丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] AI 产业速递：亚马逊 FY25Q2 经营稳健增长， 继续加强 AI 基建 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 亚马逊发布 FY25Q2 最新季度财报，营收利润均超市场预期。FY25Q2 亚马逊实现营业收入 1677.02 亿美元，YoY+13%，环比+8%，高于彭博预期 1621.46 亿美元；实现净利润 181.64 亿美元，YoY+35%，环比+6%；高于彭博预期 142.71 亿美元；此外 Q2 Capex 为 322 亿美元 （不含融资租赁口径），高于彭博预期 260 亿美元。当前 Agent 投资核心逻辑强化，持续看好 Agent 商业化元年投资机遇。建议重视：1）AI 基础设施；2）出海应用：视频、Coding、解决 方案（软硬结合）等 AI+领域；3）场景化落地：教育/税务/医疗等闭环场景中垂直一体化公司。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 宗建树 宋浪 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [6][30]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong retail growth, with revenue of $167.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13% [10]. - Advertising revenue grew by 22% year-on-year, primarily driven by sponsored products, contributing to improved profit margins [2][16]. - The cloud business (AWS) continued its growth momentum with revenue of $30.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, despite facing supply constraints [3][19]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Q2 revenue reached $167.7 billion, surpassing company guidance and Bloomberg consensus expectations of 9.6% growth, with operating profit of $19.2 billion, up 31% year-on-year [10]. - The company expects Q3 revenue to be between $174 billion and $179.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10%-11% [10]. Retail and Other Businesses - Retail and other business revenue was $136.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%, with advertising revenue contributing significantly [2][16]. - The operating profit margin for retail and other businesses reached 6.6%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, due to improved logistics efficiency [2][16]. Cloud Business - AWS revenue was $30.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, with an operating profit margin of 32.9% [3][19]. - The company is experiencing supply constraints due to chip shortages and delivery delays, which are expected to persist in the coming quarters [3][19]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to $706.3 billion, $776.9 billion, and $856.2 billion, respectively [30]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period have been slightly reduced to $70.9 billion, $82.6 billion, and $99.0 billion, respectively [30]. Key Financial Metrics - The company is projected to achieve an EPS of $6.70 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 32 [5][32]. - The operating margin is expected to improve to 11% by 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 20% in 2025 [5][32].

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's Q2 earnings report reveals a mixed performance, with strong revenue but significant concerns over AWS's growth and profitability, particularly in the context of AI demand outpacing supply and rising operational costs [1][2][5][6]. Financial Performance - Amazon's total revenue for Q2 reached $167.7 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase when excluding foreign exchange impacts [27]. - AWS generated $30.9 billion in sales, reflecting a 17.5% year-over-year growth, but this growth is seen as insufficient compared to competitors [1][30]. - AWS's operating profit margin fell sharply from 39.5% in Q1 to 32.9% in Q2, primarily due to increased capital expenditures for AI support [2][31]. AI and Supply Constraints - CEO Andy Jassy acknowledged a significant supply constraint in AI capabilities, stating that demand currently exceeds supply, with electricity being the primary limiting factor [5][6][41]. - The company is investing heavily in AI infrastructure, including the development of its proprietary AI chip, Trainium2, which is claimed to be 30% to 40% more cost-effective than competitors' GPUs [3][8][22]. Competitive Landscape - Despite AWS's strong position, concerns are growing about its ability to maintain market leadership as competitors achieve higher growth rates [1][30]. - Jassy emphasized AWS's advantages in security and operational performance, attempting to reassure investors about its competitive edge [2][8][37]. Other Business Segments - Amazon's retail business performed well, with record sales during Prime Day and a 22% year-over-year growth in advertising revenue [3][7][30]. - However, Jassy expressed caution regarding potential impacts from tariffs, indicating uncertainty about future demand and pricing [4][7][18]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue investing in AI and cloud infrastructure to meet growing demand, with expectations of gradual improvements in supply constraints over the coming quarters [31][41]. - Amazon's Project Kuiper aims to address the digital divide by providing broadband access to underserved areas, indicating a long-term growth strategy beyond its core e-commerce and cloud services [47].

Core Insights - Amazon is shifting its focus to designing products for "non-human" customers, such as software agents that can autonomously make purchasing decisions [3][4] - CEO Andy Jassy emphasized the company's ambition to lead in agentic AI development and infrastructure, addressing the growing demand for tools to deploy AI agents securely and at scale [4][5] Financial Performance - In the second quarter, Amazon reported net sales of $167.7 billion, a 13% increase year-over-year, and operating income rose 31% to $19.2 billion [12] - North America retail sales grew by 11%, while advertising revenue increased by 22% to $15.7 billion [12] - AWS achieved a 17.5% growth rate, reaching a $123 billion annualized run-rate, although its margin decreased to 32.9% due to rising stock-based compensation and depreciation [12] Future Outlook - Amazon's management expects third-quarter revenue to be between $174 billion and $179.5 billion, indicating high-single-digit to low-double-digit growth, with projected operating income of $15.5 billion to $20.5 billion [13] - The company is investing heavily in data centers and custom AI chips, which has led to a decrease in free cash flow to $18.2 billion over the past 12 months [13] - Jassy highlighted the early stage of the AI market, suggesting significant future opportunities as Amazon aims to monetize its non-human customer base [14]