金山软件（03888.HK） 2025 年 08 月 21 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/20 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 33.800 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 47.500/19.740 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 473.34 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 473.34 | | 总股本(亿股) | 14.00 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 14.00 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 75.95 | 计算机/软件开发 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 160% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 金山软件 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《WPS 变现能力仍有待观察，游戏业 务或实现高基数下的稳健增长—港股 公司信息更新报告》-2025.5.30 《游戏回归平稳增速，AI 驱动 WPS 及金山云增长提速 —港股公司信息 更新报告》-2025.3.23 《游戏显著超预期，WPS B 端迎复苏 拐点 —港股公司信息更新报告》 -2024.11.20 WPS B 端景气度较优，关注后续《解限机》优化 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Tencent Holdings (00700) has exceeded expectations in its Q2 performance, with a 15% year-on-year revenue growth, surpassing market expectations by 3% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 15% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 3% [1] - Adjusted operating profit rose by 18% year-on-year, exceeding expectations by 5% [1] - Gross margin expansion contributed significantly to the strong performance [1] Business Segments - Online gaming and advertising businesses showed strong performance, providing visibility for revenue in the second half of the year [1] - Upcoming launches such as "Delta Action" PC version, "Valorant" mobile game, and the 10th anniversary event of "Honor of Kings" are expected to drive growth [1] Investment Outlook - UBS maintains Tencent as a top industry pick, raising the target price from HKD 710 to HKD 720 and reiterating a "Buy" rating [1] - Earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been increased by 3% to 4% [1] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure decreased by 30% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 [1] - UBS views this reduction as a short-term impact due to GPU import restrictions, with management indicating a continued diversified chip strategy and efficiency improvements [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Tencent's Q2 performance significantly exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 15%, surpassing market expectations by 3% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 15% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 3% [1] - Adjusted operating profit rose by 18% year-on-year, surpassing expectations by 5%, primarily due to margin expansion [1] Group 2: Business Segments - Strong performance in online gaming and advertising is expected to provide revenue visibility for the second half of the year [1] - Upcoming launches such as "Delta Action" PC version, "Valorant" mobile game, and the 10th anniversary event of "Honor of Kings" are anticipated to drive growth [1] Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Strategy - Q2 capital expenditure decreased by 30% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to short-term impacts from GPU import restrictions [1] - Management plans to continue a diversified chip strategy and improve efficiency [1] Group 4: Analyst Ratings and Forecasts - UBS reaffirms Tencent as a top industry pick, raising the target price from HKD 710 to HKD 720 [1] - Earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been increased by 3% to 4% [1]

瑞银发表研究报告指，Meta第二季业绩表现强劲，广告收入增长超出预期，相应将2026至2027年收入 预测上调8%，考虑到营运开支将提升，亦将2026至2027年总支出预测再上调5%及7%。瑞银表示看好通 过商业AI、Meta AI搜索等新变现渠道，Meta将拥有长期增长潜力，将2026至2027年经调整每股盈利预 测上调13%及9%，维持"买入"评级，目标价从812美元上调至897美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Samsung is enhancing its trade-in strategy to narrow the "value perception gap" with Apple in the high-end smartphone market, focusing on improving the resale value of devices, accelerating the adoption of premium models, and increasing user loyalty [1][4]. Group 1: Trade-In Strategies - Samsung's "Overtrade" incentive has been a long-standing promotional tool, offering additional trade-in value for specific models to boost high-end device sales, effectively lowering the entry barrier for flagship models [2][7]. - The Galaxy Club, active in the US and UK, guarantees 50% buyback value within 12 to 15 months, along with 0% interest installment payments and service rewards, aiming to shorten the device upgrade cycle [5][6]. - The newly launched Galaxy Trade-In program in South Korea and France allows users to recycle old Galaxy devices at any time, enhancing user convenience and extending device lifecycles [6][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Performance - The average resale value of the iPhone 15 after one year is 50%, while the Galaxy S24 series stands at only 40%, highlighting the importance of Samsung's trade-in strategies to improve resale value [4][8]. - Samsung's global average selling price (ASP) increased by 45% from $389 to $528 between 2022 and Q1 2025, with devices priced above $600 rising from 18% to 32% of total sales [2][8]. - The combination of Galaxy Club, Galaxy Trade-In, and Overtrade strategies aims to maximize trade-in values, making high-end models more affordable and enhancing brand loyalty [7][8]. Group 3: Balancing Sales and Sustainability - Smartphone manufacturers face the challenge of relying on new device sales for quarterly financial goals while also needing to expand the second-hand market to enhance software ecosystems and user bases [11][12]. - Samsung's Trade-In program addresses this conflict by subsidizing trade-ins, lowering the entry barrier for high-end models while injecting quality devices into the second-hand market [12]. - A comprehensive strategy that integrates hardware sales, service innovation, and ecosystem development is essential for achieving a balance between short-term performance and long-term sustainability [12].

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou is expected to report a decline in net profit for Q1 2025, with potential challenges in its e-commerce and advertising business due to competition and market uncertainties [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - Kuaishou's net profit for Q1 2025 is projected to decrease by 6.1% to 3.87 billion RMB [1] - Adjusted net profit is anticipated to grow by 3.2% to 4.53 billion RMB [1] - Revenue is expected to increase by 9.6% to 32.24 billion RMB [1] Group 2: Business Segment Insights - E-commerce growth is a key focus, with potential pressure from competitors like Douyin reducing merchant commission rates [1] - The outlook for e-commerce and advertising businesses is uncertain due to tariff uncertainties and increased competition [1] Group 3: AI Monetization Updates - Kuaishou's self-developed video generation tool, Kling, has generated over 100 million RMB in revenue since its commercialization as of February 2025 [1] - The launch of Kling AI 2.0 in April has improved video generation capabilities [1]