策略周报 20250720 投资策略 | 定期报告 指数蓄力，心向 AI 研究结论 ⚫ 指数震荡上行，坚守金融和科技 市场本周继续上涨，我们对指数震荡上行的预期不变 上周我们认为乐观的市场情绪可能还有一定惯性，本周指数继续上涨，前期相对落 后的创业板指数上涨 3.17%，领涨各大指数，上证指数仅上涨 0.69%，符合震荡 上行预期。我们对指数的观点和上周不变，预计指数会在冲高受阻后，进入盘整蓄 力阶段，蓄力阶段不改震荡上行的趋势。 保持高仓位，配置上坚守金融和科技： 我们认为市场在震荡上行趋势中，建议保持高仓位，蓄力阶段结束的时间并不可预 测，蓄力结束后的上行启动速度可能会比较快。我们看好下半年的主线是金融和科 技，坚守主线是避免参与轮动行情的有效手段。 ⚫ 主题方面，重点看好人工智能和机器人 看好人工智能主线持续上涨： 我们认为未来 1-2 个月内人工智能产业的边际变化可能较大。 本周末，OpenAI 最 新模型在 2025 年国际数学奥林匹克竞赛（IMO）上达到了金牌水平，并且其最新 模型 gpt5 有可能即将面世； 我国的 KimiK2 成为全球最强开源模型；下周特斯 拉、谷歌、微软、meta 和苹果等 ...

Group 1: Fixed Income Market - The bond market is experiencing a pullback, with credit products showing less decline compared to interest rates, leading to a significant narrowing of credit spreads [3] - There is a strategy of buying during adjustments, with a focus on low volatility strategies and continued purchases of certificates of deposit [3] - The market is expected to see a configuration window as the credit spreads adjust, with 2-year assets still being viable options for allocation [3] Group 2: Petrochemical Industry - The petrochemical industry has seen significant capacity growth from 2015 to 2024, with ethylene and other key products showing increases of 179% and 219% respectively [5] - The industry faces challenges with overcapacity, particularly in the refining and ethylene sectors, necessitating a control on new capacity and project approvals [5][29] - The need for capacity reduction and project approval tightening is emphasized, as the industry may face excess capacity issues unlike the coal sector [5][29] Group 3: Education Sector - Dou Shen Education has launched a new AI-driven educational product, marking a significant milestone in the education industry [7] - The AI capabilities are expected to enhance educational processes and optimize learning experiences, although it may not immediately disrupt the industry [7][36] - The introduction of AI products in education is seen as a positive development, indicating a shift towards measurable effectiveness and value assurance in educational outcomes [10][36] Group 4: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is showing signs of improvement, with new housing transactions increasing and policies aimed at stabilizing the market being implemented [20][31] - The focus is on non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt relief and policy support, as well as leading firms with product advantages [20][31][33] - The market is expected to see a recovery in demand, particularly in first and second-tier cities, with a positive outlook for the second half of the year [20][31]