整理 | 褚杏娟 当地时间 10 月 7 日，美国科学家 John Clarke、Michel H. Devoret 和 John M. Martinis 因"揭示量子物理实际应用的实验"荣获 2025 年诺贝尔物理学 奖，为下一代数字技术的发展奠定了基础。三人将分享 1100 万瑞典克朗（120 万美元）的奖金。 "我完全惊呆了。我从来没有想过这会成为诺贝尔奖的基础，"Clarke 通过电话向诺贝尔新闻发布会表示。他补充道，尽管他在 20 世纪 80 年代领导了这 三人的工作，但另外两人的贡献"是压倒性的"。Clarke 还表示，他们的研究得以开展，离不开 Anthony Leggett 与 Brian Josephson 的工作 —— 这两位 科学家为他们在超导电路隧穿效应方面的研究奠定了基础。Leggett 与 Josephson 均为往届诺贝尔奖得主。 "我现在用手机和你通话，我猜你也是一样。而手机之所以能正常工作，背后的原因之一就是所有这些研究的成果。"Clarke 表示。 Martinis 告诉《自然》杂志，他的妻子是在半夜（加州时间）得知这个消息的，但她决定暂时不叫醒他。"我六点前就醒了。然后我 ...

Group 1 - Huang Renxun's shift from skepticism to support for quantum computing has generated significant excitement in the tech industry [1][2] - NVIDIA has officially entered the quantum computing sector by investing in Quantinuum, a company controlled by Honeywell International, with a valuation of $10 billion [1][2] - Huang Renxun announced the launch of the open-source quantum development platform CUDA-Q, aimed at bridging quantum computing and classical high-performance computing [1][4] Group 2 - Quantinuum, formed by the merger of Honeywell's quantum solutions division and Cambridge Quantum Computing in 2021, focuses on ion trap quantum computing and has seen its valuation double from $5 billion to $10 billion in just 18 months [2][3] - Huang Renxun previously expressed doubts about the commercial viability of quantum computing, suggesting it could take decades for practical applications to emerge [2][3] Group 3 - Following a public apology in March 2025, Huang Renxun acknowledged his previous misjudgments regarding the timeline for quantum computing commercialization [3] - NVIDIA's investment in Quantinuum is part of a broader strategy to enhance its quantum computing capabilities, including the establishment of a quantum research center in Boston [7][12] Group 4 - The integration of quantum computing and AI is a central theme in Huang Renxun's vision, with CUDA-Q designed to enable hybrid programming that utilizes GPU, CPU, and QPU resources [5][6] - Huang Renxun predicts exponential growth in quantum computing capabilities, likening it to Moore's Law, with qubit counts expected to increase tenfold every five years [6] Group 5 - The global interest in quantum computing is rising, with significant investments being made by various tech giants, including a $620 million funding round for PsiQuantum led by BlackRock [8][9] - The emergence of European quantum computing unicorns, such as IQM, highlights the growing competitive landscape in the quantum sector [9] Group 6 - The U.S. capital market is experiencing a surge in quantum computing investments, with over 200 companies now operating in this space [11] - Quantum computing is anticipated to revolutionize various fields, including AI, by drastically reducing computation times for complex tasks [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing reported a larger-than-expected loss for Q2 2025, with significant revenue decline and a focus on advancing its quantum computing technology [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported an adjusted loss per share of $0.13, compared to the market expectation of a loss of $0.04 [1]. - Total revenue for the quarter was $1.8 million, a year-over-year decrease of 41.9%, falling short of the expected $1.87 million [1]. - Net loss for the quarter was $39.7 million, which included a non-cash loss of $22.8 million related to warrant derivatives and fair value changes [1]. - Operating expenses were $20.4 million, leading to an operating loss of $19.9 million [1]. - Rigetti completed a $350 million equity financing, enhancing its financial position, and reported approximately $571.6 million in cash and equivalents with no debt as of June 30, 2025 [1]. Technological Advancements - Rigetti introduced its multi-chip quantum computer "Cepheus-1-36Q," claiming it to be the largest in the industry, featuring four small chips with a median two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.5% [2]. - The error rate of the new system is reduced by half compared to the previous Ankaa-3 system [2]. - The company plans to launch a system with over 100 qubits by the end of 2025, maintaining a median two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.5% [2]. - The quantum computing systems leverage quantum mechanics properties, potentially surpassing traditional computing capabilities in specific areas [2]. Industry Context - Despite advancements, no company has yet achieved practical, large-scale quantum computing with precise control over quantum states [3]. - Industry leaders like NVIDIA and Microsoft are pushing towards significant technological breakthroughs in quantum computing [4]. - The quantum technology investment surge has led to a dramatic increase in Rigetti's stock price, which has risen over 1700% in the past year, although it saw a 3.5% drop post-earnings announcement [4].

Core Viewpoint - The quantum computing industry is on the brink of a significant breakthrough, with the "quantum supremacy era" expected to arrive in the coming years, promising revolutionary applications across various scientific fields [1][6]. Group 1: Quantum Supremacy - Quantum supremacy refers to the milestone where quantum processors can perform specific tasks that classical supercomputers cannot achieve in a reasonable timeframe, marking a historic moment in computing [1][2]. - The concept was first introduced by physicist John Preskill in 2012, emphasizing the ability of quantum machines to outperform classical machines [1][2]. Group 2: Key Players in Quantum Computing - IonQ, along with other U.S. leaders like Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing, is developing advanced quantum computers and networks, each focusing on different technological approaches [3][6]. - IonQ specializes in ion trap quantum computing, while Rigetti focuses on superconducting chip scalability and quantum hybrid cloud, D-Wave on quantum annealing, and Quantum Computing on room-temperature photonics [3]. Group 3: Industry Investment and Growth - Major tech companies such as Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and IBM are investing hundreds of millions into quantum computing, indicating a growing interest from Wall Street investors [4][5]. - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang expressed optimism about the rapid advancement of quantum computing, predicting a tenfold increase in logical qubits every five years [4][5]. Group 4: Potential Applications - Quantum computing is expected to bring significant breakthroughs in fields like medicine and pharmaceuticals, with IonQ collaborating with Nvidia, Amazon AWS, and AstraZeneca on drug discovery projects [6]. - The technology aims to solve complex problems that classical computers struggle with, paving the way for practical applications in various industries [4][6]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Cantor Fitzgerald recently initiated coverage on leading quantum computing companies, rating IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave with "buy" ratings, highlighting the immense economic potential of quantum computing [7]. - The rapid development in quantum technologies, including ion trap and quantum annealing advancements, suggests a paradigm shift towards practical quantum applications [7][8].

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing has gained significant attention in the U.S. stock market due to Cantor Fitzgerald initiating coverage with a "buy" rating and a target price of $15, indicating Wall Street's growing interest in quantum computing as a lucrative investment opportunity [1][2] - The quantum computing sector is still in its infancy but is recognized as a highly sought-after technological milestone with potential for substantial economic impact in the future [1][3] - Major tech companies like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and IBM are heavily investing in quantum computing, signaling a competitive landscape and the potential for significant advancements in commercial applications [1][4][8] Company Developments - Rigetti recently completed a $350 million stock issuance to strengthen its balance sheet [2] - NVIDIA's CEO Huang Renxun highlighted that quantum computing is approaching a critical technological turning point, with the potential to solve significant global issues in the coming years [4][5] - Cisco has announced its entry into the quantum computing field by showcasing a prototype chip for connecting quantum computers, indicating a broadening interest in the sector [6] Industry Trends - The concept of a "Transformer moment" in quantum computing is emerging, which refers to the development of controllable and commercially valuable quantum computing applications [7][8] - Recent advancements in technologies such as ion traps and quantum annealing are paving the way for practical quantum computing applications, moving from theoretical concepts to real-world implementations [7][8] - The involvement of major tech giants and government support is expected to accelerate the commercialization of quantum computing on a global scale [8]

Group 1: Core Insights - Nvidia is in deep negotiations to invest in quantum computing startup PsiQuantum, reflecting CEO Jensen Huang's optimism about the future of quantum computing [1][5] - PsiQuantum aims to build the world's first useful quantum computer, utilizing photonic technology and traditional semiconductor manufacturing processes [2][4] - The company has faced delays in its plans to commercialize quantum computing, initially targeting 2023 but now aiming for 2029 or earlier for its first commercial system [4][6] Group 2: PsiQuantum's Technology and Progress - PsiQuantum collaborates with GlobalFoundries to produce quantum chips named Omega, achieving production of millions of chips with semiconductor-matching yields [3][4] - The company has successfully addressed a key challenge in quantum computing by developing a scalable method for manufacturing commercially viable quantum chips [2][3] - Recent funding of $750 million led by BlackRock has positioned PsiQuantum to manufacture millions of quantum chips and collaborate with governments in Australia and the U.S. [4][10] Group 3: Industry Context and Competition - The quantum computing industry is experiencing significant investment, with a reported $1.2 billion raised in Q1 2023, marking a 125% year-over-year increase [8] - Major players like Microsoft and Google are also advancing in quantum technology, with Microsoft introducing the Majorana 1 chip and Google planning to release the Willow chip [8][9] - Domestic quantum computing startups in China are also gaining traction, with several securing funding in May 2023 for their quantum chip development [10]

Core Viewpoint - D-Wave claims to have achieved "quantum supremacy" with its upcoming Advantage 2 quantum system, asserting it can solve problems that traditional computers cannot, despite facing skepticism from the scientific community [2][14][15]. Group 1: Company Achievements - D-Wave's Advantage 2 quantum system, featuring 1,200 qubits, is said to have solved a problem in minutes that would take traditional supercomputers a million years [2]. - The company reported a record revenue of $23.9 million in the past year, a 128% increase from $10.5 million in 2023, with over $300 million in the bank [3]. - D-Wave has established a new business model to sell its quantum systems directly to data centers, following the purchase of its Advantage quantum system by the Jülich Supercomputing Centre [2][3]. Group 2: Future Roadmap - D-Wave plans to enhance its hardware roadmap, starting with the release of Advantage 2, which will eventually scale to 4,400 qubits [5][8]. - The company aims to develop a system with 100,000 qubits, transitioning to a multi-chip architecture to increase qubit count while maintaining connectivity and coherence [9][10]. - Future updates include Advantage 2 Performance in 2026 and Advantage 3 by 2030, indicating a long-term commitment to advancing quantum technology [8]. Group 3: Technical Advancements - Advantage 2 features improved connectivity, with each qubit connected to 20 others, doubling the coherence time and increasing energy scale by 40% compared to the previous Advantage system [8]. - D-Wave is also accelerating the development of gate-model quantum systems, which have broader applications than its current annealing technology [10][12]. - The company is integrating digital simulation with its annealing systems to enhance performance on optimization problems [12]. Group 4: Industry Controversies - D-Wave's claims of quantum supremacy have been met with skepticism, as some researchers argue that traditional computing methods can replicate their results [14][16]. - Critics highlight that while D-Wave's technology shows promise, it is still limited to specific types of problems, primarily optimization tasks [15][18]. - Despite the controversies, experts acknowledge that D-Wave's machines can outperform traditional methods in certain scenarios, emphasizing the potential for practical applications in scientific research [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a bullish long-term outlook on gold, suggesting that the current global order is undergoing a significant transformation, akin to historical periods of major upheaval [2]. Group 1: Introduction and Background - Traditional pricing models for gold are failing to explain its recent price increases, as gold prices have reached new highs despite a strong dollar index [12]. - The article proposes a framework for extreme scenario analysis to assess gold's price elasticity and potential growth under various extreme conditions [15]. Group 2: Extreme Scenario Analysis Scenario 1: Emerging Market Accumulation - Emerging markets are increasingly concerned about the sustainability of U.S. debt, leading to a shift in foreign exchange reserves towards gold [4]. - If emerging markets raise their gold reserves to match developed markets' levels, demand could increase by 15,000 tons, consuming approximately 4-5 years of global gold production [4][19]. Scenario 2: Collapse of Crypto Assets - Bitcoin faces potential threats from quantum computing and policy changes, which could lead to a significant decline in its value [5]. - A hypothetical 20% drop in Bitcoin's market value could result in a massive influx of capital into gold, potentially exhausting the market's liquidity [5][29]. Scenario 3: Shift in Reserve Currency - The dominance of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency may face structural challenges, with a projected decline in its share from 55% to 30% over the next decade [6]. - This shift could lead to an increase in global central bank gold purchases by approximately 30,000 tons, equivalent to 8-9 years of gold production [6][41]. Scenario 4: Escalation of Geopolitical Conflicts - In the event of global military conflicts, gold is expected to be revalued as a safe-haven asset, with historical precedents indicating significant price increases during such crises [7]. - The article posits that a 10% annual increase in global debt could lead to a substantial rise in gold prices, with a median estimate of $28,000 per ounce [7][52]. Scenario 5: Return to the Gold Standard - A return to a gold standard would fundamentally alter the monetary system, linking currency issuance to gold reserves and limiting excessive money printing [8]. - Under this scenario, the price of gold could reach a median estimate of $49,000 per ounce, driven by the need to back a significant amount of global debt with gold [8][58]. Group 3: Conclusion - The analysis suggests that gold may experience significant price increases in response to various extreme scenarios, highlighting its role as a hedge against systemic risks and currency instability [2][15].