炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 作者 | 方璐 来源 | 野马财经 增减之间，分寸拿捏。 一石激起千层浪。12月28日，小米（1810.HK）发布公告称，公司联合创始人、执行董事、副董事长林 斌计划自2026年12月开始，每12个月出售金额不超5亿美元的本公司B类普通股，累计出售金额不超过 20亿美元（约合人民币140亿元）。 140亿是什么概念？折算成港元大概是154.71亿港元，是小米创始人雷军此前斥资1亿港元增持的154 倍。这不是林斌首次减持小米股份，2024年6月，他因减持套现1亿港元（约合人民币9049.4万元）引发 外界对其违反减持承诺的热议。针对这次最新的减持计划，小米解释称，林斌减持计划所得款主要用于 成立投资基金公司，林斌对本集团业务前景充满信心并将长期服务于本集团。 提及林斌减持对小米的影响，香颂资本执行董事沈萌认为，二级市场股价将受减持消息影响承压，且小 米的解释不能打消市场对林斌巨额减持的担忧，且无论解释的原因是什么，结果都是有更多股票进入流 通市场，造成供给增加，对价格产生压力。 中国企业资本联盟副理事长、中国区首席经济学家柏文喜同样认为， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, Xiaomi achieved a record high profit with total revenue of 113.12 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 22.3% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 2.4%. Adjusted net profit reached 11.31 billion yuan, up 80.9% year-over-year and 4.4% quarter-over-quarter. The gross margin improved to 22.9%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-over-year and 0.4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2][4]. - The smart electric vehicle (EV) business reported its first quarterly profit, generating an operating income of 700 million yuan. In Q3 2025, the company delivered 109,000 new vehicles, with automotive revenue reaching 28.3 billion yuan and a gross margin of 25.5% [2][3]. - The smartphone and AIoT business remained stable, with smartphone revenue of 46 billion yuan and a global shipment of 43.3 million units, maintaining a market share of 13.6%. The newly launched Xiaomi 17 series saw a sales increase of approximately 30% in its first month [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 total revenue was 113.12 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit at 11.31 billion yuan. The gross margin was 22.9% [2][4]. - The company expects net profit for 2025-2027 to be 43 billion, 51.4 billion, and 62.3 billion yuan respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 82%, 19%, and 21% [4][5]. Business Segments - The smartphone segment generated 46 billion yuan in revenue, while the IoT and lifestyle products segment brought in 27.6 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 23.9% [3][4]. - The smart EV segment achieved a revenue of 28.3 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 25.5% [2][3]. Research and Development - R&D expenses reached 9.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 52.1%. The company continues to invest heavily in core technologies to enhance its ecosystem [3][4].

Core Points - Xiaomi has officially rolled out its 500,000th vehicle, marking a significant milestone in its automotive journey [1][3] - The company aims to deliver over 400,000 vehicles in 2025, indicating a shift towards large-scale production and consumer acceptance [3][11] Group 1: Milestone Achievement - The 500,000th vehicle was produced in just 1 year and 7 months, showcasing Xiaomi's rapid growth in the automotive sector [4][8] - CEO Lei Jun emphasized the importance of this milestone for Xiaomi, stating it signifies a new starting point for the company [9] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Xiaomi's revenue from its smart electric vehicle and AI segments reached 29 billion CNY, with 28.3 billion CNY coming from electric vehicles alone [11] - The company delivered 108,796 new vehicles in Q3 2025, setting a new historical record [11] Group 3: Future Plans and Challenges - Xiaomi plans to maintain a focus on safety and delivery, while also enhancing technological innovation and integrating AI with smart manufacturing [9][12] - The company anticipates challenges in 2026 due to reduced purchase tax subsidies and increased competition in the automotive industry [11]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi has officially rolled out its 500,000th vehicle, marking a significant milestone in its automotive journey, showcasing its capabilities in R&D, manufacturing, sales, delivery, and service [2][4][7]. Group 1: Milestone Achievement - The 500,000th vehicle was produced at Xiaomi's super factory in Beijing, indicating the company's entry into a new phase of scale [2]. - Xiaomi's founder Lei Jun expressed gratitude towards users, suppliers, and government support, emphasizing the achievement as a new starting point for the company [7]. Group 2: Future Plans and Commitments - Xiaomi aims to deliver over 400,000 vehicles in 2025, with a focus on safety, delivery, technological innovation, and the integration of AI and smart manufacturing [2][7]. - Lei Jun reiterated the importance of safety in vehicle design, addressing previous controversies regarding the company's priorities [7]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Xiaomi's revenue from its smart electric vehicle and AI segment reached 29 billion yuan, with the electric vehicle segment contributing 28.3 billion yuan [9]. - The company delivered 108,796 vehicles in Q3 2025, achieving a historical high, and plans to meet its annual delivery target of 350,000 vehicles [9][10]. Group 4: Market Position and Challenges - Xiaomi's YU7 series ranked first in the SUV sales chart in mainland China as of October 2025, with a growing presence in 402 sales outlets across 119 cities [9]. - The company anticipates challenges in 2026 due to reduced purchase tax subsidies and increased competition in the automotive industry [9].

Core Insights - Xiaomi Group reported a total revenue of 113.1 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.3%, exceeding the expected 112.5 billion yuan [2] - The group's operating profit for Q3 was 15.11 billion yuan, surpassing the forecast of 10.72 billion yuan, while net profit reached 12.27 billion yuan, exceeding the expected 9.62 billion yuan [2] - Adjusted net profit hit a record high of 11.3 billion yuan, marking an 80.9% year-on-year increase, against an expectation of 10.05 billion yuan [2] Revenue Breakdown - The "Mobile × AIoT" segment generated revenue of 84.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [2] - The "Smart Electric Vehicles and AI Innovation" segment achieved revenue of 29 billion yuan, a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 199.2% [2] - For the first time, the smart electric vehicle and AI innovation segment reported a quarterly operating profit of 700 million yuan, indicating a shift from loss to profit in Xiaomi's automotive business [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 was 22.9%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of 22.7% [2] - The gross margin for the automotive business rose to 25.5%, attributed to a decrease in core component costs, lower unit manufacturing costs due to economies of scale, and an increased delivery proportion of the Xiaomi YU7 series with a higher average selling price (ASP) [3] - The ASP for the automotive segment increased from 253,700 yuan to 260,100 yuan, reflecting the product structure upgrade [3]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's Q3 performance exceeded market expectations, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, marking a pivotal shift in its electric vehicle and AI business towards profitability [6][4]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 reached 1,131.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.3% but a slight quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.4% [2][4]. - Adjusted net profit was 113.1 billion RMB, a historical high, reflecting an 80.9% year-on-year growth [2][4]. - Gross margin improved to 22.9%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Cumulative revenue for the first three quarters was 3,404 billion RMB, representing a 32.5% year-on-year increase [2]. Automotive Business - Q3 revenue from the automotive sector was 283 billion RMB, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 197.9% and a 33.8% increase in delivery volume to 108,800 units, setting a new record [9][1]. - The automotive business achieved an operating profit of 7.00 billion RMB, marking its first profitable quarter [5][11]. - The gross margin for the automotive business rose to 25.5%, attributed to lower core component costs, reduced unit manufacturing costs due to scale effects, and an increased delivery share of the higher ASP Xiaomi YU7 series [12]. Research and Development - R&D expenditure in Q3 was 91 billion RMB, a 52.1% increase year-on-year, with a total of 235 billion RMB for the first three quarters [13]. - The number of R&D personnel reached a record high of 24,871 [13]. - Capital expenditure was 53.8 billion RMB, significantly exceeding the forecast of 20 billion RMB, indicating a strong commitment to innovation in electric vehicles and AI [14].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's Q3 performance exceeded market expectations, with significant year-on-year net profit growth and the electric vehicle and AI innovation businesses achieving operational profitability for the first time in a single quarter [1][4]. Financial Performance - Q3 total revenue reached 113.12 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.3% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.4% [2][3]. - Adjusted net profit was 11.31 billion RMB, marking a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 80.9% [2][3]. - Gross margin stood at 22.9%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Cumulative revenue for the first three quarters was 340.4 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.5% [2]. Core Business Progress - Smartphone shipments totaled 43.3 million units, marking nine consecutive quarters of year-on-year growth, with a global market share of 13.6%, maintaining a top-three ranking for 21 consecutive quarters [5]. - The electric vehicle and AI innovation business achieved operational profitability for the first time, generating 700 million RMB in profit, with a record delivery volume of 108,800 units [5][9]. - The AIoT platform connected devices surpassed 1 billion, reaching 1.036 billion, with monthly active users at 742 million [5]. - Internet services revenue hit a record high of 9.4 billion RMB, growing 10.8% year-on-year [5]. Automotive Business - Q3 revenue from the automotive business was 28.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 197.9%, with delivery volume up 33.8% from Q2, reaching a historical high [7][9]. - The automotive business achieved a gross margin of 25.5%, leading among new energy vehicle companies, attributed to lower core component costs, reduced unit manufacturing costs, and an increased share of higher average selling price (ASP) models [10]. Increased R&D Investment - Q3 R&D expenditure was 9.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 52.1%, with cumulative spending for the first three quarters at 23.5 billion RMB and a record number of R&D personnel at 24,871 [11]. - Capital expenditure was 5.38 billion RMB, significantly exceeding the expected 2 billion RMB [11]. - Xiaomi's strategic investments in AI and electric vehicles reflect a long-term commitment to enhancing technological competitiveness [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to maintain double-digit revenue growth over the next three years, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth. The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 24.17, 18.11, and 14.82 respectively, indicating a positive outlook for overall performance [3][12]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 227.25 billion RMB, a 38.2% increase from 164.39 billion RMB in the same period last year. The second quarter revenue reached 116 billion RMB, a 30.5% year-on-year growth, marking a historical high [12][13]. - The net profit for the first half of 2025 was 11.9 billion RMB, reflecting a 134.2% increase year-on-year. Adjusted net profit was 10.8 billion RMB, up 75.4% [12][13]. - The gross margin for the second quarter was 22.7%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by higher-margin businesses and improved production efficiency [13][14]. Business Development - The "Mobile × AIoT" segment generated revenue of 94.7 billion RMB in the second quarter, a 14.8% increase, accounting for 81.6% of total revenue. The IoT and lifestyle products segment saw revenue growth of 44.7% [15][17]. - The smart electric vehicle segment reported revenue of 21.3 billion RMB with a gross margin of 26.4%, indicating simultaneous growth in scale and profitability [18]. - The company’s R&D expenditure in the first half of 2025 was 14.475 billion RMB, a 41.2% increase, focusing on smart vehicle technology and AI model development [23]. Future Development and Summary - The company has successfully implemented its "people, vehicle, home ecosystem" strategy, enhancing user data and service integration across devices. The global layout leverages "China R&D + Global Manufacturing + Regional Delivery" advantages [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [4][7]. Core Insights - The innovative business segment is rapidly developing, with revenue from smart electric vehicles and AI reaching 21.3 billion yuan in Q2 2025, despite an operating loss of 300 million yuan. The Xiaomi YU7 series launched with over 240,000 units locked in within 18 hours, indicating strong demand [2]. - The overseas penetration of the smartphone business is increasing, with Q2 2025 smartphone revenue at 45.5 billion yuan and a gross margin of 11.5%. Global shipments reached 42.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with a market share of 14.7% [2]. - IoT and lifestyle product revenue reached a record high of 38.7 billion yuan in Q2 2025, growing 44.7% year-on-year, driven by demand for smart appliances and wearable products in mainland China [3]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts adjusted EPS for 2025-2027 to be 1.80, 2.32, and 2.99 yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 26.82, 20.88, and 16.19 respectively [4][6]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 483.38 billion yuan, 595.47 billion yuan, and 726.58 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.11%, 23.19%, and 22.02% [6][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 40.72 billion yuan in 2025 to 67.37 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 72.11% and 28.87% respectively [6][12]. Market Position - Xiaomi ranks among the top three global smartphone vendors, with significant market share increases in Southeast Asia, Europe, and Africa [2]. - The company is expected to leverage its high-end strategy and overseas expansion to drive steady growth in its smartphone business despite short-term margin pressures [2]. Strategic Outlook - The report expresses optimism regarding Xiaomi's high-end product strategy, the continuous development of AI technology and ecosystem, and the ongoing growth of its automotive business [4].

Core Insights - Xiaomi's automotive business achieved a record gross margin of 26.4% in Q2, driven by cost reductions and increased sales of high-end models [2][4] - The company reported revenue of 20.6 billion yuan from its smart electric vehicle segment, with a significant reduction in operating losses to 300 million yuan [2][4] - Xiaomi aims to achieve quarterly profitability in the second half of the year, although the timeline remains uncertain [2][4] Revenue and Profitability - In Q2, Xiaomi's revenue from the smart electric vehicle and AI innovation segment reached 21.3 billion yuan, up 14.4% from 18.6 billion yuan in Q1 [2][4] - The gross margin for the smart electric vehicle segment increased from 23.2% in Q1 to 26.4% in Q2, and from 15.4% in Q2 2024 [2][4] - The average selling price of Xiaomi's vehicles is approximately 250,000 yuan, contributing to higher gross margins [4] Product Development and Technology - Xiaomi launched the YU7 SUV series in June, achieving over 240,000 pre-orders within 18 hours [5] - The YU7 series features advanced technology, including an 800V silicon carbide high-voltage platform and a maximum range of 835 km [5] - The company is continuously updating its autonomous driving technology, with the SU7 series receiving significant performance upgrades [7] Brand Expansion and Market Strategy - Xiaomi plans to enter the European market by 2027, focusing on increasing brand awareness for its automotive division [8] - The brand has high recognition in Europe, with awareness levels exceeding 95%, particularly in countries like Spain [8] - The company is confident in building its automotive brand, drawing from its successful history in China [8] Robotics and Future Outlook - Xiaomi has invested in robotics for four to five years, particularly in humanoid robots for factory applications [9] - The company is currently working on achieving a business closure in its own factories, although it acknowledges the challenges ahead [10]