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工业硅、多晶硅日评:供给端扰动,价格低位反弹-20250627
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 01:41
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, and the industry still faces high inventory pressure. Although the silicon price rebounded from a low level due to supply - side disturbances, the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. For industrial silicon, if the production cut is less than expected, short positions can be considered. For polysilicon, due to strong uncertainty in terminal installation and over - capacity issues that are difficult to resolve in the short term, the price is unlikely to have an upward trend in the short term, and shorting on rebounds is recommended for the medium - and long - term [1]. Summaries by Related Content Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.18% to 7,720 yuan/ton. Among different regions, most prices remained stable, while the average price of oxygenated 553 in some regions had small increases. For polysilicon, the prices of N - type dense material, polycrystalline secondary material, dense material, and cauliflower material remained unchanged, and the closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.56% to 31,715 yuan/ton [1]. Inventory Information - On June 26, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 542,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared with last week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 128,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared with last week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses (including non - registered warehouse receipts and spot parts) was 414,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared with last week [1]. Industry News - SK plans to sell its silicon - based anode factory to its US partner Group 14, selling its 75% stake in the joint - venture SK Materials Group 14 to Group 14 Technologies through in - kind payment. The joint - venture factory in South Korea is in the trial - production stage [1]. - On the evening of June 24, 2025, Jingshan Light Machinery announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary Suzhou Shengcheng Photovoltaic Equipment Co., Ltd. would invest 150 million yuan in cash in Jiangsu Runyang New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Industrial Silicon**: On the supply side, the operation of silicon enterprises in the north has changed little, and the south - west production area is about to enter the wet season with lower power costs, so the enterprise operation is steadily increasing. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are continuing to cut production, and the resumption of production may be postponed; the organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. Domestic monomer enterprises' operation shows mixed changes, with the overall operation decreasing, and the demand for industrial silicon is further weakened. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has insufficient willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. - **Polysilicon**: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises are maintaining production cuts, and some silicon material factories may have new capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output is expected to increase slightly, with the overall output remaining within 100,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is generally weak, the inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials are rising, the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are continuously falling, the market demand is slowing down, and the transactions are weak [1].
工业硅、多晶硅日评:低位整理-20250624
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 03:21
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is facing a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. Silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure at low levels in the short term, and the downward space may be relatively limited. For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and prices are expected to have no upward trend in the short term, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.41% to 7,420 yuan/ton. The prices of different grades and regions of industrial silicon showed little change, except for a 1.20% drop in the average price of non - oxygenated 553 in Kunming and a 1.02% drop in the average price of 421 in Sichuan [1] - Polysilicon: The prices of N - type dense material, polysilicon re - feedstock, polysilicon dense material, and polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 3.42% to 30,615 yuan/ton [1] - Other products: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and organic silicon products remained unchanged [1] Export and Import Information - Organic silicon: In May 2025, the export volume of primary - form polysiloxane was 4.66 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.51%. From January to May 2025, the total export volume was 22.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.73% [1] - Industrial silicon: In May 2025, the export volume was 5.57 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year decrease of 22%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume was 27.24 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The import volume in May 2025 was very small, and the cumulative import volume from January to May was 0.52 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55% [1] Inventory Information - As of June 19, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3 million tons. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 13.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 million tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 42.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 million tons [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: For industrial silicon, the start - up of silicon enterprises in the north has changed little, and the southwest production area is about to enter the wet season with lower power costs, so the enterprise start - up is steadily increasing. For polysilicon, silicon material enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and although there may be new capacity put into operation, the overall supply is expected to increase slightly [1] - Demand side: For industrial silicon, polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts and the resumption of production may be postponed; organic silicon enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the overall downstream willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient. For polysilicon, the photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, falling prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, and weak market transactions [1]
工业硅、多晶硅日评:低位整理-20250612
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 03:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. Silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure at low levels in the short term, but the downward space may be limited due to the current low prices. [1] - For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and the transaction price is moving downward. Considering the high uncertainty of terminal installation and the difficulty in resolving over - capacity issues in the short term, polysilicon prices are unlikely to show an upward trend in the short term. The recommended strategy is to short on rebounds. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Industrial Silicon**: The average price of industrial silicon's non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.96% to 7,560 yuan/ton. [1] - **Polysilicon**: N - type dense material remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon re - feedstock remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material remained flat at 32 yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 30 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.88% to 34,255 yuan/ton. [1] - **Silicon Wafer**: Most photovoltaic companies' silicon wafer prices followed the market downward, with small and medium - sized enterprises having a larger decline of about 0.03 yuan/piece. In June, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises was generally lower than that in May, mostly between 40% - 60%, a month - on - month decrease of about 3% - 13%. [1] - **Others**: The prices of battery chips, components, and most organic silicon products remained stable, while the price of silicone oil decreased by 0.36% to 13,750 yuan/ton. [1] Industry News - In May, automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million units respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May, automobile production and sales reached 12.826 million and 12.748 million units respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9%. [1] - Cangzhou Huayu Special Gas Technology Co., Ltd.'s annual 5,000 - ton electronic special gas project was officially put into production, with a 95% domestic - made silane gas production device and the largest single - set production capacity in the country. [1] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost inversion. In the southwest production area, although the wet season was approaching, there was a lack of confidence in the future market, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and low willingness to resume production. For polysilicon, enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and some may have new capacity put into production, with an expected output of less than 100,000 tons. [1] - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained production reduction, and the resumption of production might be postponed. The organic silicon industry had a strong willingness to reduce production to support prices, but demand was weak, and the actual transaction price declined. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased on demand, and the downstream had low willingness to stock up at low prices. The photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, and falling prices of silicon wafers, battery chips, and components. [1]