（原标题：美银证券：中资软件首选股金蝶国际(00268)、美图公司(01357)及金山办公(688111.SH)） 智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，该行覆盖的中国软件公司股价于2025年平均上升16%，跑输MSCI中国指数23%升幅。展望2026年，该 行对软件需求前景持审慎乐观态度，因为AI变现加速及软件进口替代趋势，将与多个垂直行业的需求疲弱并存。 总体而言，该行预测中国软件及IT服务行业于2026年收入同比增长12%，2025年预测为同比增长13%。在下调2025-2026年收入预测约2%后，预计 覆盖的软件公司2026年平均收入同比增长加速至14%，2025年为7%。 该行对企业资源规划(ERP)、照片编辑软件及办公软件板块的公司持选择性正面看法，这些标的在SaaS模式及AI驱动下增长能见度较高; 但对网络 安全及地产软件则保持谨慎，原因是需求偏弱。首选股分别有金蝶国际(00268)、美图公司(01357)及金山办公(688111.SH)，均获"买入"评级。 ...

总体而言，该行预测中国软件及IT服务行业于2026年收入同比增长12%，2025年预测为同比增长13%。 在下调2025-2026年收入预测约2%后，预计覆盖的软件公司2026年平均收入同比增长加速至14%，2025 年为7%。 美银证券发布研报称，该行覆盖的中国软件公司股价于2025年平均上升16%，跑输MSCI中国指数23% 升幅。展望2026年，该行对软件需求前景持审慎乐观态度，因为AI变现加速及软件进口替代趋势，将 与多个垂直行业的需求疲弱并存。 该行对企业资源规划(ERP)、照片编辑软件及办公软件板块的公司持选择性正面看法，这些标的在SaaS 模式及AI驱动下增长能见度较高;但对网络安全及地产软件则保持谨慎，原因是需求偏弱。首选股分别 有金蝶国际(00268)、美图公司(01357)及金山办公(688111.SH)，均获"买入"评级。 ...

总体而言，该行预测中国软件及IT服务行业于2026年收入同比增长12%，2025年预测为同比增长13%。 在下调2025-2026年收入预测约2%后，预计覆盖的软件公司2026年平均收入同比增长加速至14%，2025 年为7%。 智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，该行覆盖的中国软件公司股价于2025年平均上升16%，跑输 MSCI中国指数23%升幅。展望2026年，该行对软件需求前景持审慎乐观态度，因为AI变现加速及软件 进口替代趋势，将与多个垂直行业的需求疲弱并存。 该行对企业资源规划(ERP)、照片编辑软件及办公软件板块的公司持选择性正面看法，这些标的在SaaS 模式及AI驱动下增长能见度较高; 但对网络安全及地产软件则保持谨慎，原因是需求偏弱。首选股分别 有金蝶国际(00268)、美图公司(01357)及金山办公(688111.SH)，均获"买入"评级。 ...

格隆汇1月7日｜申万宏源研究研报指出，复盘同花顺业绩，公司收入受资本市场活跃度影响较大。同 时，同花顺也具备市场平淡期业绩韧性。韧性来源包括：1）市场成交额下滑期间积极布局新领域，包 括产品创新、客户拓展、技术布局等；2）同花顺的商业模式和产业链地位带来"利润表韧性"。根据易 观千帆上半年发布的数据，同花顺证券类APP中大幅领先第二名的东方财富，根据证券服务应用市场上 半年平均月活计算，同花顺市占率为21%。公司有四大要素，战略定力、产品技术核心、布局全面、C 端优势。C、B端AI均已开始变现，B端近期中标国泰海通大单证明技术实力，C端问财AI 已开始阶梯 收费。基于对同花顺业务梳理和增量重新评估，预计同花顺2025-2027年归母净利润分别为 28.54、 35.13、43.08亿元，增速分别为57%、23%、23%；此前预期归母净利润分别为22.86、27.49、31.59亿 元。当前同花顺2026年PE为51x，仍有20%以上的上涨空间，维持"买入"评级。 ...

图片由AI生成 临近2025年岁末，AI圈又沸腾了起来。 12月30日，Meta宣布收购AI应用Manus背后的公司蝴蝶效应。 有消息称，此番收购金额高达数十亿美元。作为Manus的早期投资者，真格基金官方发文表示，这是 Meta自成立以来第三大的并购，仅次于WhatsApp和Scale AI。 多位接近交易的人士透露，从双方正式接触到达成协议，谈判周期仅十余天。"快到还怀疑过这是不是 一个假的offer。"真格基金合伙人刘元表示。 收购完成后，蝴蝶效应将保持独立运作，创始人肖弘出任Meta副总裁。 三年，估值增长200倍 蝴蝶效应的融资节奏极快。 2023年2月完成种子轮融资，投后估值1400万美元，投资人是真格基金。当时，蝴蝶效应第一款产品 Monica刚上线不久，这是一款AI浏览器插件。 半年后，2023年8月，蝴蝶效应完成天使轮，估值升至5000万美元，真格基金继续跟投。 2024年11月A轮，蝴蝶效应估值达到了8500万美元。这一轮由红杉中国、腾讯、王慧文、真格基金共同 投资。此时，Monica海外用户已突破1000万，是中国AI行业少有的盈利产品。 2025年4月B轮，蝴蝶效应估值近5亿美元，领投 ...

这一叙事迅速传导至资本市场。甲骨文股价从 4 月 21 日的约 122 美元一路上涨，在 9 月初一度冲至 320 美元以上，也让 81 岁的联合创始人埃里森以约 3832 亿美元的身家，短暂超过马斯克，重回世界首 富宝座。几乎在同一时期，主导云计算基建项目的 Clay Magouyrk 被提拔为甲骨文联席 CEO。 美国时间12月中旬，有报道称，甲骨文在美国数据中心项目的主要支持者Blue Owl Capital将不会资助密 歇根州一个价值100亿美元的数据中心。 这被视为百亿项目融资"告吹"，该消息迅速放大并引发市场对AI泡沫的担忧。实际上，自9月初见顶以 来，甲骨文股价已下跌近45%。 作为近两年推动美股牛市的关键因素，AI行业对于明年市场的走向依然至关重要。难道，美国此轮 AI 基建周期已经提前来到了拐点？ 甲骨文的AI故事不香了？ 7 个月前，甲骨文官方账号在社交媒体上发布了一段颇具象征意味的视频。画面中，时任甲骨文云基础 设施负责人 Clay Magouyrk 正带领 OpenAI CEO 山姆·奥特曼（Sam Altman）参观德克萨斯州阿比林 （Abilene）首个"星际之门（Stargate ...

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's significant data center project in Michigan, valued at $10 billion, has lost funding support from Blue Owl Capital, raising concerns about the AI bubble and leading to a nearly 45% drop in Oracle's stock price since its peak in early September [2][17]. Group 1: Oracle's AI Investment and Market Reaction - Oracle's stock price surged from approximately $122 on April 21 to over $320 by early September, driven by expectations of substantial AI-related revenue from OpenAI [7][21]. - As investors shifted focus from growth narratives to the costs of realizing these promises, Oracle's stock began to decline, indicating a critical point in the AI infrastructure cycle [22][29]. - Jim Chanos criticized Oracle's rapid balance sheet expansion, suggesting that its return on new capital investments is only about 8.5%, compared to Microsoft's nearly 40% [8][22]. Group 2: Financing and Credit Market Dynamics - The private credit market is reassessing risks, with Blue Owl Capital withdrawing from the Michigan project due to increased financing costs and stricter terms, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards AI spending and Oracle's debt levels [10][25]. - Analysts are questioning the reliability of OpenAI's commitments, with concerns that OpenAI may not fulfill its promise of $300 billion in computing power payments to Oracle, which has a remaining performance obligation (RPO) of $523 billion as of November 30 [12][26][27]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Future Uncertainties - OpenAI's position in the AI market is becoming uncertain, especially with new partnerships with Microsoft and Amazon, which diversify its computing power sources and challenge Oracle's role [13][27]. - The pending agreement between OpenAI and Nvidia, which could involve up to $100 billion in investment, remains unfinalized, adding to the uncertainty surrounding Oracle's future revenue from AI [28]. - The market is increasingly focused on which companies can sustain prolonged periods of capital investment without immediate returns, with Oracle's traditional cash flow model being disrupted by the high upfront costs of AI infrastructure [14][29].

Core Viewpoint - UBS Securities analyst Xiong Wei believes that by 2026, the application cases of AI in China will become more abundant and the monetization pace will accelerate, indicating a low likelihood of an "AI bubble" in the current stage [1]. Group 1: AI Development in China - By 2025, investor interest and recognition of AI development in China are expected to increase due to advancements in large model technology, computing infrastructure, and the widespread adoption by enterprises and consumers [1]. - In 2026, domestic large model capabilities are anticipated to rapidly iterate, catching up with their American counterparts, while both China and the U.S. will follow similar monetization paths in AI applications, particularly in cloud services and advertising [1]. - The localization of computing power is expected to continue, with breakthroughs in chip performance, leading to supernodes taking a larger share of inference and training workloads [1]. Group 2: Factors Mitigating AI Bubble Risks - The limited cycle of financing is a key reason for the low likelihood of an "AI bubble," as leading AI model developers are funded by internal cash flows from parent companies rather than third-party financing [1]. - Major Chinese internet companies are adopting a pragmatic approach to AI investments, focusing on return on investment and operational efficiency rather than excessive initial spending [1]. - The stability of the Internet Data Center (IDC) deployment rate and regulatory control over new supply, including strict management of electricity quotas by the National Development and Reform Commission, help prevent overbuilding [1]. Group 3: AI Disruption in Vertical Industries - The discussion around AI's potential to disrupt vertical industries is increasing among investors, but the pace of disruption in China may remain slow due to a more fragmented landscape of AI chatbots compared to the dominance of ChatGPT and Gemini in the U.S. [2]. - Vertical industry companies are actively integrating AI and intelligent agents into their applications, but the high entry barriers in sectors like online travel agencies (OTA) and online music content and user operations make it difficult for AI to easily replace existing capabilities [2].

梦晨 发自 凹非寺 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI ChatGPT广告代码泄露，就在发布三周年之际，终于要开始变现了？ 在ChatGPT安卓APP测试版的代码中，发现了多个与广告相关的引用。 就在2024年5月奥特曼还称ChatGPT加广告是 "最后的手段"和"令人不安的" 。 到2025年10月，他已经改口 "觉得广告有点令人反感，但并非完全不可取" 。 到现在从技术细节来看，这次的广告系统已经相当成熟，距离正式上线不远了。 OpenAI的运营模式面临着巨大的财务压力，探索广告变现终于还是提上了日程。 汇丰银行最近给OpenAI算了一笔账，运营ChatGPT的开销中仅维持其算力基础设施每年就可能需要数千亿美元。 目前ChatGPT Plus订阅服务每月收费20美元，加上API授权收入，远远无法覆盖这些成本。 OpenAI在2029年之前将持续处于亏损状态，累计亏损可能超过1000亿美元。 ChatGPT变现，奥特曼变脸 开发者Tibor首次曝光了这个重磅消息。他在ChatGPT安卓应用1.2025.329测试版的代码中，发现了多个与广告相关的引用。 代码中明确出现了"ads feature"字样，还包含了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the exploitation of elderly individuals in lower-tier cities by AI scammers, who take advantage of their limited understanding of technology and financial literacy, leading to significant financial losses for these vulnerable groups [6][20]. Group 1: AI Scams Targeting the Elderly - Scammers are targeting elderly individuals with various AI-related schemes, such as "AI financial literacy courses" and "AI digital grandchildren," which are prevalent on social media and short video platforms [6][21]. - Many elderly victims, like Song Yanyu, are lured into these scams by promises of easy income through AI-generated content, often leading to substantial financial losses [9][13]. - The scams are particularly effective in economically disadvantaged areas, where the elderly are more susceptible to misinformation and less likely to have access to protective resources [21][23]. Group 2: Psychological Manipulation - Scammers utilize emotional manipulation, creating a sense of companionship through AI-generated interactions, which makes elderly individuals more likely to trust and invest in these fraudulent schemes [26][28]. - The loneliness experienced by many elderly individuals exacerbates their vulnerability, as they seek connection and validation through digital means [27][28]. - The psychological impact of these scams extends beyond financial loss, affecting the victims' self-worth and mental health [28]. Group 3: The Role of Technology - The article discusses how the rapid advancement of AI technology has created a gap in understanding among older populations, making them prime targets for exploitation [20][23]. - Scammers employ sophisticated AI tools to create convincing content, including deepfake videos and AI-generated voices, which further complicates the ability of victims to discern fraud [27][28]. - Despite regulations aimed at identifying AI-generated content, many elderly individuals lack the knowledge to recognize these indicators, leaving them exposed to scams [27][28].