Core Viewpoint - Gold prices (XAU/USD) have declined for the second consecutive day, retreating from historical highs due to easing inflation pressures indicated by the latest U.S. CPI data, which has diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3] Fundamental Analysis - The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows an overall year-on-year increase of 2.7% in November, below the expected 3.1%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.6%, also lower than market consensus [3] - Economists suggest that the data may be distorted due to the U.S. government shutdown, but the signals of cooling inflation have weakened gold's safe-haven demand. The dollar has seen a rebound in buying for three consecutive days, reaching near weekly highs, which typically suppresses gold demand priced in dollars, further intensifying downward pressure on gold prices [3] - Market expectations regarding future monetary policy are characterized by a dual dynamic. Current expectations for easing policies have not been significantly diminished by the inflation data, with traders still betting on a potential adjustment of 63 basis points by 2026, which could provide some support for gold prices. However, the rising expectations for easing have also increased market risk appetite, leading to a shift of funds from the gold market to higher-risk assets, counteracting some of the support for gold and facilitating short-term depreciation [3] - Short-term focus is on upcoming U.S. economic data and statements from relevant officials. Data on existing home sales, revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and comments from key policymakers are likely to impact the dollar's movement, creating short-term trading opportunities for gold [3] Technical Analysis - Last Friday, gold experienced a false breakout in the $4350-$4355 range and fell below the 100-hour simple moving average, which is favorable for bearish positions [4] - However, there are conflicting signals in the oscillators on the hourly and daily charts. A cautious strategy is recommended, waiting for sustained selling below $4300 before considering deeper adjustments. A confirmed break below this level could test the weekly low of $4272-$4271 and support levels of $4260-$4255, with a potential further decline to the $4200 psychological level [6] Resistance Levels - Immediate resistance is found in the $4338-$4340 range. A breakthrough could challenge the historical high near $4380, and surpassing the $4400 mark may extend the previous strong trend [7]

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is currently in a narrow fluctuation pattern around 1.3366, with market focus on the Bank of England's interest rate decision and upcoming US inflation data, leading to cautious trading behavior [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November rose by 3.2% year-on-year, a significant drop from October's 3.6%, marking an eight-month low and exceeding market expectations [1][2] - The decline in inflation is attributed to falling food prices, lower tobacco prices, and discounts on women's clothing, indicating a comprehensive easing of inflationary pressures [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England have reached 90%, potentially lowering the benchmark rate from 4.00% to 3.75% [2] - The Monetary Policy Committee shows a split with 5 votes in favor and 4 against the rate cut, with Governor Andrew Bailey's stance being crucial [2] - Future rate cuts may be limited by the neutral interest rate range of approximately 3.5% to 3.75% [2] Group 3: External Influences - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut to a range of 3.5%-3.75% has provided some support for the GBP, despite a split in the decision-making process [2] - The uncertainty surrounding UK fiscal policy has diminished, with a reported fiscal buffer of approximately £22 billion, leading to a reduction in short positions on the GBP [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD remains above the 100-day moving average (1.3300), with a stable upward trend and increasing volatility indicated by the expanding Bollinger Bands [3] - Strong support is identified in the 1.3300-1.3328 range, while resistance levels are noted at 1.3380 and 1.3400 [3] - A dovish signal from the Bank of England could lead to a drop towards the 1.3250 support level, while a less than expected rate cut or weak US inflation data could allow the GBP to break resistance and extend upward [3]

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - Spot gold prices showed active performance, breaking through $4310 per ounce on the morning of December 17, with a daily increase of 0.16% [1] - On December 16, spot gold reached above $4320 per ounce (daily increase of 0.35%) and $4330 per ounce (daily increase of 0.59%) [2][3] - New York futures gold also strengthened, breaking through $4350 per ounce on the evening of December 16 (daily increase of 0.34%) and further rising to $4360 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.57% [4][5] Group 2: Energy and Shipping Futures - In the oil market, U.S. API inventory data showed a significant decrease of 9.322 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventory for the week ending December 12, far exceeding the expected decrease of 2.197 million barrels, with a previous value of a decrease of 4.779 million barrels [6] - Despite the larger-than-expected inventory drop, oil prices remained under pressure, with WTI crude oil dropping over 3% on December 16, falling below $55 per barrel, with a minimum of $54.97 per barrel [7][8] - Brent crude oil also fell below $59 per barrel, with a daily decline of 2.58% [9] - Additionally, on December 17, Trump ordered a comprehensive blockade on all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, which may further impact the crude oil supply chain [10] Group 3: Macroeconomic and Market Impact - Federal Reserve policy expectations remain a focal point for the market [3] - Reports indicate that Trump plans to interview Federal Reserve Governor Waller on December 18, considering nominating him as the Federal Reserve Chairman [11][12] - Previous doubts were expressed by Trump administration officials regarding the current Federal Reserve Chairman nominee, Hassett, while Hassett stated that Trump disagrees with the notion that "the Federal Reserve Chairman cannot be a close friend" and believes interest rates can be lower [13][14] - Waller, a key advocate for interest rate cuts within the Federal Reserve, voted against maintaining interest rates this year, and his potential nomination may strengthen market expectations for easing policies [15]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing slight differentiation, with expectations for monetary easing reignited by recent economic data, leading to a mixed performance in government bond futures and a modest decline in interbank bond yields [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures showed mixed results, with the 30-year main contract down 0.19% to 111.39, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts saw slight increases of 0.05% and 0.03%, respectively [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally declined, with the 30-year special government bond yield down 1.55 basis points to 2.2675%, and the 10-year government bond yield down 1 basis point to 1.849% [2]. Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield down 1.86 basis points to 3.504% and the 30-year yield up 0.31 basis points to 4.847% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly fell, with the 10-year yield down 0.2 basis points to 1.956% [4]. Primary Market - In Heilongjiang Province, the results of the local bond auction showed a bid-to-cover ratio exceeding 16 times, with the 5-year bond yield at 1.75% and the 10-year bond yield at 2.09% [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 135.3 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 18 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate up 0.2 basis points to 1.276% and the 7-day rate down 0.3 basis points to 1.429% [6]. Institutional Views - Citic Securities noted that the overall liquidity in the market is currently loose, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the first half of next year [7]. - Huaxi Fixed Income suggested that the bond market sentiment remains cautious due to concerns over redemption fee regulations and long-term bond supply, despite the expectation of monetary easing [8].

摘要周五(12月12日)本周美联储降息落地后，市场对后续进一步宽松政策的预期持续升温，直接推动黄 金价格延续强势上涨态势，美联储鸽派基调为金价提供了坚实的买盘支撑，现货黄金尾盘报收4299.39 美元/盎司，涨幅0.48%，周线涨幅2.42%。 【最新黄金行情解析】 周五(12月12日)本周美联储降息落地后，市场对后续进一步宽松政策的预期持续升温，直接推动黄金价 格延续强势上涨态势，美联储鸽派基调为金价提供了坚实的买盘支撑，现货黄金尾盘报收4299.39美元/ 盎司，涨幅0.48%，周线涨幅2.42%。 黄金周五过山车模式再次上演，周五下午冲高午夜再进行探底，最低触及4257一线，最高冲击4353一 线，最终收盘在4300一线关口，振幅近100美元，从收盘的走势来看，下周金价继续以冲高为主，下方 关注4290-96一线； 【要闻速递】 从4小时图走势来看，上方重点关注前期高点4380-85一线重要压制，下方关注4290-96一线短期支撑， 重点关注4266-4270一线重要支撑。 尽管美联储并未给出明确的前瞻性政策指引，但主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔在决议后明确释放"短期加息概率极 低"的关键信号，在重申其标志性的数据 ...

Market Performance - Southeast Asia ETF rose by 1.69%, driven by expectations of monetary easing, supporting continued market recovery[5] - The Southeast Asia ETF outperformed Latin America, India, and the UK, lagging only behind China[34] - The Southeast Asia Technology ETF gained 4.32%, outperforming the broader Southeast Asia ETF by 2.62 percentage points[34] Country-Specific Performance - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF rose by 1.66%, underperforming by 0.03 percentage points, supported by a U.S.-Indonesia trade agreement and interest rate cuts[38] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF increased by 4.91%, outperforming by 3.21 percentage points, indicating a stable upward trend[38] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF surged by 6.21%, outperforming by 4.51 percentage points, as tariff risks were largely priced in[38] - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF fell by 1.97%, underperforming by 3.66 percentage points, despite a central bank interest rate cut[38] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF jumped by 11.79%, outperforming by 10.10 percentage points, buoyed by a trade agreement and strong economic resilience[38] Trading Volume and Liquidity - Global X FTSE Southeast Asia ETF had a trading volume of 118,000 shares, a decrease of 2.7%[13] - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF trading volume increased by 39.7% to 6.982 million shares[14] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF trading volume decreased by 25.4% to 448,600 shares[14] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF trading volume surged by 100.5% to 291,000 shares[14] Economic Indicators - Vietnam's GDP grew by 7.96% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with a forecast of 8% growth for the full year[25] - The Thai SET index rose by 7.74%, reflecting positive market sentiment amid ongoing trade negotiations[19] - Malaysia's central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75%, the first cut in five years, but market reaction was muted[21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of treasury bond futures is to oscillate. In the short - term, they will mainly oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to the financial policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18th [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is oscillation - biased - strong, and the overall view is oscillation, with the core logic being the weakening of macro - economic indicators [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is oscillation - biased - strong, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures continued narrow - range oscillation and consolidation yesterday. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK, and the consultation result is highly uncertain. Due to the deepening of the uncertainty of tariff prospects and the marginal weakening of domestic macro - economic indicators, the main tone of moderately loose monetary policy remains unchanged. The market's expectation of future easing policies will rise, providing strong support at the bottom of treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the effect of monetary tools may be less than that of fiscal tools, so the possibility of boosting demand through continuous interest rate cuts in the short term is not high [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation with a slight upward bias". The overall view is "oscillation", mainly due to rising tariff risks and weakening macro data [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". Uncertainty in tariff prospects and weakening domestic macro - economic indicators, along with a moderately loose monetary policy and zero implied interest - rate cut expectations in market interest rates, lead to strong bottom support for bond futures. However, recent net liquidity withdrawal by the central bank has weakened short - term upward momentum. Future market direction depends on policy guidance, and the financial policies at the June 18th Lujiazui Forum can be monitored. In the short term, bond futures will mainly oscillate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: oscillation with a slight upward bias; overall view: oscillation. Core logic: rising tariff risks and weakening macro data [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Variety: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: oscillation with a slight upward bias; medium - term view: oscillation; reference view: oscillation. Core logic: bond futures oscillated and retreated after an intraday high yesterday. Uncertainty in tariff prospects, weakening domestic macro - economic indicators, a moderately loose monetary policy, and zero implied interest - rate cut expectations in market interest rates provide strong bottom support for bond futures. Recent net liquidity withdrawal by the central bank has weakened short - term upward momentum. Future market direction depends on policy guidance, and the financial policies at the June 18th Lujiazui Forum can be monitored. In the short term, bond futures will mainly oscillate [5].