| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251126：上方承压 | | | --- | --- | | 2025/11/26 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 9,350.00 0.00% | | | 工业硅期现价格 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 8,960.00 0.22% 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） 390.00 -20.00 | | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 51.00 0.00% | | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 54,730.00 2.65% | | | 元/吨 -3,730.00 -1,415.00 基差 | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 9,350.00 0.00% | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 9,350.00 0.00% | | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 9,300.00 0.00% | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 9,350.00 0.00% | | | 不通氧553#（四川）平均价格 元/吨 9,050.00 0.00% | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may put pressure on the upper limit of the market. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the downstream replenishment willingness is limited, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to rise further, which restricts the upward space of the market [1]. - For industrial silicon, the trading strategy is to conduct range - bound operations. For polysilicon, before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, investors can try to go long on dips with a light position [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract was 9,020 yuan/ton, down 1.37% from the previous day. The basis (East China 553 - futures main contract) was 330 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton. The average prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply**: Southwest production areas are entering the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped furnaces and production at the end of October, resulting in a significant decline in the operating rate. In November, the industrial silicon output is expected to drop below 400,000 tons. Although the number of open furnaces in the north increased steadily, the overall supply decreased [1]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained production cuts, organic silicon enterprises were mostly in a state of reduced load or maintenance, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased on demand. The overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low prices was limited [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Conduct range - bound operations. Pay attention to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton and continuously monitor industrial policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51 yuan/kg; N - type re -投料 price rose 0.29% to 52.30 yuan/kg; N - type mixed material and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract was 54,045 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous day [1]. - **Supply**: Silicon material enterprises maintained a production - cut state, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output in October still increased slightly, and the output in November is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The polysilicon market transactions were light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises were highly resistant to high - priced resources, and the market was waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, try to go long on dips with a light position. Pay attention to the implementation of the polysilicon platform and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1]. Other Information - On November 12, the ceremony for the full grid - connection of the 35 - megawatt solar photovoltaic power station equipment project aided by China to Cuba was held. The project includes 7 photovoltaic power stations, which will increase Cuba's clean power supply capacity and save about 18,000 tons of imported fuel annually [1]. - On November 6, the first - phase 102.56 - megawatt power generation unit of the Puxi Photovoltaic Project of the Dadu River Ashui (New Energy) Company under the National Energy Group was successfully connected to the grid, marking the commissioning of the first - phase components of the group's highest - altitude centralized photovoltaic power station [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon market has weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. For industrial silicon, pay attention to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton [1]. - For polysilicon, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is limited, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to rise further, which restricts the upward space of the market. Holders of previous long - positions should protect their profits [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.16% to 9,195 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: In October, the southwest产区 entered the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped production by the end of October, and the silicon enterprise operating rate decreased significantly. In Yunnan, only integrated enterprises or those with long - term orders were in production, while in the north, the number of operating furnaces increased steadily. After offsetting, the industrial silicon output in November is expected to fall below 400,000 tons [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises continued to cut production, organic silicon enterprises were mostly in a state of reduced load or maintenance, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed. The downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels was limited [1]. Investment Strategy - The silicon market has weak supply and demand, and the excess situation may suppress the market. Pay attention to the 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton pressure level. Adopt an interval operation strategy and continuously monitor industry policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 51 yuan/kg; the price of N - type re - feeding material fell 0.10% to 52.15 yuan/kg; the prices of N - type mixed material and N - type granular silicon remained flat at 50.50 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.95% to 53,460 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Silicon material enterprises continued to cut production, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output in October is expected to increase slightly, and the output in November may decline [1]. - Demand: The polysilicon market transactions were light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises were resistant to high - priced resources, and the market was waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. Investment Strategy - The downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is limited, and there is pressure for the spot price to rise. Holders of previous long - positions should protect their profits. Before the supply - side reform policy is implemented, try to go long on dips [1]. Automotive Industry Information - In October 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.995 million and 2.961 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and 3.6%, and a year - on - year increase of 10.7% and 7.5%. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars were 24.237 million and 24.209 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 13.5% and 12.9% [1]. - In October 2025, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 364,000 and 361,000 respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% and 1.9%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% and 21%. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 3.456 million and 3.479 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 10.9% and 9% [1]. - In October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20%. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% [1]. - In October 2025, automobile exports were 666,000, with a month - on - month increase of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 22.9%. From January to October 2025, automobile exports were 5.616 million, with a year - on - year increase of 15.7% [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The silicon market has weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. [1] - Due to supply - side disturbances, the polysilicon market has seen an upward oscillation. However, considering the limited willingness of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory, there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which may lead to a market decline. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main futures contract rose 0.50% to 9,065 yuan/ton; the basis was 235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In October, the southwest production area entered the high - cost dry season, with some silicon enterprises shutting down furnaces. The overall industrial silicon production in November is expected to drop below 400,000 tons. The downstream demand is weak, with low inventory - building willingness. [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt interval trading [1] Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51 yuan/kg; the price of N - type re - feed material remained unchanged at 52.2 yuan/kg. The closing price of the main futures contract rose 0.07% to 53,395 yuan/ton; the basis was - 2,395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side may see a slight increase in production in October and a decline in November. The market trading is light, and downstream enterprises resist high - priced resources. [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, consider lightly testing long positions on dips [1] Other Information - On October 28, the step - up substation project of the 2GW photovoltaic power station in Saudi Arabia, jointly constructed by China Energy Engineering Corporation's international engineering company, Guangdong Power Engineering Corporation, and Northwest Engineering Corporation, officially started. [1] - As of November 6, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last week. [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Fundamentally, increased production in Inner Mongolia has led to a rise in output, and downstream silicon wafer production schedules continue to increase. In the short term, the lower limit is supported by cost and major manufacturers' price - holding, while the upper pressure mainly comes from downstream weakness and hedging. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price - PS2511 closed at 51,290 with a decline of 0.98% [1] - PS2508 closed at 51,500 with an increase of 1.97% [1] - PS2509 closed at 51,265 with a decline of 1.03% [1] - PS2510 closed at 51,375 with a decline of 0.94% [1] Spread - The spread between PS2508 and PS2509 is 235, with an increase of 1,530 [1] - The spread between PS2509 and PS2510 is - 110, with a decrease of 50 [1] - The spread between PS2510 and PS2511 is 85, with an increase of 25 [1] Spot Price - The average price of N - type dense material is 46, with a change of 0% [1] - The average price of N - type mixed material is 45, with a change of 0% [2] Inventory and Other Data - The weekly inventory of polysilicon is 23.30 million tons, an increase of 0.40 million tons [2] - The weekly inventory of silicon wafers is 0.96 GW, an increase of 19.11 GW [2] - The daily registered warehouse receipts are 210 tons, an increase of 5,150 tons [2]