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东南亚指数双周报第3期:宽松政策预期强化,驱动行情延续上行-20250722
Market Performance - Southeast Asia ETF rose by 1.69%, driven by expectations of monetary easing, supporting continued market recovery[5] - The Southeast Asia ETF outperformed Latin America, India, and the UK, lagging only behind China[34] - The Southeast Asia Technology ETF gained 4.32%, outperforming the broader Southeast Asia ETF by 2.62 percentage points[34] Country-Specific Performance - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF rose by 1.66%, underperforming by 0.03 percentage points, supported by a U.S.-Indonesia trade agreement and interest rate cuts[38] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF increased by 4.91%, outperforming by 3.21 percentage points, indicating a stable upward trend[38] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF surged by 6.21%, outperforming by 4.51 percentage points, as tariff risks were largely priced in[38] - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF fell by 1.97%, underperforming by 3.66 percentage points, despite a central bank interest rate cut[38] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF jumped by 11.79%, outperforming by 10.10 percentage points, buoyed by a trade agreement and strong economic resilience[38] Trading Volume and Liquidity - Global X FTSE Southeast Asia ETF had a trading volume of 118,000 shares, a decrease of 2.7%[13] - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF trading volume increased by 39.7% to 6.982 million shares[14] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF trading volume decreased by 25.4% to 448,600 shares[14] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF trading volume surged by 100.5% to 291,000 shares[14] Economic Indicators - Vietnam's GDP grew by 7.96% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with a forecast of 8% growth for the full year[25] - The Thai SET index rose by 7.74%, reflecting positive market sentiment amid ongoing trade negotiations[19] - Malaysia's central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75%, the first cut in five years, but market reaction was muted[21]
宝城期货国债期货早报-20250611
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 00:54
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of treasury bond futures is to oscillate. In the short - term, they will mainly oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to the financial policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18th [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is oscillation - biased - strong, and the overall view is oscillation, with the core logic being the weakening of macro - economic indicators [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is oscillation - biased - strong, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures continued narrow - range oscillation and consolidation yesterday. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK, and the consultation result is highly uncertain. Due to the deepening of the uncertainty of tariff prospects and the marginal weakening of domestic macro - economic indicators, the main tone of moderately loose monetary policy remains unchanged. The market's expectation of future easing policies will rise, providing strong support at the bottom of treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the effect of monetary tools may be less than that of fiscal tools, so the possibility of boosting demand through continuous interest rate cuts in the short term is not high [5].
宝城期货国债期货早报-20250606
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 02:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation with a slight upward bias". The overall view is "oscillation", mainly due to rising tariff risks and weakening macro data [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". Uncertainty in tariff prospects and weakening domestic macro - economic indicators, along with a moderately loose monetary policy and zero implied interest - rate cut expectations in market interest rates, lead to strong bottom support for bond futures. However, recent net liquidity withdrawal by the central bank has weakened short - term upward momentum. Future market direction depends on policy guidance, and the financial policies at the June 18th Lujiazui Forum can be monitored. In the short term, bond futures will mainly oscillate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: oscillation with a slight upward bias; overall view: oscillation. Core logic: rising tariff risks and weakening macro data [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Variety: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: oscillation with a slight upward bias; medium - term view: oscillation; reference view: oscillation. Core logic: bond futures oscillated and retreated after an intraday high yesterday. Uncertainty in tariff prospects, weakening domestic macro - economic indicators, a moderately loose monetary policy, and zero implied interest - rate cut expectations in market interest rates provide strong bottom support for bond futures. Recent net liquidity withdrawal by the central bank has weakened short - term upward momentum. Future market direction depends on policy guidance, and the financial policies at the June 18th Lujiazui Forum can be monitored. In the short term, bond futures will mainly oscillate [5].