Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The industry is witnessing a threefold evolution in overseas large models, focusing on reasoning foundation, action implementation, and ecological reconstruction, with major players like Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and OpenClaw leading the charge [7] - Domestic large model companies are breaking through through open-source foundations, efficiency optimization, and collaborative agent ecosystems, with firms like Z.ai, MiniMax, Kimi, Alibaba, and ByteDance showcasing diverse strategies [7] - The industry trend indicates a shift from generation to action, with competition centering on supply efficiency and ecological reconstruction, emphasizing task complexity and ROI as key growth drivers [7] Summary by Sections Overseas Large Model Evolution - Anthropic has completed a dual-version model iteration, focusing on enterprise workflows and enhancing coding and long-range agent capabilities [11] - OpenAI is concentrating on long-range task closure and tool execution, evolving its models to become collaborative productivity assistants [25] - Google has released Gemini 3.1 Pro to enhance reasoning capabilities and Lyria 3 to expand into audio creation, reinforcing its competitive edge [32][40] - OpenClaw is positioned as a self-hosted gateway, integrating multiple communication channels and supporting tool-based agents [43] Domestic Large Model Breakthroughs - Z.ai's GLM-5 aims to extend open-source model capabilities to complex systems and long-range agent tasks, with a focus on engineering deployment [48] - MiniMax's M2.5 emphasizes real-world productivity, optimizing costs and throughput to facilitate agent scalability [53] - Kimi's K2.5 leverages a multi-modal MoE architecture to enhance visual understanding and parallel agent execution [65] - Alibaba's Qwen3.5-Plus focuses on open-source upgrades and multi-modal transitions to drive agent scalability [73] - ByteDance's recent model releases aim to transition AI capabilities from dialogue to actual task execution [81] Industry Trends - The industry is transitioning from generation to action, with a focus on supply efficiency and ecological reconstruction, as evidenced by the increase in token processing volumes and the emergence of efficiency-friendly models [89]

下载榜排名能否转化为超级入口仍是未知数。 伴随春节假期的结束，投入数十亿资金鏖战的"国产大模型春节战"告一段落。 大战期间，字节豆包、阿里千问、蚂蚁阿福、腾讯元宝轮流登顶App Store免费下载榜。截至2月25日，豆包维持第一位，千问第二，蚂蚁阿福跌至第六，元 宝跌至第十八。 从目前的排名情况来看，豆包与千问，字节跳动与阿里巴巴，守住了大模型时代的入口级位置。蚂蚁阿福与元宝跌出核心阵营，标志其该轮冲刺未能成功晋 级。 大洋彼岸的硅谷，大模型厂商在侧重模型性能提升的同时，开始追求务实，全面布局算力生态网络。中美厂商当下不同路径的选择，核心基于商业化发展成 熟度不同。中国SaaS付费习惯尚未全面养成，企业服务市场体量相对有限，巨头们看到的"最大蛋糕"依然是C端流量，即超级App的入口价值。 但需警惕的是，投入数十亿元烧出的下载榜排名能否转化为超级入口，积累的用户数据能否持续推动模型训练性能提升，仍是未知数。 表现在下载端，点点数据显示，2026年1月，大陆市场原生AI APP苹果端上，豆包、蚂蚁阿福、元宝、千问和DeepSeek位列TOP 5，占据了大盘的71%。其 中，豆包以23%的下载量占比位列第一梯队，蚂 ...

Core Viewpoint - Google is aggressively expanding its data center operations in Minnesota and Texas to meet unprecedented computing power demands, while also committing to clean energy initiatives [1][2][3]. Group 1: Minnesota Data Center - Google announced a partnership with Xcel Energy to build its first data center in Minnesota, which will include 1,900 megawatts of clean energy supply, comprising 1,400 megawatts of wind power, 200 megawatts of solar energy, and 300 megawatts of long-duration battery storage [5][6]. - The local city council has supported the data center project, which has received preliminary development approvals and financial incentives, including a $36 million tax break [7]. - The project is expected to generate over $130 million in tax revenue for the local government, although it faces opposition from local residents and environmental groups, with ongoing legal and regulatory reviews [8]. Group 2: Texas Data Center - In Texas, Google is also constructing a new data center that focuses on water resource safety and energy affordability, utilizing advanced air-cooling technology to minimize water consumption [10]. - This expansion is part of a broader $40 billion investment in Texas, aimed at addressing the rapidly growing demand for computing power [11]. Group 3: Computing Power and AI Development - Google's computing power is projected to increase from 15 gigawatts at the end of 2025 to 35 gigawatts by 2028, with cloud computing capacity expected to more than double [12]. - The company is leveraging its expanding infrastructure to enhance its AI capabilities, as evidenced by the recent release of the Gemini 3.1 Pro model, which has shown significant performance improvements [15]. - Analysts have upgraded Alphabet's stock rating based on its competitive advantages in customer data, distribution channels, and computing power, positioning it as a leading player in the AI era [16]. Group 4: Industry Challenges - The rapid expansion of data centers is facing challenges such as electricity and water shortages, community resistance, and outdated power grids, which are becoming significant obstacles for project implementation [17]. - The increasing energy demands of AI data centers have prompted discussions about self-sufficient power solutions among major tech companies, including proposals for space-based data centers to alleviate terrestrial constraints [17].

截至2026年2月25日 14:11，恒生科技ETF南方(520570)盘中换手2.56%，成交7419.26万元。跟踪指数恒 生科技指数成分股华虹半导体领涨2.37%，美团-W上涨1.60%，小鹏汽车-W上涨1.13%。 截至2月24日，从资金净流入方面来看，恒生科技ETF南方(520570)近10天获得连续资金净流入，市场调 整阶段资金呈现"越跌越买"的配置特征，投资者在指数相对低位积极布局。 在港股近期的震荡调整行情中，大量资金借道ETF布局。根据机构数据，2月24日，港股主题ETF净流 入99.55亿元，其中港股科技主题ETF成为资金重点加仓方向。 春节期间，国内外科技公司密集发布新一代AI大模型，谷歌推出Gemini 3.1 Pro，智谱发布GLM-5、 MiniMax推出M2.5、阿里云上线Qwen3.5-Plus等，国产大模型迎来技术与商业化双重拐点：技术上从参 数比拼转向Agent与效率革命，商业化从投入期进入盈利期，全球化加速亦催生反向出海新趋势；同时 国产芯片完成深度适配，GLM-5已全面支持华为昇腾、寒武纪、昆仑芯、沐曦等主流国产算力平台。 上个马年沪指涨近60%！新年新福利来了，炒股排 ...

AI资本开支持续超预期，热点催化不断，应用端落地兑现有望加速，我们认为AI的高景气或将延续，投资者或可关注通信ETF（515880）、半导体设备 ETF（159516）、科创人工智能ETF（589110）等产品。 春节前后，全球AI大模型迭代更新频繁，热点催化不断。海外Anthropic推出Claude Sonnet 4.6，在编程、计算机使用、长上下文推理、Agent规划、知识工 作和设计工作上全面进化；谷歌发布新一代旗舰模型Gemini 3.1 Pro，复杂任务处理大幅提升。 国内智谱AI正式发布下一代基础模型GLM-5，在技术架构、性能、实际应用等方面实现突破，在多个任务测试中位列开源模型第一；MiniMax发布旗舰编 程模型M2.5，定位为全球首个为Agent场景原生设计的生产级模型；阿里发布Qwen3.5-Plus，性能媲美顶级闭源模型。 我们看到，大模型的头部企业已逐渐走出差异化竞争路线，而智谱等企业在发布新模型的同时提价，说明增长可能正逐步由"跑马圈地"进入"为高质量付 费"的新阶段，这将有利于这些企业长期的盈利改善。 此外，从资本开支来看，海外云厂商25年实际数据及26年指引均超出市场预期，体 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent disclosure of holdings by Himalaya Capital, led by investor Li Lu, reveals a significant focus on technology stocks, particularly Google, which remains the largest position in their portfolio as of the end of 2025. Group 1: Holdings Overview - As of the end of 2025, Himalaya Capital holds shares in 8 U.S. listed companies, with a total market value of $3.57 billion (approximately 246 billion RMB) [1][11]. - Google's position is the largest, with a holding value exceeding $1.56 billion, accounting for 43.86% of the portfolio [3][12]. - The second and third largest holdings are Bank of America and Pinduoduo, valued at $573.73 million (16.08%) and $522.50 million (14.64%) respectively, with no changes in share quantities from the previous quarter [3][12]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Li Lu's investment style is characterized by low turnover and a focus on high-quality companies, which is evident in the recent portfolio adjustments [2][12]. - In the fourth quarter of the previous year, Himalaya Capital initiated a position in Crocs, acquiring 628,159 shares valued at $53.72 million, while exiting energy stock Sable Offshore [1][8]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The technology sector is highlighted as a preferred choice among major private equity firms, with both Jinglin Asset and Dongfang Harbor also holding significant positions in Google [4][14]. - Google's financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2025 showed total revenue surpassing $400 billion for the first time, reflecting a 15% year-over-year growth, driven by advancements in AI technology and cloud services [4][15]. - The AI sector is experiencing rapid growth, with various subfields achieving commercial viability, suggesting a favorable outlook for investments in AI-related companies [6][16].

大模型持续更新，红包大战抢用户 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中信建投证券研究 文|阎贵成 于芳博 刘永旭 曹添雨 AI发展日新月异，大模型持续迭代升级，算力需求非常强劲。如智谱新模型编程能力大幅提升，引发 算力需求激增，Seedance视频能力表现非常亮眼，引发业界大佬关注。我们认为大模型的商业变现路径 畅通，正在从"低价/免费圈地"阶段走向"为高质量付费"阶段，且带动的算力需求非常旺盛。假期期 间，美股AI算力光通信个股总体表现亮眼，如Lumentum、康宁、Coherent均创历史新高（盘中或收 盘），智谱与MINIMAX-WP也大涨。黄仁勋表示将在3月举办的GTC大会发布"世界前所未见"的芯片。 继续看好AI产业链，包括大模型、AI算力链等。 春节假期期间，全球AI大模型迭代更新频繁。 2月18日凌晨，Anthropic推出史上最强Sonnet模型Claude Sonnet 4.6，在编程、计算机使用、长上下文推 理、Agent规划、知识工作和设计工作上全面进化。从基准测试结果来看，Claude Sonnet 4.6的智能水平 已接近Opus级别，在Agen ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses advancements in the AI industry, focusing on major companies such as Google, OpenTropic, Alibaba, and XAI, along with their product releases and market performance. Key Company Insights Google - **Gemini 3.1 Pro**: Achieved a historic high score of 77 in AICAGI ratings, doubling the capabilities of the previous GPT-3 model. It includes innovations like generating complex maps, simulating city operations, and enhanced programming capabilities, allowing literary works to be converted into code. The model's hallucination rate decreased from 88% to 50% [1][2][3]. - **Pricing Strategy**: The pricing for Gemini 3.1 Pro remains unchanged, reflecting Google's strategy of increasing value without raising prices, potentially accelerating future iterations [3]. OpenTropic - **Sunnet 4.6**: Launched as a cost-effective general-purpose model with performance comparable to high-end models. It supports management of million-token contexts and has shown significant improvements in code generation and tool usage capabilities. The model's score improved from 15 to 60 over two years [4]. - **Revenue Growth**: Expected to quadruple revenue in 2026 compared to 2025, indicating strong market demand [4]. Alibaba - **Qianwen 3.5 Plus**: Open-sourced with 397 billion total parameters and 17 billion active parameters. Its API pricing is approximately 1/18 of Gemini 3 Pro, with a reasoning speed 19 times faster. Since 2023, Alibaba has released over 400 models, achieving over 1 billion downloads [9]. - **Market Performance**: During the Spring Festival, Alibaba's promotional activities led to significant user engagement, with 1.3 billion shopping transactions completed [9]. XAI - **Grok 4.20**: Introduced a parallel agent mechanism that enhances accuracy and logic through discussions among models. It was the only profitable model in a simulated stock trading competition, achieving an average return rate of 10% and a maximum of 47% [6]. Zhiyun Technology - **Market Valuation**: The company's market value surpassed 300 billion RMB, with revenue expectations reaching 200 times the price-to-sales ratio. Following the release of GLM 5, domestic and international versions saw price increases of 30% and 100%, respectively [10][11]. Other Notable Developments - **Doubao**: Achieved significant user engagement during the Spring Festival, with 1.7 billion interactions and 500 million generated avatars. It has become a national-level application with strong marketing capabilities [7][8]. - **Market Competition**: Companies are actively engaging in advertising and promotional activities to capture a wider customer base, reflecting the competitive nature of the current market [13]. Conclusion - The AI industry is witnessing rapid advancements and competitive dynamics, with major players releasing innovative models and achieving significant user engagement. The focus on cost-effective solutions and enhanced capabilities is driving growth and market interest.

开源证券主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，春节假期期间海内外大模型密集更新，海外科技以上涨为 主，国产大模型如千问、Seedance、混元、星火、百灵、智谱GLM、MiniMax等厂商也均有更新。该行 建议，重点关注受益海内外AI算力资本开支上调的相关方向，以及国产算力自主可控链条，和靶材、 被动元器件等涨价方向。推荐标的：江丰电子(300666.SZ)；受益标的：精测电子(300567.SZ)、芯原股 份(688521.SH)、澜起科技(688008.SH)、华正新材(603186.SH)、晶合集成(688249.SH)等。 市场回顾 2月21日金融界报道称，受成本攀升与供给持续偏紧的双重挤压，电子布第二轮涨价或将启动，据卓创 资讯数据，2025年10月、12月以及2026年1月、2月，普通电子布已经历四次涨价。智通财经报道， OpenAI正敲定新一轮融资计划，目标筹集1000亿美元，融资完成后公司估值将达到8300亿美元，同时 OpenAI更新长期资本开支计划，预计2030年实现总计约6000亿美元算力支出。 存力：三星和SK海力士加快扩产节奏，美光澄清HBM4传闻称进度好于预期。韩 ...

市场今日冲高回落，创业板指盘中一度涨超2%。沪深两市成交额2.2万亿，较节前最后一个交易日放量 2194亿。盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，油气、电网、化工等板块涨幅居前，影视院线下跌。截至收盘， 沪指涨0.87%，深成指涨1.36%，创业板指涨0.99%，中证A500指数涨1.20%。 此外，春节前及春节期间，AI相关的热点催化不断。智谱、字节、阿里、Minimax等多家企业相继发布 新的AI模型，机器人也因在春晚的优秀表现而受到广泛关注。 展望后市，我们看好（1）以AI为代表的景气成长板块有望在高速发展后落地兑现；（2）中长期资金 入市及居民"存款搬家"在政策及低利率环境下有望持续；（3）促消费等政策或将继续发挥作用，推动 物价平稳回升，进而系统性改善企业盈利。基于此，我们建议投资者或可关注中证A500ETF（159338） 等一键打包各行业龙头的宽基产品，同时或可考虑科技+红利的哑铃型配置作为卫星策略。 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> AI资本开支持续超预期，热点催化不断，应用端落地兑现有望加速，我们认为AI的高景气或将延续， 投资者或可关注通信ET ...