Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports (02020) maintains a high level of prosperity in outdoor apparel, professional sports, and women's apparel sectors, with unique brand operation and growth planning, suggesting continued attention to the company. The buy rating is maintained with a target price of HKD 98.0 [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Anta's sales revenue achieved single-digit positive growth year-on-year, with a stable performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival [2] - The company revised its full-year revenue expectation for the Anta brand from +MSD to +LSD, while maintaining FILA's target at +MSD and other brands at +40% [2] - Other brands experienced significant growth, with a combined year-on-year increase of approximately 55%, including Descente at 30%, Kolon at 70%, and MAIA at 45% [2] Group 2: Profitability and Brand Matrix - The profitability contribution from professional and outdoor brands is increasing, with operating profit margins continuing to rise [3] - Operating profit for other brands turned positive in 2020 and is expected to reach 28.6% in 2024, increasing to 33.2% in H1 2025 (up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year) [3] - The operating profit share rose from 2.1% in 2020 to 18.4% in 2024, with further growth to 24.3% in H1 2025 [3] - The acquisition of the Wolf Paw brand in April and the establishment of a joint venture with Musinsa in September are expected to enrich the brand matrix and expand opportunities in the fashion sector [3] Group 3: Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 783.1 billion, 867.2 billion, and 942.3 billion for FY25E to FY27E, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.6%, 10.7%, and 8.7% respectively [4] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 132.5 billion, 152.3 billion, and 168.9 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 11.2%, 14.9%, and 10.9% (excluding equity investment income) [4] - The target price of HKD 98.0 corresponds to a PE ratio of approximately 18.8 times for FY25E and a static PE of about 16 times, indicating an expected price increase of 21.8% from the current price [4]

Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports (02020) maintains a high level of prosperity in outdoor apparel, professional sports, and women's apparel sectors, with unique brand operation and growth strategies, suggesting continued attention to the company [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Anta's sales achieved single-digit positive growth year-on-year, with a stable performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival [2] - The company revised its full-year revenue forecast for the Anta brand from +MSD to +LSD, while maintaining FILA's growth target at +MSD and other brands at +40% [2] - Other brands experienced significant growth, with a combined year-on-year increase of approximately 55%, including Descente at 30%, Kolon at 70%, and MAIA at 45% [2] Group 2: Profitability and Brand Matrix - The profitability contribution from professional and outdoor brands is increasing, with operating profit margins expected to rise from 2.1% in 2020 to 18.4% in 2024, and further to 24.3% by H1 2025 [3] - The company acquired the Jack Wolfskin brand to expand its outdoor brand matrix and plans to revitalize it over the next 3-5 years [3] - A joint venture with the Korean fashion platform Musinsa was established to explore opportunities in the fashion sector, enhancing the overall brand matrix [3] Group 3: Revenue Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 783.1 billion, 867.2 billion, and 942.3 billion yuan for FY25E to FY27E, with year-on-year growth rates of +10.6%, +10.7%, and +8.7% respectively [4] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 132.5 billion, 152.3 billion, and 168.9 billion yuan, with growth rates of +11.2%, +14.9%, and +10.9% (excluding equity investment income) [4] - The target price is set at 98.0 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of approximately 18.8 times for FY25E and a static PE of about 16 times, indicating a projected price increase of 21.8% from the current price [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Outperform the Market" [2][5][10] Core Views - In Q3 2025, Anta's main brand and FILA achieved low single-digit growth, while other brands experienced a significant growth of 45-50%. The overall growth of the Anta Group remains stable, but the growth rate has slowed compared to Q2 [3][4][6] - The management has lowered the annual revenue guidance for the Anta brand but maintained the operating profit margin guidance and revenue growth guidance for FILA and other brands [4][5][10] - The consumer market continues to face pressure, and the management has adjusted the annual guidance to low single-digit growth due to uncertainties in the fourth quarter [5][10] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Anta's main brand recorded low single-digit revenue growth, while FILA also achieved low single-digit growth. Other brands continued their high growth trajectory [3][4] - The inventory turnover ratio is healthy, influenced by promotional stock preparations, with the end-of-quarter inventory turnover ratio approaching six months [4][6] Brand Performance - Anta brand's Q3 revenue growth was low single-digit, with online discounts slightly increasing and stable offline discounts. The performance of running shoes and technological new products was notable [6][7] - FILA's Q3 revenue growth was also low single-digit, with a healthy inventory turnover ratio and stable discount rates [8] - Other brands, including Descente and KOLON, saw revenue growth of 45-50%, with Descente growing approximately 30% and KOLON growing 70% [9][10] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit for Anta from 2025 to 2027 is adjusted to 13.24 billion, 15.22 billion, and 17.16 billion yuan respectively, with comparable profit growth rates of 11.0%, 15.0%, and 12.7% [5][12] - The reasonable valuation range is adjusted to 116-121 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 23-24X for 2025 [5][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (02020.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Anta Sports is advancing channel upgrades for its brand, with outdoor brands leading growth [1] - The company aims for high single-digit growth in overall retail sales for the year, despite short-term impacts from store renovations and online competition [8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections (in million RMB) are as follows: - 2023A: 62,356 - 2024A: 70,826 (up 16.23% YoY) - 2025E: 78,173 (up 10.37% YoY) - 2026E: 86,079 (up 10.11% YoY) - 2027E: 94,239 (up 9.48% YoY) [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million RMB) is projected as: - 2023A: 10,236 - 2024A: 15,596 (up 52.36% YoY) - 2025E: 13,232 (down 15.16% YoY) - 2026E: 14,763 (up 11.57% YoY) - 2027E: 16,431 (up 11.30% YoY) [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecast (in RMB) is: - 2023A: 3.65 - 2024A: 5.56 - 2025E: 4.71 - 2026E: 5.26 - 2027E: 5.85 [1] - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected as: - 2024A: 14.71 - 2025E: 17.34 - 2026E: 15.54 - 2027E: 13.96 [1] Retail Performance - In Q2 2025, retail sales for Anta brand grew low single digits, while FILA and other brands saw mid single-digit and 50-55% growth respectively [8] - The company is implementing a "lighthouse store plan" to enhance store image in lower-tier cities, which may temporarily affect sales [8] - FILA's performance met expectations with mid single-digit growth in Q2 2025, and other brands maintained rapid growth, particularly benefiting from seasonal trends [8]