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工业硅&多晶硅日评:上方承压-20251205
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 02:05
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The current silicon market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and there is still pressure on the upside of silicon prices. Attention should be paid to the subsequent registration of new warehouse receipts and the actual start - up of silicon enterprises [1]. - For polysilicon, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is limited, and there is significant pressure on the spot price to continue rising, which suppresses the upside space of the futures market. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the polysilicon platform and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygen - passing 553 (East China) remained at 9,350 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change; the futures main contract closed at 8,910 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. The average prices of different grades and regions of industrial silicon showed various trends, with some remaining unchanged and some having slight declines [1]. - Polysilicon: N - type dense material remained at 51 yuan/kg; N - type re - feeding material dropped 0.10% to 52.30 yuan/kg; N - type mixed material remained at 50.50 yuan/kg; N - type granular silicon dropped 0.99% to 50 yuan/kg. The futures main contract closed at 56,915 yuan/ton, down 0.90% [1]. - Other products: Silicon wafer, battery cell, and component prices mostly remained unchanged, while some organic silicon product prices, such as DMC, increased by 2.25% to 13,650 yuan/ton [1]. Information - On December 4, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.8 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from last week [1]. - The U.S. Department of Energy renamed the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to the Rocky Mountain National Laboratory, which reflects a policy shift and raises concerns about the weakening of renewable energy research [1]. Investment Strategy - Industrial Silicon - Fundamentals: Southwest silicon enterprises' production stoppages have basically been implemented, with low - level production. Northern production is relatively stable. December's industrial silicon output is expected to fluctuate slightly around 400,000 tons. Demand from polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises may weaken, and downstream low - level inventory - building willingness is limited [1]. - Strategy: The silicon market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with pressure on silicon prices. Adopt an interval - trading strategy and pay attention to new warehouse - receipt registration and actual enterprise start - up [1]. Investment Strategy - Polysilicon - Supply and demand: Silicon material enterprises maintain production cut - backs, with some new capacity additions. October's output is expected to increase slightly, and November's output is expected to drop to around 120,000 tons. Market transactions are light, and downstream resistance to high - price resources is strong [1]. - Strategy: The downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is limited, suppressing the upside of the futures market. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to platform implementation and macro - sentiment [1].
上方承压:工业硅&多晶硅日评20251126-20251126
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 01:25
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current silicon market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and there is still pressure on the upside of silicon prices. The downstream replenishment willingness for polysilicon is limited, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which restricts the upside space of the futures market [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) decreased by 0.51% to 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose by 0.22% to 8,960 yuan/ton, and the basis (East China 553 - futures main) was 390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [1]. Supply and Demand - In terms of supply, the southwest production area has gradually returned to the high-cost period of the dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped furnaces and production at the end of October, and the silicon enterprise start-up rate significantly declined. In Yunnan, only integrated enterprises or those with long-term order demand are in production, while the furnace start-up in the north is relatively stable. After offsetting increases and decreases, it is expected that the industrial silicon output in November will drop below 400,000 tons. In terms of demand, polysilicon enterprises continue to reduce production, silicone enterprises have reached a joint production reduction mechanism, which may weaken the demand for industrial silicon, and silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed. The overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low levels is limited [1]. Investment Strategy - The trading strategy is range operation, and attention should be paid to the subsequent new warehouse receipt registration and the actual start-up of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - The price of N-type polysilicon material remained unchanged at 51 yuan/kg, the price of N-type re-feeding material decreased by 0.10% to 52.25 yuan/kg, the price of N-type mixed material and N-type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose by 2.65% to 54,730 yuan/ton, and the basis was -3,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,415 yuan [1]. Supply and Demand - In terms of supply, polysilicon enterprises continue to reduce production, and some polysilicon factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting increases and decreases, it is expected that the output in October will still increase slightly, and the output in November is expected to decrease to about 120,000 tons month-on-month. In terms of demand, the polysilicon market trading is relatively light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises have strong resistance to high-priced resources, and the market is waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. Investment Strategy - The trading strategy is to wait and see for the time being. Attention should be paid to the subsequent implementation of the polysilicon platform and the evolution of macro sentiment, and those with previous long positions should pay attention to profit protection [1]. Other Information - On November 21, the Beijing Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the electricity price bidding for new energy incremental projects in the city in 2026. The electricity volume scale newly included in the mechanism in 2026 is 1.2 billion kWh, and the upper limit of the bidding price for wind power and photovoltaic power is 0.3598 yuan/kWh [1]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released an Australian photovoltaic application report, showing that the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in Australia in 2024 was 5.2GW, and the total national installed capacity reached 40GW, including 26.1GW in distributed systems and 13.4GW in centralized systems. The newly installed capacity in 2024 has exceeded the historical cumulative installed capacity of 5.1GW in Australia as of the end of 2015 [1].
工业硅&多晶硅日评20251117:上方承压-20251117
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 05:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may put pressure on the upper limit of the market. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the downstream replenishment willingness is limited, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to rise further, which restricts the upward space of the market [1]. - For industrial silicon, the trading strategy is to conduct range - bound operations. For polysilicon, before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, investors can try to go long on dips with a light position [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract was 9,020 yuan/ton, down 1.37% from the previous day. The basis (East China 553 - futures main contract) was 330 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton. The average prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply**: Southwest production areas are entering the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped furnaces and production at the end of October, resulting in a significant decline in the operating rate. In November, the industrial silicon output is expected to drop below 400,000 tons. Although the number of open furnaces in the north increased steadily, the overall supply decreased [1]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained production cuts, organic silicon enterprises were mostly in a state of reduced load or maintenance, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased on demand. The overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low prices was limited [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Conduct range - bound operations. Pay attention to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton and continuously monitor industrial policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51 yuan/kg; N - type re -投料 price rose 0.29% to 52.30 yuan/kg; N - type mixed material and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract was 54,045 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous day [1]. - **Supply**: Silicon material enterprises maintained a production - cut state, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output in October still increased slightly, and the output in November is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The polysilicon market transactions were light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises were highly resistant to high - priced resources, and the market was waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, try to go long on dips with a light position. Pay attention to the implementation of the polysilicon platform and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1]. Other Information - On November 12, the ceremony for the full grid - connection of the 35 - megawatt solar photovoltaic power station equipment project aided by China to Cuba was held. The project includes 7 photovoltaic power stations, which will increase Cuba's clean power supply capacity and save about 18,000 tons of imported fuel annually [1]. - On November 6, the first - phase 102.56 - megawatt power generation unit of the Puxi Photovoltaic Project of the Dadu River Ashui (New Energy) Company under the National Energy Group was successfully connected to the grid, marking the commissioning of the first - phase components of the group's highest - altitude centralized photovoltaic power station [1].
工业硅&多晶硅日评20251113:上方承压-20251113
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 02:19
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon market has weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. For industrial silicon, pay attention to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton [1]. - For polysilicon, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is limited, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to rise further, which restricts the upward space of the market. Holders of previous long - positions should protect their profits [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.16% to 9,195 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: In October, the southwest产区 entered the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped production by the end of October, and the silicon enterprise operating rate decreased significantly. In Yunnan, only integrated enterprises or those with long - term orders were in production, while in the north, the number of operating furnaces increased steadily. After offsetting, the industrial silicon output in November is expected to fall below 400,000 tons [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises continued to cut production, organic silicon enterprises were mostly in a state of reduced load or maintenance, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed. The downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels was limited [1]. Investment Strategy - The silicon market has weak supply and demand, and the excess situation may suppress the market. Pay attention to the 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton pressure level. Adopt an interval operation strategy and continuously monitor industry policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 51 yuan/kg; the price of N - type re - feeding material fell 0.10% to 52.15 yuan/kg; the prices of N - type mixed material and N - type granular silicon remained flat at 50.50 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.95% to 53,460 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Silicon material enterprises continued to cut production, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output in October is expected to increase slightly, and the output in November may decline [1]. - Demand: The polysilicon market transactions were light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises were resistant to high - priced resources, and the market was waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. Investment Strategy - The downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is limited, and there is pressure for the spot price to rise. Holders of previous long - positions should protect their profits. Before the supply - side reform policy is implemented, try to go long on dips [1]. Automotive Industry Information - In October 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.995 million and 2.961 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and 3.6%, and a year - on - year increase of 10.7% and 7.5%. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars were 24.237 million and 24.209 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 13.5% and 12.9% [1]. - In October 2025, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 364,000 and 361,000 respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% and 1.9%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% and 21%. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 3.456 million and 3.479 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 10.9% and 9% [1]. - In October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20%. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% [1]. - In October 2025, automobile exports were 666,000, with a month - on - month increase of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 22.9%. From January to October 2025, automobile exports were 5.616 million, with a year - on - year increase of 15.7% [1].
工业硅、多晶硅日评:上方承压-20251107
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 01:04
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The silicon market has weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. [1] - Due to supply - side disturbances, the polysilicon market has seen an upward oscillation. However, considering the limited willingness of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory, there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which may lead to a market decline. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main futures contract rose 0.50% to 9,065 yuan/ton; the basis was 235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In October, the southwest production area entered the high - cost dry season, with some silicon enterprises shutting down furnaces. The overall industrial silicon production in November is expected to drop below 400,000 tons. The downstream demand is weak, with low inventory - building willingness. [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt interval trading [1] Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51 yuan/kg; the price of N - type re - feed material remained unchanged at 52.2 yuan/kg. The closing price of the main futures contract rose 0.07% to 53,395 yuan/ton; the basis was - 2,395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side may see a slight increase in production in October and a decline in November. The market trading is light, and downstream enterprises resist high - priced resources. [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, consider lightly testing long positions on dips [1] Other Information - On October 28, the step - up substation project of the 2GW photovoltaic power station in Saudi Arabia, jointly constructed by China Energy Engineering Corporation's international engineering company, Guangdong Power Engineering Corporation, and Northwest Engineering Corporation, officially started. [1] - As of November 6, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last week. [1]
多晶硅数据日报-20250814
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 06:41
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Fundamentally, increased production in Inner Mongolia has led to a rise in output, and downstream silicon wafer production schedules continue to increase. In the short term, the lower limit is supported by cost and major manufacturers' price - holding, while the upper pressure mainly comes from downstream weakness and hedging. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price - PS2511 closed at 51,290 with a decline of 0.98% [1] - PS2508 closed at 51,500 with an increase of 1.97% [1] - PS2509 closed at 51,265 with a decline of 1.03% [1] - PS2510 closed at 51,375 with a decline of 0.94% [1] Spread - The spread between PS2508 and PS2509 is 235, with an increase of 1,530 [1] - The spread between PS2509 and PS2510 is - 110, with a decrease of 50 [1] - The spread between PS2510 and PS2511 is 85, with an increase of 25 [1] Spot Price - The average price of N - type dense material is 46, with a change of 0% [1] - The average price of N - type mixed material is 45, with a change of 0% [2] Inventory and Other Data - The weekly inventory of polysilicon is 23.30 million tons, an increase of 0.40 million tons [2] - The weekly inventory of silicon wafers is 0.96 GW, an increase of 19.11 GW [2] - The daily registered warehouse receipts are 210 tons, an increase of 5,150 tons [2]