Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Chlor-alkali Industry**: The PVC market is facing significant challenges due to weak real estate demand and export uncertainties. As of mid-October, the profit from externally sourced calcium carbide for PVC has further declined, reaching below negative 300 yuan, and expanding to a range of negative 350 to 400 yuan [1][3]. - **Soda Ash**: The industry is expected to see new capacity coming online in 2025, maintaining supply pressure. Soda ash prices have slightly decreased to around 2,450 yuan, with ECU profits falling to the range of 200 to 300 yuan, which is an improvement compared to August and September [1][6]. Key Points on PVC Market - **Capacity and Production**: By 2025, PVC capacity is projected to reach 33.94 million tons, with an increase of 2.6 million tons, marking an 8.3% growth, the highest in nearly a decade. However, weak real estate demand and export uncertainties are expected to keep the market fundamentals weak [2][4]. - **Inventory Levels**: PVC inventory levels are significantly higher than in previous years, with the latest inventory at 505,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 25%. High inventory is attributed to new capacity, reduced maintenance, and insufficient demand [5]. - **Export Outlook**: The export volume is expected to slightly decline in Q4 compared to Q3 due to the Indian anti-dumping policy being a core variable. However, the recent removal of BS certification requirements for PVC by India may reduce export volatility [4]. Key Points on Soda Ash Market - **Production and Supply**: The soda ash industry plans to add 1.5 million tons of new capacity in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9%. Current production is stable, with weekly output maintaining around 80,000 tons [6][8]. - **Export Performance**: From January to September 2025, soda ash exports reached approximately 3.098 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 46%, primarily to the overseas alumina industry [10]. - **Domestic Demand**: The domestic alumina industry maintains a high operating rate, supporting strong demand for soda ash. The textile and dyeing industry has also seen a recovery, contributing to stable soda ash demand [11][12]. LPG Market Insights - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: In November, delays in port operations reduced LPG imports, but increased pressure is expected in late November. The PDH units' maintenance has led to a temporary decline in demand, but a recovery is anticipated in December [14][15]. - **Import Trends**: Domestic LPG production is expected to be around 40 million tons, with net imports of 19.4 million tons, accounting for 48% of total supply. The impact of U.S. tariffs has significantly reduced the share of U.S. LPG imports [15]. Natural Rubber Market Overview - **Price Stability**: Natural rubber prices have stabilized between 15,000 and 15,500 yuan. Despite concerns about inventory accumulation, current absolute inventory levels are not high, and no significant accumulation has been observed [24][25]. - **Demand Growth**: From January to September, natural rubber imports increased by 20%, indicating strong consumption. The total inventory levels are similar to last year, suggesting that the increased imports have been absorbed by the market [29]. - **Market Sentiment**: The market is currently dominated by short positions, with significant short interest remaining. However, the absence of strong long positions indicates a potential for price volatility [34][36]. Conclusion - The chlor-alkali and natural rubber markets are facing various challenges, including high inventory levels and weak demand. The soda ash market shows some resilience due to strong domestic demand, while the LPG market is adjusting to supply chain pressures. Overall, careful monitoring of export policies and domestic demand trends will be crucial for future market performance.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Not explicitly stated in the provided text, but the report presents detailed data on the synthetic rubber market including prices, trading volume, open interest, basis, and profit margins for various products such as BR and BD 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Data**: The BR主力合约(12) price was 10480 on 11/13, with a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 290. Open interest was 76365, down 32 from the previous day and 9321 from the previous week. Trading volume was 99633, down 51880 from the previous day. The warehouse receipt quantity was 12510, down 100 from the previous day but up 210 from the previous week. The long - short ratio was 30.52 [3] - **Basis and Spread**: The BR basis was 20 on 11/13, up 50 from the previous day and down 90 from the previous week. The 12 - 01 spread was 0, down 35 from the previous week. RU - BR was 4910, up 120 from the previous day and 105 from the previous week. NR - BR was 1920, up 170 from the previous day and 75 from the previous week [3] - **Spot Prices**: The Shandong market price was 10500, up 100 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week. The Transfar market price was 10420, up 20 from the previous day and 220 from the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 10300, unchanged from the previous day but up 100 from the previous week. CFR Northeast Asia was 1400, unchanged from the previous day but down 50 from the previous week. CFR Southeast Asia was 1682, unchanged from the previous day but down 15 from the previous week [3] - **Profit Margins**: The spot processing profit was 1007, up 100 from the previous day and 47 from the previous week. The import profit was - 1269, up 97 from the previous day and 608 from the previous week. The export profit was 2213, down 84 from the previous day and 286 from the previous week [3] BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Prices**: The Shandong market price was 7150, unchanged from the previous day but up 150 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 6950, unchanged from the previous day but up 50 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7000, up 100 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week. CFR China was 790, unchanged from the previous day but down 20 from the previous week [3] - **Profit Margins**: The ethylene cracking profit data was incomplete. The carbon - four extraction profit data was incomplete. The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1724, unchanged from the previous day but up 50 from the previous week. The import profit was 445, down 2 from the previous day but up 214 from the previous week. The export profit was - 1071, down 70 from the previous day and 1613 from the previous week. The styrene - butadiene production profit was 1200, down 75 from the previous day but up 25 from the previous week. The ABS production profit was - 24, down 57 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week. The SBS production profit was - 160, down 70 from the previous day and 370 from the previous week [3]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: November 13, 2025 [3] 2. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data 2.1 Futures Information - BR主力合约(12) price on November 12 was 10430, with a daily change of 190 and a weekly change of 125 [4] - Open interest on November 12 was 76397, with a daily change of -5644 and a weekly change of -7544 [4] - Trading volume on November 12 was 151513, with a daily change of 62362 and a weekly change of 23369 [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on November 12 was 12610, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 310 [4] - Long - short ratio on November 12 was 30.29, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of -4 [4] 2.2 Basis/Spread/Inter - variety - BR basis on November 12 was -30, with a daily change of -190 and a weekly change of -25 [4] - Styrene - butadiene basis on November 12 was 520, with a daily change of -40 and a weekly change of 125 [4] - 12 - 01 spread on November 12 was 35, with a daily change of -30 and a weekly change of -45 [4] - 01 - 02 spread on November 12 was -5, with a daily change of -10 and a weekly change of -5 [4] - RU - BR spread on November 12 was 4790, with a daily change of -65 and a weekly change of 50 [4] - NR - BR spread on November 12 was 1750, with a daily change of -135 and a weekly change of -75 [4] 2.3 Spot (Domestic/International) - Shandong market price on November 12 was 10400, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 100 [4] - Transfar market price on November 12 was 10400, with a daily change of 150 and a weekly change of 200 [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on November 12 was 10300, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 100 [4] - CFR Northeast Asia price on November 12 was 1400, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -50 [4] - CFR Southeast Asia price on November 12 was 1682, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -12 [4] 2.4 Profit - Spot processing profit on November 12 was 907, with a daily change of -179 and a weekly change of -2 [4] - Import profit on November 12 was -1365, with a daily change of 0 [4] - Export profit on November 12 was 2296, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -209 [4] 3. BD (Butadiene) Data 3.1 Spot Price - Shandong market price on November 12 was 7150, with a daily change of 175 and a weekly change of 100 [4] - Jiangsu market price on November 12 was 6950, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 50 [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on November 12 was 6900, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0 [4] - CFR China price on November 12 was 790, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -30 [4] 3.2 Profit - Ethylene cracking profit data on November 12 was N/A [4] - Carbon four extraction profit data was N/A [4] - Import profit on November 12 was 446, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 300 [4] - Export profit on November 12 was -1072, with a daily change of -230 and a weekly change of -1690 [4] - Styrene - butadiene production profit on November 12 was 1275, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 100 [4] - ABS production profit data was N/A [4] - SBS production profit on November 12 was -90, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -300 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The rubber market is characterized by a rigid supply constraint due to the aging structure of rubber trees, which is a fundamental issue rather than a short-term weather or policy disturbance [1][4] Supply Side - The global rubber supply is entering a seasonal turning point, with production activities in Southeast Asia (Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia) normal but limited in growth potential [1] - The domestic production in Yunnan will begin to halt in early December, which, although representing less than 6% of global output, will reduce market pressure both emotionally and in localized supply [1] - The aging tree issue in key production areas like southern Thailand may continue to restrict future potential output [1] Demand Side - The tire industry, particularly in the all-steel tire segment, is showing resilience, with China's rubber tire output from January to July 2025 increasing by 0.7% year-on-year [2] - Strong export markets, especially for truck tires to African countries, have reached historical highs, offsetting uncertainties in other regions [2] - The domestic heavy truck market is recovering, driven by logistics demand and replacement policies, boosting the demand for all-steel tires [2] - However, there are concerns regarding high finished inventory levels for semi-steel tires and uncertainties in the global macroeconomic outlook that may limit significant demand improvement [2] Market Structure - Overall market inventory is at a historically neutral low level, providing a price safety net and limiting downward pressure [3] - There are structural opportunities in contract price spreads, particularly between domestic all-rubber and NR (20 rubber), which typically narrow seasonally from January to March [3] Future Outlook - The long-term capacity cycle is a key theme, with the aging of rubber trees leading to a lack of supply elasticity, which is crucial for supporting mid-to-long-term price levels [3] - Demand verification is essential, with close attention needed on the sustainability of tire export orders and the strength of the domestic heavy truck market recovery [3] - Global monetary policy and industrial policies in major consuming countries could alter trade flows and impact prices [3] Overall Market Condition - The rubber market is currently in a state of "weak supply-demand balance with neutral low inventory" [4] - In the short term, there is a lack of unilateral drivers to break the current oscillation pattern, and prices are likely to remain within the current range [4] - The rigid supply constraints and resilient demand together form a bottom support for prices, suggesting that focusing on the convergence opportunities between RU and NR may be more feasible than chasing unilateral trends [4]