Market Overview - Investors face a dilemma of holding stocks or cash during the upcoming National Day holiday, as A-shares will be closed while overseas markets remain open [1] - Historical data indicates a "post-holiday effect" in the A-share market, with a higher probability of a "post-holiday opening red" [1][2] - Over the past decade, the Shanghai Composite Index has generally performed better after holidays compared to before, with post-holiday gains often being more sustained during significant market rallies [1] A-share Performance Data - The table shows the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index before and after the National Day holiday from 2015 to 2024, highlighting the percentage changes [2] - The probability of the index rising post-holiday is 70% for the first trading day and 60% for the first five trading days [2] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market exhibits a "mid-holiday effect," with a tendency to rise during the National Day holiday, although the first trading day after the holiday may be weaker [5] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a higher probability of rising post-holiday, especially when the market is in an upward trend [5][6] Sector Performance Expectations - In the A-share market, sectors such as computer, beauty care, environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, and automotive are expected to show strong performance in the five trading days following the holiday [8] - For the Hong Kong market, all sectors except comprehensive finance have an upward probability of over 60%, with consumer, high-beta, and growth sectors performing relatively well during the holiday [8][9] Investment Strategies - The report suggests focusing on "hard technology" sectors, including technology, chips, computing power, robotics, and artificial intelligence, as they are expected to lead market trends [11][13] - The "anti-involution" theme is highlighted, particularly in the battery and non-ferrous metals sectors, which are anticipated to benefit from policy catalysts and demand [13] - The report also emphasizes the potential of innovative pharmaceuticals, particularly in the Hong Kong market, due to favorable liquidity conditions and low valuations [14] Broader Market Trends - The report indicates that broad-based ETFs are likely to capture market trends effectively, with financial sectors such as brokerage firms expected to lead the charge [11] - The consumer sector is also highlighted as a key area of interest, especially during the holiday season, with significant inflows into consumer-focused ETFs [14]

好 究 所 行业轮动 [F策略周报 (20250922-20250928) 证券研究报告·策略周报 证券分析师:张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht.com.cn 2025年9月29日 证券分析师:李杜 S0670524040001 021-50800937 l idu@cnht. com. cn 策略说明: · 金融街证券研究所基于策略报告《行业轮动下的策略组合报告:基于行业风格延续和 切换视角下的定量分析》(20241007)和《股票型ETF市场概览与配置方法研究:以基 于行业轮动策略的ETF组合为例》(20241013),构建基于行业和主题ETF的策略组合。 策略更新: | 基金代码 | ETF 名称 | ETF市值 | 持有情况 | 重仓申万 行业 | | 周度择时信号 日度择时信号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | 及权重 | 参考 | 参考 | | 159227 | 航空航天ETF | 13.51 | 继续持有 | 航空装备 (58.23%) | 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The disparity in performance between Hong Kong and A-share pharmaceutical stocks is attributed to the perceived growth potential in overseas markets, while the domestic market faces challenges due to past centralized procurement practices [1][2]. Group 1: Centralized Procurement Impact - Centralized procurement is viewed as a significant challenge for A-share pharmaceutical companies, with the recent announcement of the 11th batch of drug procurement emphasizing a "reverse inward competition" approach [2][5]. - The new procurement rules aim to prevent companies from quoting abnormally low prices, ensuring that selected companies can maintain profitability [5][12]. - The focus of this procurement round is to improve the pricing mechanism, benefiting large leading companies with better cost control [5][6]. Group 2: Beneficiaries of Procurement Changes - The companies likely to benefit from the new procurement rules include domestic pharmaceutical leaders, companies previously affected by procurement issues in medical devices and vaccines, and innovative drug companies [5][6]. - The market sentiment is expected to improve for innovative drug ETFs, with a potential for valuation recovery driven by enhanced profitability in the pharmaceutical sector [6][8]. Group 3: ETF Performance and Market Trends - The performance of various pharmaceutical ETFs is analyzed, with innovative drug ETFs showing a strong recovery potential due to market sentiment [6][8]. - The biopharmaceutical ETF category is broad, encompassing various sectors, and is expected to benefit from the new procurement policies [8][10]. - Medical device ETFs are highlighted for their growth potential, although they carry higher risks due to their sensitivity to procurement changes [10][11]. Group 4: Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Insights - The impact of centralized procurement on TCM is limited, with more significant opportunities arising from fluctuations in raw material prices rather than procurement policies [14][17]. - The valuation of the TCM sector is currently low, presenting a potential opportunity for stable investors [14][17].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strategy based on sector rotation and thematic ETFs, suggesting a focus on sectors like chemical pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and aerospace equipment for the upcoming week [2][3]. - The model portfolio has shown a cumulative net return of approximately 3.12% for the period from September 8 to September 12, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 ETF by about 1.65% [4]. Sector Recommendations - The report recommends increasing holdings in the following ETFs: - Sci-Tech Chip Design ETF - Traditional Chinese Medicine ETF - Biomedicine ETF - Continued holdings are suggested for: - Pharmaceutical ETF - Aerospace ETF - Satellite ETF [3][12]. Performance Tracking - Since October 14, 2024, the strategy has achieved a cumulative return of approximately 25.17%, with an excess return of about 6.13% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [4]. - The average return of the ETF portfolio for the recent week was 3.12%, with a notable excess return of 1.65% over the CSI 300 ETF [13]. ETF Holdings and Signals - The report details specific ETFs and their respective weights, indicating a continued hold or adjustment based on market signals: - Pharmaceutical ETF (58.63% weight) - continue holding - Semiconductor ETF (96.38% weight) - newly added - Aerospace ETF (58.23% weight) - continue holding - Satellite ETF (32.59% weight) - continue holding [12][13]. Market Timing Signals - The timing signals for the ETFs are based on volume and price indicators, with values of 1 indicating bullish signals, 0 neutral, and -1 bearish [4].

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector remains a key theme in bull markets, and investors should not overlook it despite recent fluctuations in stock performance [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - In August, technology stocks dominated the market, overshadowing other sectors, including pharmaceuticals, which had previously outperformed with over 40% gains [3][5]. - The innovative drug index has shown a lackluster performance recently, with only a 2.76% increase this month, significantly lagging behind other indices [3][5]. - Popular pharmaceutical stocks like Innovent Biologics and 3SBio have entered a phase of high-level consolidation, raising questions about the sustainability of the pharmaceutical sector's growth [5]. Group 2: Fund Performance - As of August 22, 97.3% of the 1,039 ETFs recorded positive returns, with an average return of 20.79% year-to-date [6]. - The pharmaceutical sector-related ETFs continue to lead in performance, with several Hong Kong innovative drug funds seeing returns exceeding 110% [7][11]. - A significant inflow of funds into Hong Kong innovative drug ETFs has been observed, with some funds increasing their share by over 150% since August 1 [13]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector remains strong, attracting continuous capital inflow, with a total scale of 178.7 billion [7]. - The medical device sector has emerged as a strong performer this month, with several ETFs seeing over 100% growth in fund shares [14][17]. - The medical device index has a historical valuation that suggests room for growth compared to previous bull markets [19]. Group 4: Investment Trends - Recent trends indicate a rotation in investment focus from innovative drugs to medical devices, as funds seek lower-priced opportunities within strong themes [20]. - The performance of traditional Chinese medicine and vaccine sectors has lagged, with funds showing less interest in these areas [21][26]. - The medical device sector's average gain of 41.8% this year indicates a broad-based rally, making related ETFs attractive for investors [30]. Group 5: Fund Manager Strategies - Fund managers are increasingly looking to realize profits from innovative drugs while reallocating to medical devices, reflecting a strategic shift in investment focus [37]. - The top-performing funds in the pharmaceutical sector have shown significant gains, but many are experiencing net redemptions as investors take profits [38][40]. - The performance of active pharmaceutical funds has improved, with many funds finally recovering from previous downturns [31][36].

Group 1 - KANGYUAN Pharmaceutical (600557.SH) released its semi-annual report for 2025 on August 28, 2025, showing that as of August 27, 2025, 19 institutional investors disclosed holding A-shares, totaling 275 million shares, which accounts for 48.54% of the total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors include Jiangsu Kangyuan Group Co., Ltd., Lianyungang Kangbeier Medical Equipment Co., Ltd., Central Huijin Asset Management Co., Ltd., Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, and several funds managed by major financial institutions, with the top ten investors holding a combined 48.13% of shares, a decrease of 1.28 percentage points from the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - In the public fund sector, five new public funds were disclosed this period compared to the previous quarter, including Penghua Value Advantage Mixed (LOF), Traditional Chinese Medicine ETF, and others [2] - Three public funds were not disclosed this period compared to the previous quarter, including Qianhai United National Health Mixed A and others [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant rally, driven by improved market confidence, active capital flow, heightened investor risk appetite, and a booming industrial sector, particularly in technology and innovation [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Drivers - Policy improvements have bolstered capital market confidence and catalyzed economic recovery, with GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, surpassing the annual target [1]. - The capital market is seeing sustained activity, with margin trading balances reaching a near 10-year high and daily trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan, attracting foreign investment due to lower valuations of Chinese assets amid a U.S. interest rate cut cycle [1]. - Investor risk appetite has significantly increased due to policy catalysts and expectations of economic recovery [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - ETFs are highlighted as effective tools for navigating the current market, addressing stock selection challenges and lowering investment thresholds, with many ETFs priced around 1 yuan per unit, making them accessible [5][6]. - The securities sector is poised for growth, supported by active trading, new business ventures by Chinese brokerages, and strong financial policies, making securities ETFs a focal point for investment [7]. - The semiconductor sector shows robust recovery, with a projected net profit growth of 104% for 2025, driven by AI advancements and domestic substitution trends [7]. - The cloud computing sector is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for computing power, with ETFs capturing both domestic and Hong Kong market opportunities [7]. - The robotics sector is experiencing rapid development, with various products and themes emerging, presenting investment opportunities in robotics ETFs [7]. - Traditional energy and new energy sectors are also highlighted, with ETFs focusing on industrial metals and renewable energy benefiting from favorable policies and market demand [7][8]. Group 3: Consumer and Technology Focus - The consumer sector is gaining traction, with significant inflows into consumer ETFs, reflecting a strong emphasis on domestic consumption [8]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors are expected to thrive under supportive policies and market conditions, with ETFs focusing on technology innovation and growth [9].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the Chinese Medicine ETF (159647) has seen a net financing inflow of 64.19 million yuan on August 25, 2025, with a total financing balance of 2872.13 million yuan, indicating a positive trend in investor sentiment towards this ETF [1][2][3] - Over the past three trading days, the cumulative net financing inflow has reached 668.51 million yuan, suggesting sustained interest from investors [1] - The financing balance increased by 2.29% on August 25 compared to the previous day, reflecting a growing confidence in the market [2][3] Group 2 - The financing activities show fluctuations, with a notable net inflow of 517.71 million yuan on August 22, 2025, which was a significant increase of 22.61% from the previous balance [2][3] - The financing balance on August 21 was 2290.22 million yuan, indicating a smaller increase of 3.93% compared to the previous day [3] - The data indicates that there were no short-selling transactions on August 25, which may imply a focus on long positions among investors [1][2]

Group 1 - The Zhongzheng Traditional Chinese Medicine Index (930641) increased by 0.44% as of August 20, 2025, with notable gains from Renhe Pharmaceutical (000650) at 10.00%, Fangsheng Pharmaceutical (603998) at 9.99%, and Zhenbaodao (603567) at 3.25% [1] - Yiling Pharmaceutical announced that its new drug registration application for "Xiaoer Lianhua Qinggan Granules" has been formally accepted by the National Medical Products Administration, aimed at treating acute upper respiratory infections in children [1] - The Zhongzheng Traditional Chinese Medicine Index reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in the production and sales of traditional Chinese medicine [1] Group 2 - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng Traditional Chinese Medicine Index include Yunnan Baiyao (000538), Pian Zai Huang (600436), and Tong Ren Tang (600085), collectively accounting for 54.58% of the index [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) sector, particularly the rise of the Zhongzheng TCM Index and its constituent stocks, driven by regulatory improvements and consumer confidence in TCM products [1][2] - The Zhongzheng TCM Index (930641) saw a significant increase of 1.05%, with notable gains from stocks such as Xintian Pharmaceutical (002873) up 9.99% and Kangyuan Pharmaceutical (600557) up 9.98% [1] - Regulatory bodies across various regions, including Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Hubei, are enhancing TCM quality control measures, focusing on the management of TCM decoction pieces and overall product safety [1] Group 2 - Jianghai Securities emphasizes that the labeling of expiration dates on TCM decoction pieces increases product transparency, which can enhance consumer confidence and potentially expand the market for TCM products [2] - As consumer awareness of TCM decoction pieces grows, companies are encouraged to invest in brand building and product quality, leading to innovations such as smaller packaging and new dosage forms that meet consumer needs [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng TCM Index account for 54.58% of the index, with major players including Yunnan Baiyao (000538) and Pianzaihuang (600436) [2]