证券研究报告 纺织服饰 | 服装家纺 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 22 日 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 周宸宇 zhouchenyu@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 07 月 | 21 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | 92.80 | | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | 107.50/65.55 | | | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | 260,509.38 | | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | 260,509.38 | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | 40.74 | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | 安踏体育(02020.HK) 证券分析师 投资评级： 买入（维持） ——户外热潮助公司其他品牌高增，关注主品牌提效进展 投资要点： | 盈利预测与估值（人民币） | | | | ...

机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：盛开/钟启辉 本报告导读： 25Q2 安踏集团流水增长双位数，其中主品牌/FILA/其他品牌分别增长低单/中单/50-55%。主品牌线上线 下运营同步优化，新业态进展顺利。FILA 表现符合公司预期，新品深耕时尚运动。我们预计其他户外 品牌H2延续良好势头。 投资要点： 投资建议：我 们认为面对当下极具挑战的零售环境，安踏集团在各业务线持续寻找运营突破点，多品 牌矩阵优势持续体现，展望2025年下半年和2026 全年仍有望打通多个盈利能力提升路径。我们维持盈 利预测，预计公司2025-2027 净利润为134.2/151.0/168.8 亿元，给予2025 年PE 估值区间20X，按照1 港 元=0.91 人民币元汇率换算，对应目标价105.1 港元/股，维持"增持"评级。 公司公布25Q2 流水表现，集团整体流水增长双位数。其中安踏主品牌增长低单，FILA 增长中单（接近 高单），其他品牌增长50-55%（迪桑特增长40%+，可隆增长70%+，其他品牌增长30%+）。 主品牌线上线下同步优化，新业态进展顺利。25Q2 安踏主品牌流水增长低单，环比Q1（增长高单）放 缓，主因①低线 ...

Core Viewpoint - Anta's main brand revenue growth in Q2 2025 is low single digits, with a slowdown in growth rate compared to previous quarters, primarily due to optimization of franchise stores in lower-tier cities and online discount control [1][2] Group 1: Anta Brand Performance - In Q2 2025, Anta's main brand revenue growth is low single digits, while H1 shows mid single-digit growth, a decrease from high single digits in Q1 [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing franchise channels in lower-tier cities and has appointed a new e-commerce head to enhance online sales management [2][3] - The inventory-to-sales ratio remains around 5 months, with offline discounts stable year-on-year and online discounts slightly deepening [2][3] Group 2: FILA Brand Performance - FILA's revenue in Q2 2025 shows mid single-digit growth year-on-year, with H1 growth at high single digits [3] - FILA's large goods are expected to grow at high single digits, while Fusion and children's wear are projected to grow at mid single digits [3] - Online sales for FILA are performing better than offline, with an overall inventory-to-sales ratio of about 5 months [3] Group 3: Other Brands Performance - Other brands collectively achieved revenue growth of 50%-55% in Q2 2025, with Kolon exceeding 70% and Descente projected to grow over 40% [3] - Maia Active shows over 30% revenue growth, with double-digit growth in store efficiency and rapid membership growth driven by endorsements [3] Group 4: Outlook for H2 2025 - The company maintains expectations for high single-digit growth for Anta, mid single-digit growth for FILA, and over 30% growth for other brands in 2025 [4] - Continuous optimization of offline franchise stores and expansion of new retail formats for Anta are planned [4] - Anticipated decline in interest income and increased market investment for Anta and FILA may lead to a slight decrease in operating profit margins [4] Group 5: Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 784.4 billion, 848.8 billion, and 911.0 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of +10.7%, +8.2%, and +7.3% respectively [5] - Expected net profit for the parent company is 134.1 billion, 149.7 billion, and 165.4 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of -14.0% (excluding one-time losses from Amer) [5] - Corresponding P/E ratios are 17.7x, 15.9x, and 14.3x, with a maintained "buy" rating [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [2][5][24] Core Views - Anta Sports has shown strong group revenue growth driven by multiple brands, with significant results from new retail formats [5][7] - The company is expected to stabilize its performance in the second half of 2025 after a temporary slowdown in the main brand's growth [7] - The multi-brand strategy continues to demonstrate strong potential for future growth, particularly with the acquisition of the Wolf Claw brand [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are as follows: - FY2023: 623.6 billion RMB - FY2024: 708.3 billion RMB - FY2025E: 779.5 billion RMB - FY2026E: 839.2 billion RMB - FY2027E: 900.7 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 16% for FY2023, 14% for FY2024, and gradually decreasing to 7% by FY2027 [6][15] - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - FY2023: 102.4 billion RMB - FY2024: 156.0 billion RMB - FY2025E: 134.1 billion RMB - FY2026E: 147.0 billion RMB - FY2027E: 160.1 billion RMB - The projected PE ratios are 23 for FY2023, 15 for FY2024, and 18 for FY2025E [6][15] Brand Performance - Anta's main brand experienced low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, while FILA showed mid-single-digit growth [7] - Other brands such as Descente and KOLON saw revenue growth between 50-55% in Q2 2025, continuing strong performance in niche segments [7] - The new retail formats, including Champion stores and SV collection stores, have shown significantly higher sales efficiency compared to traditional stores [7] Market Position and Strategy - Anta Sports is focusing on enhancing its brand health and optimizing its online product distribution system [7] - The company has successfully maintained healthy inventory levels, with inventory turnover ratios around five months [7] - The report highlights the scarcity and quality of Anta's multi-brand matrix as a key competitive advantage [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Anta (2020 HK), with a target price of HKD 110.20, indicating a potential upside of 22.7% from the current price of HKD 89.80 [1][2][15]. Core Insights - The company's second-quarter revenue met expectations, with management reaffirming the annual guidance for growth across its brands, despite a competitive industry landscape. The expected revenue growth for Anta, FILA, and other brands is high single digits, mid single digits, and over 30% respectively [6][7]. - The report maintains revenue forecasts for the next three years but slightly lowers profit margin expectations due to industry discount pressures. Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated to be between RMB 134.1 billion and RMB 165.4 billion [6][7]. - Anta's brand sales momentum has slightly slowed, but improvements in online channels are anticipated in the second half of the year. The company is optimizing its offline store strategy and expects to maintain high single-digit growth for the Anta brand [6][7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 62,356 million in 2023, RMB 70,826 million in 2024, RMB 77,140 million in 2025, RMB 83,936 million in 2026, and RMB 90,550 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.2%, 13.6%, 8.9%, 8.8%, and 7.9% respectively [5][8][16]. - The net profit forecast for the same years is RMB 10,236 million in 2023, RMB 15,596 million in 2024, RMB 13,410 million in 2025, RMB 15,021 million in 2026, and RMB 16,543 million in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 30.8%, 50.3%, -14.0%, 12.4%, and 10.1% [5][8][16]. - The report highlights a projected decline in profit margins, with gross profit margins expected to be 62.0% in 2025, 62.1% in 2026, and 62.2% in 2027 [7][17]. Brand Performance - Anta's brand recorded low single-digit revenue growth in the second quarter, while FILA achieved mid single-digit growth. Other brands like Descente and KOLON saw high growth rates of over 40% and 70% respectively [6][7]. - The inventory turnover ratio for FILA improved to five months, and the company strategically increased discounts in the e-commerce channel to optimize inventory [6][7].