| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251120：上方承压 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/20 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 9,350.00 0.00% | | | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 9,390.00 4.57% | | | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） -40.00 -410.00 | | | | 元/千克 51.00 0.00% N型多晶硅料 | | | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 54,625.00 4.63% | | | | -3,625.00 -2,415.00 基差 元/吨 | | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 9,350.00 0.00% | | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 9,350.00 0.00% | | | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 9,250.00 0.00% | | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 9,350.00 0.00% | | | | 元/吨 9 ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251119：上方承压 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/19 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 9,350.00 0.00% | | | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 8,980.00 -1.10% | | 工业硅期现价格 | | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） 370.00 100.00 | | | | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 51.00 0.00% | | | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 52,210.00 -0.85% 元/吨 -1,210.00 445.00 基差 | | 多晶硅期现价格 | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 9,350.00 0.00% | | | | | 元/吨 9,350.00 0.00% | | | | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | | | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 9,250.00 0.00% | | | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 9, ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251117：上方承压 | | | --- | --- | | 2025/11/17 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | 宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构， 已具备期货交易咨询业务资格。 | | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 9,020.00 -1.37% | | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） 330.00 125.00 | | | 元/千克 51.00 0.00% N型多晶硅料 | | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 54,045.00 -0.28% | | | -3,045.00 150.00 基差 元/吨 元/吨 | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 9,350.00 0.00% 元/吨 9,350.00 0.00% | | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 9,250.00 0.00% | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 9,350.00 0.00% | | | 本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The silicon market has weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. [1] - Due to supply - side disturbances, the polysilicon market has seen an upward oscillation. However, considering the limited willingness of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory, there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which may lead to a market decline. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main futures contract rose 0.50% to 9,065 yuan/ton; the basis was 235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In October, the southwest production area entered the high - cost dry season, with some silicon enterprises shutting down furnaces. The overall industrial silicon production in November is expected to drop below 400,000 tons. The downstream demand is weak, with low inventory - building willingness. [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt interval trading [1] Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51 yuan/kg; the price of N - type re - feed material remained unchanged at 52.2 yuan/kg. The closing price of the main futures contract rose 0.07% to 53,395 yuan/ton; the basis was - 2,395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side may see a slight increase in production in October and a decline in November. The market trading is light, and downstream enterprises resist high - priced resources. [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, consider lightly testing long positions on dips [1] Other Information - On October 28, the step - up substation project of the 2GW photovoltaic power station in Saudi Arabia, jointly constructed by China Energy Engineering Corporation's international engineering company, Guangdong Power Engineering Corporation, and Northwest Engineering Corporation, officially started. [1] - As of November 6, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last week. [1]

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251105：上方承压 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近期趋势 2025/11/5 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 8,885.00 | -2.79% | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 元/吨 | 415.00 | 255.00 | | N型多晶硅料 | 元/千克 | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 53,715.00 -2,715.00 | -4.19% 2,350.00 | | 基差 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,200.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,350.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is in high - level consolidation. The supply side has potential disturbances, and the short - term silicon price may maintain high - level consolidation, but there is a risk of a subsequent decline. For polysilicon, the price is also in high - level consolidation, and it is difficult for the spot price to rise further in the short term due to high downstream raw material inventories [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Data**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.06% to 9,020 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production, and the start - up rate in the southwest region has steadily increased. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, some silicon material plants have复产 plans, organic silicon supply has tightened and then recovered, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt interval operation and continue to hold out - of - the - money put options [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Data**: N - type dense material fell 0.29% to 51 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material fell 0.28% to 52.5 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material fell 0.30% to 50 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained flat at 49.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.23% to 51,380 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises are still reducing production, and some may have new capacity put into operation, with a slight increase in expected output. On the demand side, trading volume has increased significantly, inventory has decreased, but terminal demand pressure is large, and component price increases face resistance [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Before the supply - side reform policy is implemented, try to go long on dips with a light position [1]. Industry News - On the evening of September 24, Xinjiang Dongfang Hope New Energy Co., Ltd. started the annual routine maintenance of its first - phase polysilicon production line, and its third - phase project is ready for shutdown and maintenance. This is expected to have a positive impact on product quality and production stability, and will not have a major impact on overall supply [1]. - On September 23, the winning bid results of the first - batch photovoltaic module procurement framework (third tender) of a technology company from 2025 - 2026 were announced, with winning bid prices ranging from 0.71 - 0.76 yuan/W [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon price is expected to maintain high-level consolidation in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support level of RMB 8,300 per ton. Continued attention should be paid to the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. - The polysilicon price is expected to have amplified fluctuations and is prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of RMB 55,000 - 56,000 per ton. Continued attention should be paid to the implementation of industrial policies and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at RMB 8,950 per ton compared with the previous day, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at RMB 9,400 per ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.29% to RMB 8,515 per ton compared with the previous day [1]. - The average prices of non - oxygenated 553 in different regions (Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, Sichuan) and oxygenated 553 in different regions (East China, Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming) and 421 in different regions (East China, Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Sichuan, Kunming) either remained flat or had a small change (the average price of oxygenated 553 in Tianjin Port decreased by 0.55%) [1]. Supply and Demand - On the supply side, as the silicon price continues to rise, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In addition, the southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise start - up rates, so the supply is increasing steadily [1]. - On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some silicon material plants have复产 arrangements, which will bring some demand increments; in the organic silicon sector, a large factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, with a temporary tightening of supply. Recently, monomer plants have recovered, the market supply pressure has increased, and the price may be under pressure again; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream as a whole has insufficient willingness to stock up at a low level [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - The price of N - type dense material remained flat at RMB 50 per kilogram compared with the previous day; the price of N - type re - feed material remained flat at RMB 51.5 per kilogram; the price of N - type mixed material remained flat at RMB 49 per kilogram; the price of N - type granular silicon remained flat at RMB 48.5 per kilogram; the closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.07% to RMB 52,195 per ton compared with the previous day [1]. Supply and Demand - On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some silicon material plants may have new capacity put into production. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly. It is expected that the output will approach 110,000 tons in July and increase to about 130,000 tons in August [1]. - On the demand side, many upstream and downstream enterprises completed procurement and shipment before the end of August. The trading volume in the polysilicon market increased significantly last week, the prices of some low - priced resources continued to rise, and the polysilicon inventory also decreased significantly. The price increase is gradually being transmitted downstream from the silicon material end, but the terminal demand pressure is large. Due to the consideration of IRR in terminal projects, the components are squeezed by both cost and demand, and the price increase faces great resistance, which may lead to reverse price transmission in the industrial chain [1]. Other Information - According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on September 4 was 537,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared with last week. Among them, the social general warehouse inventory was 117,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with last week, and the social delivery warehouse inventory (including unregistered warehouse receipts and spot parts) was 420,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with last week (excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.) [1]. - Zhongneng Energy's solar power project in Dalate Banner, with a total installed capacity of 500,000 kilowatts and a supporting energy storage scale of 75MW/150MWh, was successfully connected to the grid on August 31 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon price is expected to remain in high-level consolidation due to the cooling of sentiment and hedging pressure on the upper side of the futures market, although bullish sentiment has been fluctuating recently. For polysilicon, the price is also expected to maintain high-level consolidation with large fluctuations in the futures market, and continuous attention should be paid to macro sentiment evolution and warrant registration [1]. - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase steadily, while the demand from downstream industries is mixed. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly after offsetting production cuts and new capacity additions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,050 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) also remained flat at 9,600 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.27% to 8,745 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: With the continuous increase in silicon prices, some previously shut-down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise operations. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily [1]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises are maintaining production cuts, but some silicon material plants have复产 plans, which will bring some incremental demand. In the organic silicon sector, a major factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply. Recently, monomer plants have recovered, and the market supply pressure has increased, and prices may come under pressure again. Silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: N-type dense material rose 4.35% to 48 yuan/kg; N-type re-feeding material rose 4.26% to 49 yuan/kg; N-type mixed material rose 4.44% to 47 yuan/kg; N-type granular silicon rose 3.37% to 46 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.24% to 51,045 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Polysilicon enterprises are maintaining production cuts, but some silicon material plants may have new capacity put into operation. After offsetting production cuts and new capacity additions, the output is expected to increase slightly. It is expected that the output in July will approach 110,000 tons, and the output in August will increase month-on-month [1]. - **Demand**: The silicon wafer price lacks upward momentum, the price of some battery cells has loosened due to reduced orders and accumulated inventory, and the component price has continued to weaken due to low acceptance of high prices by the end market and the completion of overseas component export tax rebate stockpiling [1]. Market News - T1 Energy, a US solar manufacturer, has signed a cooperation agreement with Corning, a new silicon material manufacturer and materials giant, to purchase polysilicon and silicon wafers made in the US [1]. - Indian Energy Minister Pralhad Joshi said that India's domestic solar component manufacturing capacity has exceeded 100GW, compared with only 2.3GW in 2014. All capacities are included in the "Model and Manufacturer Approval List" [1]. - Huadian Group's 2025 - 2026 photovoltaic component centralized procurement project for bid sections one and two has opened bids. Bid section one has a scale of 18GW, and bid section two has a scale of 2GW. There are 26 enterprises bidding for bid section two, with a bid price range of 0.7076 - 0.8431 yuan/watt and an average price of 0.7461 yuan/watt [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant increase in nuclear power generation, with a year-on-year growth of 23.0% in March, while thermal power generation has decreased by 2.3% [11] - The overall electricity consumption in March reached 828.2 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, with the first and third industries maintaining high growth rates [20] - The report emphasizes the potential for further declines in coal prices due to increased supply and decreased demand as temperatures rise, which could enhance profitability in thermal power generation [6] Industry Scale - The industry comprises 241 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 370.24 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 344.90 billion [2] Industry Index Performance - The environmental and public utility sectors have shown positive performance, with the public utility index increasing by 1.77% and the environmental index by 0.04% [6][28] - Year-to-date, the environmental sector has a cumulative decline of 1.02%, while the electric power sector has declined by 2.46%, both outperforming the broader market indices [6] Key Data Tracking - As of April 18, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal is 680 yuan/ton, a significant drop of 57.5% from its peak of 1599 yuan/ton in October 2022 [40] - The average electricity price in Guangdong reached a peak of 327.31 yuan/MWh on April 18, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 7.0% [65] - The national carbon market saw a weekly trading volume of 149.89 million tons, a substantial increase of 319.5% [72] Key Events in the Industry - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "New Generation Coal Power Upgrade Special Action Implementation Plan (2025-2027)" [76]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices are expected to continue low-level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 9,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton, and follow-up attention should be paid to the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1] - The price of polysilicon may decline in the future, and the previous long positions can be gradually closed at high prices. The inter - delivery strategy can consider the 06 - 11 positive spread and 11 - 12 negative spread [1] Summary According to Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,950 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon also remained flat at 10,900 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.53% to 9,310 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, furnace starts in Xinjiang decreased, while there were new furnace starts in Sichuan. It is expected that some silicon enterprises in Yunnan will have new capacity put into operation in April, showing a pattern of increasing supply in the south and decreasing in the north. On the demand side, there is no obvious improvement, and the high inventory pressure in the silicon market remains [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Due to the reduction in supply after the production cut of some large northern factories, but the lack of improvement in demand, the short - term silicon price is expected to continue low - level consolidation, and the follow - up should focus on the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1] Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: N - type dense material remained flat at 40 yuan/kg compared to the previous day; polysilicon re - feeding material price remained flat at 36 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.68% to 41,550 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - cut situation, and it is expected that the output in April will still be within 100,000 tons. On the demand side, as the 430 rush - installation node approaches, the demand for distributed component orders has cooled down, but the demand for centralized orders has started to increase [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Considering that the self - disciplined production cut and the rush - installation tide still support the polysilicon price, but the follow - up demand may weaken, the price center may move down. Previous long positions can be gradually closed at high prices, and the inter - delivery strategy can consider the 06 - 11 positive spread and 11 - 12 negative spread [1] Other Products - **DMC**: The domestic DMC market has poor trading recently. Due to high inventory, the mainstream trading center of DMC has moved down to 13,500 yuan/ton, and the price is expected to decline slightly in the future [1] - **Photovoltaic Cells**: Photovoltaic cell prices have started to decline, with different sizes showing different market trends. The price of Topcon210RN batteries has dropped significantly, with a decline of over 12% [1]