讲究 所 行业轮动ETF策略周报 证券分析师:张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht. com. cn 2025年11月24日 证券分析师:李杜 S0670524040001 021-50800937 l idu@cnht. com. cn 策略说明: · 金融街证券研究所基于策略报告《行业轮动下的策略组合报告:基于行业风格延续和 切换视角下的定量分析》(20241007)和《股票型ETF市场概览与配置方法研究:以基 于行业轮动策略的ETF组合为例》(20241013),构建基于行业和主题ETF的策略组合。 策略更新: | 基金代码 | ETF名称 | ETF市值 | 持有情况 | 重仓申万 行业 | | 周度择时信号 日度择时信号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | 及权重 | 参考 | 参考 | | 159227 | 航空航天ETF | 19.88 | 继续持有 | 航空装备 (59.16%) | -1 | -1 | | 159667 | 工业母机ETF | 5 ...

Strategy Overview - The report focuses on the industry rotation ETF strategy, recommending a portfolio based on industry and thematic ETFs, with an emphasis on quantitative analysis of industry style continuation and switching [2][3]. Recommended Sectors and Products - For the week of November 17, 2025, the model recommends increasing allocations to sectors such as communication equipment, consumer electronics, and real estate development. New additions include real estate ETF, consumer electronics ETF, and gaming ETF, while continuing to hold communication ETF and VRETF [2][3]. Performance Tracking - From November 10 to November 14, 2025, the strategy recorded a cumulative net return of approximately -2.23%, with an excess return of -1.11% compared to the CSI 300 ETF. Since October 14, 2024, the cumulative return of the strategy is about 22.80%, with an excess return of 0.64% relative to the CSI 300 ETF [2][3][11].

Report Overview - The report is a weekly strategy report on sector rotation ETFs from November 3, 2025, to November 9, 2025 [2] Core Views - The strategy is based on two research reports and constructs a strategy portfolio of sector and thematic ETFs [2] - For the week of November 10, 2025, the model recommends allocating to sectors such as communication equipment, software development, and consumer electronics [2] - The strategy will add holdings of Cloud Computing ETF, Battery ETF, Industrial Non - Ferrous Metals ETF, etc., and continue to hold Communication ETF, VR ETF, etc. Some ETFs and target index trading timing signals gave daily or weekly risk warnings as of last weekend [2] Performance Tracking - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the cumulative net return of the strategy was approximately - 0.76%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was approximately - 1.58% [2] - Since October 14, 2024, the cumulative out - of - sample return of the strategy was about 25.60%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 2.13% [2] Recommended Portfolio for the Next Week (20251110 - 20251114) | Fund Code | ETF Name | ETF Market Cap (Billion Yuan) | Holding Status | Coincident Shenwan Sector and Weight | Weekly Timing Signal | Daily Timing Signal | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 515880 | Communication ETF | 117.77 | Continue to hold | Communication Equipment (75.3%) | 1 | 0 | | 516510 | Cloud Computing ETF | 19.86 | Add | Software Development (30.54%) | 0 | 0 | | 159786 | VR ETF | 2.10 | Continue to hold | Consumer Electronics (28.46%) | 1 | - 1 | | 159755 | Battery ETF | 165.64 | Add | Battery (62.54%) | 1 | 1 | | 560860 | Industrial Non - Ferrous Metals ETF | 56.84 | Add | Industrial Metals (57.65%) | 1 | 1 | | 512220 | TMT ETF | 5.48 | Continue to hold | Semiconductor (37.25%) | 1 | 0 | | 512660 | Military Industry ETF | 142.21 | Add | Aviation Equipment (35.02%) | 0 | - 1 | | 159870 | Chemical Industry ETF | 172.55 | Add | Chemical Products (25.73%) | 1 | 1 | | 159667 | Industrial Mother Machine ETF | 6.04 | Add | Automation Equipment (47.2%) | 1 | - 1 | | 588830 | Science and Innovation New Energy ETF | 10.06 | Add | Photovoltaic Equipment (46.08%) | 1 | 1 | [2] Holdings and Performance in the Past Week (20251103 - 20251107) | Fund Code | ETF Name | ETF Market Cap (Billion Yuan) | Recent 1 - week Return (%) | Holding Status | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 515880 | Communication ETF | 117.77 | 0.40 | Continue to hold | | 159768 | Real Estate ETF | 5.88 | - 0.66 | Remove | | 159869 | Game ETF | 113.12 | - 0.49 | Remove | | 562050 | Pharmaceutical ETF | 1.06 | - 3.04 | Remove | | 512800 | Bank ETF | 205.57 | 2.71 | Remove | | 159766 | Tourism ETF | 35.92 | 2.32 | Remove | | 512220 | TMT ETF | 5.48 | - 0.47 | Continue to hold | | 159786 | VR ETF | 2.10 | - 2.04 | Continue to hold | | 516560 | Pension ETF | 1.33 | - 1.25 | Remove | | 588700 | Science and Innovation Pharmaceutical ETF (Harvest) | 3.16 | - 5.10 | Remove | | | ETF Portfolio Average Return | | - 0.76 | | | 510300 | CSI 300 ETF | 4277.20 | 0.82 | | | | ETF Portfolio Excess Return | | - 1.58 | | [11]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the construction of strategy portfolios based on industry and thematic ETFs, focusing on industry style continuation and switching perspectives through quantitative analysis [2][3]. - The strategy update indicates a recommendation to hold or adjust positions in various ETFs, reflecting a tactical approach to industry rotation [2][3]. ETF Performance Summary - The report lists several ETFs with their market values, holding status, and dominant sectors, indicating a focus on aerospace, military electronics, semiconductors, and traditional media sectors [3][12]. - The cumulative net return for the strategy from September 22 to September 26, 2025, was approximately -0.12%, with an excess return of -1.14% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [3][12]. - Since October 14, 2024, the cumulative return for the strategy sample outside the main portfolio was about 24.76%, outperforming the CSI 300 ETF by approximately 4.92% [3][4]. Recommended ETF Adjustments - The report suggests adding positions in the Satellite ETF, Central Enterprise Technology ETF, and Central Enterprise Innovation ETF while maintaining positions in the Aerospace ETF, Film and Television ETF, and Steel ETF [3][12]. - The weekly model recommends focusing on sectors such as aerospace equipment, military electronics, and semiconductors for the upcoming week [12].

Group 1 - The ETF market showed mixed performance with the wine ETF (512690) leading gains at 2.53% [2] - The China Securities Dividend Quality ETF (159209) increased by 1.68% [2] - The VRETF (159786) rose by 1.52% [2] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Medical ETF (159303) experienced the largest decline, falling by 4.95% [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (159570) decreased by 3.36% [2] - The Cloud 50 ETF (560660) dropped by 3.19% [2]