fourth quarter [2] Market Position and Trends - Lenovo's PC business accounted for 23.7% of the market share, widening the gap with the second competitor by 3.6 percentage points [2] - AI PCs represented 16% of total notebook sales in the Chinese market, with IDC forecasting a 4% year-on-year growth in PC shipments for 2025, driven by AI PC demand [2] Infrastructure and Services Growth - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) generated 104.8 billion yuan in revenue, with a 63% year-on-year increase in the fourth quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter of profitability [3] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) also saw double-digit revenue growth, with a nearly 20% increase in the fourth quarter and an operating profit margin exceeding 21% [3] Global Operations and Supply Chain - Lenovo has established an end-to-end global operational system, with over 30 manufacturing bases across 11 markets, enhancing its supply chain capabilities [4] - The company has adopted a "China + N" manufacturing strategy to leverage cost advantages while meeting local customer demands and mitigating high tariff barriers [4] Future Outlook - Lenovo's CEO expressed confidence in the potential for improved US-China trade relations, which could provide greater certainty for global businesses [4]

隔夜，一份揭示算力市场巨变的报告带崩美国AI概念股。 3月26日，TD证券旗下TD Cowen发布报告称，微软放弃在美欧合计耗电2GW的新数据中心项目，将此归因为计算机集群供应过剩。 受此影响，美股芯片股跌幅扩大，费城半导体指数收跌约3.3%，英伟达收跌超5.7%，领跌科技七巨头，AI概念股普跌，超微电脑收跌近8.9%。 TD Cowen通过渠道调查发现，微软数据中心租赁取消和延期情况比预期更为普遍，不仅包括美国，还扩展到欧洲市场。然而，谷歌和Meta迅速填补空缺，数 据中心总需求同比仍在增长。与此同时，超算架构正向更高密度转型，导致设备订单短期放缓，这对设备供应商构成挑战。 此前2月24日，TD Cowen的相关报告就引发市场高度关注，令投资者感到不安。报告称，微软已经取消了与多个私营数据中心运营商的数项租赁协议，涉及功 率总计数百兆瓦。 这些举动表明，微软可能正处于数据中心"供应过剩"的局面。 下图为TD Cowen两次报告后英伟达股价走势： Open AI 有潜力在中长期内开始自行建设数据中心 报告指出，OpenAI正越来越多地寻求直接从第三方(包括GPU即服务提供商和第三方数据中心运营商)获取数据中心 ...