该行指，公司自去年底已取得6项对外授权协议，管理层预期下半年将再有2项大规模授权，每项价值料 超过50亿美元。公司除拥有小份子平台，亦建立广泛专有技术平台，涵盖纳米粒子制剂、抗体药物偶联 物、siRNA及抗体与融合蛋白。管理层称有40至50项资产具对外授权潜力，该行预计公司中至长期可持 续产生对外授权收益。 招银国际发布研报称，石药集团(01093)扣除药物授权贡献，中期核心收益同比跌25%至122亿元人民 币，为该行原来预计全年的44%并符合预期。其中第二季核心收益同比跌22%，基本受持续疲软的丁苯 (酉太)(NBP)销售拖累，受医院处方管制收紧及多美素与津优力集采影响。管理层预计下半年核心收益 较上半年改善，产品销售增长最少5%。该行上调对石药目标价，由10.08港元上调至12.11港元，维 持"买入"评级。 ...

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 8 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 10.51 | 港元 | 9.30↑ | -11.6% | | | 石药集团 (1093 HK) | | | | | | | 2Q25 仍承压但业绩拐点将至，研发、BD 稳步推进，上调目标价 公司的存量大单品在 2Q25 继续受到集采、院端医保控费等压力，但我们看好 2H25 及 2026-27 年业绩复苏的机会，考虑到上述影响即将出清、重磅 BD 首 付款对业绩的增厚、以及原料药/功能食品业务的反弹。我们上调目标价，当 前公司估值合理，正向催化剂预期和风险已基本反映在股价中，维持中性。 个股评级 中性 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 8/24 12/24 4/25 8/25 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 1093 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 10.96 | | --- | --- | | 52 ...

记者丨韩璐 斩获多张出海大单，石家庄医药巨头飙升。 8月22日，蔡东晨实控的石药集团收报10.51港元，市值超1200亿港元，较年初增长超过600亿港元。 股价飙升，公司却处于新老交替的转型期。1-6月，营收132.73亿元，净利润25.48亿元，均同比下滑一成多。 | | 截至6月30日止六個月 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025年 | 2024年 | 變動 | | 按 業 務 劃 分 之 收 入 : | | | | | 成 ূ | 10,247,652 | 13.549.079 | -24.4% | | 原料產品 | 2,074,708 | 1.854.794 | +11.9% | | 功能食品及其它 | 951,056 | 880.409 | +8.0% | | 收入總額 | 13,273,416 | 16,284,282 | -18.5% | | 本公司股東應佔溢利 | | | | | 呈 救 | 2,547,851 | 3.020.374 | -15.6% | | 基本(附註) | 2,319,521 | 3,216,870 | -27.9% | 受集采 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to the inclusion of key products in centralized procurement, but it remains optimistic about future growth through innovation and international collaboration [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 13.273 billion RMB, a decrease of 18.5% year-on-year - Profit attributable to shareholders was 2.548 billion RMB, down 15.64% year-on-year - Basic earnings per share were 0.2229 RMB, with an interim dividend proposed at 0.14 HKD per share [1]. Research and Development - R&D expenses increased by 5.5% year-on-year to 2.683 billion RMB, accounting for 26.2% of the revenue from the pharmaceutical business - The company has nearly 90 products in various stages of clinical trials, with 12 submitted for market approval and over 30 key products in the registration clinical phase [1][4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on a "dual-driven" strategy of "innovation + internationalization," enhancing partnerships with global pharmaceutical firms through diverse models such as licensing and collaborative R&D - In the first half of 2025, licensing revenue reached 1.075 billion RMB, indicating strong recognition of the company's innovative pipeline in the international pharmaceutical industry [2][3]. Global Expansion - The company is advancing its global strategy by establishing a comprehensive pharmaceutical value ecosystem and conducting multiple multi-center clinical trials in Europe and the U.S. - It has completed four licensing projects this year, with a cumulative contract amount of 9.71 billion USD, and has entered a strategic R&D collaboration with AstraZeneca [3][4]. Innovation Pipeline - The company has been recognized as one of the top 25 pharmaceutical companies globally by Citeline for three consecutive years, ranking 19th this year, an improvement of five places from the previous year - It has over 200 innovative drugs and formulations in development, with more than 160 clinical trials ongoing, including nearly 60 in Phase III [4].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net inflows from northbound trading, with a total net buy of HKD 75.9 billion on June 10, 2023, indicating strong investor interest in certain stocks while others faced net sell-offs [1]. Group 1: Net Buying and Selling Stocks - Meituan-W (03690) led the net buying with HKD 17.86 billion, showing a net inflow of HKD 2.52 billion [2]. - Stone Pharmaceutical Group (01093) received a net buy of HKD 10.28 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 3.68 billion [2]. - Tencent (00700) faced the highest net sell of HKD 18.91 billion, with a net outflow of HKD 10.44 billion [2][6]. - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) saw a net sell of HKD 8.99 billion, with a net outflow of HKD 3.72 billion [2][7]. Group 2: Notable Company Insights - Meituan's strong merchant base and user reviews are expected to enhance its local business profitability, with new ventures likely to reduce losses [4]. - Stone Pharmaceutical Group is anticipated to secure significant overseas licensing deals, potentially exceeding USD 50 billion each, which could boost its revenue from business development [4]. - Xinda Biopharmaceutical (01801) is projected to benefit from positive clinical data and aims to have five drugs in global Phase III trials by 2030 [5]. - Crystal Technology Holdings (02228) is expected to experience short-term growth driven by policy incentives and long-term growth through customer retention and pipeline development [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market's confidence in AI and cloud services has been shaken due to lower-than-expected capital expenditures and cloud revenue growth, but long-term potential remains positive as these technologies integrate into core business operations [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company with a target price raised to HKD 7.40 from HKD 6.30 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q1 2025 decreased by 21.9% year-on-year to RMB 7.01 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 8.4% to RMB 1.48 billion. Excluding RMB 718 million in licensing fee income, product sales revenue was approximately 4.6% lower than expected, primarily due to a slowdown in the sales of established drugs [1][4]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in product sales revenue starting from Q2 2025, as the impact of centralized procurement for certain oncology drugs has already been reflected, and sales are expected to increase after the inclusion of new drugs in the medical insurance list by the end of 2024 [2][4]. - The company is expected to achieve multiple significant overseas licensing agreements, with Q1 licensing fee income of RMB 718 million primarily from agreements with BeiGene and AstraZeneca. These agreements involve upfront payments totaling USD 250 million (approximately RMB 1.8 billion) and potential milestone payments of up to USD 3.56 billion (approximately RMB 25.6 billion) [3][4]. Financial Summary - The company's projected total revenue for 2025 is RMB 29.89 billion, reflecting a 3.0% growth rate, while net profit is expected to be RMB 4.77 billion, a 10.2% increase. The earnings per share (EPS) is projected at RMB 0.41, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.4 [5][13]. - The financial data indicates a decline in established drug sales, with revenue from the core product Enbrel decreasing by 29.5% year-on-year, and oncology drug sales dropping by 65.7% due to centralized procurement impacts [1][5]. - The report includes a detailed financial forecast, showing total revenue growth rates of 1.7% in 2023, a decline of 7.8% in 2024, and subsequent growth rates of 3.0%, 12.8%, and 12.6% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][13].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market rebounded on June 3, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.5% to close at 23,512 and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.1% to 5,189, indicating a significant recovery in market sentiment [1] - The trading volume reached HKD 203.7 billion, showing a notable increase compared to previous days, although the net inflow from the Stock Connect was only HKD 3.9 billion [1] - Major financial stocks, including CITIC Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China, hit historical highs, reflecting continued investment in high-dividend defensive assets [1] Industry Dynamics - The automotive sector saw a rebound, with Xiaomi's automotive business losses decreasing and expectations for profitability in Q3 or Q4 of this year, driven by the upcoming launch of the YU7 model [3] - The healthcare sector also performed well, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rising by 2.5%. Notable gains were seen in companies reporting positive clinical data at the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) [3] - The renewable energy and utilities sectors experienced widespread gains, with Goldwind Technology rising by 13.3% due to share buyback plans and the establishment of an AI-related subsidiary [4] Company-Specific Insights - The report on CSPC Pharmaceutical Group indicated a 21.9% year-on-year decline in total revenue for Q1 2025, amounting to RMB 7.01 billion, primarily due to a slowdown in the sales of its core products [5] - The company expects a gradual recovery in product sales starting from Q2 2025, as the impact of centralized procurement has already been reflected in Q1 results [6] - CSPC has secured multiple overseas licensing agreements, with expected upfront payments totaling approximately RMB 1 billion and potential milestone payments exceeding RMB 25.6 billion, indicating strong future revenue prospects [7][8] Real Estate Sector Analysis - The report on the Chinese real estate market highlighted a 12.0% year-on-year decline in new home transaction volume across 30 major cities, with first-tier cities showing resilience [9] - First-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen reported increases in cumulative transaction volumes, with Shanghai up by 9.5% and Shenzhen by 45.8% year-on-year [10] - The land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell by 46.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the stock price of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group is driven by the anticipation of significant business development (BD) deals, despite a decline in its Q1 2023 financial performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2023, CSPC reported revenues of approximately 7.015 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.9%, marking the first time since 2022 that quarterly revenue fell below 8 billion yuan [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was about 1.478 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in revenue was primarily due to the performance of the finished drug business, which generated approximately 5.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.3% year-on-year [5]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, CSPC's stock price surged, increasing by 14.08% within half an hour and closing at 7.62, a rise of 11.73% [1]. - The stock continued to rise on May 30, reaching a peak of 8.56 HKD, with a total increase of 25.5% over two days, marking a new high since March 2023 [1]. Business Development Opportunities - CSPC is currently in discussions regarding three potential BD transactions, with a total potential value exceeding 5 billion USD [2]. - The company has been actively pursuing BD agreements to enhance its innovation capabilities, having completed multiple significant deals in recent years [9]. Challenges and Strategic Shift - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to the impact of centralized procurement policies, which have significantly reduced prices for key products [6][7]. - CSPC's transition from generic to innovative drugs has faced challenges, necessitating a focus on innovation to overcome market recognition barriers [9]. Innovation and R&D Investment - CSPC has increased its R&D expenditures, with 2023 and 2024 figures reaching 4.830 billion yuan and 5.191 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 21% and 7.5% [8]. - The company has expanded its pipeline in various therapeutic areas, including oncology and cardiovascular diseases, and is developing advanced drug delivery systems [8]. Product Pipeline and Market Potential - CSPC's ADC asset, SYS6010, has shown promising results in early-phase studies, with a potential peak sales forecast of over 2.5 billion USD in China and 1.5-2 billion USD in international markets [12]. - The positive clinical data for SYS6010 positions it as a strong candidate for future BD opportunities, enhancing CSPC's market competitiveness [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing significant pressure from centralized procurement and medical insurance cost control in Q1 2025, but is expected to see gradual improvement starting from Q2 2025, with projections of achieving three major BD licensing deals exceeding $5 billion each in 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 30% year-on-year, excluding BD income, with the prescription drug segment declining by 37% [1] - Key therapeutic areas experienced declines: CNS down 30% due to medical insurance cost control and a 13% price reduction from negotiations; oncology core products saw a 66% drop in sales due to centralized procurement and channel price adjustments [1] - The company recorded 720 million RMB in licensing fee income, primarily from collaborations with AstraZeneca and BeiGene [1] - Revenue from raw materials increased by 15% year-on-year, driven by demand in the VC market and rising product prices, while functional foods and other business revenues fell by 9% due to declining demand and prices for caffeine [1] - The net profit margin improved by 3.1 percentage points to 21.1% due to high-margin licensing income and cost control efforts [1] Group 2: Future Outlook and BD Transactions - The company anticipates gradual improvement in performance starting Q2 2025, driven by increased promotion of Enbip, stabilization from procurement and inventory adjustments, rapid market entry of new products, and additional BD income recognition [2] - Management expects to achieve three large overseas licensing deals in 2025, each exceeding $5 billion, including a comprehensive technology platform licensing deal [2] - The company is advancing a Phase III study for EGFR ADC in second-line EGFR+ NSCLC in China and has initiated studies for third-line EGFR classic mutation NSCLC overseas, with further discussions with the FDA planned for June [2] - Based on optimistic BD income and operating expense forecasts, the company has raised its revenue projections for 2025-2027 by 1.5-7.5% and net profit forecasts by 8-13% [2] - The DCF target price has been adjusted to 7.2 HKD, corresponding to a 14.7x P/E ratio and 1.1x PEG for 2025, indicating that the current stock price reflects the anticipated pressure on 2025 performance and future BD transactions, with limited upside potential [2]