中金发布研报称，基本维持香港交易所(00388)25e/26e盈利不变，引入27年盈利179亿港币。当前交易于 33x/31x26e/27e P/E，维持目标价500港币不变、对应37x/35x26e/27e P/E及12.6%的上行空间;维持跑赢行 业评级。 港交所计划于2月26日披露4Q25业绩：该行预计4Q25收入同比+4%/环比-15%至66.1亿港币，剔除投资 收益后主营业务收入同比+13%/环比-13%至58.1亿港币，盈利同比-1%/环比-24%至37.3亿港币;预计全年 总收入同比+27%至284.6亿港币，盈利同比+31%至171.5亿港币。 4Q移动平均6M/1M/隔夜拆借HIBOR分别环比-0.26ppt/+1.17ppt/+1.16ppt，长端收益利率下滑而短端成本 利率回升下保证金息差或有所收窄，同时4Q起港交所调整保证金利息返利政策、带动资金成本有所提 升，叠加港交所衍生品保证金要求环比下降，或带动保证金投资收益下行。 关注港股beta的同时、更聚焦"资产+资金"双重共振下的中长期配置价值 中金主要观点如下： 年初以来港股ADT达2,676亿港币、较25年全年+7%，该行测算若20 ...

Group 1 - The report by Deloitte China indicates that despite geopolitical tensions and the impact of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy, the global IPO financing amount for the top ten new stocks in 2025 shows slight improvement compared to 2024 [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is expected to lead in new stock financing in 2025, with four out of eight super-large IPOs ranking among the top ten globally [1] - The A-share market in 2025 continues the momentum from 2024, with an increase in the number of new stocks and a significant rise in financing amounts, supported by new policies [1][2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong IPO market is projected to rebound strongly in 2025, with expectations to reach a record financing amount of at least 300 billion HKD in 2026, driven by measures encouraging mainland enterprises to list in Hong Kong and the return of international capital [2] - By December 31, 2025, 114 companies are expected to list in the A-share market, raising 129.6 billion RMB, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange leading in financing amount [2] - The report anticipates that the A-share market will continue to see stable growth in new stock issuance in 2026, particularly in sectors like AI and those prioritized in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][3] Group 3 - Deloitte's partner in East China noted that the A-share market's performance in 2025 surpasses that of 2024, with an increase in average financing scale among the top five new stocks, indicating a healthy supply of quality IPOs [3] - The Hong Kong market achieved significant success in 2025, reclaiming its position as the leading global IPO market, attributed to various reforms and measures implemented by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Securities and Futures Commission [3] - Predictions for 2026 suggest around 160 new IPOs in Hong Kong, with financing expected to exceed 300 billion HKD, including several large-scale listings from mainland enterprises [3][4] Group 4 - The outlook for the Hong Kong IPO market may still be influenced by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, including US monetary policy and global capital allocation trends [4] - Continuous reforms and institutional optimizations in the capital market are expected to enhance Hong Kong's overall competitiveness, liquidity, and valuation levels, improving the IPO market's ecosystem [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that leading brokerage firms with advantages in corporate client resources, professional service capabilities, and cross-border service capabilities are expected to continue benefiting from the evolving investment banking ecosystem as the financing and investment landscape enters a new phase [1][3] - In the A-share market, equity financing is gradually recovering, with bond underwriting maintaining growth. In November, there were 12 new IPOs raising a total of 20.5 billion yuan, and refinancing reached 12 billion yuan. Year-to-date, A-share IPOs have increased by 95% and refinancing by 363% (70% excluding large state-owned enterprise placements) [1] - The demand for mergers and acquisitions remains strong, with 157 major restructuring events disclosed year-to-date, including 11 in November. Bond issuance has also seen a cumulative underwriting scale increase, with 398.3 billion yuan in core bond issuance in November, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13% [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant increase in trading activity since the second half of 2024, with improved market liquidity driving a substantial recovery in IPOs and refinancing. Year-to-date, the IPO scale in Hong Kong has reached 259.4 billion HKD, up 228%, while refinancing has reached 315.6 billion HKD, up 251% [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has emphasized the need for a more transparent, efficient, and predictable regulatory environment for overseas listings, which is expected to further enhance the financing convenience in the Hong Kong market [2] - The investment and financing rebalancing is entering a new phase, with ongoing reforms expected to benefit various business segments of brokerage firms, including investment banking [3]

Pre-IPO Preparation Stage - Companies choose to IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) due to its advantages such as access to international capital, flexible listing rules, and high liquidity with an average daily trading volume of approximately HKD 130 billion in 2023 [3][4] - Basic conditions for IPO on HKEX include a net profit of at least HKD 50 million over the last three years, a market capitalization of at least HKD 500 million, and a public float of at least 25% [3][4] - Special conditions for biotech companies (Chapter 18A) allow them to list without profitability, focusing instead on their potential for international financing and flexible voting structures [3][4] - Special conditions for specialized technology companies (Chapter 18C) were introduced in 2023, targeting sectors like advanced hardware and renewable energy [4] Selection of Intermediaries and Due Diligence - Key intermediaries in the IPO process include sponsors, lawyers, accountants, underwriters, and industry consultants, each with specific responsibilities [5][6][7][8] - Sponsors are responsible for the overall compliance of the IPO process and must hold a HKEX sponsorship license [5] - Lawyers assist in structuring equity and compliance documentation, while accountants audit financial statements and ensure compliance with HKFRS or IFRS [6] Restructuring and Guidance - Common structures for mainland companies going public in Hong Kong include red-chip structures, H-share structures, and VIE structures, each with specific regulatory considerations [9][10] - The 2023 regulations require submission of a filing report to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for companies using VIE structures [10][11] HKEX Application and Review Process - The HKEX IPO review process has been streamlined with the introduction of the FINI platform, significantly reducing the time required for approval [11][12] - The process includes pre-communication with the exchange, submission of formal applications, and multiple rounds of inquiries from the exchange [11] Pricing and Allocation - The pricing mechanism for HKEX IPOs utilizes a bookbuilding approach, with cornerstone investors playing a crucial role in stabilizing market confidence [13][14] - The initial allocation typically consists of 10% for public offerings and 90% for international placements, with a mechanism for reallocation based on demand [14] Post-Listing Maintenance - Companies listed on HKEX must adhere to continuous disclosure obligations as outlined in Chapter 13 of the Listing Rules, including timely reporting of significant events [15] - The introduction of enhanced ESG disclosure requirements starting in 2024 mandates all listed companies to report on climate-related information [15] Recent Regulatory Developments - Recent changes include the launch of the FINI platform, the introduction of Chapter 18C for specialized technology companies, and stricter VIE structure regulations requiring legal analysis of control agreements [15]

Core Viewpoint - The securities industry is urged to enhance its mission to better serve investors and optimize asset allocation for residents, focusing on high-quality development and professional services in various financial aspects [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Development Direction - The industry is shifting from a focus on scale and profit expansion to prioritizing functional excellence and high-quality development [2]. - Emphasis on serving the real economy by optimizing business structures and innovating financial products to meet the needs of enterprises [2]. - The industry must adapt to the evolving financial service demands driven by technological and industrial innovations, particularly in sectors like technology and entrepreneurship [2]. Group 2: Professional Service Enhancement - The industry is expected to uphold its "gatekeeper" responsibilities by ensuring integrity and diligence, transitioning from merely managing IPOs to providing comprehensive support throughout the process [3]. - There is a need to enhance capabilities in value discovery and improve the professionalism of IPO and M&A services, fostering deeper involvement in value creation for enterprises [3]. - Wealth management services should be strengthened, focusing on aligning with investor interests and developing a robust evaluation system centered on investor returns [3]. Group 3: Innovation and Differentiation - The industry is encouraged to innovate financial products and services while exploring the application of technologies like AI, big data, and blockchain in capital markets [4]. - There is a call for differentiated and specialized development, with a focus on resource integration and the establishment of influential institutions during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4]. Group 4: Regulatory and Compliance Enhancements - The regulatory body aims to implement differentiated supervision, easing restrictions for high-quality institutions while tightening oversight on underperforming ones [5]. - Strengthening compliance management and risk prevention mechanisms is crucial, particularly in managing conflicts of interest and ensuring fair trading services for different investor types [5]. Group 5: Cultural and Ethical Development - The industry is urged to integrate cultural development into corporate strategies and daily operations, emphasizing reputation management and the cultivation of ethical financial professionals [5].

Core Insights - The report by Ernst & Young highlights that the A-share and Hong Kong IPO markets accounted for 16% and 33% of the global total in terms of IPO numbers and fundraising amounts, respectively [1][3] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange led the world in fundraising with a total of $36 billion, marking a significant recovery in the IPO market [1][4] - Chinese companies secured five positions in the global top ten IPOs, with sectors including automotive, mining, energy, and advanced manufacturing [1][3] A-share Market Analysis - The A-share IPO market is expected to achieve moderate growth in 2025, with a significant increase in fundraising scale compared to the previous year, with average fundraising per IPO rising over 50% to 1 billion yuan [1][3] - The new regulations and policies have led to a rational return of new stock issuance price-to-earnings ratios, with an average return rate of 253% on the first day of listing, the highest in five years [3][4] - The industrial, technology, and materials sectors dominated IPO numbers, while the energy sector rose to the top three in fundraising scale [3][4] Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong IPO market experienced a strong recovery, with fundraising exceeding 200 billion HKD for the first time in four years, marking the second-highest peak in five years [1][4] - Large IPO projects, particularly from mainland A+H and A-share companies, significantly contributed to this resurgence, with over 20 A-share companies expected to list in Hong Kong, raising over 170 billion HKD [4][5] - The average fundraising scale increased by 137% year-on-year, driven by large IPOs, with the industrial and retail sectors being the main contributors [4][5] Strategic Insights - The capital markets of mainland China and Hong Kong are entering a phase of complementary development, with increased collaboration to support national strategic goals [5][6] - New consumption and hard technology are identified as the dual engines driving IPO activities in Hong Kong, supported by policies like the "Science and Technology Enterprise Special Line" [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of technology in the future of listed companies, suggesting that firms should embrace technology and build integrated financial governance systems to prepare for IPOs [6]

Group 1 - The normalization of US-China tensions is positively impacting capital markets in Hong Kong, making them more receptive to new products [1][2] - China's recovery from COVID-19 has been significant across various industries, with Hong Kong emerging as a key hub for capital raising [2][8] - Hong Kong is currently the most active IPO market globally, with a diverse range of sectors attracting investment [8][12] Group 2 - The competitive landscape for equity capital markets (ECM) has evolved, with Chinese banks increasingly participating in smaller deals, indicating a shift in market dynamics [10][12] - The dual listing of companies allows for greater capital raising opportunities and access to a broader investor base, enhancing the competitive environment [11][12] - Investors are seeking specific allocations in sectors like robotics and biotech, highlighting the importance of company-specific insights from investment banks [13][18] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley's wealth management strategy in Asia focuses on connecting clients with global perspectives while catering to high net worth individuals [19][21] - Hong Kong remains a critical financial center for capital flows, serving as a gateway for foreign banks to access the Chinese market [23][32] - The partnership with local firms is essential for providing transparency and local advice, which is crucial for successful capital raising [11][33] Group 4 - Japan's economic landscape is changing, with increased shareholder activism and a focus on governance, making it an attractive market for investment banking and wealth management [27][28] - The demographic challenges in India and China present opportunities for both markets to learn from each other, particularly in developing global competitors [35][36]

Group 1 - The core objective of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's IPO related party transaction disclosure is to ensure issuers provide sufficient information about the nature, amount, pricing fairness, and impact of related party transactions to protect minority shareholders and prevent interest transfer [2][7] - Related parties include controlling shareholders, directors, senior management, and entities controlled by them, while related party transactions encompass various arrangements such as sales of goods or services, asset transfers, and financial transactions [3][4] - Disclosure thresholds for related party transactions during the IPO phase require that the transaction amount or percentage exceeds specified limits, ensuring even one-time transactions above HKD 1 million must be disclosed regardless of their percentage of net profit [2][3] Group 2 - The prospectus must detail the identification of related parties, the nature and background of transactions, transaction amounts, pricing policies, and their impact on the issuer [3][4][6] - If a related party transaction meets the "major related transaction" threshold, independent shareholder approval is required before or after listing, with related parties abstaining from voting [4][7] - Certain related party transactions may be exempt from disclosure if they are conducted on normal commercial terms and do not adversely affect the issuer [5][6] Group 3 - Sponsors are responsible for verifying the authenticity, fairness, and completeness of related party transaction disclosures [5][6] - Ongoing related party transactions disclosed during the IPO must comply with reporting obligations post-IPO, including annual reports detailing transaction amounts and pricing policies [5][6] - The core logic of IPO related party transaction disclosure emphasizes fairness and transparency, with sponsors acting as gatekeepers to ensure compliance with regulations and protect minority shareholders [7]

Core Insights - Hong Kong is experiencing an unprecedented wave of IPO applications, signaling its return as a leading international fundraising center, with nearly 300 applications as of September 30, 2025, a historical high [1][3] - The global IPO market has shown strong recovery, raising $111.6 billion and totaling 930 listings in the first three quarters of 2025, with Hong Kong leading at $23.6 billion in fundraising [1][3] - The robust IPO activity reflects global economic resilience and corporate expansion ambitions, highlighting Hong Kong's unique role as a connector between China and the world [3] Industry Overview - The IPO market is attractive due to high growth potential, with successful listings often being industry leaders or innovative companies, providing investors with opportunities for significant returns [4][6] - Specific sectors, such as technology and biomedicine, tend to attract substantial market interest, leading to oversubscription and high initial returns [4] - For instance, the recent listing of Kin Yip International on Hong Kong's Growth Enterprise Market saw an oversubscription of over 11,000 times, demonstrating the appeal of quality IPOs [4] Benefits of IPOs - IPOs provide companies with essential capital for expansion, research, and debt repayment, facilitating strategic goals [6][7] - Listing enhances brand visibility and market influence, attracting media attention and potential customers [6] - Companies can implement employee incentive programs post-IPO, aligning employee interests with corporate growth and attracting top talent [6][7] - Being publicly listed increases financial flexibility, allowing companies to raise additional funds through stock issuance or bond sales [7] Market Opportunities - The current Hong Kong IPO market is filled with opportunities, serving as a gateway for investors to tap into new economies and for companies to achieve significant growth [9]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has raised the average daily trading volume forecast for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) from HKD 2,400 billion, 2,600 billion, and 2,600 billion for 2025 to 2027, to HKD 2,600 billion, 2,700 billion, and 2,700 billion respectively, while lowering net investment income forecasts by 5% to 7% due to a low interest rate environment, and raising earnings forecasts by 1% to 2%, maintaining a target price of HKD 520 and reiterating a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1 - The expected profit for HKEX in the first three quarters of this year is projected to reach HKD 12.9 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 39% [1] - The average daily trading amount for the third quarter reached HKD 286 billion, setting a historical high [1] - Net investment income is expected to be affected by fluctuations in Hong Kong interbank offered rates (HIBOR), with a lagged impact likely to manifest in the third quarter [1] Group 2 - Profit growth for HKEX from 2026 to 2027 is expected to slow from 24% in 2025 to 8%, unless there is a significant increase in total market capitalization [1] - Relying solely on trading volume growth may not be sufficient to drive revenue [1] - Derivative products are anticipated to become a key growth engine for HKEX [1] Group 3 - Competition between Hong Kong IPOs and Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges is expected to intensify, as mainland China places greater emphasis on new technology sectors and may implement incentive policies to retain key enterprises for domestic listings [1]