·········································································································[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 1 Mar 2026 ```··························································································································································································································································· 东南亚可选消费必需消费 Southeast Asia Discretionary Staples 东南亚指数双周报第 19 期：区域分化，泰国持续走强 ASEAN Index Tracking: Southeas ...

·········································································································[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 1 Mar 2026 ```··························································································································································································································································· 东南亚可选消费必需消费 Southeast Asia Discretionary Staples 东南亚指数双周报第 19 期：区域分化，泰国持续走强 ASEAN Index Tracking: Southeas ...

Performance Overview - Southeast Asia ETF rose by 1.59%, with Malaysia leading the gains while Vietnam weakened[37] - The Southeast Asia Technology ETF dropped by 4.76%, underperforming the broader Southeast Asia ETF by 6.36 percentage points[37] Country-Specific Performance - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF fell by 0.42%, underperforming by 2.02 percentage points, indicating a stable market with mixed macro growth expectations[38] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF decreased by 0.81%, underperforming by 2.40 percentage points, reflecting cautious market sentiment due to diverging business confidence[38] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF increased by 0.44%, underperforming by 1.16 percentage points, amid limited monetary easing effects and structural growth challenges[38] - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF rose by 3.73%, outperforming by 2.14 percentage points, supported by local currency appreciation and external capital inflows[38] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF dropped by 1.00%, underperforming by 2.59 percentage points, as market sentiment reversed due to concerns over domestic debt risks[38] Market Risks - Key risks include macroeconomic downturns and geopolitical uncertainties, which could impact market performance[36]

Group 1: Market Performance Overview - Southeast Asia ETF increased by 1.59%, outperforming China, India, the US, Japan, and Latin America, but underperforming Africa and the UK[6] - Southeast Asia Technology ETF decreased by 4.76%, lagging behind the overall Southeast Asia ETF by 6.36 percentage points[6] Group 2: Country-Specific ETF Performance - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF fell by 0.42%, underperforming by 2.02 percentage points, with stable market conditions but structural consumption pressures[7] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF declined by 0.81%, underperforming by 2.40 percentage points, due to cautious market sentiment from divided business confidence[7] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF rose by 0.44%, underperforming by 1.16 percentage points, amid limited effects of monetary easing and structural growth challenges[7] - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF increased by 3.73%, outperforming by 2.14 percentage points, supported by currency appreciation and external capital inflows[7] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF dropped by 1.00%, underperforming by 2.59 percentage points, with strong foreign capital inflows contrasted by debt risk concerns[7] Group 3: Key Economic Indicators - Indonesia's economic growth forecast for 2025-2026 was raised to 5% by the World Bank, driven by strong exports and investment growth[16] - Singapore's GDP growth forecast for 2025 was adjusted down to a range of 1%-3%, reflecting weakened short-term economic momentum[19] - Thailand's GDP growth forecast for 2026 was lowered to 1.5%, with inflation expected to return to target only by 2027[21] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include macroeconomic downturns and geopolitical uncertainties, which could impact market performance across the region[34]

Market Overview - Southeast Asia ETFs fell by 1.75%, while Vietnam outperformed by 9.15 percentage points[2] - The Global X FTSE Southeast Asia ETF dropped 1.75% over the two-week period from September 27 to October 10, 2025[6] - Southeast Asia ETFs outperformed China but underperformed the U.S., Japan, Africa, India, Latin America, and the U.K.[2] Country-Specific Performance - Indonesia's iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF fell by 1.65%, outperforming by 0.10 percentage points; GDP is expected to grow over 5.5% in Q4 2025[3] - Singapore's iShares MSCI Singapore ETF decreased by 0.07%, outperforming by 1.68 percentage points[3] - Thailand's iShares MSCI Thailand ETF dropped by 2.18%, underperforming by 0.44 percentage points; the Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.6 in September 2025[3] - Malaysia's iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF fell by 1.55%, outperforming by 0.19 percentage points; palm oil production is estimated to decrease by 2.35%[3] - Vietnam's Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF rose by 7.40%, outperforming by 9.15 percentage points; GDP growth reached 8.23% year-on-year in Q3 2025[3] Investment Insights - The Southeast Asia Technology ETF increased by 3.18%, outperforming the broader Southeast Asia ETF by 4.93 percentage points[2] - FTSE Russell reclassified Vietnam as an emerging market, expected to attract billions in foreign investment[3]

Market Overview - Southeast Asia ETFs fell by 0.84%, indicating a regional market correction, while Vietnam experienced positive growth[32] - The Southeast Asia ETF outperformed Latin America, India, and Japan, but lagged behind China, Africa, and the UK[32] Country-Specific Performance - Indonesia's iShares MSCI ETF declined by 4.49%, underperforming by 3.65 percentage points due to central bank rate cuts and social events[33] - Singapore's iShares MSCI ETF rose by 1.30%, outperforming by 2.14 percentage points, supported by an upward revision of the 2025 GDP growth forecast[34] - Thailand's iShares MSCI ETF fell by 0.76%, outperforming by 0.08 percentage points, primarily affected by political uncertainty[34] - Malaysia's iShares MSCI ETF decreased by 0.44%, outperforming by 0.40 percentage points, with active trading and stable economic growth in Q2 2025[34] - Vietnam's Global X MSCI ETF increased by 2.88%, outperforming by 3.73 percentage points, bolstered by new decrees reducing land use fees and rents[35] Trading Volume Insights - The Global X FTSE Southeast Asia ETF had a trading volume of 145,000 shares, down 22.9% from the previous period[9] - Indonesia's iShares MSCI ETF saw a trading volume of 9.658 million shares, up 36.9%[10] - Malaysia's iShares MSCI ETF experienced a significant increase in trading volume by 107.5%[10] Risk Factors - The report highlights macroeconomic downturn risks and geopolitical tensions as potential threats to market stability[4][31]

Market Performance - Southeast Asia ETF rose by 1.69%, driven by expectations of monetary easing, supporting continued market recovery[5] - The Southeast Asia ETF outperformed Latin America, India, and the UK, lagging only behind China[34] - The Southeast Asia Technology ETF gained 4.32%, outperforming the broader Southeast Asia ETF by 2.62 percentage points[34] Country-Specific Performance - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF rose by 1.66%, underperforming by 0.03 percentage points, supported by a U.S.-Indonesia trade agreement and interest rate cuts[38] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF increased by 4.91%, outperforming by 3.21 percentage points, indicating a stable upward trend[38] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF surged by 6.21%, outperforming by 4.51 percentage points, as tariff risks were largely priced in[38] - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF fell by 1.97%, underperforming by 3.66 percentage points, despite a central bank interest rate cut[38] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF jumped by 11.79%, outperforming by 10.10 percentage points, buoyed by a trade agreement and strong economic resilience[38] Trading Volume and Liquidity - Global X FTSE Southeast Asia ETF had a trading volume of 118,000 shares, a decrease of 2.7%[13] - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF trading volume increased by 39.7% to 6.982 million shares[14] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF trading volume decreased by 25.4% to 448,600 shares[14] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF trading volume surged by 100.5% to 291,000 shares[14] Economic Indicators - Vietnam's GDP grew by 7.96% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with a forecast of 8% growth for the full year[25] - The Thai SET index rose by 7.74%, reflecting positive market sentiment amid ongoing trade negotiations[19] - Malaysia's central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75%, the first cut in five years, but market reaction was muted[21]