研究员：刘一鸣/张觉尹/潘若婵 本报告导读： 机构：国泰海通证券 理想汽车25Q3 盈利能力收Mega 召回扰动。考虑到公司技术迭代加速，智能化属性突出，维持"增持"评 级。 公司积极推进组织变革，战略回归创业公司管理模式。公司2025 年第三季度业绩电话会披露，公司将 从25Q4 起坚定回归"创业公司"管理模式，并将其作为公司进入第二个十年阶段的三大关键决策之一。 我们认为，此次组织变革体现了公司对发展阶段与行业环境的清醒认知，也展现出持续推进智能化转型 的战略决心。 风险提示：新能源车销量不及预期；原材料价格大幅上涨。 理想汽车发布2025 年第三季度的未经审计财务业绩。公司25Q3 实现营收274 亿元，同比-36%，环 比-10%；净亏损6.2 亿元，同环比转亏。展望25Q4，公司预计车辆交付量10.0-11.0 万辆，同比-37% 至-31%；收入总额预计为265-292 亿元，同比-40%至-34%。 25Q3 盈利能力受理想Mega 召回扰动。公司25Q3 实现新车交付9.3万辆，同比-39%，环比-16%。根据 我们测算，公司25Q3 单车收入约28 万元，同比+0.7 万元，环比+1.7 万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][18]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 25.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 41% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 650 million yuan, up by 60 million yuan year-on-year, but down by 2.9 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company is advancing its AI strategy, with significant developments expected in the second half of the year, including the launch of new models and AI technologies [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company sold 93,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 41% [7]. - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles slightly declined to 266,000 yuan, down by 36,000 yuan year-on-year and 3,000 yuan quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 20.5%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percentage points but an increase of 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The company’s R&D expense ratio was 9.7%, down by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year and up by 4.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [7]. Sales and Production Outlook - The company is expected to launch new models in the i series, with the first model, i8, set to debut in July 2025, which is anticipated to boost sales [7]. - The total sales forecast for 2025 is 589,000 vehicles, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, with 518,000 from extended-range vehicles and 71,000 from pure electric vehicles [7]. - The report predicts that the company’s monthly sales could reach 70,000 to 80,000 vehicles by the end of the year, driven by new model launches and AI advancements [7]. Valuation and Price Target - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 162.3 billion, 203.3 billion, and 228.3 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 25%, and 12% [8]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period have been revised to 9.6 billion, 13.4 billion, and 15.2 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 22.1, 15.8, and 13.9 [8]. - The target price for the company is set between 122.65 and 147.18 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 13% to 36% based on the closing price on May 29, 2025 [2][8].

Summary of Li Auto Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Auto - **Industry**: Electric Vehicles (EV) Key Points and Arguments 1. **Sales Performance**: Li Auto's weekly order volume is strong following the L series facelift, with expectations for sales peaks in May-June and July-August. The range-extended series is stable, with monthly sales projected to remain above 40,000 units, although potential impacts from the end-of-year tax reduction on demand for next year should be monitored [2][5][6] 2. **New Electric Models**: The company is optimistic about the upcoming pure electric models, I8 and I6, with I8 expected to sell around 5,000 units monthly after its July launch. This model is anticipated to attract existing Li ONE users looking to upgrade, as competition in this price segment is relatively low [2][4][5][6] 3. **Overall Sales Growth**: With the introduction of I8 and I6, Li Auto's overall monthly sales could increase from 40,000-50,000 units to 55,000-60,000 units, significantly enhancing profitability. If the company achieves a quarterly sales target of 160,000 units, it could correspond to a non-GAAP profit of 4 billion, leading to a potential annual profit of 15 billion [2][7] 4. **Valuation Potential**: The company’s valuation could reach at least 20 times PE if self-driving advancements progress well. If the new models succeed, a valuation of 30 times PE is possible. The first quarter report may present a buying opportunity due to previous pessimistic sales expectations [2][7] 5. **Investment in AI Technology**: Li Auto is heavily investing in AI technology to enhance autonomous driving capabilities and is implementing an end-to-end large model strategy aimed at delivering a transformative driving experience. This focus on AI is a critical strategic direction for the company's future [2][3][8] 6. **Strategic Changes Post-Megachem**: After reflecting on the challenges faced with Megachem, Li Auto has undergone strategic changes, including a strong commitment to AI and improvements in its high-voltage pure electric product lineup and charging infrastructure, which are expected to bolster market competitiveness and create valuation opportunities [3][8] Additional Important Content - **Market Recognition**: The market has a favorable view of Li Auto's fundamentals, which is crucial for the success of the new electric product cycle in 2025. Despite setbacks from the previous year, the management's strategic adjustments are expected to drive long-term growth and profitability [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price yet to be specified [5]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a gradual ramp-up in its pure electric product cycle, with accelerated iterations in intelligent driving technology enhancing product competitiveness [1][3]. - For Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 44.27 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.6% for the full year, but a decline in net profit by 31.9% [1]. - The company anticipates Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries between 88,000 and 93,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.5% to 15.7% [1]. - The overall gross margin for Q4 2024 was 20.3%, with vehicle gross margin at 19.7%, impacted by changes in product mix and pricing strategies [1]. Sales and Store Situation - Total sales for Q4 2024 reached 158,696 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, with annual sales of 500,508 units, up 33.1% [2]. - The company holds a 15.3% market share in the RMB 200,000 and above new energy vehicle segment, leading among domestic brands [2]. - By the end of 2024, the company plans to increase its retail presence to 3,700 locations, with significant expansions in service and charging infrastructure [2]. Intelligent Driving - The focus for 2025 will be on further upgrades to intelligent driving software and hardware, aiming to enhance product strength and competitiveness [3]. - The introduction of the MindVLA architecture aims to create a more integrated driving experience, potentially expanding the company's market reach [3]. Product Cycle and Technological Innovation - The company is set to launch new models in the L series and MEGA intelligent driving in the first half of 2025, with additional electric SUV models expected in the second half [4]. - Upgrades to the AD Max system will transition from dual Orin-X chips to a single Thor-U chip, enhancing driving assistance capabilities [4]. - The report suggests that the combination of product cycles and technological innovations may lead to exceeding sales expectations [4].