祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250905：高位整理 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 2025/9/5 指标 | | | | | 元/吨 8,950.00 0.00% 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | | | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 8,515.00 0.29% | | | | | 元/吨 435.00 -25.00 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | | | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 50.00 0.00% | | | | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 52,195.00 0.07% | | | | | 基差 元/吨 -2,195.00 -35.00 元/吨 8,950.00 0.00% | | | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | | | | 元/吨 9,000.00 0.00% 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 8,850.0 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250825：高位整理 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/25 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | | | | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 9,050.00 0.00% | | | | | | | | | 工业硅期现价格 元/吨 8,745.00 1.27% | | | | | | | | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） 元/吨 305.00 -110.00 | | | | | | | | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 48.00 0.00% | | | | | | | | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 51,405.00 -0.24% | | | | | | | | | 元/吨 -3,405.00 125.00 基差 | | | | | | | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 9,050.00 0.00% | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant increase in nuclear power generation, with a year-on-year growth of 23.0% in March, while thermal power generation has decreased by 2.3% [11] - The overall electricity consumption in March reached 828.2 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, with the first and third industries maintaining high growth rates [20] - The report emphasizes the potential for further declines in coal prices due to increased supply and decreased demand as temperatures rise, which could enhance profitability in thermal power generation [6] Industry Scale - The industry comprises 241 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 370.24 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 344.90 billion [2] Industry Index Performance - The environmental and public utility sectors have shown positive performance, with the public utility index increasing by 1.77% and the environmental index by 0.04% [6][28] - Year-to-date, the environmental sector has a cumulative decline of 1.02%, while the electric power sector has declined by 2.46%, both outperforming the broader market indices [6] Key Data Tracking - As of April 18, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal is 680 yuan/ton, a significant drop of 57.5% from its peak of 1599 yuan/ton in October 2022 [40] - The average electricity price in Guangdong reached a peak of 327.31 yuan/MWh on April 18, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 7.0% [65] - The national carbon market saw a weekly trading volume of 149.89 million tons, a substantial increase of 319.5% [72] Key Events in the Industry - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "New Generation Coal Power Upgrade Special Action Implementation Plan (2025-2027)" [76]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices are expected to continue low-level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 9,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton, and follow-up attention should be paid to the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1] - The price of polysilicon may decline in the future, and the previous long positions can be gradually closed at high prices. The inter - delivery strategy can consider the 06 - 11 positive spread and 11 - 12 negative spread [1] Summary According to Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,950 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon also remained flat at 10,900 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.53% to 9,310 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, furnace starts in Xinjiang decreased, while there were new furnace starts in Sichuan. It is expected that some silicon enterprises in Yunnan will have new capacity put into operation in April, showing a pattern of increasing supply in the south and decreasing in the north. On the demand side, there is no obvious improvement, and the high inventory pressure in the silicon market remains [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Due to the reduction in supply after the production cut of some large northern factories, but the lack of improvement in demand, the short - term silicon price is expected to continue low - level consolidation, and the follow - up should focus on the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1] Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: N - type dense material remained flat at 40 yuan/kg compared to the previous day; polysilicon re - feeding material price remained flat at 36 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.68% to 41,550 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - cut situation, and it is expected that the output in April will still be within 100,000 tons. On the demand side, as the 430 rush - installation node approaches, the demand for distributed component orders has cooled down, but the demand for centralized orders has started to increase [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Considering that the self - disciplined production cut and the rush - installation tide still support the polysilicon price, but the follow - up demand may weaken, the price center may move down. Previous long positions can be gradually closed at high prices, and the inter - delivery strategy can consider the 06 - 11 positive spread and 11 - 12 negative spread [1] Other Products - **DMC**: The domestic DMC market has poor trading recently. Due to high inventory, the mainstream trading center of DMC has moved down to 13,500 yuan/ton, and the price is expected to decline slightly in the future [1] - **Photovoltaic Cells**: Photovoltaic cell prices have started to decline, with different sizes showing different market trends. The price of Topcon210RN batteries has dropped significantly, with a decline of over 12% [1]