Accessible version Kuaishou Growing a leading global AI video application; reinstate at Buy Reinstating Coverage: BUY | PO: 92.00 HKD | Price: 74.80 HKD Within the China internet space, we view Kuaishou as an outstanding AI application name and reinstate coverage at Buy with PO of HKD92. We like the upside potential and catalyst from its Kling AI, a leading global professional AI video generation application. We believe Kling's success elevates Kuaishou's investment narrative from a China- focused short-vid ...

Core Insights - Kuaishou Technology reported strong financial performance in Q2 2025, with total revenue increasing by 13.1% year-over-year to RMB 35.0 billion, driven by AI integration and enhanced user engagement [4][12][9] - The company achieved record-high average daily active users (DAUs) of 409 million, reflecting a 3.4% increase from the previous year, and adjusted net profit reached RMB 5.6 billion with a net margin of 16.0% [4][9][12] - Kuaishou's commitment to AI technology continues to bolster its content and business ecosystems, leading to significant growth in online marketing services, live streaming, and e-commerce [4][12][19] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q2 2025 was RMB 35.0 billion, up from RMB 31.0 billion in Q2 2024, marking a 13.1% increase [9] - Online marketing services revenue rose by 12.8% to RMB 19.8 billion, while live streaming revenue increased by 8.0% to RMB 10.0 billion [5][6] - E-commerce GMV reached RMB 358.9 billion, a 17.6% year-over-year increase, with the number of average monthly paying users in e-commerce hitting 134 million [22][9] User Engagement - Average DAUs on the Kuaishou App reached 409 million, a record high, with average daily time spent per DAU at 126.8 minutes [16][9] - The company reported a 7.5% year-over-year increase in total user time spent on the app, indicating enhanced user engagement [16] - Kuaishou's user growth strategy and optimized traffic allocation have contributed to improved user retention and experience [17] AI Integration - Kuaishou has embedded large AI model capabilities across its platform, enhancing content delivery and operational efficiency for merchants and creators [4][15] - The launch of the Kling AI 2.1 model series in May 2025 has improved product performance and user experience, contributing to revenue growth from AI services [13][14] - The company is exploring new monetization opportunities through AI technology, aiming to empower creators and marketing clients [33] Strategic Initiatives - Kuaishou declared a special dividend of HK$0.46 per share, totaling approximately HK$2.0 billion, reflecting confidence in long-term growth prospects [32] - The company repurchased approximately 38.8 million shares for about HKD 1.9 billion during the first half of 2025, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [9][32] - Kuaishou continues to invest in AI and explore its transformative potential across various business scenarios to drive sustainable growth [33]

Market Overview - A-shares opened high and closed at a ten-year high, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.85% and trading volume reaching 2.81 trillion yuan, the highest since October 2024[3][16] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.37%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 0.65%[12] - U.S. stocks showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones down 0.1% and the S&P 500 virtually unchanged, as investors awaited key earnings reports and the Jackson Hole meeting[10] Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China emphasized a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential for further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts if domestic demand does not recover sufficiently[5] - The report highlighted a focus on improving the efficiency of capital allocation and supporting high-quality consumption finance to sustain domestic demand expansion[5] Commodity and Forex Movements - International oil prices rose by approximately 1%, with WTI crude oil closing at $63.42 per barrel, driven by geopolitical developments[27] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.3%, while the euro appreciated by 12.6% year-to-date against the dollar[26] Stock Performance Highlights - Notable stock movements included NetEase, which is expected to see stable growth in its gaming segment, with a target price of $143, up from $130.30[8] - Mobileye's stock is projected to rise as it expands its advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) business, with a target price of $17.6[8] Sector Performance - In the A-share market, sectors such as information technology and healthcare saw gains of 2.2% and 1.0%, respectively, while real estate and energy sectors faced declines[17] - In Hong Kong, the healthcare and consumer goods sectors both rose by 1.9%, while the energy sector fell by 1.7%[12] Global Economic Indicators - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.33%, reflecting market expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming announcements[30] - The report noted that inflationary pressures and fiscal risks are key concerns for the UK, with the 30-year government bond yield reaching its highest level since 1998[30]

Summary of Kuaishou Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kuaishou Technology (1024.HK) - **Industry**: Generative AI and E-commerce Key Highlights 1. **Kling AI Upgrades**: Kuaishou showcased its latest Kling AI upgrades at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) in Shanghai, enhancing video generation capabilities with new features like automated audio integration and expanded use cases in advertising, marketing, animation, game publishing, eCommerce, and tourism [1][4] 2. **Revenue Projections**: Kling AI is projected to generate over US$140 million in revenue for 2025 and exceed US$200 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by the end of the year [1] 3. **Smart Canvas Feature**: The new 'smart canvas' feature allows for real-time collaboration among multiple users, improving the efficiency of content creation [4] 4. **Corporate Client Growth**: Kling AI has attracted over 45 million creators globally and serves more than 20,000 corporate users since the launch of Kling 2.0 [4] Advertising Policy Impact 1. **New Advertising Guidelines**: The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) has introduced new advertising guidelines that classify traffic costs as advertising expenses, limiting pre-tax deductions to 15% of annual revenue for e-commerce businesses [1][5] 2. **Potential Effects on Kuaishou**: The new policy may impact merchants heavily reliant on traffic acquisition, potentially limiting their advertising budgets, especially in the livestreaming e-commerce sector [5] 3. **Monetization Rate**: Kuaishou has a lower-than-peer monetization rate of 3.5% (ads + commission as a percentage of GMV) but is expected to grow faster in the second half of the year, particularly in non-e-commerce ads [5][14] Financial Forecasts 1. **Revenue Growth**: Kuaishou's ad revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of RMB 126.9 billion in 2025, increasing to RMB 165.9 billion by 2027 [17] 2. **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Forecasted EPS is expected to rise from RMB 4.02 in 2025 to RMB 5.88 by 2027 [17] 3. **Valuation**: Kuaishou is rated as a "Buy" with a 12-month target price of HK$68, indicating a downside potential of 6.2% from the current price of HK$72.50 [15][17] Competitive Positioning 1. **Kling AI vs. Competitors**: The latest Kling 2.1 model has achieved cost reductions while maintaining performance, positioning it competitively against peers like ByteDance [13] 2. **Market Share**: Kuaishou is expected to remain one of the faster-growing advertising platforms, with a focus on increasing monetization from shelf-based e-commerce and improving ad load/conversion rates for non-e-commerce ads [14] Risks and Considerations 1. **Key Risks**: Potential risks include slower-than-expected recovery in ad budgets, weaker monetization, and slower growth in user engagement [15] 2. **Regulatory Environment**: The impact of new advertising regulations and their implementation will be closely monitored, particularly in Q4 [5] Conclusion Kuaishou Technology is positioned for growth in the generative AI space with its Kling AI platform, while navigating new advertising regulations that may impact its e-commerce operations. The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth and maintain a competitive edge in the advertising market.

Summary of Kuaishou Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kuaishou Technology - **Ticker**: 1024.HK - **Market Cap**: USD 31.534 billion as of July 18, 2025 [19] Industry Context - **Industry**: Internet Software & Services - **Key Competitors**: ByteDance's Seedance, Google's Veo 3, and Kuaishou's Kling 2.1 [8] Key Insights Competitive Landscape - The video generation model market has low entry barriers and switching costs, leading to users experimenting with various models rather than committing to one [2] - Chinese models are offered at a 40-80% discount compared to Google's Veo 3 subscription [2] - Each model has unique strengths: - **Veo 3**: Advanced audio generation and cinematic video quality - **Kling AI**: Editing tools and style control through image input - **Seedance**: Strong prompt adherence and multi-shot capabilities [2] Financial Performance - **Kling AI** reached an annualized revenue run rate (ARR) of USD 100 million by March 2025, with monthly bookings exceeding RMB 100 million [3] - Revenue breakdown: 70% from prosumer subscriptions, 30% from corporate clients' API fees, with 70% of revenue coming from overseas [3] - Kuaishou's revenue and adjusted net profit are projected to grow 11% and 7% year-over-year to RMB 34 billion and RMB 5 billion, respectively [4][14] Valuation Metrics - Kuaishou's target price raised to HKD 82 from HKD 75, reflecting a lower weighted average cost of capital (WACC) [4] - Kling AI's revenue estimate increased to USD 120 million for 2025 [4] - Valuation comparison with vertical AI peers shows an average price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 61x, suggesting Kling AI could be valued at USD 7 billion or HKD 13 per share [3][12] Growth Projections - Expected growth in various segments: - Advertising revenue: 12% year-over-year - E-commerce GMV: 14% year-over-year - Live-streaming revenue: 5% year-over-year [14] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include regulatory changes affecting tipping and short-video content, increased content auditing costs, macroeconomic headwinds, and intensified competition in advertising and e-commerce [15] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Kuaishou: - 2025: RMB 141.926 billion - 2026: RMB 155.624 billion - 2027: RMB 166.763 billion [16] - Net profit estimates: - 2025: RMB 17.313 billion - 2026: RMB 22.588 billion - 2027: RMB 27.911 billion [16] Conclusion - Kuaishou Technology is positioned for growth in the competitive landscape of video generation models, with strong revenue projections and a favorable valuation outlook. However, it faces regulatory and competitive risks that could impact its performance in the near term.

Core Viewpoint - The disparity between the overseas AI chain and the domestic AI chain is widening, with overseas companies showing strong recovery while domestic counterparts lag behind [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Global tech stocks faced pressure due to tariff policies in early April, but have since rebounded, particularly in the AI sector, with companies like NVIDIA and Microsoft reaching new highs [1] - In contrast, domestic AI companies, including those in foundational computing power, algorithm services, and application solutions, have not experienced similar rebounds, leading to a divergence in stock performance [1] Group 2: Domestic AI Developments - Despite the slower commercialization of domestic AI applications, there are emerging local products with significant revenue potential, such as Kuaishou's Kling AI, which achieved an annualized revenue run rate exceeding $100 million within 10 months [4] - The domestic AI models are continuously improving, with significant increases in token usage, indicating a growing demand for cloud computing power to support AI applications [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investment focus is suggested on domestic AI computing power chains, including AI inference chips (e.g., Cambrian, Haiguang Information) and AI servers (e.g., Inspur, Huaqin Technology, Lenovo Group) [5] - Notable AI applications to consider include consumer-facing products like Kuaishou-W and Wanjing Technology, as well as business solutions from companies like Hand Information and Glodon [5]

Investment Ratings - Kuaishou: Buy rated, share price increased by 55% YTD and 28% post 1Q result [3] - Tencent Music: Buy rated, share price increased by 80% YTD and 37% post 1Q result [5] - NetEase: Buy rated, share price increased by 52% YTD and 25% post 1Q result [11] - Focus Media: Buy rated, share price increased by 11% YTD and 8% post 1Q result [14] - Bilibili: Buy rated, share price increased by 31% YTD and 22% post 1Q result [18] Core Insights - The report highlights a strong rally in major games and entertainment names post 1Q25 results, driven by resilient growth profiles, disciplined competition, AI applications potential, and rising expectations on game pipelines [1] - Key focus areas for the upcoming earnings season include advertising outlook, game momentum into the summer peak season, AI applications monetization, and pricing strategies [2] - The report anticipates that further upside in share prices will require continued earnings delivery or new growth engines contributing to revenue growth in future years [1] Kuaishou - Kuaishou is expected to deliver in-line results for 2Q25 with a 12% year-over-year growth in ads and a 13% growth in GMV, with a 3Q25 outlook of 14% ads growth [3][4] - The company is positioned to improve sequential ads from 2Q onwards due to higher monetization efforts, despite competition from peers [4] - The revenue target for Kling AI has been raised from US$100 million to over US$140 million for FY25 [4] Tencent Music - Tencent Music is projected to achieve a 17% year-over-year growth in music revenue for 2Q25, with an ARPU increase of 9% [8] - The company is expected to maintain good momentum in ARPU due to lower discounts on SVIP subscriptions and new content initiatives [9] - Long-term growth visibility remains strong, with expectations of mid-teen year-over-year music revenue growth [10] NetEase - NetEase is expected to report a 15% year-over-year growth in game revenue for 2Q25, with operating profit increasing by 20% [11][12] - The company is focusing on updates for its 2026 game pipeline, with expectations of stable performance from legacy titles [13] - The stock is trading at 16X 2025E PE, with potential for further EPS upgrades [13] Focus Media - Focus Media's revenue is expected to increase by 1% year-over-year in 2Q25, with operating profit up by 3% [14] - The company anticipates a 6% year-over-year sales increase in 2H25 due to rising ad demand from internet and selective consumer players [15] - The collaboration with Alipay aims to target 400K devices across tier 1/2 locations [17] Bilibili - Bilibili's game sales are projected to increase by 58% year-over-year in 2Q25, with ads up by 18% [18] - The company is expected to face a high comparison in 2H24 but has reset market expectations lower, with potential catalysts from new game approvals [19] - Despite valuation concerns, Bilibili is expected to deliver faster than industry growth in ads and livestreaming [20] Price Targets and Estimates - For NetEase, revenue estimates for 2025-27E have been slightly adjusted downwards, while net profit estimates have been raised [21] - Focus Media's revenue estimates have been trimmed slightly, but the price target has been revised up to Rmb8.3 [21] - Across game coverage, price targets and estimates for XD have been raised due to solid new game releases and better profit margins [21]

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou is expected to report inline 2Q25 results with a projected 11% YoY revenue growth and 14.6% adjusted net profit margin, driven by accelerated monetization of Kling AI [1][3] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - Total revenue for 2Q25 is estimated to rise 11% YoY to RMB34.5 billion, aligning with consensus expectations [3] - Revenue contributions from streaming, online advertising, and eCommerce are projected to grow by 5% YoY, 12% YoY, and 22% YoY respectively [3] - Kling AI is forecasted to generate approximately RMB270 million in revenue for 2Q25, indicating continued acceleration in monetization efforts [3] Group 2: AI Strategy Execution - The company is effectively executing its AI strategies, particularly with Kling AI, focusing on version upgrades, internal ad and eCommerce integrations, and expansion into various industry verticals [2] - Kling AI is expected to contribute RMB1.2 billion in revenue (0.8% of total revenue) in 2025, driven by improved paying penetration among global users [2] - The company maintains stable forecasts for online advertising and eCommerce GMV despite raising Kling revenue estimates, indicating confidence in the core business [2] Group 3: Operational Adjustments - Total operating expenses assumptions for FY2025-27 have been raised by 1-2% due to committed investments in AI, leading to a 1% reduction in adjusted EPS estimates for FY2025-26 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the China Internet sector, particularly focusing on AI applications and their monetization potential. Core Insights - The report highlights the steady engagement trends in AI applications, with significant growth in daily token usage and monetization strategies across various platforms. It emphasizes the competitive pricing of AI models and the increasing adoption of AI functionalities in existing applications. Summary by Sections AI Adoption and Engagement - Key investor focuses include rising use cases for AI across both consumer (to-C) and business (to-B) applications, with notable engagement from platforms like DeepSeek and Bytedance's Doubao, which reported a daily token usage of 16.4 trillion in May 2025, a 29% month-over-month increase [1] - The overall top 400 mobile apps saw an 8% year-over-year increase in total time spent in May 2025, with Douyin's main app engagement up 23% year-over-year [1][6] Monetization Strategies - The report notes steady progress in AI monetization, particularly with Kuaishou's Kling achieving an Annualized Revenue Run Rate (ARR) surpassing US$100 million, and other companies also reporting scalable ARR for their AI products [1][6] - Subscription-based productivity tools and advertising-based AI search engines are highlighted as key monetization avenues, with Alibaba's Quark and Baidu's AI chatbots expected to leverage adtech for improved transaction capabilities [1] Competitive Pricing and Model Developments - The report discusses the competitive pricing landscape, with Kuaishou's Kling 2.1 version offering a significant cost reduction of 60-80% compared to its predecessor, and ByteDance's Seedance 1.0 outperforming Google's video generation model [1][6] - The report also mentions the advancements in multi-modal capabilities and the launch of various AI models by leading companies, indicating a strong competitive environment in the AI sector [1][6] Engagement Trends Across Verticals - Engagement in eCommerce platforms accelerated to 10% year-over-year in May, with JD's time spent increasing by 87% year-over-year, driven by food delivery initiatives [1] - Social engagement remained stable with a 6% year-over-year increase, while gaming engagement picked up to 6% year-over-year in May [1][6] Stock Preferences and Recommendations - The report recommends a dual-pronged approach to stock picking, emphasizing defensive sub-sectors and domestic policy beneficiaries with discounted valuations. Preferred stocks include Tencent in gaming, JD in eCommerce, and Kuaishou for AI application monetization [1][6]

Core Insights - The competition among major tech companies has entered a new phase, with AI technology becoming a significant driver of revenue growth in their latest financial reports for Q1 2025 [1][6] - Major players like Baidu, Tencent, and Alibaba have reported substantial increases in AI-related revenues, indicating a shift from AI as a backend efficiency tool to a front-line revenue generator [1][6] Group 1: Financial Performance - Baidu's Q1 2025 revenue reached 32.45 billion yuan, a 3% year-on-year increase, with generative AI and foundational model revenues experiencing triple-digit growth [1] - Tencent's revenue from AI-driven marketing services grew by 20% year-on-year, reaching 31.9 billion yuan [1] - Alibaba's AI-related product revenue has maintained triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters [1] - Kuaishou's Kling AI generated over 150 million yuan in revenue in Q1 2025, serving over 10,000 enterprise clients [1] Group 2: AI Integration and Business Models - Major companies have transitioned from using AI primarily for efficiency improvements to integrating it into core business lines, with a focus on cloud services and advertising [2][3] - Baidu and Alibaba emphasize foundational technology output, while Tencent and Kuaishou focus on scenario-based applications [2][3] - The introduction of DeepSeek has catalyzed a shift towards more open AI integration, enhancing model capabilities and reducing costs [4][5] Group 3: Cloud Services and Advertising Growth - Cloud services have become a primary driver of AI revenue growth, with Baidu's intelligent cloud revenue surging by 42% year-on-year and Alibaba's cloud revenue increasing by 18% [6] - AI marketing and advertising have emerged as a second growth engine, with Baidu's search ads seeing 35% of mobile search results generated by AI, up from 22% in January [7][11] - Tencent's advertising click-through rates have improved significantly due to AI, with some rates increasing from 0.1% to 3.0% [7][12] Group 4: Market Response and Future Outlook - The stock market has reacted positively, with Alibaba and Kuaishou shares rising over 40% in 2025, and Tencent and Baidu also seeing gains [9] - The global AI advertising market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a rise from $1.023 billion in 2024 to $10.32 billion by 2031, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 39.7% [13] - Despite the promising growth in AI advertising, challenges remain, including high R&D costs and competitive pressures that may impact profitability [14]